It's too early to give up on Fox, but he's on notice to come back markedly improved next year in both strength/weight, shot selection, shooting %, getting into the paint vs. settling for jumpers, increased Assist %, lower turnover % and rebounding. Yeah... he's got quite a lot to work on, and the brutal facts are, with a PER of 11.22 and the aforementioned issues, he's a disappointment for a top 5 pick thus far.
Looking at his numbers when compared to other PGs, he's a combo guard who settles for far too many midrange jumpers but doesn't make many of them. You can live with a combo guard if they can score - and score efficiently - and build around that talent accordingly. He thus far, can not score efficiently:
- The midrange problem: He's taking more midrange shots than 91% of the PGs in the league but is in the bottom 3rd (28%) in accuracy. He should be going into the paint more, but 32% of his shots are taken there (was 55% in college) as his lack of strength prevents him from getting to the basket...thus he settles for jumpers.
- Three point shooting: we all knew this going in, but it hasn't gotten much better. Hovering at 30% with two attempts per game, he'll need to bring this above the Antoine Walker level (33% or above) next season.
- Let's say he never fixes his jumper, maybe he can become a better PG vs a combo? There's lots of room to improve:
- His assist rate of 24% is in the bottom 28% for PGs in the league
- If he can't improve his passing, he needs to cut turnovers, currently at 14.8%.
- He's sporting a nasty 1.87 A/TO ratio. You want a true starting PG to possess at least a 2:1 ratio.
- Keep in mind, he's never been more than a combo guard... so we might want to set expectations accordingly. This ain't J-Will boys and girls.
Defensively, there's some plusses and big holes:
- he's a good shotblocker for a PG, with a block rate of 0.6%
- he's average in terms of steals (1.5%) good for 43% of all PGs. Not bad for a rookie who needs to gain 30 lbs.
- he's fouling too often, good for bottom 3rd of the league, but chalk this up as a good thing (effort) and not a worry (when compared to steal rate and the fact he's a rookie).
- his lack of rebounding is a big problem: he's in the bottom 3rd of all PGs in both offensive and defensive rebounding. It's not like someone is stealing rebounds from him, this is a poor rebounding team! Adding strength and effort will be key here.
Health will be another factor... other than freak accidents which can derail careers, or players who don't put in enough consistent effort in their diet and exercise: skinny guys simply have a shorter shelf life.
Right now, Fox is playing like a fringe backup. His passing and shooting haven't drastically improved throughout his up-and-down season. This offseason - and next - is absolutely crucial to his career and hopes of becoming a true starting guard.
Adding strength and weight this offseason will be of the utmost importance... and not that Kristaps Porzingis "I didn't gain much weight but added a lot of strength!" baloney, actual muscle that can last through the season. This will help his ability to get to the line and not settle for jumpers, defend larger guards, and rebound better. Then, he needs to keep working on his jumper, and watch film/get more reps to become a better passer who takes care of the ball.
Honestly, I think Fox will round out to be a good player in time if he puts the right work in. As a fan, I'm very hopeful - and nervous - about the kind of offseason that he puts in, as it's crucial that - given our lack of assets and high draft pick/no draft pick next summer - he maximizes his potential.