Let's Talk Fox...

#31
I wish people would stop with the strawman arguments on here. Just because someone says that Fox is not playing well, doesn't mean that their expectation is for him to play like Mitchell.

It's not about being positive or negative. Look at the advanced stats on the guy and then compare them to other rookie PGs at his age and you're going to be hard pressed to find very many players who have been as bad as him and then developed into good players.

Searching through some recent stats, Dennis Schroder, Zach LaVine, Norris Cole, Emmanual Mudiay, Austin Rivers, Shane Larkin, Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack are the only guys I've seen so far that have had rookie seasons even comparable to Fox's. Mudiay's is the only one that is truly comparable. My eyes tell me he's bad, even for a rookie, but the analytical data tells me he's really really bad. If you looked at Dennis Smith Jr's regular stats you'd say he's having a comparable season to Fox but the advanced stats say he's been much much better.

Basically DSJ has to take 3 steps to become Damien Lillard while Fox has to take about 9 steps to get there. I'm not saying that Fox will never become a good player. There are a couple good players in that list I posted above, but the odds of him reaching that level are very low because if you search you'll find a handful of bad players for every one good player you find that were as bad as Fox their rookie seasons. Plus I was just searching for decent named guys that are still in the league. I'm sure you'd find way more no name guys who washed out if you looked harder.
Huh?

https://www.basketball-reference.co...kina&y4=2018&player_id4=ntilila01&idx=players


Other than Mitchell, all the rookie PG's have been pretty bad overall. Lonzo been actually pretty good on defense, but his offense, particularly his scoring and ball-security, has been trash. But what in those numbers tells you DSJ is 3 steps from Dame while Fox is 9?

I'm not saying he's been good, because he hasn't been. But you can't ignore the context of him being a 20 year old PG as one of the youngest players in the NBA on a bad team. Mitchell went to one of the most ideal spots a young guard could land: great coach, really good veteran-leadership and defense behind him, quality veteran-playmaking PG to take the pressure off and the opportunity/minutes to be the man and figure out his game in the NBA. Not saying the dude isn't a stud, but Fox, Lonzo, DSJ and Frank all would look and play significantly better on the Jazz this year too.
 
#32
Huh?

https://www.basketball-reference.co...kina&y4=2018&player_id4=ntilila01&idx=players


Other than Mitchell, all the rookie PG's have been pretty bad overall. Lonzo been actually pretty good on defense, but his offense, particularly his scoring and ball-security, has been trash. But what in those numbers tells you DSJ is 3 steps from Dame while Fox is 9?

I'm not saying he's been good, because he hasn't been. But you can't ignore the context of him being a 20 year old PG as one of the youngest players in the NBA on a bad team. Mitchell went to one of the most ideal spots a young guard could land: great coach, really good veteran-leadership and defense behind him, quality veteran-playmaking PG to take the pressure off and the opportunity/minutes to be the man and figure out his game in the NBA. Not saying the dude isn't a stud, but Fox, Lonzo, DSJ and Frank all would look and play significantly better on the Jazz this year too.
Ya I don’t think he’s watched DSJ play I watched him a couple times and I’d take Fox over him everyday
 
#33
I don't like what I see and I'm not an instant gratification guy.
It's perfectly fine for you not to like what you see after 1 year. But that doesn't mean FOX won't develop into a really good player.

Too many things need to go right in order for him to become a good player.
You mean, improvement? That's never happened before, has it?

If I can get Doncic with Fox/our pick, I'm doing it.
So you trade him for another unknown that you have no idea will develop either. That makes sense.

Don't get me wrong, I like Doncic too. Just like I liked FOX heading into last draft. But he's no more of a sure thing.

What happens if/when Doncic underwhelms his rookie season too? You gonna wanna trade him for another prospect the next season too?

What the hell happened to patience? Most draft picks take a season or two to develop. PG's sometimes take longer.

Bogdanovic hasn't exactly lit the world on fire his rookie season either, especially for a player of his age and pro experience. Are Kings fans giving up on him too?
 
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gunks

Hall of Famer
#34
It's perfectly fine for you not to like what you see after 1 year. But that doesn't mean FOX won't develop into a really good player.



You mean, improvement? That's never happened before, has it?



So you trade him for another unknown that you have no idea will develop either. That makes sense.

Don't get me wrong, I like Doncic too. Just like I liked FOX heading into last draft. But he's no more of a sure thing.

What happens if/when Doncic underwhelms his rookie season too? You gonna wanna trade him for another prospect the next season too?

What the hell happened to patience? Most draft picks take a season or two to develop. PG's sometimes take longer.

Bogdanovic hasn't exactly lit the world on fire his rookie season either, especially for a player of his age and pro experience. Are Kings fans giving up on him too?
Bogs has flashed way more than Fox.

If we can get Doncic for Fox and pick 8 (or wherever) you do it. He's 10x the prospect Fox is (ok, slight hyperbole) and honestly I'd say he's more proven with what he's done overseas compared to Fox's weak rookie year.

I do agree with you that we should be patient though! And I'm by no means writing Fox off as a bust. I just don't see him as a future franchise cornerstone, even if all breaks right for him. He should by no means be considered untouchable as far as trades go.
 
#35
Yep. That guy.

Your assertion that his being part of a title team somehow means something is ridiculous. Derek Fisher was part of 5 title teams yet never averaged more than 13 points and 4 assists. Dude was a role player. Lots of role players have titles. You're skirting the point that Jason Williams shot out of a cannon his rookie season and looked to be all world, but never lived up to the potential.

After 1 season, Tyreke Evans looked like a better draft pick than Steph Curry. But how'd that look after 3-4 seasons and now?



You're making some really poor arguments.

Nash may have went to a small school, but he was a top 15 pick for a reason. Furthermore, he was playing against top flight competition his first few years in the NBA wasn't he? It still took him til year 5 to show something significant.

AAU is not top flight competition. They're may be some good players there, but most never reach the NBA. Fox is still really green with only 1 season of college and now 1 year of NBA experience.

Comparing any player to the exceptions that hit the ground running is flawed. Players develop at different rates.

Jason Kidd didn't destroy his 1st season in the NBA. But he turned out pretty good, didn't he?
How about Mike Conley, Tony Parker? Mike Bibby? Kevin Johnson? The list can go on and on.

The crux of the point is, nobody knows FOX's future after year 1. He could turn out to be a disappointment or he could still meet or exceed his potential.

i like that you included kevin johnson in your list.

and i want to make it clear that i don't think fox sucks.

if i thought he sucked, i'd say, "woe is us - we'll never get anything for the bum"

but on the contrary, i think he could develop into a premier starting guard.

and whereas a month ago, i would have said that mason was having the better season, i now think that they have both played about the same - which actually favors fox, since he is four years younger.

what i AM saying is that this is akin to cleveland drafting mark price as an undersized second rounder and then (the folloing year) kevin johnson as a lottery pick (7th?).

and cleveland immediately (midseason) made the decision to trade the guy with a higher value/upside because they needed more in the frontcourt and johnson brought them larry nance - which price would not have done.

price probably turned out to be better than they had hoped - or maybe they saw it before they made the trade. but that trade made both teams a lot better.

if you DON'T trade fox, you probably lose mason as a contributor (just not enough minutes to go around).

don nelson used to say that he could always find a decent point guard somewhere other than the lottery and he considered other positions more important. he finally got tim hardaway with pick #14. take a look at timbug's first year stats: 33+ minutes, 14.7 points, 8.7 assists.

not that a point guard MUST tear up the league in his first season, but the ones that do so usually continue to succeed.

de'arron fox was the FIFTH pick and he has underachieved.

you cn say, "but he is only 20" and it would be interesting to discuss whether guys who play aau ball from 6th grade on nowadays are more prepared/less prepared that guys who play four years college back in the day. point is, "it isn't age neccessarrily - it is more depth and quality of experience".

if frank mason had come in like a house afire and wowed the league (and if his trade value was higher), i'd say "trade mason".

but i think both have proven they can play and there is really only room for one of them.

the only reason i say "trade fox" is because we have four other quality guards, three who can play the point.

now i don't know - maybe no one WOULD give s lottery value for fox. but i would test the market (if you could do it without word getting out: "Fox On Trading Block").

becuse i see nothing but question marks in our frontcourt.

Giles?
Willie?
Skal?
Justin?

whereas Bogi and Buddy are keepers and I believe that as part of a group of four (including temple here) that mason is adequate. I would still play a backcourt of buddy/bogi down the stretch (unless you needed temple's defense) , but i think frank would be happy starting (buddy being better used as instant offense off the bench).

If I thought our bigs were decent, i would not suggest trading fox. and i would not be unhappy if fox took his new team to the playoffs 11 straight years (as kj did). i simply think we need a trade that is "best for both teams". i am not sure who we could get (i would prefer a proven player rather than another gamble), but if we get someone the quality of larry nance, well, i'm good with that.

i look at the kawhai leonard situation in san antonio and wonder if he is going to sign a max ontract there (not sure of the diff - but they can offer more). if they are gun-shy and we could take on that big money (we certainly have the cap room), i would be fine sending fox and our #1 to the spurs for kawahi (sign and trade?) and patty mills or maybe bertrans.

not bcause i am down on fox. but because with no 2019 first round pick, it really looks like this offseason is when we finish assembling the team for the next five-ten years.

now, if we think we have failed with this rebuild and really only have three guards to show for it, ok then, tread water for a couple of ears, keep fox (buddy and bogi) and try again.

-------------------------------------------------

adding this:

jason kidd was referenced as unproductive in his first year, so i looked up his stats:

33.8 minutes in 79 starts... 11.7 ppg, 7.7 assists, 5.4 rebounds

uh - i'll take that

following year: 81 starts, 37mpg, 16.6ppg, , 9.8apg, 6.8 rpg - does anyone think fox will hit those marks next year?

don't all raise your hands at once.

oh, but kidd was 21 in his first season (turned 22 in late march of rookie season). fox was only 20.

same poster mentioned steve nash - apples to oranges (see favre-rodgers nfl)

nash was stuck BEHIND kidd for his first two years (total starts: 11)

you need better examples
 
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#36
Bogs has flashed way more than Fox.

If we can get Doncic for Fox and pick 8 (or wherever) you do it. He's 10x the prospect Fox is (ok, slight hyperbole) and honestly I'd say he's more proven with what he's done overseas compared to Fox's weak rookie year.

I do agree with you that we should be patient though! And I'm by no means writing Fox off as a bust. I just don't see him as a future franchise cornerstone, even if all breaks right for him. He should by no means be considered untouchable as far as trades go.
No team is trading down from Ayton/Doncic it’s not realistic.

In fact the only team I see giving up a top 8 pick for Fox would be Cleveland and the only way we’d trade Fox is if we got Young. I’d love a Young/Bogdan/Bridges future but I don’t see us trading Fox
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#37
No team is trading down from Ayton/Doncic it’s not realistic.

In fact the only team I see giving up a top 8 pick for Fox would be Cleveland and the only way we’d trade Fox is if we got Young. I’d love a Young/Bogdan/Bridges future but I don’t see us trading Fox
I agree, just jumping on the hypotheticals.

The GM who trades Ayton or Doncic for Fox/Bridges would probably get fired faster than you can say Vlade Divac!

(Get it? Cause Vlade always trades down!)
 
#38
Jamal murray, Kris dunn, kyle lowry, and mike conley all had terrible rookie seasons too. All things considered, I actually don't think foxs has been that bad for a 20 year old twig who supposedly had no jump shot at all.
None of those guys were statistically as bad as Fox their rookie seasons.

Huh?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Lonzo+Ball&player_id1_select=Lonzo+Ball&y1=2018&player_id1=balllo01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id2_select=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&y2=2018&player_id2=smithde03&idx=players&player_id3_hint=De'Aaron+Fox&player_id3_select=De'Aaron+Fox&y3=2018&player_id3=foxde01&idx=players&player_id4_hint=Frank+Ntilikina&player_id4_select=Frank+Ntilikina&y4=2018&player_id4=ntilila01&idx=players


Other than Mitchell, all the rookie PG's have been pretty bad overall. Lonzo been actually pretty good on defense, but his offense, particularly his scoring and ball-security, has been trash. But what in those numbers tells you DSJ is 3 steps from Dame while Fox is 9?

I'm not saying he's been good, because he hasn't been. But you can't ignore the context of him being a 20 year old PG as one of the youngest players in the NBA on a bad team. Mitchell went to one of the most ideal spots a young guard could land: great coach, really good veteran-leadership and defense behind him, quality veteran-playmaking PG to take the pressure off and the opportunity/minutes to be the man and figure out his game in the NBA. Not saying the dude isn't a stud, but Fox, Lonzo, DSJ and Frank all would look and play significantly better on the Jazz this year too.
Ok, look at their VORP (value over replacement player). Ball is effective. DSJ is what you would expect from a lottery rookie. Ntilikina is bad (which was to be expected for a project) and Fox is the worst of the bunch. Look how much worse his VORP is than DSJ's. He's basically bottom of the league while DSJ is closer to average.

I'm not ignoring the context of him being a rookie at all because I'm comparing him to other players rookie seasons. You can ignore the data if you want but the odds of him becoming a good player are low when you compare his rookie seasons to other players rookie seasons. You have to compare them to players that have developed into good players, not his fellow rookies because you don't know what they're going to wind up being in the end. But you do know what players from years past wound up as, so you need to compare those statistics.

Ya I don’t think he’s watched DSJ play I watched him a couple times and I’d take Fox over him everyday
I've followed him enough to know that he is more than likely going to be much better than Fox in the end. He flashes complete games while Fox flashes plays here and there. DSJ has some really bad games but he also has had a handful of really good games while Fox has only had a few. DSJ's ceiling is much higher.

It's perfectly fine for you not to like what you see after 1 year. But that doesn't mean FOX won't develop into a really good player.



You mean, improvement? That's never happened before, has it?



So you trade him for another unknown that you have no idea will develop either. That makes sense.

Don't get me wrong, I like Doncic too. Just like I liked FOX heading into last draft. But he's no more of a sure thing.

What happens if/when Doncic underwhelms his rookie season too? You gonna wanna trade him for another prospect the next season too?

What the hell happened to patience? Most draft picks take a season or two to develop. PG's sometimes take longer.

Bogdanovic hasn't exactly lit the world on fire his rookie season either, especially for a player of his age and pro experience. Are Kings fans giving up on him too?
Did you actually read and digest my posts? The whole point of the post was that players as bad as Fox during their rookie years don't normally turn out to be very good players. I didn't just start watching basketball yesterday, I know that players take time to develop. I don't know how many times I have to repeat it but he has a huge hole that he has to climb out of to even be average. Most players don't climb out of that hole and when they do, they wind up being the Shelvin Macks and Ish Smiths of the world.

I'm looking at data while people are just going off the notion that all players develop because of....reasons. If I don't think Fox will wind up being any better than say, Ish Smith, and another team is willing to trade me the pick that lands Doncic, I'm going to do it right now because I personally think Fox's value is going to drop further and further, even if he improves because I don't think he's ever going to improve enough to equal the value he has right now as a semi unknown prospect. I would let some other team roll the dice on him developing because they think that's what young players are all supposed to do. I'm personally going to look at the data and go with the odds of him not developing and make my decision based on that.

It's the Ben McLemore factor. The Willie Cauley Stein factor. The Thomas Robinson factor. They had good/decent value at one point while people still banked on them developing into superb players. McLemore's value dropped to zero and WCS has obviously dropped quite a bit because we weren't the only ones hoping he would be a rim protector. The smart play was trading Thomas Robinson because we landed Patrick Patterson in that deal. The Kings didn't believe in him so they got something of value for him. If you look at TRob's career transactions, he was continually traded for less and less until finally he was just released and not signed. That's what happens when you hold on to bad players for too long.

So yes I would trade Fox for an unknown in Doncic and if Doncic was as bad as Fox has been this year, I would trade him for the next unknown and I would do it until something sticks because I wouldn't believe in them being able to improve enough to become players that could lead the Kings into the playoffs.

For the record, after their rookie seaons, I would have traded McLemore, TRob, Fredette, Hawes and maybe Stauskas. I thought Nik would wind up being better than BMac but that didn't happen. I actually had an argument with a friend about BMac only one month into his NBA career because I thought he was one of the worst players I've ever seen. On the other hand, I would have kept Thompson, WCS, Skal, Malachi, and Papa for development. I would have traded the first group of guys for just about anything another team would give us. I wouldn't do that with Fox because he has better tools but I would definitely trade him for Doncic and our pick because I think it's a long shot that he will ever be a good point guard and that opinion is not just based on absolutely nothing. It's based on data.
 
#39
It's too early to give up on Fox, but he's on notice to come back markedly improved next year in both strength/weight, shot selection, shooting %, getting into the paint vs. settling for jumpers, increased Assist %, lower turnover % and rebounding. Yeah... he's got quite a lot to work on, and the brutal facts are, with a PER of 11.22 and the aforementioned issues, he's a disappointment for a top 5 pick thus far.

Looking at his numbers when compared to other PGs, he's a combo guard who settles for far too many midrange jumpers but doesn't make many of them. You can live with a combo guard if they can score - and score efficiently - and build around that talent accordingly. He thus far, can not score efficiently:
  • The midrange problem: He's taking more midrange shots than 91% of the PGs in the league but is in the bottom 3rd (28%) in accuracy. He should be going into the paint more, but 32% of his shots are taken there (was 55% in college) as his lack of strength prevents him from getting to the basket...thus he settles for jumpers.
  • Three point shooting: we all knew this going in, but it hasn't gotten much better. Hovering at 30% with two attempts per game, he'll need to bring this above the Antoine Walker level (33% or above) next season.
  • Let's say he never fixes his jumper, maybe he can become a better PG vs a combo? There's lots of room to improve:
  • His assist rate of 24% is in the bottom 28% for PGs in the league
  • If he can't improve his passing, he needs to cut turnovers, currently at 14.8%.
  • He's sporting a nasty 1.87 A/TO ratio. You want a true starting PG to possess at least a 2:1 ratio.
  • Keep in mind, he's never been more than a combo guard... so we might want to set expectations accordingly. This ain't J-Will boys and girls.
Defensively, there's some plusses and big holes:
  • he's a good shotblocker for a PG, with a block rate of 0.6%
  • he's average in terms of steals (1.5%) good for 43% of all PGs. Not bad for a rookie who needs to gain 30 lbs.
  • he's fouling too often, good for bottom 3rd of the league, but chalk this up as a good thing (effort) and not a worry (when compared to steal rate and the fact he's a rookie).
  • his lack of rebounding is a big problem: he's in the bottom 3rd of all PGs in both offensive and defensive rebounding. It's not like someone is stealing rebounds from him, this is a poor rebounding team! Adding strength and effort will be key here.
Health will be another factor... other than freak accidents which can derail careers, or players who don't put in enough consistent effort in their diet and exercise: skinny guys simply have a shorter shelf life.

Right now, Fox is playing like a fringe backup. His passing and shooting haven't drastically improved throughout his up-and-down season. This offseason - and next - is absolutely crucial to his career and hopes of becoming a true starting guard. Adding strength and weight this offseason will be of the utmost importance... and not that Kristaps Porzingis "I didn't gain much weight but added a lot of strength!" baloney, actual muscle that can last through the season. This will help his ability to get to the line and not settle for jumpers, defend larger guards, and rebound better. Then, he needs to keep working on his jumper, and watch film/get more reps to become a better passer who takes care of the ball.

Honestly, I think Fox will round out to be a good player in time if he puts the right work in. As a fan, I'm very hopeful - and nervous - about the kind of offseason that he puts in, as it's crucial that - given our lack of assets and high draft pick/no draft pick next summer - he maximizes his potential.
My issue with folks taking rookie stats at face value is when they just look at what is going on, and not the why, much less the how they might get better. This post takes that next step. Nice work.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#40
It's too early to give up on Fox, but he's on notice to come back markedly improved next year in both strength/weight, shot selection, shooting %, getting into the paint vs. settling for jumpers, increased Assist %, lower turnover % and rebounding. Yeah... he's got quite a lot to work on, and the brutal facts are, with a PER of 11.22 and the aforementioned issues, he's a disappointment for a top 5 pick thus far.

Looking at his numbers when compared to other PGs, he's a combo guard who settles for far too many midrange jumpers but doesn't make many of them. You can live with a combo guard if they can score - and score efficiently - and build around that talent accordingly. He thus far, can not score efficiently:
  • The midrange problem: He's taking more midrange shots than 91% of the PGs in the league but is in the bottom 3rd (28%) in accuracy. He should be going into the paint more, but 32% of his shots are taken there (was 55% in college) as his lack of strength prevents him from getting to the basket...thus he settles for jumpers.
  • Three point shooting: we all knew this going in, but it hasn't gotten much better. Hovering at 30% with two attempts per game, he'll need to bring this above the Antoine Walker level (33% or above) next season.
  • Let's say he never fixes his jumper, maybe he can become a better PG vs a combo? There's lots of room to improve:
  • His assist rate of 24% is in the bottom 28% for PGs in the league
  • If he can't improve his passing, he needs to cut turnovers, currently at 14.8%.
  • He's sporting a nasty 1.87 A/TO ratio. You want a true starting PG to possess at least a 2:1 ratio.
  • Keep in mind, he's never been more than a combo guard... so we might want to set expectations accordingly. This ain't J-Will boys and girls.
Defensively, there's some plusses and big holes:
  • he's a good shotblocker for a PG, with a block rate of 0.6%
  • he's average in terms of steals (1.5%) good for 43% of all PGs. Not bad for a rookie who needs to gain 30 lbs.
  • he's fouling too often, good for bottom 3rd of the league, but chalk this up as a good thing (effort) and not a worry (when compared to steal rate and the fact he's a rookie).
  • his lack of rebounding is a big problem: he's in the bottom 3rd of all PGs in both offensive and defensive rebounding. It's not like someone is stealing rebounds from him, this is a poor rebounding team! Adding strength and effort will be key here.
Health will be another factor... other than freak accidents which can derail careers, or players who don't put in enough consistent effort in their diet and exercise: skinny guys simply have a shorter shelf life.

Right now, Fox is playing like a fringe backup. His passing and shooting haven't drastically improved throughout his up-and-down season. This offseason - and next - is absolutely crucial to his career and hopes of becoming a true starting guard. Adding strength and weight this offseason will be of the utmost importance... and not that Kristaps Porzingis "I didn't gain much weight but added a lot of strength!" baloney, actual muscle that can last through the season. This will help his ability to get to the line and not settle for jumpers, defend larger guards, and rebound better. Then, he needs to keep working on his jumper, and watch film/get more reps to become a better passer who takes care of the ball.

Honestly, I think Fox will round out to be a good player in time if he puts the right work in. As a fan, I'm very hopeful - and nervous - about the kind of offseason that he puts in, as it's crucial that - given our lack of assets and high draft pick/no draft pick next summer - he maximizes his potential.
Nice, well-thought out assessment. :)
 
#41
I am surprised that no one but myself wants to trade Fox for an established player. Everyone wants to trade him for another unknown (well, those that DO want to trade him).

Prospects are gambles.

Established players are what they are - established.

We have a team FULL of gambles, Giles being the one currently that everyone wants to dream about.

Bogi is very good - a gamble that seems to have panned out (I will judge that long term by how good Sabonis becomes, relative to Bogi and Skal - at the time, I wanted Sabonis with our 8th pick, but we traded down to 13 and he was taken at 11).

Skal is/was a gamble that I hardly think will pay off - but if he studies tape of Kevin Garnett, maybe.

Buddy is a gamble with a limited payoff - he can score as first guard off the bench, but can he guard other starting guards? We shall see.

Willie is a gamble that I think more of than others here.

Justin Jackson is a gamble that I don't see as being a starter long term - that is probably the position we draft for this year (I would rather take Bagley, but that might be seen as a sign that we don't REALLY believe in Giles OR Willie).

Frank Mason is a gamble that pays off because the investment (2nd rounder, undersized) was fairly small.

Other than Bogi (big maybe), who is our future star, the go-to player who gets the calls?

MAYBE Bogi (I liked the way he went to each official and shook hands and introduced himself just before the center jump while other players were saying hello to opponents they knew or joking among themselves before the toss - but he seemed to stop doing that after calls continued to go against him, especially fouls called on him that were not really fouls because "The stars get the calls" and he adopted this look of "OK - now I know it's not about talent or positioning or playing well but instead it is about 'Who are you and what's your rep/status?' and I am nobody - yet" - I realize that I am indulging in mind-reading again, but that is what I see from his newly acquired resigned, forced smile/wince - think Peter Boyle in his X-Files episode).

At SOME point, you have to bite the bullet and overpay for a star who gets the calls when the game is on the line.

Which is why I hated the Cousins trade because we gave UP that guy.

If there is a chance that the Spurs will let Leonard walk rather than pay him $220 million, we should be first in line offering Fox and our pick and getting Leonard and a second lesser player (Mills or Bertran). But I am not sure what the rule is to sign and trade a max cap guy.

Because this team is going nowhere without a player who can be counted on to get to the line in the clutch.

Or maybe we will be happy being Miami, but even they had to swallow hard and take back Wade, for reasons like this:

http://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0021701141&eventNum=1058

(i tried to find Wade's infamous game - as a member of the Bulls - from 2/6/17, but for some reason, it is now missing from that date of the referees two minute report, even though the score was tied at 107 before Wade worked the refs for the last 5 points of the contest. If someone else can find it, kudos to you in advance).

Granted, Buddy is getting away with murder and his rebounding stats reflects it (although this one didn't come his way), but unless he drives to the hoop more, he won't get to the line when the game is decided:

http://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0021701167&eventNum=1019

btw, Omri Caspi also can't drive to the hoop, so, he isn't "that guy", but if Vlade is serious about "culture", he should be calling Omri's agent this morning and offering at least a 4 day contract.

wow - i just learned something and found something.

here is what i found:

http://official.nba.com/player-footwork/

what i learned, although not specifically stated in these words, is that two steps are allowed after gathering the ball, but (this is not actually SAID in exactly this way), if you release the ball (pass or shot) before the foot comes down on what would be a THIRD step, it's not a travel.

all this time, i thought the ball had to be out of the player's hand before the SECOND foot came down.

now i have to examine fox's hippity hop drives to the hoop again - previously, i thought he was always travelling.

(the other thing i learned is that the first step (after gathering the ball) can NOT be "with the same foot" (that the player was on while establishing the "gather"), so, no hopping on the first step.

Interestingly, this video also changes my opinion about "Harden always travels" - note the use of Harden/Curry as an example.
 
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#42
None of those guys were statistically as bad as Fox their rookie seasons.
Per 36 numbers just to be fair

Fox: 14.9ppg/3.5rpg/5.7apg/1.8spg/3 TOpg 41% fg

Murray: 16.6ppg/4.4rpg/3.5apg/1.0spg/2.3 TOpg 40% fg
Dunn: 7.9ppg/4.5rpg/5.1apg/2.1spg/2.4 TOpg 38% fg
Lowry: 11.5ppg/6.4rpg/6.6apg/2.9spg/2.5 TOpg 37% fg
Mike Conley: 13.0ppg/3.6rpg/5.8apg/1.1spg/2.3TOpg 43% fg
Westbrook: 16.9ppg/5.4rpg/5.9apg/1.5spg/3.7TOpg 40% fg
Jeff Teague: 11.4ppg/3.4rpg/6.1apg/1.7spg/2.5Topg/ 40% fg
Kemba: 16.1ppg/4.7rpg/5.8apg/1.2spg/2.4TOpg 37% fg
Dragic: 12.2ppg/5.1rpg/5.5apg/1.4spg/3.6TOpg 39% fg
Dennis Smith: 18.4ppg/4.6rpg/6.2apg/1.2spg/3.4TOpg 39% fg

All of these guys are statistically similar to Fox so stop having an agenda. With the exception of a few point gods like Steph, Kyrie, CP3, Wall, Ben Simmons, and Dame Lillard, almost every NBA starting pg has struggled pretty heavily in their rookie season. It just comes with the position. If we are still having this convo next year then we can start to become concerned. Right now Fox is pretty par for the course.
 
#43
Per 36 numbers just to be fair

Fox: 14.9ppg/3.5rpg/5.7apg/1.8spg/3 TOpg 41% fg

Murray: 16.6ppg/4.4rpg/3.5apg/1.0spg/2.3 TOpg 40% fg
Dunn: 7.9ppg/4.5rpg/5.1apg/2.1spg/2.4 TOpg 38% fg
Lowry: 11.5ppg/6.4rpg/6.6apg/2.9spg/2.5 TOpg 37% fg
Mike Conley: 13.0ppg/3.6rpg/5.8apg/1.1spg/2.3TOpg 43% fg
Westbrook: 16.9ppg/5.4rpg/5.9apg/1.5spg/3.7TOpg 40% fg
Jeff Teague: 11.4ppg/3.4rpg/6.1apg/1.7spg/2.5Topg/ 40% fg
Kemba: 16.1ppg/4.7rpg/5.8apg/1.2spg/2.4TOpg 37% fg
Dragic: 12.2ppg/5.1rpg/5.5apg/1.4spg/3.6TOpg 39% fg
Dennis Smith: 18.4ppg/4.6rpg/6.2apg/1.2spg/3.4TOpg 39% fg

All of these guys are statistically similar to Fox so stop having an agenda. With the exception of a few point gods like Steph, Kyrie, CP3, Wall, Ben Simmons, and Dame Lillard, almost every NBA starting pg has struggled pretty heavily in their rookie season. It just comes with the position. If we are still having this convo next year then we can start to become concerned. Right now Fox is pretty par for the course.
Baseball has moved past using archaic box score stats to determine a players worth and it's time basketball does the same because two players can have similar per36 stats and have completely different effects on the game.

This whole time I've been talking advanced stats that show a bigger picture of their entire effect on the game. Fox is way behind nearly all of them from an advanced stat standpoint when comparing their rookie years. It's not an agenda at all. This is what is getting irritating to me because I'd rather be on here talking about how awesome Fox is but the data doesn't support that. I've been trying to find similar players that were as bad as him their rookie years and turned out to be awesome but there just aren't very many. So since the data supports Fox NOT developing into a good player, that all the sudden means I have an agenda?

I'm sorry if the thought of the Kings completely whiffing on yet another lottery pick is upsetting but don't act like I have an agenda if I search through the numbers and start to realize that he doesn't have a good shot at developing into the player we thought he could be. I don't get off on being negative or coming back at anyone saying "haha I was right all along" or any goofy crap like that. All I do is look at the numbers, look at the odds and then base my decision off that. If analyzing data is means I have an agenda, then I guess I am as guilty as charged.
 
#44
when you are dealing with a player's "numbers" (especially expanding to 36 minutes), isn't it important to note how they were used?

earlier, someone tried to show how steve nash struggled, but he was drafted to be a backup to Jason Kidd and hardly started his first two years.

so, you can look at nash's stats for his first two years and say "struggled", but he was a backup.

I am certainly not saying that fox is going to the hall of fame - but he might.

However, given what this team has and what it needs, it is still the right move to trade him (but, imho, NOT for another untested player, but for an established starter/star).

I am also not saying that mason is more than Raymond felton/patty mills, but given the fact that we have bogi and temple who can also play the point, I think we can afford to trade fox to get better somewhere else.

and lord knows, we need to get a LOT better in the frontcourt.
 
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#45
I
Baseball has moved past using archaic box score stats to determine a players worth and it's time basketball does the same because two players can have similar per36 stats and have completely different effects on the game.

This whole time I've been talking advanced stats that show a bigger picture of their entire effect on the game. Fox is way behind nearly all of them from an advanced stat standpoint when comparing their rookie years. It's not an agenda at all. This is what is getting irritating to me because I'd rather be on here talking about how awesome Fox is but the data doesn't support that. I've been trying to find similar players that were as bad as him their rookie years and turned out to be awesome but there just aren't very many. So since the data supports Fox NOT developing into a good player, that all the sudden means I have an agenda?

I'm sorry if the thought of the Kings completely whiffing on yet another lottery pick is upsetting but don't act like I have an agenda if I search through the numbers and start to realize that he doesn't have a good shot at developing into the player we thought he could be. I don't get off on being negative or coming back at anyone saying "haha I was right all along" or any goofy crap like that. All I do is look at the numbers, look at the odds and then base my decision off that. If analyzing data is means I have an agenda, then I guess I am as guilty as charged.
I appreciate advanced metrics as much as anyone, but I can't think of a more pointless way to apply them then using them to compare 19-20 year olds at the NBA's hardest position.
 
#47
I


I appreciate advanced metrics as much as anyone, but I can't think of a more pointless way to apply them then using them to compare 19-20 year olds at the NBA's hardest position.
I don't see how age or position are pointless in this situation when you're comparing data. It's pretty dang equal when you're comparing players that were the same age at the same position.

Lets just say this for the sake of conversation.

You have a statistic. Lets say it ranges from negative 10 (worst player in the league) to positive 10 (Lebron, Harden, Curry etc). You have a pool of say 50 one and done rookie PGs that have played at least 20min per game and out of those players, there are zero all stars who were worse than -2 their rookie years. There's only a couple of what most people would consider to be good players that were at -5 and only one good player that was a -8. Everyone else down that deep in the negatives were wash outs or roleplayers.

Your player is a -9 after his rookie season. With that data that you've collected, knowing that there are zero all stars below -2 and very few good players beyond -5, would you not come to the conclusion that your player is highly highly unlikely to ever become an all star and very unlikely to become a good player?
 
#48
My eyeballs tell me DeAaron Fox is an NBA player. I do believe that defenses are preparing for him. Which alone is a clue to how effective he is.

He has the ability to wreak havoc due to his speed and ball handling. he is also going to be a good defender IMO. He has all the tools and he has the desire.

Because of back court mate Bogi he does not have to be the only playmaker. It is nice to have both guards with the ability to be the Lead Guard.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#49
I don't see how age or position are pointless in this situation when you're comparing data. It's pretty dang equal when you're comparing players that were the same age at the same position.

Lets just say this for the sake of conversation.

You have a statistic. Lets say it ranges from negative 10 (worst player in the league) to positive 10 (Lebron, Harden, Curry etc). You have a pool of say 50 one and done rookie PGs that have played at least 20min per game and out of those players, there are zero all stars who were worse than -2 their rookie years. There's only a couple of what most people would consider to be good players that were at -5 and only one good player that was a -8. Everyone else down that deep in the negatives were wash outs or roleplayers.

Your player is a -9 after his rookie season. With that data that you've collected, knowing that there are zero all stars below -2 and very few good players beyond -5, would you not come to the conclusion that your player is highly highly unlikely to ever become an all star and very unlikely to become a good player?
I think even entertaining the thought of Fox being a bust (which is pretty much what you're saying) is pretty horrifying for most of us Kings fans, considering this franchise's pathetic draft history and the fact that our future looks pretty bleak if Fox ends up being anything less than a solid starter.

Fox has had a trash rookie year. I'm not going to argue that he hasn't, but I'm gonna give into blind optimism for now. If Fox busts, you can add another 3-5 years to our insanely incompetent rebuild (since the Webber trade) and I don't want to consider that!

If Fox doesn't improve, come at us towards the end of next season with your advanced stats, and you might win some converts, but right now I think most of us would rather hope for the best.

Unless we trade him for Doncic. ;)
 
#50
I don't see how age or position are pointless in this situation when you're comparing data. It's pretty dang equal when you're comparing players that were the same age at the same position.

Lets just say this for the sake of conversation.

You have a statistic. Lets say it ranges from negative 10 (worst player in the league) to positive 10 (Lebron, Harden, Curry etc). You have a pool of say 50 one and done rookie PGs that have played at least 20min per game and out of those players, there are zero all stars who were worse than -2 their rookie years. There's only a couple of what most people would consider to be good players that were at -5 and only one good player that was a -8. Everyone else down that deep in the negatives were wash outs or roleplayers.

Your player is a -9 after his rookie season. With that data that you've collected, knowing that there are zero all stars below -2 and very few good players beyond -5, would you not come to the conclusion that your player is highly highly unlikely to ever become an all star and very unlikely to become a good player?
So you're telling me that the analytics told you that Kyle Lowry, who was a non factor in his early years, would become an MVP candidate one day? What about Kris Dunn? Did they also project that he would go from being called one of the biggest busts in the draft last year to a guy who's locked down the Bulls starting pg position? Or that Brandon Jennings, who was one of the best rookies in his rookie year, dropping 55 points in one of his first games, would be a deep bench afterthought after 4 years? I wonder if Bucks fans thought that Giannis, who was at one point basically Bruno Caboclo, would become the NBA destroyer he is today? I've watched too much NBA basketball for far too long for analytics to tell me whether or not a player in his rookie season will turn out to be a great player or not. Lastly, data while great, only takes players at face value with no regard to their situation at all. For example, if it compared Fox in his rookie year to Steph in his rookie year did it also factor in the fact that Steph was given the starting job and a green light from the very beginning and that Fox started behind George Hill on a team that was also figuring out ways to incorporate and develop 6 other young players at the same time?
 
#51
So you're telling me that the analytics told you that Kyle Lowry, who was a non factor in his early years, would become an MVP candidate one day? What about Kris Dunn? Did they also project that he would go from being called one of the biggest busts in the draft last year to a guy who's locked down the Bulls starting pg position? Or that Brandon Jennings, who was one of the best rookies in his rookie year, dropping 55 points in one of his first games, would be a deep bench afterthought after 4 years? I wonder if Bucks fans thought that Giannis, who was at one point basically Bruno Caboclo, would become the NBA destroyer he is today? I've watched too much NBA basketball for far too long for analytics to tell me whether or not a player in his rookie season will turn out to be a great player or not. Lastly, data while great, only takes players at face value with no regard to their situation at all. For example, if it compared Fox in his rookie year to Steph in his rookie year did it also factor in the fact that Steph was given the starting job and a green light from the very beginning and that Fox started behind George Hill on a team that was also figuring out ways to incorporate and develop 6 other young players at the same time?
My god this strawman stuff has been breaking my freakin back here all year long. How long must we deal with this tactic of turning peoples analysis into absolutes? Can we please put this to rest? I'm talking the ODDS of a player becoming good. No where did I say that it's impossible. I'm saying it's IMPROBABLE. This is no different than the irritating fallacy people use on here when someone says having the #1 draft pick gives them the best odds of landing an all star and people respond with "What about Anthony Bennett?". This is about odds, not absolutes.

All you basically did was take the scenario in my post and pick out the very small percentage of players that turned out to be good, while ignoring the very large percentage of them that turned out to be bad. The stat I talked about would give you the approximate odds of a player like Fox turning into a good player. It doesn't mean he can never develop into an all star. It means his odds could possibly be closer to 5% whereas a guy like DSJ might have 35% odds. On the flip side, Michael Carter Williams probably had very high odds of becoming an all star after his rookie year but it never happened. Again, this is about odds. Not absolutes.

Yes the environment does have something to do with it and there is no way of calculating that but I'd be willing to bet that a very large percentage of one and done PGs that played 20+ minutes were more than likely on bad teams to start their careers. A guy like Jayson Tatum is in a pretty rare situation for a top lottery pick. Most of the other lottery teams from last year are bad and the rookies are in similar situations to Fox.
 
#52
Bogs has flashed way more than Fox.

If we can get Doncic for Fox and pick 8 (or wherever) you do it. He's 10x the prospect Fox is (ok, slight hyperbole) and honestly I'd say he's more proven with what he's done overseas compared to Fox's weak rookie year.

I do agree with you that we should be patient though! And I'm by no means writing Fox off as a bust. I just don't see him as a future franchise cornerstone, even if all breaks right for him. He should by no means be considered untouchable as far as trades go.
Doncic is a better prospect than Fox but you can't field a Bogdan-Doncic backcourt. It's not like Bogdan is a franchise cornerstone either and unlike Fox there is next to no chance they can squeeze enough improvement out of him to turn him into one.

If it came down to between Fox and Bogdan in a trade for Doncic, it's Bogdan's bags I'm packing.
 
#53
My god this strawman stuff has been breaking my freakin back here all year long. How long must we deal with this tactic of turning peoples analysis into absolutes? Can we please put this to rest? I'm talking the ODDS of a player becoming good. No where did I say that it's impossible. I'm saying it's IMPROBABLE. This is no different than the irritating fallacy people use on here when someone says having the #1 draft pick gives them the best odds of landing an all star and people respond with "What about Anthony Bennett?". This is about odds, not absolutes.

All you basically did was take the scenario in my post and pick out the very small percentage of players that turned out to be good, while ignoring the very large percentage of them that turned out to be bad. The stat I talked about would give you the approximate odds of a player like Fox turning into a good player. It doesn't mean he can never develop into an all star. It means his odds could possibly be closer to 5% whereas a guy like DSJ might have 35% odds. On the flip side, Michael Carter Williams probably had very high odds of becoming an all star after his rookie year but it never happened. Again, this is about odds. Not absolutes.

Yes the environment does have something to do with it and there is no way of calculating that but I'd be willing to bet that a very large percentage of one and done PGs that played 20+ minutes were more than likely on bad teams to start their careers. A guy like Jayson Tatum is in a pretty rare situation for a top lottery pick. Most of the other lottery teams from last year are bad and the rookies are in similar situations to Fox.
I have bagged on Fox all year but he has had a couple games that provide some hope. The 10 assist game showed how Fox could play. He just has to decide to be a point guard and not the scoring guard.

It’s funny, on NBA TV they were talking about Russ and how OKC has a dominant record when Russ takes 17 or less shots. I see Fox in a similar mode. If he chooses to break down defenses and find open teammates he could be very effective. If he chooses to continue to force shots at the rim or take low percentage mid range shots he will continue to be poor. It’s all a matter of mindset with him.
 
#54
Doncic is a better prospect than Fox but you can't field a Bogdan-Doncic backcourt. It's not like Bogdan is a franchise cornerstone either and unlike Fox there is next to no chance they can squeeze enough improvement out of him to turn him into one.

If it came down to between Fox and Bogdan in a trade for Doncic, it's Bogdan's bags I'm packing.
We’re not trading Fox but this is absolutely false.

With Doncic/Bogdan you easily sign a guy like Marcus Smart or Avery Bradley to have one of them guard opponents pg.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#55
Doncic is a better prospect than Fox but you can't field a Bogdan-Doncic backcourt. It's not like Bogdan is a franchise cornerstone either and unlike Fox there is next to no chance they can squeeze enough improvement out of him to turn him into one.

If it came down to between Fox and Bogdan in a trade for Doncic, it's Bogdan's bags I'm packing.
I don't think it would come to that. Lineups are trending smaller to the point where Doncic might have above average size at the SF position. I can see moving Bogdan to the bench where he'll have the opportunity to handle the ball more and moving Buddy into the starting lineup where his elite shooting can compliment Fox and Doncic's playmaking. In that case he would still be a key contributer off the bench.
 
#57
I don't understand the downers. Imo, Fox has lived up to the hype. The future is bright for him.

The player I compared him to coming into the draft was Tony Parker, and lo and behold, their rookie year stats are very very similar. Both players possess elite speed, shiftiness, able to get anywhere on the floor and create good looks for themselves. Am I saying Fox is going to be as good as Parker? No. But Parker is Fox's ceiling, and based on his rookie year, Fox is on the same trajectory as a young Parker. There is no guarantee he reaches that level but don't give up on him now.

Is Fox without flaws? Of course not. He needs to be a better shooter, better playmaker, and better finisher. All the things that a young Parker also dealt with, but those are flaws that can be fixed. What Fox already has - size, length, shiftiness, and top notch speed; should make any fans drool. The NBA has always been kind to point guards with size and speed - the John Wall, Derek Rose, Tony Parker, pre-injury Devin Harris, Gary Payton, Steve Francis, etc. And this Fox kid is bigger, longer, and faster than most. Besides John Wall, which PG in the NBA can match his size and speed? I haven't seen any team able to stop his penetration. None. Yes, too often he makes dumb decisions and stupid plays after he gets into the lane, but the key is he gets there essentially whenever he wants to. Once he figured out the rest of his game, he is going to be scary.

And we haven't even gotten to the other side of the ball yet. This kids plays D and more importantly, he takes pride in D. Is he a good defender? No. But man, the tools and the will are there. After so many no-D Kings PGs, I like a PG who can defend.

So what we have here is a two-way freak whose flaws are all fixable. Coming into the 2013 draft, I was high on a PG named Dennis Schroder. That kid is long, speedy, can D up, and is left handed. I thought if he could improve his shot and cut down on turnovers, he'd be a pretty good starting PG. And now Schroder is one of the better PG starter int he NBA. Fox, can be even better than Schroder - he is taller, faster, and all around higher skill level than a rookie Schroder. I think, when it all comes and said, Fox will be better than Schroder and maybe as good as Parker.

.
 
#58
I rarely poke my head into the Kings Rap forums these days. I just don’t watch enough Kings games to justify it. But I do wonder from time to time about the team’s scouting and player development programs.

It seems to me that not only have the Kings failed to identify top flight talent in the draft with alarming consistency across the last decade, but they’ve also failed to adequately nurture and develop the young players they have acquired. The Kings certainly aren’t the only team to whiff on an inordinate number of draft picks, but why is it that this team just can’t turn their draft picks into long-term, above-average contributors? Are these players just turning out to be THAT bad THAT often? Sure, it wasn’t hard to read the tea leaves with a guy like Jimmer Fredette, but why do so many young players fail HERE?

Put another way, if you plugged every Kings draft pick from the last ten years onto another team with a stronger player development program, do they see greater success? Does Willie Cauley-Stein become a suffocating defensive talent on the Spurs? Does Demarcus Cousins take so long to fulfill his superstar potential if he’s in a Celtics uniform from day one? Etc. Etc. Etc.

I liked De’Aaron Fox prior to last year’s draft. I think he’s got the talent to be a dynamic scoring guard in the NBA. But can he succeed HERE? And let’s say that, by some miracle, the Kings managed to luck into the first pick this year, and let’s say they use it to snag Doncic. Does he succeed HERE? If Fox does not, if the hypothetical of Doncic does not, are they just another in a series of unfortunate picks that didn’t pan out? Or is there a larger organizational issue that needs to be addressed regarding commitment to developing young players? I don’t know about the rest of you, but long ago I grew weary of watching young team after young team blow by the Kings’ progress. Why is this team always stuck in such a rut?

If Vlade Divac and his staff aren’t up to the task of properly scouting talent in the draft, then they needed to be let go yesterday. It was always a mistake to hire Vlade as a rookie GM, to put a beloved fan favorite in a position where he was much more likely to fail than succeed. If it’s as big of a problem as I think it is, it’s better to remedy it now, before you get too far down the line.

Likewise, if Dave Joerger and his staff aren’t up to the task of getting these young guys to look like NBA players, then they should be let go before you end up wasting years of player development time on the next Paul Westphal. I do believe that continuity is important, but I also believe that you MUST have organizational synergy when it comes to the task of rebuilding a team. Is Joerger ready to go all-in with a bunch of kids, to let go of the aging comfort zones he’s coached before, your Matt Barnes’, your Zach Randolph’s, your Vince Carter’s?

Maybe my concerns are much ado about nothing. That said, I do have to scratch my head and wonder why this franchise just can’t settle into a reasonably successful formula for the drafting and development of young talent. I don’t expect Spurs-level efficiency, of course. But from one ownership group to the next, from one GM to the next, from one coach to the next, nothing breeds success. And I honestly don’t have much confidence in a Vivek/Vlade/Joerger partnership, either. I hate to waltz in here and be a downer, but it just isn’t easy being a Kings fan, I suppose.
 
#59
Baseball has moved past using archaic box score stats to determine a players worth and it's time basketball does the same because two players can have similar per36 stats and have completely different effects on the game.

This whole time I've been talking advanced stats that show a bigger picture of their entire effect on the game. Fox is way behind nearly all of them from an advanced stat standpoint when comparing their rookie years. It's not an agenda at all. This is what is getting irritating to me because I'd rather be on here talking about how awesome Fox is but the data doesn't support that. I've been trying to find similar players that were as bad as him their rookie years and turned out to be awesome but there just aren't very many. So since the data supports Fox NOT developing into a good player, that all the sudden means I have an agenda?

I'm sorry if the thought of the Kings completely whiffing on yet another lottery pick is upsetting but don't act like I have an agenda if I search through the numbers and start to realize that he doesn't have a good shot at developing into the player we thought he could be. I don't get off on being negative or coming back at anyone saying "haha I was right all along" or any goofy crap like that. All I do is look at the numbers, look at the odds and then base my decision off that. If analyzing data is means I have an agenda, then I guess I am as guilty as charged.
I mean, you can cherry-pick VORP all you want, but it still doesn't change the fact basically all of the rookie PGs have been trash. I guess if you want to say Fox has been the "worst" of them, you can, but not a single one of them outside of Mitchell is "living up to the hype". They're ALL bad NBA players right now. They all have a LONG way to develop if this PG class wants to live up to the hype of being the next great generation in the NBA.

I was never looking for Fox to be a productive player this year, on a bad team with 10+ new players added. I wanted to see glimpses of how he can eventually turn into a franchise player. And his quickness+Ability to break-down a defense is incredibly rare and we've seen the moments of how this guy can develop into an all-star. There's nothing suggested in his play that he's a Jimmer/Stauskas/McLemore/Robinson type of pick where he clearly doesn't belong at the NBA level. He's just incredibly young and doesn't know how to use his talent in the right ways yet. That'll hopefully change starting next season.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#60
I don't understand the downers. Imo, Fox has lived up to the hype. The future is bright for him.

The player I compared him to coming into the draft was Tony Parker, and lo and behold, their rookie year stats are very very similar. Both players possess elite speed, shiftiness, able to get anywhere on the floor and create good looks for themselves. Am I saying Fox is going to be as good as Parker? No. But Parker is Fox's ceiling, and based on his rookie year, Fox is on the same trajectory as a young Parker. There is no guarantee he reaches that level but don't give up on him now.

Is Fox without flaws? Of course not. He needs to be a better shooter, better playmaker, and better finisher. All the things that a young Parker also dealt with, but those are flaws that can be fixed. What Fox already has - size, length, shiftiness, and top notch speed; should make any fans drool. The NBA has always been kind to point guards with size and speed - the John Wall, Derek Rose, Tony Parker, pre-injury Devin Harris, Gary Payton, Steve Francis, etc. And this Fox kid is bigger, longer, and faster than most. Besides John Wall, which PG in the NBA can match his size and speed? I haven't seen any team able to stop his penetration. None. Yes, too often he makes dumb decisions and stupid plays after he gets into the lane, but the key is he gets there essentially whenever he wants to. Once he figured out the rest of his game, he is going to be scary.

And we haven't even gotten to the other side of the ball yet. This kids plays D and more importantly, he takes pride in D. Is he a good defender? No. But man, the tools and the will are there. After so many no-D Kings PGs, I like a PG who can defend.

So what we have here is a two-way freak whose flaws are all fixable. Coming into the 2013 draft, I was high on a PG named Dennis Schroder. That kid is long, speedy, can D up, and is left handed. I thought if he could improve his shot and cut down on turnovers, he'd be a pretty good starting PG. And now Schroder is one of the better PG starter int he NBA. Fox, can be even better than Schroder - he is taller, faster, and all around higher skill level than a rookie Schroder. I think, when it all comes and said, Fox will be better than Schroder and maybe as good as Parker.

.
It's interesting that you compare him to Parker. I've been wondering lately who the one player Fox should talk to in the off-season to get some tips on his game and where and how to improve. The guy I came up with was Tony Parker.

I also agree with you on your comments on Schroder and how Fox could in fact be better than him.