Jerichoholic
Bench
Just to begin I want to preface this by saying that this thread is going to lean a bit on the negative, but it's what I believe is the truth about what this offseason will look like and how I have thought from the very beginning. I'm curious to see if many of you have felt the same way or do now. If you disagree please say why and I hope you're right. So here we go.
If you remember when the season ended there was talk of a major overhaul of this roster by just about everyone, Ranadive, Divac, Karl, etc. I remember listening to Napear and he was predicting a change of perhaps 9 to 10 players, I think Karl mentioned something along of the lines of 7 to 8 players. A few weeks before the draft Karl was interviewed again and he said he definitely planned on change, perhaps something like 4 to 5 new players. Now that the draft is behind us the talk of major overhaul has seemed to disappear and the talk has shifted to what one player can we get with our measly $8 million under the salary cap, who can we convince to come here to this mess? So here are the moves I think will be made.
Signing Rajon Rondo (1-Year, $7 million): This will take most of our cap space, but he is a big name so he should get it, that's how it works. It's a perfect Kings move simply because it's a bad move. However it's realistic because nobody else wants this guy, can you blame them? He might be the guy with the worst attitude in the entire league and coming off a bad injury. You saw the results last year, hardly played well at all, shot even worse than before if that is possible, and he certainly didn't endear himself to his teammates. His best years are when he played with 3 hall of fame caliber players, hard to believe I know. Now even though we are trying to build something here in Sacramento we will sign a guy who is using us for one year to get his career back on track and best case scenario is he actually does better than expected and then packs his bags at the end of the year and we end up with nothing, big win for us!
Re-sign Omri Casspi (3-Year, $9 million): Just a note, my salary numbers won't be perfect, I'm ballparking it here, I figure with exemptions I should be close. Not a new player, he wants to stay, I'm not sure he is one of Karl's first choices, but he can get something out of him. Not a new player so this really isn't part of a roster overhaul at all. He will get some bench minutes, but that's about it, probably will play much less than last year.
Signing Quincy Acy (1-Year, $1 million): He likes it here, he is an energy guy, a poor man's Kenneth Faried so it has to work. Not a big risk and not a big splash, he will get spot minutes on some nights. Perhaps his best use will be in practice where he can bring energy and get effort from guys who actually will play in games.
Here is how I see our lineups at the start of the season.
PG: Rajon Rondo - I don't know if he'll earn it, but the name gets him the job.
SG: Ben McLemore - Hopefully he continues to improve, there is no one else.
SF: Rudy Gay - Goes back to his normal position because of my next note on Thompson.
PF: Jason Thompson - Wins back his starting job by coming into camp in amazing shape and performing well in the preseason just like every year. He will lose this job during the season at some point also just like every year.
C: DeMarcus Cousins - Obviously.
PG: Darren Collison - Will play with Rondo a lot, but either way here is a big improvement over Andre Miller and Ray McCallum.
SG: Nik Stauskas - Who else?
SF: Omri Casspi - Just re-signed him and also, who else?
PF: Quincy Acy - Carl Landry may never play with us again, lets take bets on what body part gets hurt next time. Doesn't matter though, Acy won't play much either, time split among Thompson, Cousins, and Cauley-Stein.
C: Cauley-Stein - Should start with Cousins, but will come off the bench because Karl doesn't like playing rookies and Thompson will look amazing in preseason. He may start at some point during the season when Thompson falls off if Karl isn't too stubborn.
I'll finish off here by listing scenarios that have been mentioned, but won't happen and why.
Trades in General: The Kings are simply not an aggressive trading team, never have been, never will be for whatever reason. More importantly, what are they going to trade? Cousins is staying for sure and I would think Gay is as well. If they decide to trade Gay then they are going to have some serious scoring issues and I don't think his value around the league is as high as a lot of people like to think anyway. We just used our first round pick and there is virtually no value for McLemore and Stauskas, trades just aren't possible.
Danny Green: Perfect fit for sure, not a chance it happens. He will probably get something along the lines of $7 million to $10 million so he might be out of our price range anyway, but if even if he isn't there is a lot of demand for him around the league, he can choose his destination. He wants to play for a winner in a stable situation, he gets neither here.
Monta Ellis: Not a perfect fit, but a good one in Karl's system, but it doesn't matter either. I can copy and paste the above about Green as it applies here as well.
Jeremy Lin: Not impossible actually, but if we sign Rondo there is no need and no money. If we don't sign Rondo this could work. He is somewhat local and his value has gradually dropped from his famous days with the Knicks. He is a decent backup PG who we would have to overpay, which makes it realistic, if Rondo doesn't happen look for this one to happen.
Wesley Matthews: I'll make this quick, not enough money.
The bottom line is this, we won't be making any signings for awhile, players are holding out for more money and better situations right now and that will take some time. The Kings are going to have to settle for scraps, it's just the truth. Best case a good player way overvalues himself, holds out too long, and the Kings are the only team left with money so he has to come here. Most likely near the end of free agency the Kings pick up a player or two who are fringe NBA players, but can lightly contribute with something, maybe they can shoot well. Hopefully Karl can get more out of these players than what would be expected.
I apologize for the negative spin of this, it's just what I think will happen. What do you think, am I on the mark here or way off base?
If you remember when the season ended there was talk of a major overhaul of this roster by just about everyone, Ranadive, Divac, Karl, etc. I remember listening to Napear and he was predicting a change of perhaps 9 to 10 players, I think Karl mentioned something along of the lines of 7 to 8 players. A few weeks before the draft Karl was interviewed again and he said he definitely planned on change, perhaps something like 4 to 5 new players. Now that the draft is behind us the talk of major overhaul has seemed to disappear and the talk has shifted to what one player can we get with our measly $8 million under the salary cap, who can we convince to come here to this mess? So here are the moves I think will be made.
Signing Rajon Rondo (1-Year, $7 million): This will take most of our cap space, but he is a big name so he should get it, that's how it works. It's a perfect Kings move simply because it's a bad move. However it's realistic because nobody else wants this guy, can you blame them? He might be the guy with the worst attitude in the entire league and coming off a bad injury. You saw the results last year, hardly played well at all, shot even worse than before if that is possible, and he certainly didn't endear himself to his teammates. His best years are when he played with 3 hall of fame caliber players, hard to believe I know. Now even though we are trying to build something here in Sacramento we will sign a guy who is using us for one year to get his career back on track and best case scenario is he actually does better than expected and then packs his bags at the end of the year and we end up with nothing, big win for us!
Re-sign Omri Casspi (3-Year, $9 million): Just a note, my salary numbers won't be perfect, I'm ballparking it here, I figure with exemptions I should be close. Not a new player, he wants to stay, I'm not sure he is one of Karl's first choices, but he can get something out of him. Not a new player so this really isn't part of a roster overhaul at all. He will get some bench minutes, but that's about it, probably will play much less than last year.
Signing Quincy Acy (1-Year, $1 million): He likes it here, he is an energy guy, a poor man's Kenneth Faried so it has to work. Not a big risk and not a big splash, he will get spot minutes on some nights. Perhaps his best use will be in practice where he can bring energy and get effort from guys who actually will play in games.
Here is how I see our lineups at the start of the season.
PG: Rajon Rondo - I don't know if he'll earn it, but the name gets him the job.
SG: Ben McLemore - Hopefully he continues to improve, there is no one else.
SF: Rudy Gay - Goes back to his normal position because of my next note on Thompson.
PF: Jason Thompson - Wins back his starting job by coming into camp in amazing shape and performing well in the preseason just like every year. He will lose this job during the season at some point also just like every year.
C: DeMarcus Cousins - Obviously.
PG: Darren Collison - Will play with Rondo a lot, but either way here is a big improvement over Andre Miller and Ray McCallum.
SG: Nik Stauskas - Who else?
SF: Omri Casspi - Just re-signed him and also, who else?
PF: Quincy Acy - Carl Landry may never play with us again, lets take bets on what body part gets hurt next time. Doesn't matter though, Acy won't play much either, time split among Thompson, Cousins, and Cauley-Stein.
C: Cauley-Stein - Should start with Cousins, but will come off the bench because Karl doesn't like playing rookies and Thompson will look amazing in preseason. He may start at some point during the season when Thompson falls off if Karl isn't too stubborn.
I'll finish off here by listing scenarios that have been mentioned, but won't happen and why.
Trades in General: The Kings are simply not an aggressive trading team, never have been, never will be for whatever reason. More importantly, what are they going to trade? Cousins is staying for sure and I would think Gay is as well. If they decide to trade Gay then they are going to have some serious scoring issues and I don't think his value around the league is as high as a lot of people like to think anyway. We just used our first round pick and there is virtually no value for McLemore and Stauskas, trades just aren't possible.
Danny Green: Perfect fit for sure, not a chance it happens. He will probably get something along the lines of $7 million to $10 million so he might be out of our price range anyway, but if even if he isn't there is a lot of demand for him around the league, he can choose his destination. He wants to play for a winner in a stable situation, he gets neither here.
Monta Ellis: Not a perfect fit, but a good one in Karl's system, but it doesn't matter either. I can copy and paste the above about Green as it applies here as well.
Jeremy Lin: Not impossible actually, but if we sign Rondo there is no need and no money. If we don't sign Rondo this could work. He is somewhat local and his value has gradually dropped from his famous days with the Knicks. He is a decent backup PG who we would have to overpay, which makes it realistic, if Rondo doesn't happen look for this one to happen.
Wesley Matthews: I'll make this quick, not enough money.
The bottom line is this, we won't be making any signings for awhile, players are holding out for more money and better situations right now and that will take some time. The Kings are going to have to settle for scraps, it's just the truth. Best case a good player way overvalues himself, holds out too long, and the Kings are the only team left with money so he has to come here. Most likely near the end of free agency the Kings pick up a player or two who are fringe NBA players, but can lightly contribute with something, maybe they can shoot well. Hopefully Karl can get more out of these players than what would be expected.
I apologize for the negative spin of this, it's just what I think will happen. What do you think, am I on the mark here or way off base?
