Kings picking 13th overall (formerly the draft lotto thread)

[funkykingston]

Doesn’t seem like a guy Monte and org would take since Monte and coaching staff needs a contributor now…….reason being the shopping of the pick. Its win now time.

I think it depends. If you move the pick, it's obviously for a win now move. But if you make the pick, I'm not sure any rookie is going to have a huge impact so you may as well go for the one with the most upside either to be an eventual contributor or as a trade chip down the line.

 

[Rain man]

This is starting to feel like deja vu.... I was sure we'd do something meaningful around last year's draft.... then sure we dumped Holmes for a big FA swing..... then sure we'd hear about that big trade at the deadline.... I'm not counting on any of it. Regardless of what everyone says, I think it's quite possible we just end up making the pick on draft night and I end up feeling deflated.

Sounds like you are already there. Nothing like writing off the entire offseason (check notes) before game 2 of the NBA Finals...

 

[Capt. Factorial]

If the actual draft were to play out as that mock suggests, I'd hope that the Thunder would grab Cody Williams to pair with his brother and that Salaun would fall to the Kings. He's definitely a guy I've changed my mind about over the last couple weeks.

Salaun is still incredibly raw, but the more I watch him, the more I like (a) his constant effort on both ends and (b) his continual improvement. He's going to take a while, but he seems coachable and determined to reach his ceiling.

I wish he had more vertical pop (his struggles to finish in traffic and really, really low block numbers speak to that as an issue) but in a weak draft, I think he's a gamble worth taking.

I think I'm going to be over here dying on my own hill, but in terms of gamble in this draft I love Zach Edey. His improvement from his freshman year (couldn't really play, looked stiff, couldn't manage to drag his own ass up an down the court for 15 MPG) to his senior year is impressive (obviously a dominant player in all facets, including the conditioning aspect - I don't think he sat a single second in the championship this year until it was roll-call time). I watched him as a freshman and figured he was big but no way would he ever get drafted, now he's a first-round lock.

His combine agility numbers were surprisingly good, and he apparently showed a midrange jumper (he beat out Filipowski on the shooting drill) that he didn't shoot in college. Obviously a defensive beast in the paint, and a guy who knows his role and isn't going to insist on being the star.

He absolutely destroys smaller guys one-on-one in the post with his size, and he's good at recognition and kickouts to shooters when he's doubled. I think he could step in right away as our backup C and completely prevent opponents from going small. Whether he can play beside Domas is the biggest question. On offense Domas operates well out of the high post and he's a great passer so there could be a lot of assist opportunities for Sabonis there - I can see that working out OK. Defense is a bit scary because it would push Domas out onto the perimeter, but at least you'd have a good shotblocker in the paint to clean up all the guys that drive around Domas.

I'm seeing indications that the league may be making the turn towards huge posts again (keeping up with the Wemby's being a part of it). A guy like Clingan - a decent bit smaller than Edey, worse conditioning, not drastically more mobile - is getting consistent top-5 talk. Just a few years ago Clingan's another guy in the "great college player, no room for his game in the NBA" guy. This may be the curve to keep ahead of while we have a chance. Our franchise C is 6'10" and already undersized - if the league pivots bigger, where are we going to find a 7'5" rim protector?

So yeah, Edey's a gamble, but if we're playing with house money (and it seems a lot of us feel that way) then I'm not at all about gambling on a guard. And I'm not even all that high about gambling on a wing unless there's a real shot at an all-star ceiling. Gamble big.

 

[funkykingston]

I think I'm going to be over here dying on my own hill, but in terms of gamble in this draft I love Zach Edey. His improvement from his freshman year (couldn't really play, looked stiff, couldn't manage to drag his own ass up an down the court for 15 MPG) to his senior year is impressive (obviously a dominant player in all facets, including the conditioning aspect - I don't think he sat a single second in the championship this year until it was roll-call time). I watched him as a freshman and figured he was big but no way would he ever get drafted, now he's a first-round lock.

His combine agility numbers were surprisingly good, and he apparently showed a midrange jumper (he beat out Filipowski on the shooting drill) that he didn't shoot in college. Obviously a defensive beast in the paint, and a guy who knows his role and isn't going to insist on being the star.

He absolutely destroys smaller guys one-on-one in the post with his size, and he's good at recognition and kickouts to shooters when he's doubled. I think he could step in right away as our backup C and completely prevent opponents from going small. Whether he can play beside Domas is the biggest question. On offense Domas operates well out of the high post and he's a great passer so there could be a lot of assist opportunities for Sabonis there - I can see that working out OK. Defense is a bit scary because it would push Domas out onto the perimeter, but at least you'd have a good shotblocker in the paint to clean up all the guys that drive around Domas.

I'm seeing indications that the league may be making the turn towards huge posts again (keeping up with the Wemby's being a part of it). A guy like Clingan - a decent bit smaller than Edey, worse conditioning, not drastically more mobile - is getting consistent top-5 talk. Just a few years ago Clingan's another guy in the "great college player, no room for his game in the NBA" guy. This may be the curve to keep ahead of while we have a chance. Our franchise C is 6'10" and already undersized - if the league pivots bigger, where are we going to find a 7'5" rim protector?

So yeah, Edey's a gamble, but if we're playing with house money (and it seems a lot of us feel that way) then I'm not at all about gambling on a guard. And I'm not even all that high about gambling on a wing unless there's a real shot at an all-star ceiling. Gamble big.

I like Edey. I think most of the current mocks currently underrate him and overrate Clingan.

But for a team like the Kings who need to perpetually be finding talent in the draft to either bolster the roster or have trade assets it's always tough for me to use a first round pick (especially a late lottery pick, even in an admittedly weak draft) on a situational player. It just feels like a luxury we can't afford.

Haliburton was never a great fit next to Fox, but he's what allowed McNair to go get Sabonis. Drafting Edey will get you, Zach Edey. That's a useful player in certain contexts and matchups, but it's not going to move the franchise forward.

Especially so in my view because I absolutely don't think you can play him with Domas and not get killed on defense or destroy the spacing on offense.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799084202870337869

absolutely not a Monte guy but someone who we pretty should take on principle if he somehow lasts to 13

 

[Capt. Factorial]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799084202870337869

absolutely not a Monte guy but someone who we pretty should take on principle if he somehow lasts to 13

Somewhere out there, there's a GM saying "I can fix his guide hand"

 

[Tetsujin]

Somewhere out there, there's a GM saying "I can fix his guide hand"

Absolute outlier of a situation but it worked for Kawhi.
I mean, maybe this is just recency bias from watching Jaylen Brown look absolutely awesome in this entire postseason but there is an absolute clear template for a wing with Holland’s size, motor, and game feel to succeed and that’s a sort of guy that all 32 teams in the league could use.

 

[macadocious]

Absolute outlier of a situation but it worked for Kawhi.
I mean, maybe this is just recency bias from watching Jaylen Brown look absolutely awesome in this entire postseason but there is an absolute clear template for a wing with Holland’s size, motor, and game feel to succeed and that’s a sort of guy that all 32 teams in the league could use.

did expansion get approved and I missed it?

 

[funkykingston]

I have no idea how valid this is, but there's been a fair amount of chatter that teams have concerns about Holland's mental makeup.

Read into that what you will (and I obviously have no insight as to whether that's true) but it would explain why his value among GMs and front offices seems to be significantly lower than among outside observers, fans, Draft Twitter etc.

 

[ockingsfan]

I think I'm going to be over here dying on my own hill, but in terms of gamble in this draft I love Zach Edey. His improvement from his freshman year (couldn't really play, looked stiff, couldn't manage to drag his own ass up an down the court for 15 MPG) to his senior year is impressive (obviously a dominant player in all facets, including the conditioning aspect - I don't think he sat a single second in the championship this year until it was roll-call time). I watched him as a freshman and figured he was big but no way would he ever get drafted, now he's a first-round lock.

His combine agility numbers were surprisingly good, and he apparently showed a midrange jumper (he beat out Filipowski on the shooting drill) that he didn't shoot in college. Obviously a defensive beast in the paint, and a guy who knows his role and isn't going to insist on being the star.

He absolutely destroys smaller guys one-on-one in the post with his size, and he's good at recognition and kickouts to shooters when he's doubled. I think he could step in right away as our backup C and completely prevent opponents from going small. Whether he can play beside Domas is the biggest question. On offense Domas operates well out of the high post and he's a great passer so there could be a lot of assist opportunities for Sabonis there - I can see that working out OK. Defense is a bit scary because it would push Domas out onto the perimeter, but at least you'd have a good shotblocker in the paint to clean up all the guys that drive around Domas.

I'm seeing indications that the league may be making the turn towards huge posts again (keeping up with the Wemby's being a part of it). A guy like Clingan - a decent bit smaller than Edey, worse conditioning, not drastically more mobile - is getting consistent top-5 talk. Just a few years ago Clingan's another guy in the "great college player, no room for his game in the NBA" guy. This may be the curve to keep ahead of while we have a chance. Our franchise C is 6'10" and already undersized - if the league pivots bigger, where are we going to find a 7'5" rim protector?

So yeah, Edey's a gamble, but if we're playing with house money (and it seems a lot of us feel that way) then I'm not at all about gambling on a guard. And I'm not even all that high about gambling on a wing unless there's a real shot at an all-star ceiling. Gamble big.

Agreed. The league is a copycat league. When they see someone succeeding a certain way (i.e. GSW) all the teams try to mimic the same type of success. If all of the sudden the Kings go big-big (with Domas and Edey) and win and go deep in the playoffs, the other teams will try to copy and mimic what the Kings are doing. We saw success with a big KAT-Gobert front court in Minnesota this year, so there is precedence for going all-timber in the post and they almost got to the Finals.

Sure it's a gamble, but at #13, you can't teach 7'5" with great touch and feel around the basket, rim protection and also a possibility to develop a 3 point game. Edey has the potential to change the momentum of the league all together.

 

[hrdboild]

Somewhere out there, there's a GM saying "I can fix his guide hand"

He's such a good defender that I think you have to take him if he's on the board. If I'm Atlanta I would even consider taking him at #1. Sarr can help to anchor a team defensively in the middle which is arguably more important but every team needs a switchable wing defender or three regardless of who they have at the C position and with his athleticism, size, and playmaking skills the only thing wrong with Ron Holland is his jumpshot, which isn't even that terrible. The set up and follow-through look good to me. Shooting 24% in the G-League at the same distance as the NBA 3pt line is probably about the same as shooting 30-34% in the NCAA.

 

[The_Jamal]

I think I'm going to be over here dying on my own hill, but in terms of gamble in this draft I love Zach Edey. His improvement from his freshman year (couldn't really play, looked stiff, couldn't manage to drag his own ass up an down the court for 15 MPG) to his senior year is impressive (obviously a dominant player in all facets, including the conditioning aspect - I don't think he sat a single second in the championship this year until it was roll-call time). I watched him as a freshman and figured he was big but no way would he ever get drafted, now he's a first-round lock.

His combine agility numbers were surprisingly good, and he apparently showed a midrange jumper (he beat out Filipowski on the shooting drill) that he didn't shoot in college. Obviously a defensive beast in the paint, and a guy who knows his role and isn't going to insist on being the star.

He absolutely destroys smaller guys one-on-one in the post with his size, and he's good at recognition and kickouts to shooters when he's doubled. I think he could step in right away as our backup C and completely prevent opponents from going small. Whether he can play beside Domas is the biggest question. On offense Domas operates well out of the high post and he's a great passer so there could be a lot of assist opportunities for Sabonis there - I can see that working out OK. Defense is a bit scary because it would push Domas out onto the perimeter, but at least you'd have a good shotblocker in the paint to clean up all the guys that drive around Domas.

I'm seeing indications that the league may be making the turn towards huge posts again (keeping up with the Wemby's being a part of it). A guy like Clingan - a decent bit smaller than Edey, worse conditioning, not drastically more mobile - is getting consistent top-5 talk. Just a few years ago Clingan's another guy in the "great college player, no room for his game in the NBA" guy. This may be the curve to keep ahead of while we have a chance. Our franchise C is 6'10" and already undersized - if the league pivots bigger, where are we going to find a 7'5" rim protector?

So yeah, Edey's a gamble, but if we're playing with house money (and it seems a lot of us feel that way) then I'm not at all about gambling on a guard. And I'm not even all that high about gambling on a wing unless there's a real shot at an all-star ceiling. Gamble big.

I think Edey works for a TON of teams...but it's just hard to see a premium asset used on a guy more than likely resigned to 12-15 MPG behind our franchise player. If there was even a slim hope you could see it work longterm with him at the 5, Domas at the 4, I'd gamble. But Edey just doesn't seem like that dude, even in a best case scenario for Edey

 

[funkykingston]

I think Edey works for a TON of teams...but it's just hard to see a premium asset used on a guy more than likely resigned to 12-15 MPG behind our franchise player. If there was even a slim hope you could see it work longterm with him at the 5, Domas at the 4, I'd gamble. But Edey just doesn't seem like that dude, even in a best case scenario for Edey

At this point I don't think there's a chance he's still on the board, but my favorite fit for Edey is the Knicks. Thibs and Brunson would love him, especially for the screens he'd set.

I think the Grizzlies will try to trade up for Clingan since they need that big body after trading Steven Adams. If they aren't able to, I wouldn't be shocked if they just took Edey at 9.

 

[The_Jamal]

At this point I don't think there's a chance he's still on the board, but my favorite fit for Edey is the Knicks. Thibs and Brunson would love him, especially for the screens he'd set.

I think the Grizzlies will try to trade up for Clingan since they need that big body after trading Steven Adams. If they aren't able to, I wouldn't be shocked if they just took Edey at 9.

Okc makes a ton of sense for Edey too. He's like perfect to fix all the problems they showed in the playoffs, you can play him with Chet in like a 22-25 MPG role

 

[ESP47]

I watched a Stockton game when they played Holland and he really jumped off the screen as a guy with a ton of potential. I'd absolutely take him if he fell to us.

 

[CarlosBob]

The most I watch Bub Carrington the most I am intrigued about him. I think he can become a top player in this draft, even a star in the NBA in the future. He has the size, he can create for him and for teanmates and is the youngest player of the draft. I finally don't see any PF player who can solve all the things we need in our range so I would go with the best upside player we can get, and I think that is Carrington.

I see Shai vibes in his game. He has to improve in finishing at the rim, catch and shoot 3s and in defense a bit, but he has the tools.

Maybe #13 is a small reach but he is climbing in mocks. If we could swap picks with the Magic in a trade of Isaac and Huerter and then pick Bub with the #18 could be a perfect move in my opinion.

 

[ockingsfan]

I like Edey. I think most of the current mocks currently underrate him and overrate Clingan.

But for a team like the Kings who need to perpetually be finding talent in the draft to either bolster the roster or have trade assets it's always tough for me to use a first round pick (especially a late lottery pick, even in an admittedly weak draft) on a situational player. It just feels like a luxury we can't afford.

Haliburton was never a great fit next to Fox, but he's what allowed McNair to go get Sabonis. Drafting Edey will get you, Zach Edey. That's a useful player in certain contexts and matchups, but it's not going to move the franchise forward..

Especially so in my view because I absolutely don't think you can play him with Domas and not get killed on defense or destroy the spacing on offense.

If Monte feels that Edey is BPA, I think you take him and figure it out later.

The problem with Domas at the 5 is that he is not a defensive anchor and never will be. For the franchise to move forward, I feel we have to get that defensive anchor at the 4 or 5 to erase mistakes by other players and stand in the way of players strolling in to the hoop. Like Capt said earlier, if a player gets past Domas on the perimeter, Edey would be there to erase a lot of those mistakes at the rim.

The main problem with a Domas-Edey combo would be Domas reluctance to shoot more from the 3, which we know he is capable of. If Edey proves to be a stud offensive and defensive anchor that can eventually get you 18-20 pts, 10-12 reb and 2+ blocks per game, then you either get Domas to open up his 3 point shooting game or you can move Domas for that stud wing that we need.

If Edey proves to be a game changer, then Domas needs to either evolve his game or he can become that mega trade chip to upgrade the wing.

 

[CarlosBob]

The most I watch Bub Carrington the most I am intrigued about him. I think he can become a top player in this draft, even a star in the NBA in the future. He has the size, he can create for him and for teanmates and is the youngest player of the draft. I finally don't see any PF player who can solve all the things we need in our range so I would go with the best upside player we can get, and I think that is Carrington.

I see Shai vibes in his game. He has to improve in finishing at the rim, catch and shoot 3s and in defense a bit, but he has the tools.

Maybe #13 is a small reach but he is climbing in mocks. If we could swap picks with the Magic in a trade of Isaac and Huerter and then pick Bub with the #18 could be a perfect move in my opinion.

I really really lik this dude. 6'6'' with a 6'8'' wingspan

P.S: He is the second cousin of Rudy Gay

 

[TaxMan]

Sounds like you are already there. Nothing like writing off the entire offseason (check notes) before game 2 of the NBA Finals...

Quite a leap to think my comment implied I’m writing off the season…geesh. Congrats, Internet hyperbole at its best.

 

[funkykingston]

I really really lik this dude. 6'6'' with a 6'8'' wingspan

P.S: He is the second cousin of Rudy Gay

I'm a big Bub Carrington fan. I continue to be surprised by mocks that have JaKobe Walter higher than him.

And I love the idea of trading for Isaac and taking him at 18.

 

[jiimbob]

I'm a big Bub Carrington fan. I continue to be surprised by mocks that have JaKobe Walter higher than him.

And I love the idea of trading for Isaac and taking him at 18.

That does sound good, but Bub seems to be gathering traction and likely won’t be there at 18.

 

[The_Jamal]

I'm a big Bub Carrington fan. I continue to be surprised by mocks that have JaKobe Walter higher than him.

And I love the idea of trading for Isaac and taking him at 18.

Walter is on my do not draft list. Goes to the same school of a James Bouknight, where he takes big USG and is inefficient with it. But has a "bag", so makes it ok?

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Walter is on my do not draft list. Goes to the same school of a James Bouknight, where he takes big USG and is inefficient with it. But has a "bag", so makes it ok?

I don't think Walter is high USG - at 23.4% he ties for 25th/26th/27th on the current 58-man board on Tankathon (easiest place I know that lists USG on their board). Bouknight, if he were in this year's draft, would be 4th at 31.6%. Walter's efficiency has been poor, but his USG doesn't really resemble Bouknight's.

 

[LPKingsFan]

That does sound good, but Bub seems to be gathering traction and likely won’t be there at 18.

Yeah, I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately, and maybe I’m overly influenced by 2013, but I want to say that “bad” drafts lend themselves to a lot of chaos and surprise picks. Which to me means two things: first, I hope the Kings keep the pick, or at least don’t trade out of the first round entirely, because there is opportunity in chaos if you are prepared. And, second, I don’t think you can get too cute in trading down if there’s someone you have your heart set on. If it’s more like, I’d feel great about any one of these five guys and I know one will be there later? Then go for it.

 

[The_Jamal]

I don't think Walter is high USG - at 23.4% he ties for 25th/26th/27th on the current 58-man board on Tankathon (easiest place I know that lists USG on their board). Bouknight, if he were in this year's draft, would be 4th at 31.6%. Walter's efficiency has been poor, but his USG doesn't really resemble Bouknight's.

Interesting, I thought 23.6 is like a #2 option in the NBA, but maybe thats not even true anymore either. Still, not a huge fan of the archetype;inefficient guards

 

[jiimbob]

Yeah, I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately, and maybe I’m overly influenced by 2013, but I want to say that “bad” drafts lend themselves to a lot of chaos and surprise picks. Which to me means two things: first, I hope the Kings keep the pick, or at least don’t trade out of the first round entirely, because there is opportunity in chaos if you are prepared. And, second, I don’t think you can get too cute in trading down if there’s someone you have your heart set on. If it’s more like, I’d feel great about any one of these five guys and I know one will be there later? Then go for it.

I suppose if the Kings want to swap an established player and the 13th for Isaac and the 18th they can make the deal contingent on that their player is available at 18. But then you better be happy with the 13th pick in case it falls apart. Likely too tricky.
Just reread your post and see you gave it a multiple player cushion. Makes more sense. I need to put on my readers if i’m going to continue using this small print iPad.
Anyways I liked the idea as Bub and Isaac could be an impressive draft day score

 

[CarlosBob]

I like more the prospects outside the lottery in the majority of this year mocks.

I like Carrington, McCain, Smith, Holmes, Furphy, Da Silva, Filipowski, Dadiet, Djurisic and Dunn

Not my guys: Risacher, Salaun, Ware, Walter, Missi, George, Collier or Knecht.

And I am sceptical with Williams, Holland and Buzelis if they fall. Maybe for the upside but I don't know.

At the moment I would lean for one of Carrington, McCain or Furphy and try to find our defensive PF via trade or FA.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Interesting, I thought 23.6 is like a #2 option in the NBA, but maybe thats not even true anymore either. Still, not a huge fan of the archetype;inefficient guards

In the NBA that's fair - for instance last year that would slot in between Monk (25.9) and Domas (22.2) but well low of Fox (31.0). But a guy who is at kind of #2 option usage in college is really unlikely to get anything near to that in the pros.

But Walter isn't at the top of my list either. I see him as more of a small wing than a guard, and I don't feel like he creates his own shot very well. Late in the season he had a few days when his jumper looked real wet though.

 

[Rain man]

Quite a leap to think my comment implied I’m writing off the season…geesh. Congrats, Internet hyperbole at its best.

I said you were writing off the offseason, not the entire season, and the post I quoted from you was clearly writing off the offseason and stating that we weren’t going to make any moves…

 

[TaxMan]

I said you were writing off the offseason, not the entire season, and the post I quoted from you was clearly writing off the offseason and stating that we weren’t going to make any moves…

Ok….well, since I’m the only one that knows what’s inside my mind, I can tell you I’m not but bracing myself for the feeling of disappointment.