One thing at a time though. We're building a team and trying to get the best pieces that fit together. Fox/Bagley is a no brainer combo... They compliment each other well and Bagley appears to have tremendous upside to boot. Luka was a little more of a question mark with Fox and might not have the upside of Bagley. Not that we wouldn't want Luka on the Kings just that we only got to choose one of them.
Luka Doncic (the 'LET'S RE-LITIGATE THE PICK UNTO PERPETUITY~!' thread)
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I don’t think Bagley will be a better player than Doncic we questioned Doncic scoring and he’s already at 19ppg. We’re not at a place to pick how players fit over talent and I don’t think Fox/Doncic is a bad fit. Wings that can create for themselves and others and can play 2-4 are never available.
Also with fit I can argue Buddy, Bogie, Luka, and WCS fit better than with Bagley instead. Fox with his IQ would be able to fit in as well when he doesn’t have the ball
Also with fit I can argue Buddy, Bogie, Luka, and WCS fit better than with Bagley instead. Fox with his IQ would be able to fit in as well when he doesn’t have the ball
Fox/Doncic is not a good fit. We are running the floor with Bagley, and Fox isn’t strong as an off ball option or shooter. Fox/Bagley on paper are a better fit, and that played a role in why he was selected. Even if you think Doncic is the better player, fit played a role in the decision. If two prospects are close in talent on draft night, fit can play a decisive role in GM/coaches who want to win now.
Luka may have been at his best with Llull, but was Llull? I thought Luka became the focal point of the offense, which is the issue. Does it benefit an offense to have him as the main handler?
It’s a fine line, as Padrino said, between being a playmaker and someone who is going to command a central role in an offense. I’m not sure Luka’s skill set in the NBA warrants the latter on a very good team. I was pro Luka until I viewed a few of the last games which told me he might not work with Fox, Buddy, Bogi etc in a manor which didn’t obfuscate their roles in an offense. If he were just a playmaker who could play a sizable role off ball, I’d still be on board, just what I saw lately has been questionable
Luka may have been at his best with Llull, but was Llull? I thought Luka became the focal point of the offense, which is the issue. Does it benefit an offense to have him as the main handler?
It’s a fine line, as Padrino said, between being a playmaker and someone who is going to command a central role in an offense. I’m not sure Luka’s skill set in the NBA warrants the latter on a very good team. I was pro Luka until I viewed a few of the last games which told me he might not work with Fox, Buddy, Bogi etc in a manor which didn’t obfuscate their roles in an offense. If he were just a playmaker who could play a sizable role off ball, I’d still be on board, just what I saw lately has been questionable
The idea behind the Bagley pick is to maximize Fox's ability to push the pace by surrounding him with players who will run the floor and finish plays. We're left with a sizable gap in our rotation at the SF spot and the question of whether Bagley will be able to defend his position at a high enough level to be competitive in the playoffs, but those are long-term questions and regardless of who we picked at #2 we were going to be left with similar questions. If the team is able to retain their current ranks in Pace (5th) and Offensive Rating (13th) for the remainder of the season, I think the decision to pair Bagley and Fox will be viewed as a success. The real work of building this team though is going to come down to what happens next.
(1) Should we commit to a long-term contract for Cauley-Stein and if so, does he warrant a yearly salary befitting a starting center? It's probably going to be in the Jonas Valanciunas to Tristan Thompson range (approx. 16 million a year) adjusted up for the new salary cap so roughly 18 million on the high end or 15 million on the low end is a reasonable expectation. And you can bet his agent is going to be citing Myles Turner's new 18 million a year contract as his expectation.
(2) How are we going to address our SF problem? There will be cap space to spend but that can be a double-edged sword (New Orleans was in a similar situation when they gave Solomon Hill a $48 million dollar deal which looks worse and worse every year to cite just 1 recent example). Whoever we get needs to be able to push the pace, space the floor, and play passable defense. The list of guys who might be available to us and can do all of those things is very small.
(3) The remaining rookie contract dominoes start falling in 2020 with Hield, Mason, and Labissiere followed by Giles, Jackson, and Fox in 2021 and Bagley in 2022. It looks like we have a ton of cap space to spend next summer but if we're not careful we could lock ourselves into a situation like Washington has with no salary flexibility at all and questionable playoff prospects. Spend wisely!
As regards Doncic's performance so far, the focus on turnovers is a curious one to me considering the yearly list of players who lead the league in turnovers is consistently stuffed with All-Stars, MVP candidates, leading scorers, and just generally the players widely considered to be the best in the game. Players who dominate the ball and lead their team in scoring or assists are also going to turn the ball over a lot. While it's true that a 1:1 A/TO ratio is frighteningly low for a purported PG prospect, it's not uncommon for rookie PGs to struggle in that way. It's a team game and adjusting to new teammates and a new offense is inevitably going to produce a lot of miscues. As everyone becomes more familiar with the timing you would expect that stat to improve. And Doncic has also (somewhat unexpectedly) been asked to contribute as a leading scorer as well which only compounds the problem.
In the context of this discussion, it's doubly confusing though when you consider that Bagley's A/TO ratio is considerably worse early in the season. Dennis Smith Jr. is a scoring guard so matching him up with a playmaking wing makes sense on paper just like matching Fox up with a super athletic finisher like Bagley does. There's no way of knowing how Doncic would have fit on this team but he was a "gut-feeling" pick for me anyway -- I saw him as the player with the best balance of high-ceiling and reasonable expectation of attaining it (or at least getting close). The most logical fit for our team would have been Jaren Jackson Jr. because he checks the most boxes on both sides of the floor. Miles Bridges was my big draft crush this year -- I have a good feeling about his potential in the NBA -- but that pick would have been pretty eye-raising at #2 and trading down isn't always realistic. I will admit that Bagley was clearly the winner at #2 if you just go by the numbers. Time will tell if it plays out that way. My biggest concerns for him are all on the defensive end.
(1) Should we commit to a long-term contract for Cauley-Stein and if so, does he warrant a yearly salary befitting a starting center? It's probably going to be in the Jonas Valanciunas to Tristan Thompson range (approx. 16 million a year) adjusted up for the new salary cap so roughly 18 million on the high end or 15 million on the low end is a reasonable expectation. And you can bet his agent is going to be citing Myles Turner's new 18 million a year contract as his expectation.
(2) How are we going to address our SF problem? There will be cap space to spend but that can be a double-edged sword (New Orleans was in a similar situation when they gave Solomon Hill a $48 million dollar deal which looks worse and worse every year to cite just 1 recent example). Whoever we get needs to be able to push the pace, space the floor, and play passable defense. The list of guys who might be available to us and can do all of those things is very small.
(3) The remaining rookie contract dominoes start falling in 2020 with Hield, Mason, and Labissiere followed by Giles, Jackson, and Fox in 2021 and Bagley in 2022. It looks like we have a ton of cap space to spend next summer but if we're not careful we could lock ourselves into a situation like Washington has with no salary flexibility at all and questionable playoff prospects. Spend wisely!
As regards Doncic's performance so far, the focus on turnovers is a curious one to me considering the yearly list of players who lead the league in turnovers is consistently stuffed with All-Stars, MVP candidates, leading scorers, and just generally the players widely considered to be the best in the game. Players who dominate the ball and lead their team in scoring or assists are also going to turn the ball over a lot. While it's true that a 1:1 A/TO ratio is frighteningly low for a purported PG prospect, it's not uncommon for rookie PGs to struggle in that way. It's a team game and adjusting to new teammates and a new offense is inevitably going to produce a lot of miscues. As everyone becomes more familiar with the timing you would expect that stat to improve. And Doncic has also (somewhat unexpectedly) been asked to contribute as a leading scorer as well which only compounds the problem.
In the context of this discussion, it's doubly confusing though when you consider that Bagley's A/TO ratio is considerably worse early in the season. Dennis Smith Jr. is a scoring guard so matching him up with a playmaking wing makes sense on paper just like matching Fox up with a super athletic finisher like Bagley does. There's no way of knowing how Doncic would have fit on this team but he was a "gut-feeling" pick for me anyway -- I saw him as the player with the best balance of high-ceiling and reasonable expectation of attaining it (or at least getting close). The most logical fit for our team would have been Jaren Jackson Jr. because he checks the most boxes on both sides of the floor. Miles Bridges was my big draft crush this year -- I have a good feeling about his potential in the NBA -- but that pick would have been pretty eye-raising at #2 and trading down isn't always realistic. I will admit that Bagley was clearly the winner at #2 if you just go by the numbers. Time will tell if it plays out that way. My biggest concerns for him are all on the defensive end.
I agree that Jackson is in question, in regards to if the Kings should’ve went in another direction, and will be going forward. He arguably has more upside as a two way player and is arguably a better fit. On draft night though he had a considerably lower floor, to be fair to the FO. Bagley was much more accomplished/safer, and may still be
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I never thought he had a lower floor... His floor to me was Myles Turner. No way jjj isn't a solid pro at the least, at least imo. I wanted him badly at #2 but realized that for whatever reason he wasn't in our plans.
All that said Bagley has really surprised me in a good way. He has thru the roof upside with his size/athleticism/coordination combo. And his attitude is amazing. A few weeks into the season and I love the pick.
All that said Bagley has really surprised me in a good way. He has thru the roof upside with his size/athleticism/coordination combo. And his attitude is amazing. A few weeks into the season and I love the pick.
This may actually show some of the deficiencies of the simple On/Off, not just for small sample size, but also because it's not corrected for lineup. Bagley is playing primarily with a second unit that is doing very poorly (Giles in particular has been lousy) and should be expected to have a poor On/Off given how well the first unit is playing. Doncic is playing with the first unit, so the opposite expectation should be in play.
Some other advanced stats (at least at BBref) have Bagley outpacing Luka:
WS/48: Bagley 0.078, Doncic -0.021
BPM: Bagley -0.6, Doncic -4.1
ORtg: Bagley 106, Doncic 97
DRtg: Bagley 111, Doncic 117
Some other advanced stats (at least at BBref) have Bagley outpacing Luka:
WS/48: Bagley 0.078, Doncic -0.021
BPM: Bagley -0.6, Doncic -4.1
ORtg: Bagley 106, Doncic 97
DRtg: Bagley 111, Doncic 117
After watching him against NBA talent for the past two weeks, while I've been impressed I feel comfortable in saying that Luka would not have solved our SF hole problem. He's a unique player but his length and athleticism concerns kinda force him to be a slightly undersized PF in the NBA (unless working with an NBA training staff can help his mobility over the offseason/through his career). We're already sort of seeing what a guy with Luka's skills could do in our offense with Nemanja starting.
It's awesome and while I'm sure a lot of people would love that sort of skill at the 4 spot for 48 minutes a game, Bagley gives us a ridiculously good change of pace player as our first big off the bench with an utterly unquantifiable amount of potential.
Also the fact that Rick Carlisle (a guy often lauded as one of the top coaches in the league) still seems to have trouble figuring out how to best utilize Luka in the context of the rest of the team should give you pause.
You may wanna ask your other doncic fanboy. Apparently y'all already made up your mind about who's leading who to the playoff and who's stat padding even before preseason start. It's post like that really annoys me. You anoint one to be a superstar and one to be a bust even before the first game is play! In reality, it still too early to compare them and not sure if you can really compare them as they're two different type of player completely.
https://community.kingsfans.com/thr...ick-unto-perpetuity-thread.69450/post-1398225
https://community.kingsfans.com/thr...ick-unto-perpetuity-thread.69450/post-1398225
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Doncic has looked great so far. He's scoring the ball with the confidence and craft of a 10 year vet. His rebounding has been better than expected and his defense has been about what I thought it would be - good, smart team defender but slow laterally. Good move to have him guard opposing PFs most nights. His lower than expected assists and higher than expected turnovers have been surprising but I think in time he'll make the adjustments he needs. I'm not surprised that he's shooting 38% from three. I think part of that is benefiting from the greater space (and slightly lesser defensive attention on him) and I think part of that is that he just looked tired this last season. He'd played a lot of games for a teenager. And he may hit a wall again with the long NBA season, but in time I think he'll be a high 30%/low 40% shooter from outside.
All that said, I think part of the reason Luka isn't wearing a Kings jersey is that he and his agent wanted a bigger market. There were whispers about that being the case but I don't know that there was any concrete proof. I think Vlade is committed to drafting guys who want to play in Sacramento. I've criticized him for that in the past, but honestly, viewing the chemistry and team play we're watching right now, I can't say that his approach is wrong.
All that said, I think part of the reason Luka isn't wearing a Kings jersey is that he and his agent wanted a bigger market. There were whispers about that being the case but I don't know that there was any concrete proof. I think Vlade is committed to drafting guys who want to play in Sacramento. I've criticized him for that in the past, but honestly, viewing the chemistry and team play we're watching right now, I can't say that his approach is wrong.
I'm 100% certain that if we did draft Doncic, we wouldn't be seeing this type of "boom" by Fox so far. However, talent is talent and Doncic would fit in perfectly with the young Kings. If the Kings weren't 5-3 right now, there would be a lot of fans mad about Bagley vs. Doncic. Bagley looks solid with promise, but Doncic looks like a legitimate star right out of the gates AND he fulfills the greatest need on our team at SF.
However, I think it's a bit too early to say we screwed up by passing on him. Bagley looks special in his own right, but let's hope he starts to show a little bit more. I know he can be better than what we've seen so far.
However, I think it's a bit too early to say we screwed up by passing on him. Bagley looks special in his own right, but let's hope he starts to show a little bit more. I know he can be better than what we've seen so far.
Yeah maybe.
For too many years, we've been at the point where we need another good player or 2 before we can even think about being relevant. This would be an essential discussion in that scenario. I think we have enough players right now to be relevant with a little more growth, and so I think it's time to see what this team can do. Some success could also make this an attractive situation to free agents that wouldn't consider this team at all right now.
With Doncic I think we'd need to adjust the roster because we'd need another big. After that, maybe. I want to see what we have right now.
For too many years, we've been at the point where we need another good player or 2 before we can even think about being relevant. This would be an essential discussion in that scenario. I think we have enough players right now to be relevant with a little more growth, and so I think it's time to see what this team can do. Some success could also make this an attractive situation to free agents that wouldn't consider this team at all right now.
With Doncic I think we'd need to adjust the roster because we'd need another big. After that, maybe. I want to see what we have right now.
Dennis Smith Jr. has a down start this season. Some Dallas observer points this as the Luka effect on a ball dominant PG. Of last year's draft, Dennis Smith Jr., is the guy I would consider relative to Fox kind of offense. DSJ just dunks a lot that Fox.
So I think if Luka was here, Joerger will have a hard time on the playbook. And we won't be seeing this 6-3 season start.
So I think if Luka was here, Joerger will have a hard time on the playbook. And we won't be seeing this 6-3 season start.
As a pro-Luka supporter leading up to the draft, I gotta say that I'm starting to see the brilliance behind the Marvin Bagley selection.
The kid isn't starting or even getting starters minutes, yet is still making a nice impact while getting his feet wet. He's top 3-4 in most rookie categories despite not getting the same minutes. That says something to me.
If he can average 13/7 in 23 minutes per now, what might he do once he gets things figured out and earns a lot more time? He's even hit 5 of 9 on 3 point attempts, which shows the potential there. And the Euro step move he made for a transition layup was crazy. Add that to the offensive rebounding and quick jump ability he has and I think he has much greater upside than Luka or anyone else in that draft.
The kid isn't starting or even getting starters minutes, yet is still making a nice impact while getting his feet wet. He's top 3-4 in most rookie categories despite not getting the same minutes. That says something to me.
If he can average 13/7 in 23 minutes per now, what might he do once he gets things figured out and earns a lot more time? He's even hit 5 of 9 on 3 point attempts, which shows the potential there. And the Euro step move he made for a transition layup was crazy. Add that to the offensive rebounding and quick jump ability he has and I think he has much greater upside than Luka or anyone else in that draft.
I don't think we would be running the offense through Doncic this year anyway. It would still be Fox's ball as he's already spent an entire year learning how to run the offense. Doncic would either be in the Bjelica role in a smallish lineup or, more likely, he would be replacing Shumpert in the starting lineup as a spot-up shooter and secondary playmaker. We already discussed this at length in this thread before the draft. The main point of contention was whether having another playmaker next to Fox would detract from Fox's effectiveness or simply make us a better passing team overall. We'll see a version of this when Bogdanovic comes back if he slides into the SF spot to keep Buddy on the floor. There's really no way to know of course until you try it, but personally I think it's much ado about nothing. Having multiple guys on the court who can pass and shoot is rarely a problem. Having multiple guys on the floor who can only create out of isolation is.
The main problem I can see if we had picked Doncic instead is that we'd be pressed into playing either Giles or Labissiere a lot more minutes per game before Koufos got healthy. That or we'd have used some of that cap space to sign another frontcourt player? It's a whole other eventuality which would have resulted in different roster decisions in the off-season. Just as we don't know that the team would have been better with Doncic on it, we also don't know that it would have been worse. It just would have been different.
The main problem I can see if we had picked Doncic instead is that we'd be pressed into playing either Giles or Labissiere a lot more minutes per game before Koufos got healthy. That or we'd have used some of that cap space to sign another frontcourt player? It's a whole other eventuality which would have resulted in different roster decisions in the off-season. Just as we don't know that the team would have been better with Doncic on it, we also don't know that it would have been worse. It just would have been different.
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