Kings picking 13th overall (formerly the draft lotto thread)
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Jdbraver137
Bench
For a second rounder?
CarlosBob
G-League
I think he is gone at the end of the first. I can see the Knicks selecting him at #24 or #25. If his shot is fixed he'll be the steal of the draft.
Telemachus
Starter
The problem is that his shot needs a lot of fixing.
CarlosBob
G-League
Like many other players I think, even other players in this draft like Holland, Buzellis or Carter in his first years at college. This was his first season with starter minutes and onlye try 1 3pt shot per game, it's harder to solve things when you don't try. The year before he was 5/16 from 3, 31%.
Fox with Kentucky had a 24% 3pt season. Davion in his first college season 28%. Even one of our best shooters, Keegan, was 29%
I don't know why he can't improve with the years, sure he'll never be an elite shooter but maybe a 34/35% one which can make him a starter level player with his terrific defense why not? Herb Jones shot at 29, 26, 07!!% before his senior year when he shot 35% and now is a +40% in the max level.
Jdbraver137
Bench
The problem is we are in win now mode. We have to get impact right away.
Telemachus
Starter
Have you watched him shoot? His shot needs to be completely dismantled and then put back together. If teams thought they could easily fix his shot, he would be a lottery pick.
That's a difficult thing to find in the draft. You either trade the pick for a win now player or just draft whoever you think will wind up being the best player in the end. The odds of a rookie being impactful enough to help the team get into the 2nd round of the playoffs when you're picking at 13 is really slim.
Section 101
All-Star
Where are people getting this win now mode? Monte has always said he's building for long term and flexibility. Just because the team has had 2 winning seasons doesn't mean you change your approach. In fact you stick to it since it's working.
CarlosBob
G-League
I don't know, some people partly blame the team's horrible offensive game ans its lack of space. Some said that Dunn started with bad % at te beggining of the season and this made him reluctant to shoot. So maybe it could be also a mentally issue, which could be reparable with confidence and help. I know he had really bad results at the Combine but I don't know, I think I can't see any other prospect able to be an elite player in one of sides of the game as much as him and maybe this makes it worth trying.
Maybe not with the #13 but in a trade back with the 2 Knicks picks if they are interested in that kind of deal or our 2nd this year and the Portland second of next year for a late first if he is still on the board... why not?
Telemachus
Starter
When judging a player's shot, I usually look at two main things. First, how do their mechanics look. His look bad. Secondly, how do they miss. If a player comes up short or long, that's usually corrected with practice. If he misses to one side, there are likely things you can change that might correct it. When they miss all over the place, you are usually in trouble. Unfortunately, Dunn falls into the last group.
Jdbraver137
Bench
I think where we get it is that our stars are now in their primes and if you want to get into the playoffs especially in the west the time is now. Why would we want to draft a rookie that takes 3 years to develop. The only other strategy is trading fox and Sabonis and starting over. The Kings tried to compete in those 15 losing seasons by not having a group mature at the same time.
Jdbraver137
Bench
This is why if we do keep the pick, which I hope we don’t, Monte has a history of drafting the more mature players.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Monte hasn't said it outright but he's definitely been pushing back on the notion that this team is years away. With where the Kings cap is heading, the ages of Fox, Domas, and even Murray actually, the time to start getting to the upper tier is now. I mean if Monk came back at his high end contract and the Kings don't dump some money they are already going to be a luxury tax team. That's not where Monte wants to be sitting at being a mid to upper 40's win team. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean 13 has to be out the window. That depends entirely on the value of that pick in a draft that seemingly has better potential solid NBA players than value from the looks of it.
Dunn's mechanics are pretty bad. Buzelis didn't shoot well in the GLeague, but his form and mechanics are pretty solid, which is why I believe more in him becoming a good shooter at the NBA level. Dunn is significantly older and will need an overhaul.
Because as good as he is defensively, he's just not playable in today's NBA right now. Depending on the cost, he might be worth a trade up to a late 1st/early 2nd, but I wouldn't gamble heavily on him developing a jumper. We've seen that go poorly with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Josh Jackson etc. And even when guys DO develop a reliable jumper, it's usually not the team that drafts them that reaps the benefits, but usually the next team that signs them after their rookie deal.
Because as good as he is defensively, he's just not playable in today's NBA right now. Depending on the cost, he might be worth a trade up to a late 1st/early 2nd, but I wouldn't gamble heavily on him developing a jumper. We've seen that go poorly with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Josh Jackson etc. And even when guys DO develop a reliable jumper, it's usually not the team that drafts them that reaps the benefits, but usually the next team that signs them after their rookie deal.
I’m pretty convinced Carter won’t be there at 13. Holmes, I need to look more into. He certainly has the college numbers and size to address our most glaring need.
If there’s any chance Orlando would consider the Isaac and 18 for one of ours and 13, which is an idea brought up here, I think that would be ideal. I just doubt Orlando would bite.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
You could make an argument Dunn has a better shooting history than Buz. He only has one good shooting year out of the last 4 and it was at Sonrise Christian.
Drafting Dunn at #13 would be malpractice. He's a very similar prospect to Andre Jackson who went 36th last year in a stronger draft.
I like Holmes, but I think you trade down if he's the target. My two guys at #13 are Devin Carter and Bub Carrington. I'd also take Salaun if he's there, but I think he's gone
Fair enough. FWIW, I'm pretty low on Buzelis. If he can't shoot, what does he really bring to the floor beyond some decent help defense? He was touted as a point forward, but I don't see it. His handle is really loose and he gets tunnel vision pretty often.
twslam07
All-Star
Yeah that idea was overwhelming shot down by ORL fans on another forum unfortunately. The majority of them would even turn down Huerter/#13 for Isaac.
I’d love to snag Isaac away but nobody wants to be the team that traded a player away that (if healthy) is a ~$40 mil per year player. I’m becoming more and more pessimistic that we can pry him away (even if we think we’re overpaying).
This is about where I’m at as well. Carter would give us a dog and Bub’s production at his age is hard to pass on. Salaun is a big swing, but if he hits, he perfectly complements Sabonis and Murray. Also - Baja made is OK for me to like DeSilva at 13 as well (even though he doesn’t play with the physicality that I’m looking for - a tall shooter that is a good all around basketball player would look good on the Kings).
For trade downs, I love George and Furphy. They need a lot of development, but tall guys with good basketball IQ and range are good bets to make.
I’ll start my research on Holmes, next.
We're pretty much on the same page except for Geoarge. He has a really interesting skillet, but I struggle to get past the lack of athleticism and the fact that as a 20 year old he couldn't get more playing time (or put up better numbers - just 7.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg and 2.2 apg) on a bad Miami team. Not many guys come into the NBA with that level of productivity and become good players. And the ones that do are promising 18 years olds who just didn't get enough opportunities. I like a lot about George's game, but he's got a lot of red flags IMO.
Section 101
All-Star
Win now mode means trading all your draft capitol for players to win next year. Taking on higher salary vet players. Monte isnt doing that.
And Fox/Sabonis will still be in their primes in 3 years.
Section 101
All-Star
Trading 13 doesn't mean win now. Trading 13 and 2026/2028 for Lavine is a win now move.
Here's the thing with LaVine - either the Bulls want to get out from his contract or they don't. If they DO, then the trade is just for "movable pieces" and shouldn't have to include draft compensation. If they DON'T, then they'll be looking for matching salary in addition to assets like draft picks. The only way I'd consider a trade for LaVine is the former. No reason to overpay to put the team in salary cap hell for a gamble on him.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
No doubt but LaVine realistically shouldn't be getting ANY picks in return. At least not first rounders. That's the only value there unless the Bulls are just going to hang in there. Maybe a team like the Lakers do some wonky stuff but they are way more up against the gun than the Kings are. The issue is if teams like the Warriors or Lakers pull a trade like that off and it works then it might be another year where the Kings have a tough time making it into the post season. My take is either Monte makes a move that condenses the rotation in the form of talent and need, or clears Huerter and Barnes off of his cap sheet for 2025 and goes BPA at 13. Those are the only smart decisions at this juncture even if another run it back proved to be successful. At this point that's a gamble though with less odds.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Exactly. The reality is though the Kings are kind of heading for cap hell anyway. As I pointed out, most good teams get there at some point, it's just the nature of how contracts and cap sheets work in the NBA for successful teams. The trick is to get YOURSELF into that hell BEFORE you can't add much of anything or make the decision on how you get there by targeting talent. Unless you're already a contender that is. Long term either the Kings let key pieces like the Huerter or Barnes or Monk types fall off the books or keep them. Keep them and you might be looking at even more money than if you just condensed all of that into a single player. Unless Monte's plan was to let guys walk over time then that's why he's looking to make that move now. Beal, OG, Siakam, and now 13 and future picks. Unless the rumors aren't true, Monte is trying to make that major haul type of move. The question now is what 13 and the demise of the Kings draft future get him, lol.
Jdbraver137
Bench
At 30/31 they will be nearing the downward slope of their prime. It makes no sense to bring a 19 year old in. If you can get a kuzma or grant that fits the prime window then you do it. It is much better than having half the roster that is two years away from being two years away. If you do that you will forever be stuck in a loop of mediocre basketball. Just look at, OKC and orlando they focused on bringing in players with the same timeline. If we don’t we will continue fighting for playin and late lottery picks. None of which will bring talent.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
If Monte can’t trade the 13 for an upgrade at the 4 then I’d rather he just make a selection and trade a couple future firsts for that upgrade. Names are hard to come by though
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