Kings playoff chances remote.

#31
regardless of lottery odds if we lose the first game we need to use the time for Bagley and James to see what we got. Perhaps Giles also but I fear playing him could cause us to lose him. This environment will be great for scouting free agents.
We need to treat every game like it’s our last. Losing the first game would suck but if we ended 7-1, that would greatly increase our odds of making it to the play in game. Treat these last 8 like we did this season, we started off slow, didn’t give up and on the end we’re finishing strong which got us to where we are today. Still fighting.
 
#32
regardless of lottery odds if we lose the first game we need to use the time for Bagley and James to see what we got. Perhaps Giles also but I fear playing him could cause us to lose him. This environment will be great for scouting free agents.
I'm in the opposite camp, if the Kings are out of it.. don't risk another injury to Bagley. If he has a major injury, it could stretch into next season with the seasons being so close in time to one another.
 
#33
the Lakers and Clippers both have us as their 8th game. It is possible we could be forced to skip the Spurs and play one of them.
So teams short one game (Magic/Orlando) and Teams short 2 Games(Portland/Lakers) are the teams that need
additional games

So I think Kings games will not be changed and will be based on original schedule:


Kevin Pelton

@kpelton


As best I can tell, you could make an 8-game NBA schedule primarily out of remaining scheduled games by adding three new ones: Portland-L.A. Lakers and those two teams against either Miami or Orlando.
 
#34
So teams short one game (Magic/Orlando) and Teams short 2 Games(Portland/Lakers) are the teams that need
additional games

So I think Kings games will not be changed and will be based on original schedule:
Kevin Pelton
@kpelton


As best I can tell, you could make an 8-game NBA schedule primarily out of remaining scheduled games by adding three new ones: Portland-L.A. Lakers and those two teams against either Miami or Orlando.
That sounds fair, so kings will prob play lakers 2x :p
 

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#35
The biggest problem I see is the one that has existed all year for the Kings and in some ways is something that injuries helped avoid: rotation crunch. There is almost no way that someones feelings aren't hurt after this run.
 
#36
regardless of lottery odds if we lose the first game we need to use the time for Bagley and James to see what we got. Perhaps Giles also but I fear playing him could cause us to lose him. This environment will be great for scouting free agents.
With regards to Giles, I think we got insanely lucky that this years market was already going to be bare with how few teams had cap space and most teams are likely going to be very picky using their MLE, especially with a more "potential" guy like Giles with next year's revenue being very volatile. I'd be pretty shocked if you saw something like 3/24 being offered to him. More likely in the 2/12 range.

He can sign a 1+1 deal here, keep his bird rights to leave returning to the Kings an option, have guaranteed money past next season if injuries go wrong or have the option to hit UFA in a far better FA market where he has another successful year under his belt. Of course, we could have avoided all this nonsense, but something about motivation was apparently more important.
 
#37
The biggest problem I see is the one that has existed all year for the Kings and in some ways is something that injuries helped avoid: rotation crunch. There is almost no way that someones feelings aren't hurt after this run.
Yep, the main issue is going to be how we integrate Bagley into:

Fox || Cojo
Bogi || Buddy
Barnes || Bazemore
Bjelica || Barnes
Holmes || Giles || Len

I guess Bagley slides into the back-up 4 role, but one of the most effective LU's we had to close our great stretch run was putting Barnes at the 4, getting Baze in and going small. Difficult decision for sure.
 
#38
So now the NBA is arbitrarily stacking the odds even higher.

It was bad enough that MEM had their lead doubled.

But now they’re allowing Portland to retain an advantage in that they played 2 more games than SAC and NO prior to the stoppage thus have a thousandth point lead in win percentage.

So SAC and NO are potentially penalized because of the schedule. That sure seems fair and equitable.

And then NO has the tie-breaking advantage of having played SAC once.
So the KINGS are potentially penalized by not having played NO on the night of the suspension.

Good, Great, Wonderful, Grand.

Whomever at the NBA offices is dreaming up these arbitrary and imbalanced tie-breaking criteria is in desperate need of a psych exam.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29275326/sources-nba-use-winning-percentage-determine-standings
 
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#39
So now the NBA is arbitrarily stacking the odds even higher.

It was bad enough that MEM had their lead doubled.

But now they’re allowing Portland to retain an advantage in that they played 2 more games than SAC and NO prior to the stoppage thus have a thousandth point lead in win percentage.

So SAC and NO are potentially penalized because of the schedule. That sure seems fair and equitable.

And then NO has the tie-breaking advantage of having played SAC once.
So the KINGS are potentially penalized by not having played NO on the night of the suspension.

Good, Great, Wonderful, Grand.

Whomever at the NBA offices is dreaming up these arbitrary and imbalanced tie-breaking criteria is in desperate need of a psych exam.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29275326/sources-nba-use-winning-percentage-determine-standings
N.O. Should have forfeited that game. We were ready to play and they didn’t want to go out. Hence they should have to forfeit. Yes the normal person in me says it’s safer to cancel the game, but the kings fan in me said call their bluff and make the forfeit! Now we get screwed. What’s new for the kings?

edit: I figured it out. Just go 8-0. End at .500 and no thousandth of a point difference. Easy peasy ;)
 

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#41
Yep, the main issue is going to be how we integrate Bagley into:

Fox || Cojo
Bogi || Buddy
Barnes || Bazemore
Bjelica || Barnes
Holmes || Giles || Len

I guess Bagley slides into the back-up 4 role, but one of the most effective LU's we had to close our great stretch run was putting Barnes at the 4, getting Baze in and going small. Difficult decision for sure.

Playing two potential free agents in Bjelica and Giles over Bagley if he's the player they think he is could be franchise altering in the worst way imaginable. There is very little wiggle room here but I would give it a few games and cut of Bjelica and Giles out, or mostly out to see if there is anything there. Going into the summer with limited options, so many free agents, and a pissed off franchise cornerstone just doesn't look like much of a wise bet. The truth is if what has happened this season so far holds any weight then yes, playing small is the only way to succeed anyway so it doesn't matter much who is playing where in the front court.
 
#42
We're 2 months past the last time the Kings played a game. Can't count on any momentum that they had during that time. This is going to be like the start of a new season.

The team has at least a full month of practice
before the games start on July 31st, if I'm not mistaken. If the team doesn't try to integrate Bagley into a significant role during that time, then they might as well sit him the remainder of the season and trade him in the offseason.
 
#45
Playing two potential free agents in Bjelica and Giles over Bagley if he's the player they think he is could be franchise altering in the worst way imaginable. There is very little wiggle room here but I would give it a few games and cut of Bjelica and Giles out, or mostly out to see if there is anything there. Going into the summer with limited options, so many free agents, and a pissed off franchise cornerstone just doesn't look like much of a wise bet. The truth is if what has happened this season so far holds any weight then yes, playing small is the only way to succeed anyway so it doesn't matter much who is playing where in the front court.
So throw away any chance at the playoffs to make sure the 2nd year, often injured, not very good up to this point lottery pick doesn't get mad going into his 3rd season? If he had accomplished something up until this point I'd be on your side but he really hasn't and he needs to earn it coming back. Especially when Bjelica is one of the better players on the team. I'm all for playing him big minutes if the playoffs are out of reach but I wouldn't squander even what is a small chance at the first playoff berth in over a decade to pander to his emotions.
 
#47
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba...ngs-teams-playoffs/18ohl6blwizb31rswd4b51wau8

"The NBA season will restart with each of those 22 teams playing eight "regular season" games to determine playoff seeding. There also will be a play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed in either conference, but only if the No. 9 seed is fewer than four games behind in the standings. Otherwise, the No. 8 seed will be safe in the bracket.

In a play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed, the current No. 8 seed would need to defeat the No. 9 seed once, and the No. 9 seed would need to defeat the No. 8 seed two games in a row."
 
#49
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba...ngs-teams-playoffs/18ohl6blwizb31rswd4b51wau8

"The NBA season will restart with each of those 22 teams playing eight "regular season" games to determine playoff seeding. There also will be a play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed in either conference, but only if the No. 9 seed is fewer than four games behind in the standings. Otherwise, the No. 8 seed will be safe in the bracket.

In a play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed, the current No. 8 seed would need to defeat the No. 9 seed once, and the No. 9 seed would need to defeat the No. 8 seed two games in a row."
I didn’t know about the win 2 games in a row for the 9 seed. 8 seed doesn’t have that much to complain about. 9th seed has to beat out 4 other teams and be within 4 games, then win 2 in a row to take your spot.
 
#51
I didn’t know about the win 2 games in a row for the 9 seed. 8 seed doesn’t have that much to complain about. 9th seed has to beat out 4 other teams and be within 4 games, then win 2 in a row to take your spot.
yep it why Memphis’s odds to make the playoffs went up from 40% to 80% under this new plan.
 
#52
So throw away any chance at the playoffs to make sure the 2nd year, often injured, not very good up to this point lottery pick doesn't get mad going into his 3rd season? If he had accomplished something up until this point I'd be on your side but he really hasn't and he needs to earn it coming back. Especially when Bjelica is one of the better players on the team. I'm all for playing him big minutes if the playoffs are out of reach but I wouldn't squander even what is a small chance at the first playoff berth in over a decade to pander to his emotions.
Think you could still find a role for him if you give him Len's minutes and you eat into Barnes small-ball PF time. Maybe something like:


Bjelica 25 || Bagley 15 || Barnes 8
Homes 28 || Giles/Len 15 || Bagley 5

That's the role he could be most effective in right now. Let him go to work against 2nd units and be the offensive spark our bench has needed for most of the year.

Where get into trouble is if you throw him to the wolves and expect him to give great production for 30+ minutes. That's not going to lead to short-term wins.
 
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#53
Well, if the Kings win all 8 games they finish the season at .500, Barnes can shave his beard, and we get 2 "playoff" games against Memphis to try and extend our season. That all sounds pretty exciting. And if they do actually win 10 games in a row, there'd be no arguing they didn't earn their playoff spot at that point. Then we go into the off-season as a team to watch for next year. That's the task. If they wanted a red carpet to the 8 seed they shouldn't have gone 8-16 against the weaker conference in the first 5 months of the season.

Here's where this gets interesting....

Everyone is playing in Orlando without fans so there's no home team advantage and no travel to disrupt road team sleep schedules. Furthermore, those 8 games are all going to take place within a 2 week period which means a team with elite shooters can get hot and make themselves competitive regardless of their record to this point. Last season (2018-2019) the Kings were 4th in the league in 3pt% and this season (2019-2020) they were 11th with nearly the same personnel, after bricking everything for the first 3 weeks They also get a month of training camp to review the film and try to fix the busted offense. If this team can learn to move the ball better and take smarter shots I'd give them a fighting chance at not only making it to the playoffs but also winning a game or two when they get there.

Is it likely? No, probably not. But that's why we play the games. For the 3 teams currently sitting at 28 wins and trying to get to that 9th seed this is going to come down to which team can focus the best and rise to the occasion. With no draft odds on the line and nothing to lose, it will be interesting to see how mentally strong these Kings actually are. I'm excited!
 
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Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#55
Well, if the Kings win all 8 games they finish the season at .500, Barnes can shave his beard, and we get 2 "playoff" games against Memphis to try and extend our season. That all sounds pretty exciting. And if they do actually win 10 games in a row, there'd be no arguing they didn't earn their playoff spot at that point. Then we go into the off-season as a team to watch for next year. That's the task. If they wanted a red carpet to the 8 seed they shouldn't have gone 8-16 against the weaker conference in the first 5 months of the season.

Here's where this gets interesting....

Everyone is playing in Orlando without fans so there's no home team advantage and no travel to disrupt road team sleep schedules. Furthermore, those 8 games are all going to take place within a 2 week period which means a team with elite shooters can get hot and make themselves competitive regardless of their record to this point. Last season (2018-2019) the Kings were 4th in the league in 3pt% and this season (2019-2020) they were 11th with nearly the same personnel, after bricking everything for the first 3 weeks They also get a month of training camp to review the film and try to fix the busted offense. If this team can learn to move the ball better and take smarter shots I'd give them a fighting chance at not only making it to the playoffs but also winning a game or two when they get there.

Is it likely? No, probably not. But that's why we play the games. For the 3 teams currently sitting at 28 wins and trying to get to that 9th seed this is going to come down to which team can focus the best and rise to the occasion. With no draft odds on the line and nothing to lose, it will be interesting to see how mentally strong these Kings actually are. I'm excited!
It seemed to me that the team started clicking on offense once De'Aaron got healthy and the rest of the team, aside from some occasional Buddy Ball and Bjelica high-post action, decided to get out of his way and let him wreak havoc upon opposing defenses. And it should be noted that against all odds (backfiring FA signings, constant staff turnover, etc.), the front office has somehow assembled the deepest roster (if not necessarily the most talented) roster out of all the teams remaining in the race for 8th so if there ever was a time to push the other team's conditioning it would be now.
 
#56
It seemed to me that the team started clicking on offense once De'Aaron got healthy and the rest of the team, aside from some occasional Buddy Ball and Bjelica high-post action, decided to get out of his way and let him wreak havoc upon opposing defenses. And it should be noted that against all odds (backfiring FA signings, constant staff turnover, etc.), the front office has somehow assembled the deepest roster (if not necessarily the most talented) roster out of all the teams remaining in the race for 8th so if there ever was a time to push the other team's conditioning it would be now.
funny. I would say the opposite. I think the team started clicking when Fox moved from a minus to a plus defender.
 
#58
It seemed to me that the team started clicking on offense once De'Aaron got healthy and the rest of the team, aside from some occasional Buddy Ball and Bjelica high-post action, decided to get out of his way and let him wreak havoc upon opposing defenses. And it should be noted that against all odds (backfiring FA signings, constant staff turnover, etc.), the front office has somehow assembled the deepest roster (if not necessarily the most talented) roster out of all the teams remaining in the race for 8th so if there ever was a time to push the other team's conditioning it would be now.
Fox will have to become Neo. He has to start to believe.

I believe,
He will.
 
#59
If you previously rated the chances of a global pandemic interrupting an NBA season higher than the chances of ESPN passing comment on the Kings, you were correct:

Screenshot_20200611-193842~2.png
 

Capt. Factorial

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Staff member
#60
If you previously rated the chances of a global pandemic interrupting an NBA season higher than the chances of ESPN passing comment on the Kings, you were correct:

View attachment 9937
They polled 34 people, and zero thought the Kings would get the playoff spot. That would be locker room bulletin board fodder - if we had our own dedicated locker room.