Kings picking 13th overall (formerly the draft lotto thread)

[Capt. Factorial]

Oh I thought they wanted two seconds to avoid having contract guarantees being so far in cap hell.

I'm guessing they want additional draft assets due to cap hell. I'd bet they'd love to spend that #22 to get three guys in the late first/early second they can use to fill out that bench. But I doubt the contract guarantee means much, since they need to fill out the roster anyway.

 

[SacTownKid]

Very Sactown Dog of me but now that Monk is coming back I'm going to feel pretty agitated if we draft a guard.

Pass on Devin Carter and I'm agitated.

 

[The_Jamal]

Very Sactown Dog of me but now that Monk is coming back I'm going to feel pretty agitated if we draft a guard.

Never go full sactowndog

 

[Turgenev]

Never go full sactowndog

I'm quite proud of myself going Sactowndog. I'm a man of the people.

 

[The_Jamal]

Pass on Devin Carter and I'm agitated.

He's really the only guard in this range I'm super interested in. I like Bub too, but he's not a "must have" type of draft pick for me. Not huge on guys like McCain, Collier, Walter, Dillingham. Those sort of archetypes are "dime a dozen" sort of guards I think you can find pretty much every year. Carter's defense is unique. Bub's pull-up/self creation at 18 is unique.

Guess that'd be an interesting discussion. Do you value those range of guards over the bigs like Edey/Ware/Filipowski/Holmes? I have Holmes a tier ahead of all these bigs, but would we be happier with Edey over a McCain? I dunno

 

[dude12]

If Monte thinks Carter is bpa, then he takes him but Carter won’t be around. Still, if you add another guard, it just means you have depth to trade from in the guard position

I’m sure there is a trade that will happen or it’s drafting a wing.

 

[sactowndog]

I'm all for angling at another pick, but the way I read this, PHX is looking to move down, not out of the first round. I don't imagine #45 and a future second (or two) would get it done. Seems a bit optimistic.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804179952239284374

I would do this move for sure and take any number of upside talented guys. I would have us taking Ron Holland at 13 and Tyler Smith at 22.

might also trade Davion and 45 for 22.

 

[sactowndog]

Never go full sactowndog

nice I’m a verb now?

 

[sactowndog]

Fox and Domas won’t be enough. The hope is Keegan gets there, but that’s very up in the air. Monte needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat. It’s possible, he’s swung before. He needs to again. And if it involves trading Keegan … as you said, this team is built on Fox and Domas, and I don’t believe in them as a Big 2. There needs to be a third, and do we wait until maybe just maybe KM maybe eventually gets there? Does that fit any sort of timeframe?

what are your thoughts on Keon?

i may be irrationally high on him but his combination of shooting accuracy and defense to me is special. If he can add shooting off the dribble hand-off with Domas he becomes the ideal 2 guard to put next to Fox and Sabonis.

I think a line-up of
Fox
Ellis
Xxx
Murray
Sabonis

has the length and shooting to compete depending who slots into the Xxx spot. Sadly that Xxx spot might be the hardest to fill in basketball.

 

[sactowndog]

If we have to make a win now trade it is likely to require us to move three or four contracts so we’ll need cheap roster players.

I’m not convinced pick 22 this year is worth less than the average 22 it’s just no clear and obvious stars up top have folks undervaluing the class.

in some people’s estimation it could be better.

 

[twslam07]

what are your thoughts on Keon?

i may be irrationally high on him but his combination of shooting accuracy and defense to me is special. If he can add shooting off the dribble hand-off with Domas he becomes the ideal 2 guard to put next to Fox and Sabonis.

I think a line-up of
Fox
Ellis
Xxx
Murray
Sabonis

has the length and shooting to compete depending who slots into the Xxx spot. Sadly that Xxx spot might be the hardest to fill in basketball.

It should be…

Fox
Ellis
Murray
???
Sabonis

Murray has already shown himself to be a great defender at SF. Plus by playing him at SF, that gives you great length at PG, SG, and SF. If you add another PF with great length, that means you now have 4 players with great length surrounding Sabonis (who is below average in that department).

As I mentioned, Murray has great size and length at SF, but if you play him at PF, that size & length becomes about average for that position (and then I’m assuming the player you find to play SF will be smaller than Murray as well which doesn’t really help). I’d much rather try to have great length 1-4 to help cover for Sabonis especially since Murray has already shown he’s more than capable of handling the SF position defensively.

 

[sactowndog]

It should be…

Fox
Ellis
Murray
???
Sabonis

Murray has already shown himself to be a great defender at SF. Plus by playing him at SF, that gives you great length at PG, SG, and SF. If you add another PF with great length, that means you now have 4 players with great length surrounding Sabonis (who is below average in that department).

As I mentioned, Murray has great size and length at SF, but if you play him at PF, that size & length becomes about average for that position (and then I’m assuming the player you find to play SF will be smaller than Murray as well which doesn’t really help). I’d much rather try to have great length 1-4 to help cover for Sabonis especially since Murray has already shown he’s more than capable of handling the SF position defensively.

Murray is flexible but to me he lacks a little bit of quickness I would like to see at 3. To me he is a great stretch 4. If we get Holland (assuming no trade) we don’t lose much length assuming he can play D and hit a corner 3.

of course finding a 3 and D guy means Keon has to be able to run the splits and shoot off the dribble hand-off.

 

[twslam07]

Murray is flexible but to me he lacks a little bit of quickness I would like to see at 3. To me he is a great stretch 4. If we get Holland (assuming no trade) we don’t lose much length assuming he can play D and hit a corner 3.

of course finding a 3 and D guy means Keon has to be able to run the splits and shoot off the dribble hand-off.

I feel very comfortable with Murray’s defensive potential guarding 2-4 and even some 1s. And it seems Brown feels the same way often giving him the assignment of these smaller players (including PGs). It’d be much better for us to keep Murray at SF and find a bigger & longer PF.

If we do what you recommend and put Holland at SF (6’10.75” wingspan & 8’8” standing reach) and Murray at PF, you now have average size/length at both SF and PF while you’re C has below average length. That’s not ideal. We should be trying to make up for Sabonis’ lack of length. Not just add players who have average length for their position. Murray gives above average length at SF. Now let’s go find a PF with above average length for that position.

Never thought I’d see the day where I would be out “sactowndoging” sactowndog but here we are

 

[sactowndog]

I feel very comfortable with Murray’s defensive potential guarding 2-4 and even some 1s. And it seems Brown feels the same way often giving him the assignment of these smaller players (including PGs). It’d be much better for us to keep Murray at SF and find a bigger & longer PF.

If we do what you recommend and put Holland at SF (6’10.75” wingspan & 8’8” standing reach) and Murray at PF, you now have average size/length at both SF and PF while you’re C has below average length. That’s not ideal. We should be trying to make up for Sabonis’ lack of length. Not just add players who have average length for their position. Murray gives above average length at SF. Now let’s go find a PF with above average length for that position.

Never thought I’d see the day where I would be out “sactowndoging” sactowndog but here we are

well if it makes you feel better I also advocate trading Davion to Pheonix for 22 and drafting Smith at 22. That would allow you to go your route and I have not given up on Kessler though I might be the only one

 

[ESP47]

He's really the only guard in this range I'm super interested in. I like Bub too, but he's not a "must have" type of draft pick for me. Not huge on guys like McCain, Collier, Walter, Dillingham. Those sort of archetypes are "dime a dozen" sort of guards I think you can find pretty much every year. Carter's defense is unique. Bub's pull-up/self creation at 18 is unique.

Guess that'd be an interesting discussion. Do you value those range of guards over the bigs like Edey/Ware/Filipowski/Holmes? I have Holmes a tier ahead of all these bigs, but would we be happier with Edey over a McCain? I dunno

I'm liking either Carter or Da Silva. Not a fan of any of the bigs. The idea of Holmes is nice but his archetype seems to have pretty high bust odds. I don't think his 3pt shooting is for real and he plays in a weak conference.

Maybe I'm not seeing what other people are seeing but Edey is a huge no for me.

 

[The_Jamal]

Murray is flexible but to me he lacks a little bit of quickness I would like to see at 3. To me he is a great stretch 4. If we get Holland (assuming no trade) we don’t lose much length assuming he can play D and hit a corner 3.

of course finding a 3 and D guy means Keon has to be able to run the splits and shoot off the dribble hand-off.

Keegans strength last year was perimeter defense. He was incredibly impactful and I know there's numbers out there to back that up. And just the eye test, he was easily our best perimeter defender until Keon showed up at the end of the year.

What are you seeing that he can't guard wings? I and a lot people would say that's probably the most exciting development on his game last year. I mean, dude was checking steph and Mitchell throughout the year for goodness sake. What more versatility do we want from him?

Calling him a stretch 4 is just sticking to what his prospect profile was. He's completely debunked that the last 2 years

 

[Padrino]

Keegans strength last year was perimeter defense. He was incredibly impactful and I know there's numbers out there to back that up. And just the eye test, he was easily our best perimeter defender until Keon showed up at the end of the year.

What are you seeing that he can't guard wings? I and a lot people would say that's probably the most exciting development on his game last year. I mean, dude was checking steph and Mitchell throughout the year for goodness sake. What more versatility do we want from him?

Yeah, that's what was so surprising to me in Keegan's second year. His lateral intuition and use of his hips were astounding for a player that nobody expected to be particularly above average defensively. It's precisely what makes the elevation of Ellis into a full-time starter so tantalizing to me. With Fox's and Keon's active hands, and Keegan's potential for containment on the perimeter, the Kings could be a reasonably effective team on defense, even better if they can replace Barnes with another plus defender.

 

[sactowndog]

I'm guessing they want additional draft assets due to cap hell. I'd bet they'd love to spend that #22 to get three guys in the late first/early second they can use to fill out that bench. But I doubt the contract guarantee means much, since they need to fill out the roster anyway.

question Capt. Is it possible that the Malik signing could be used as a trade asset or is he locked into the Kings per new CBA rules?

 

[The_Jamal]

Yeah, that's what was so surprising to me in Keegan's second year. His lateral intuition and use of his hips were astounding for a player that nobody expected to be particularly above average defensively. It's precisely what makes the elevation of Ellis into a full-time starter so tantalizing to me. With Fox's and Keon's active hands, and Keegan's potential for containment on the perimeter, the Kings could be a reasonably effective team on defense, even better if they can replace Barnes with another plus defender.

I mean, there's already proof of that concept. We were 3rd in def rating, basically the second that Keon was in the rotation full time. Small-ish sample games, sure, but I do like we've already seen real defensive success on paper with what was already in place. Should have an even bigger effect if/when we make defensive improvements

 

[Capt. Factorial]

question Capt. Is it possible that the Malik signing could be used as a trade asset or is he locked into the Kings per new CBA rules?

Do you mean as a sign-and-trade? I don't think there's any technical reason an Early Bird contract can't be a S&T, but I think it's overwhelmingly clear that's not what is happening here.

He will be eligible to be traded Dec. 15th like all summer free agent signings.

 

[kingsfan101]

If Monte thinks Carter is bpa, then he takes him but Carter won’t be around. Still, if you add another guard, it just means you have depth to trade from in the guard position

I’m sure there is a trade that will happen or it’s drafting a wing.

The trouble, of course, is not that you want to trade one of your guards, but what you get back in return.

While no player is untradeable, it is reasonable to assume that Monte won't want to trade Fox, Monk, Ellis, or the player selected. Monk has just signed (not even really signed yet), a very reasonable contract, and might well have some kind of a no-trade clause (pure speculation on my part though). Fox, you trade only if some other franchise player is available, and even then you probably don't (unless the star is also young and more established). As of now, no such player seems available. Ellis and the draft pick could be part of a package, but I think Ellis's value in particular will rise this year. So, trading now would be a bad move.

That leaves Kevin and Davion. While both have value, it's not enough to get a major upgrade at 4. So, drafting a guard, just because he's BPA, might not necessarily be the best move, unless the player is significantly better than the rest. If we do draft him, it's a long term move.

 

[twslam07]

well if it makes you feel better I also advocate trading Davion to Pheonix for 22 and drafting Smith at 22. That would allow you to go your route and I have not given up on Kessler though I might be the only one

I’m not a big fan of Smith. I’m not high on his defensive potential and that’s what we’ll ideally need next to Sabonis.

Having said that, I would gladly take #22 for Mitchell but doubt his value is that high. I think Mitchell would return an early 2nd.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I'm liking either Carter or Da Silva. Not a fan of any of the bigs. The idea of Holmes is nice but his archetype seems to have pretty high bust odds. I don't think his 3pt shooting is for real and he plays in a weak conference.

Maybe I'm not seeing what other people are seeing but Edey is a huge no for me.

I judge Holmes largely by the game I watched and was rooting against him, and he was giving Arizona fits until he got into foul trouble (which, that last thing is a concern as a Kings fan).

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I’m not a big fan of Smith. I’m not high on his defensive potential and that’s what we’ll ideally need next to Sabonis.

Having said that, I would gladly take #22 for Mitchell but doubt his value is that high. I think Mitchell would return an early 2nd.

Phoenix wants seconds so Mitchell and seconds would give them at least one NBA ready player instead of crossed fingers.

I guess we'll see how valued/undervalued draft picks really are this year soon enough.

 

[sactowndog]

Keegans strength last year was perimeter defense. He was incredibly impactful and I know there's numbers out there to back that up. And just the eye test, he was easily our best perimeter defender until Keon showed up at the end of the year.

What are you seeing that he can't guard wings? I and a lot people would say that's probably the most exciting development on his game last year. I mean, dude was checking steph and Mitchell throughout the year for goodness sake. What more versatility do we want from him?

Calling him a stretch 4 is just sticking to what his prospect profile was. He's completely debunked that the last 2 years

I didn’t say he can’t guards wings but his sweet spot is 3-4. Getting a 2-3 defender between he and Keon makes for a pretty good wing defensive team to put around Sabonis.

 

[sactowndog]

Do you mean as a sign-and-trade? I don't think there's any technical reason an Early Bird contract can't be a S&T, but I think it's overwhelmingly clear that's not what is happening here.

He will be eligible to be traded Dec. 15th like all summer free agent signings.

just curious if a sign and trade is structurally impossible.

I could see the following scenario being possible, not going to comment on probability

kings: S&T Monk and 13
Pels: Ingram and 17

 

[sactowndog]

Phoenix wants seconds so Mitchell and seconds would give them at least one NBA ready player instead of crossed fingers.

I guess we'll see how valued/undervalued draft picks really are this year soon enough.

yeah why probably take back Little which also saves them a 1M

 

[twslam07]

Phoenix wants seconds so Mitchell and seconds would give them at least one NBA ready player instead of crossed fingers.

I guess we'll see how valued/undervalued draft picks really are this year soon enough.

Oh well if there are 2nds involved that could very well balance the trade, but he just mentioned Mitchell for #22 which I think is a bit farfetched.

 

[hrdboild]

Phoenix wants seconds so Mitchell and seconds would give them at least one NBA ready player instead of crossed fingers.

I guess we'll see how valued/undervalued draft picks really are this year soon enough.

#22 may be a bit high for Mitchell, but Phoenix does need a PG and they don't need more scoring so a defensive specialist at that position makes a lot of sense for them. I can sortof see it happening.

As much as I like Mitchell, it's obvious that we have too many players stacked up in the guard positions and there's a good chance the BPA at #13 this year is another guard so one way to maneuver this year's draft without creating more roster balance issues would be to take a high ceiling player at #13 -- someone we can see developing into a starter, a high value bench player, or a significant trade chip in the next few years -- and then trade Mitchell for a pick in the 20s if we can use that pick to draft Missi, Holmes, or Dunn. Then we maximize the value of our lotto pick while also getting a plus defender at either the forward or center position where we desperately need one.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

#22 may be a bit high for Mitchell, but Phoenix does need a PG and they don't need more scoring so a defensive specialist at that position makes a lot of sense for them. I can sortof see it happening.

As much as I like Mitchell, it's obvious that we have too many players stacked up in the guard positions and there's a good chance the BPA at #13 this year is another guard so one way to maneuver this year's draft without creating more roster balance issues would be to take a high ceiling player at #13 -- someone we can see developing into a starter, a high value bench player, or a significant trade chip in the next few years -- and then trade Mitchell for a pick in the 20s if we can use that pick to draft Missi, Holmes, or Dunn. Then we maximize the value of our lotto pick while also getting a plus defender at either the forward or center position where we desperately need one.

This board is always down on Mitchell and I don't think he is a player we should just throw in to a deal (lord help me over on reddit right now with all the throw ins and salary dumps so we can have the full MLE people talking about) but he really seems like someone Phoenix would value and for pick 22 and Dunn even if we throw in a second pick (or two?) if we have a few other moves this season I think I like it, now that Monk is set for 4 years.