Kings FA Breakdown

[SactoGreg]

I know this site has looked at the many possibilities the Kings face during the offseason, but here are a few of my thoughts about their current FA's. This is not a thread that suggests any "dream" signings or future FA's added to the team. It's purely a look at the current situation and my view on the possible outcomes.

I posted this on another Kings website.

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So the Kings are gonna try and "rebuild", huh?

For those of you that are not worried about what this team will look like come next season, let's just say that Petrie has his work cut out for him. Basically, unless there is/are more than one TDOS, this team won't be in a position to compete for several years.

SONGAILA:
Agent has said he will opt out by 6/30 deadline. The Kings can sign him for 2-6 years, at no more than $4.5 million the first year (Note: A $4.5 million deal would represent approximately a 180% pay raise for Darius).

Is Darius hoping to get more from Sacto and stay, or is he really ready to move on? Also, are other teams willing to pay him more than $4.5 million?

Outlook: I say he stays.

MOBLEY
Indicated last week that he plans on opting out of his last year, which would have paid him over $6.3 million. Obviously believes he can make more per year and land a multi-year deal with another team. Kings cannot pay him under a new deal as the MLE is really all they can offer, unless he takes the player option.

This hurts the Kings more than Cuttino as the organization will get virtually nothing in return for his departure. Also, Cuttino is a good 2 guard at $6 million, compared to many other veteran shooting guards. For this price range, the FA market for 2's looks bleak.

Outlook: He's a goner.

JACKSON
Petrie has already indicated the team will pick up is option. And they should.

Regardless of his history of injuries, few players in the NBA play as hard as Bobby does, and at less than $3.5 million, he is a bargain. In addition, the Kings absolutely need a backup PG for Bibby. Bobby can fulfill this role as well as double as a 2.

Outlook: One more year. After that, it's really up to Bobby.

OSTERTAG
"I may be big, but I'm not dumb".

At $4.4 million, 'nuff said.

Outlook: Another year being head cheerleader.

EVANS
Needless to say, Mo will land a deal with some team that pays him significantly more than his current $620k salary. Will it be the Kings?

With Mobley most likely departing, the 2 guard spot is a huge hole in the Kings lineup. Kevin Martin is still very much a work in progress, and it's likely GP will make an offer to keep the veteran, Evans.

However, Mo has shown over the years that he is willing to move around the globe to get his chance, and he has an opportunity to get a multi-year deal with a team that's ready and willing. The Kings can offer Mo most of the MLE without affecting the salary cap.

Outlook: Depending on what type of salary he'll demand, the Kings stand a good chance at re-signing him. Not sure if the organization will want to burn up all of the team's MLE.

HOUSE
Yes, the Kings need a backup PG for Bibby. Yes, House is related to Bibby. Yes, he seems to love playing for Sacto.

But are the Kings willing to pay House $$$. Not that he will command a lot in terms of salary, but I have to think that GP will be looking at possible alternatives.

Outlook: May retain his services another year for bottom dollar.

DANIELS
Gone.

Outlook: Gone.

STOJAKOVIC
OK, so he's not a FA after this season. But he is after next season.

The Kings had better include Peja in their off-season moves, which should be either a new multi-year deal, or include Peja in the "Trade Sweeps".

Quite honestly, I wouldn't mind either scenario. Peja certainly can contribute to this team, but if he can be used as bait to land another super stud, I say bring it on.

And to finish my thoughts on the Kings off season perils, I leave you (again) with the following lineup. This is who the Kings have under contract going into next season (should there even be a season next year):

PG - Mike Bibby, Bobby Jackson (once they officially pick up his final option)
SG - Kevin Martin
C - Brad Miller, Brian Skinner, Greg Ostertag
SF - Peja S, Corliss Williamson
PF - Kenny Thomas

Oh boy...

 

[stevetaebo]

great read.

boy that sucks. i thought mobley had full bird rights.
i rather sign evans than than darius if it uses our midlevel

oh boy is right...

 

[NoBonus]

great read.

boy that sucks. i thought mobley had full bird rights.
i rather sign evans than than darius if it uses our midlevel

oh boy is right...

Though I am a big fan of Darius, this is one thing I agree with you on 100%. If the Kings are forced to pick, we need Mo Evans more than Darius. We already have Tag, B-52, Corliss, Skinner, and Thomas who can all play the 4 or 5. I am guessing Petrie will be looking for a 2 guard or a 4 this offseason (or both), so I think it also depends on that as well. I feel like there is no way to predict what will happen in the offseason with Petrie at the helm, so no use speculating I guess. I just hope Darius ends up in a real positive situation where the fans enjoy and respect his hustle like we do. (Unlike Matt Barnes and his time in Philly).

 

[SactoGreg]

great read.

boy that sucks. i thought mobley had full bird rights.
i rather sign evans than than darius if it uses our midlevel

oh boy is right...

To clarify, Mobley does give the Kings full bird rights. This means that whatever happens, the Kings will AT A MINIMUM, get relief from the cap for Mobley's salary. However, if he walks, they get no S&T possibilities or a player to show for the relief under the cap.

Darius has "Early Bird Rights", meaning the team can sign him as outlined in my original post without it counting against the cap or using other team exemptions.

The team could indeed use the MLE on Evans to retain him, or use it on another available FA that qualifies. Even better, I'd like to see the Kings use a portion of this to resign Evans, leaving some leftover for another player.

Think "trades" folks.

The reality is that a trade is going to have to happen to give the Kings any chance at improving the situation (without going further over the cap)...

 

[NoBonus]

With the Webber trade designed to create trade flexibility, I think there will be a stunning trade or two (or more) this summer. Odds are, we will all doubt the trades until the season starts (Just like the Hedo/Pollard for Brad Miller trade). There is just no way to predict what will happen.

 

[Kingsgurl]

To clarify, Mobley does give the Kings full bird rights. This means that whatever happens, the Kings will AT A MINIMUM, get relief from the cap for Mobley's salary. However, if he walks, they get no S&T possibilities or a player to show for the relief under the cap.

Good breakdown, depressing, but accurate.
Just to clarify, losing Mobleys salary does NOT put us under the cap, the only 'relief' gained will be to the Maloofs pocket-book as less salary for them to have to pay out.
Essentially, the only way to get under the cap (and I mean far enough under that it actually does us some good, since getting a measly couple mil under does nothing but take away our exceptions, which you only get if you are over the cap) would be to trade away a couple of our big contracts for EXPIRING contracts. It would suck for next year, but position us more flexibly for the year after. That's the long-term 'radical' plan. Doubt they go that route, as they would lose huge chunks of the fan base (not that they wouldn't come back after the Kings got good again, whenever that was)

I'd rather go the make trades to improve this upcoming season route.

 

[Purple Reign]

Good Analysis!!!

There is no way in the world I would pay Songaila the full MLE. If he thinks he can progress in another organization and get paid too, more power to him. But be careful what you ask for all for the love of money.

The bottom line is in order for the Kings to improve this club they have to either:

1. Spend money for a free agent and go way beyond the salary cap and pay luxury.

2. Trade one of your core players and one of the following: Thomas. Skinner, Williamson or Ostertag. And I do believe that Ostertag will be traded considering he is on the last year of his deal.

In my opinion the only untradable on this team is Mike Bibby (and even he can get dealt if the price is off the chart). I do believe that Greg Ostertag will not be on the roster

 

[6th]

I agree that the best hope for the Kings this summer is thru trades. Otherwise it will take much longer to rebuild considering how far over the cap we are.

Very nice work, SactoGreg!! I enjoyed reading your analysis.

p.s. At this point, I don't think anyone is untradeable.

 

[sauce-26]

the only untradeable is bibby. whatever we do, we have to build around him as he is a major key to our success. we will live and die by bibby.

 

[kingkung]

Great and realistic synopsis.

I love the "Peja S" in your lineup. eliminates the confusion of which Peja you are talking about... Peja Z, Peja Q, or Peja S??

Ohh, Peja S. Good, I can now rest assured.

 

[SactoGreg]

Bibby is not safe, either...

Good comments, but to be honest, I think Bibby would make outstanding trade bait.

Don't get me wrong, Bibby is a good player to build a team around, but his value is at an all time high right now, and that opens a lot of office doors of other NBA GMs. Who knows what other team might give away the farm at the thought of obtaining a quality, starting PG? Even better, they may be willing to take on one or more hefty contracts the Kings currently possess!

If GP can obtain some quality talent in return, it could be enough to jump start a new lineup. A good lineup.

Whatever the fallout, a trade has got to happen if this team has any chance to be competitive next season. I'm with KG, I'd rather they go this route than be thinking two to three seasons out...

 

[Kingsgurl]

1. Spend money for a free agent and go way beyond the salary cap and pay luxury.

The only money we can spend on FA acquisitions is our exceptions (MLE, vet mins (didn't we spend the LLE on Darius last year? If so, that's out for this year) ) We CAN'T go out and just 'sign a FA and go way beyond the salary cap' even if we wanted to.

IMO, no one is safe, nor should they be. The goal here is to put a contending team on the floor again. It may be hard to say good-bye to the few we have remaining from the salad days, but that team is dead. A new direction is needed and holding on to the past isn't going to get us back to it.
If the move makes us better, you have to do it, be it saying good-bye to Mike, or Brad or Peja or the whole lot of 'em.
Tough as it is to comprehend, most teams will actually want some of our good players in a deal. Maybe they are just being unfair, but I don't see anyone dealing us a real impact player (and make no mistake, we need one) for Tag, Thomas and/or Skinner. We are going to have to sweeten the deal more than that.

 

[hrdboild]

Just to clarify, losing Mobleys salary does NOT put us under the cap, the only 'relief' gained will be to the Maloofs pocket-book as less salary for them to have to pay out.
Essentially, the only way to get under the cap (and I mean far enough under that it actually does us some good, since getting a measly couple mil under does nothing but take away our exceptions, which you only get if you are over the cap) would be to trade away a couple of our big contracts for EXPIRING contracts.

That's not exactly true (the bit about it only benefitting the Maloof's pocket book). Losing Mobley does not put us under the cap, true, but it gets us considerably closer to being under the cap. If we trade him for 6 million in salary, those contracts will continue to scale up as long as they last which makes us even farther over the cap. Dumping his salary now doesn't net us anything this season, but next season when Bobby and OTag's contracts end, that's 3.4 + 4.4 + 6.4 = 14.2 million dollars off the payroll which is a significant enough chunk of change to put us under. Now if you could trade for another expiring contract too, that's enough cap room to go after a major free agent next summer without losing Peja, Bibby, or Brad. It's not the best of all possible worlds, but it's still a pretty good situation. If that's the plan, it would limit the type of contracts the team is willing to offer this summer too.

 

[SactoGreg]

The more I think about it...

... the more I think the Kings really do need a "Super Star".

A Super Star player brings so much more to the table than selling tickets or putting up quality stats. It gives the rest of the team confidence.

Players respond to leaders, both on the court and in the locker room.

Super Stars possess a certain aura; they obtain instant respect from their peers. It's something the Kings haven't had since the Webber trade, and you could even argue that they never really even had a Super Star. Mitch Richmond is perhaps the next closest to Super Star status?

But when a Super Star gets injured, or gets double-teamed during a playoff series, others tend to step up (I hate that phrase!). And it comes with the territory.

Anyway, it would be nice to land a Super Star. To feel what it's like. To see what kind of an impact he would have with this team.

It could be the only hope for the team to actually compete next season...

 

[SacTownKid]

I think the Kings will be pretty active in the draft moving players for draft picks.

 

[Kingsgurl]

That's not exactly true (the bit about it only benefitting the Maloof's pocket book). Losing Mobley does not put us under the cap, true, but it gets us considerably closer to being under the cap. If we trade him for 6 million in salary, those contracts will continue to scale up as long as they last which makes us even farther over the cap. Dumping his salary now doesn't net us anything this season, but next season when Bobby and OTag's contracts end, that's 3.4 + 4.4 + 6.4 = 14.2 million dollars off the payroll which is a significant enough chunk of change to put us under. Now if you could trade for another expiring contract too, that's enough cap room to go after a major free agent next summer without losing Peja, Bibby, or Brad. It's not the best of all possible worlds, but it's still a pretty good situation. If that's the plan, it would limit the type of contracts the team is willing to offer this summer too.

Ah, that sounds good, doesn't it? Of course, you are talking about a wasted year while we move players for expiring contracts (which is what I said earlier was one option and one I hope we can avoid.....if possible)
Salaries commited, already, for the '06-07 season (this is for 7 players, mind you) is $49,973,452 (call it an even 50 mil) That's without Cat's 'replacement salary (assuming we let him walk with no S and T) without Darius (or whoever we replace him with) or Tag, or Bobby. No House, no Evans, no Daniels (or whoever we get to fill THEIR spots, which we do have to do, since they won't let us play with 7) Still over the cap, even with bigger than projected increases to said cap. Of course then there is the whole issue of what to do with Peja at that time.
If 'getting under the cap' (far enough to make a difference) is the goal, you would have to move some of the bigger contracts we have on the books for EXPIRING contracts.
In a perfect world, some lame team would take all the contracts we don't want, give us some mega star in return (OK, that one is probably not realistic) or we could go radical and get some cap relief by dealing our big name guys for expiring contracts. Then we could be like the other 4 teams in the league who are under the cap, the Hawks, the Jazz, the Bobcats, and New Orleans......lot's of cap room. Of course, they also aren't very good.
It's a rock and hard place situation.

 

[4cwebb]

The problem with this offseason is that there aren't any truly marquee players moving around via free agency, unless you consider Ray Allen to be a marquee players. Whereas last offseason both Shaq and TMac demanded out, and both of those guys are clear #1 options, I don't think there is a clear #1 option on the market this offseason (nor any player in position to put enormous pressure on his team to force a trade ala Shaq or TMac), which means that in all likelihood the Kings will build the team around Bibby, Peja and Miller (not that there's anything wrong with that, per se, but I have a difficult time foreseeing how that puts the Kings back in position to contend for a title).

 

[Kingsgurl]

(not that there's anything wrong with that, per se, but I have a difficult time foreseeing how that puts the Kings back in position to contend for a title).

To me, that IS a problem. I've been there for the 20 win seasons (they sucked, but boy were you glad when they won a game, any game) the highs of actually getting better (problem being you have to be down for a while to get the real satisfaction/joy from the improving phase, but there is nothing quite like it) I haven't been through a DECLINE before, and I'm not liking it. I shall persevere, of course, but I hope it's brief

 

[ParniValjak]

Can anyone tell me whether we can sign Mobley for more than MLE and use him in a sign and trade or just sign him up for more than MLE????

Thanks.

 

[Bricklayer]

Can anyone tell me whether we can sign Mobley for more than MLE and use him in a sign and trade or just sign him up for more than MLE????

Thanks.

We have Bird rights I believe, so we can over the cap to sign him, or to sign him and trade him. MLE is irrelevant in his case. But he's not restricted, so he can sign with anybody he wants outright no matter what we offer.

 

[ParniValjak]

We have Bird rights I believe, so we can over the cap to sign him, or to sign him and trade him. MLE is irrelevant in his case. But he's not restricted, so he can sign with anybody he wants outright no matter what we offer.

Thanks.

So basically if Cat wants to go to a team thats over the cap but can't sign him outright because they only have MLE to work with, we could sign him up to what they are willing to offer and then trade him and we are still left with our MLE to work with???

 

[Kingsgurl]

Yes, whatever we do with Cat's salary, be it sign him or sign and trade him, or just let him walk, does not effect our exceptions, since we have Bird rights on him.*




* I THINK, since the Bird exception was originally put in place to encourage players to stay with the teams they had been with and I can only find reference to Bird rights following a player through A trade, not 2 trades in 2 years, as is the Cat's situation. I'm going to assume they still apply, but you know what they say about assuming

 

[Bricklayer]

Thanks.

So basically if Cat wants to go to a team thats over the cap but can't sign him outright because they only have MLE to work with, we could sign him up to what they are willing to offer and then trade him and we are still left with our MLE to work with???

We could...but only if all the other parties agreed. We have no restrictive rights to him at all, so pretty much unless Cat or the other team invite us to do a sign and trade, it doesn't happen. Particularly with a guy at Cat's level, you have to seriously wonder how much a team would trade to get him via sign and trade. They might be willing to dump a few more bad Corliss type contracts on us attached to middling aging guys or something, but otherwise we have to hope its some team with some disgruntled players they just need to dump, or maybe somebody with one very bad contract they want to be rid of, and they're willing to include a good young player to make it happen.

 

[ParniValjak]

Thanks for the feedback guys

Things are much more clear now.

 

[6th]

The problem with this offseason is that there aren't any truly marquee players moving around via free agency, unless you consider Ray Allen to be a marquee players. Whereas last offseason both Shaq and TMac demanded out, and both of those guys are clear #1 options, I don't think there is a clear #1 option on the market this offseason (nor any player in position to put enormous pressure on his team to force a trade ala Shaq or TMac), which means that in all likelihood the Kings will build the team around Bibby, Peja and Miller (not that there's anything wrong with that, per se, but I have a difficult time foreseeing how that puts the Kings back in position to contend for a title).

Okay, so if there are no marquee as FAs this year, what about marquee players who will be going into the last year of their contract? Teams might want to trade them if they know they are unhappy and would lose them (and get nothing back next year). Then again, would we want to risk losing them next year? I.e. is this something we would even look at?

 

[SactoGreg]

Okay, so if there are no marquee as FAs this year, what about marquee players who will be going into the last year of their contract?

Excellent point, 6th.

The reality is, the Kings (Geoff Petrie) will almost certainly be looking at these types of contracts. It's how they usually happen when you are including high-priced, All-Star-type players in a trade.

It can be risky, but if it were to happen, the Kings would probably try to re-sign said player to a longer contract.

It's times like these (Comcast Sports Network, rising price for season tickets, possible league lockout, Kings roster problems) that I feel better about walking away from my season tickets of 10 years!...

 

[CaminoChaos]

Excellent point, 6th.

The reality is, the Kings (Geoff Petrie) will almost certainly be looking at these types of contracts. It's how they usually happen when you are including high-priced, All-Star-type players in a trade.

It can be risky, but if it were to happen, the Kings would probably try to re-sign said player to a longer contract.

It's times like these (Comcast Sports Network, rising price for season tickets, possible league lockout, Kings roster problems) that I feel better about walking away from my season tickets of 10 years!...

ben wallace is unrestricted next year. there are alot of good free agents next year. i cant post them it says i exceed the 10000 character limit

 

[6th]

ben wallace is unrestricted next year. there are alot of good free agents next year. i cant post them it says i exceed the 10000 character limit

No problem, CaminoChaos. You can split the list between 2 or more posts if you want. That's the only way I know to get it all in.

 

[CaminoChaos]

2006 Free Agents (expiring contracts)Player Team Type
Jason Collier Atlanta Unrestricted F.A.
Tony Delk Atlanta Unrestricted F.A.
Al Harrington Atlanta Unrestricted F.A.
Justin Reed Boston Restricted F.A.
Melvin Ely Charlotte Restricted F.A.
Bernard Robinson Charlotte Restricted F.A.
Tamar Slay Charlotte Unrestricted F.A.
Antonio Davis Chicago Unrestricted F.A.
Eric Piatkowski Chicago Unrestricted F.A.
Drew Gooden Cleveland Restricted F.A.
Lucious Harris Cleveland Unrestricted F.A.
Robert Traylor Cleveland Unrestricted F.A.
Jiri Welsch Cleveland Restricted F.A.
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga Dallas Restricted F.A.
Jason Terry Dallas Unrestricted F.A.
Keith Van Horn Dallas Unrestricted F.A.
Greg Buckner Denver Unrestricted F.A.
Francisco Elson Denver Restricted F.A.
Luis Flores Denver Restricted F.A.
Nene Hilario Denver Restricted F.A.
Voshon Lenard Denver Unrestricted F.A.
Ronald Dupree Detroit Restricted F.A.
Lindsey Hunter Detroit Unrestricted F.A.
Tayshaun Prince Detroit Restricted F.A.
Ben Wallace Detroit Unrestricted F.A.
Calbert Cheaney Golden State Unrestricted F.A.
Mike Dunleavy Golden State Restricted F.A.
Rodney White Golden State Unrestricted F.A.
Vin Baker Houston Unrestricted F.A.
Yao Ming Houston Restricted F.A.
Scott Padgett Houston Unrestricted F.A.
Clarence Weatherspoon Houston Unrestricted F.A.
David Wesley Houston Unrestricted F.A.
Eddie Gill Indiana Unrestricted F.A.
Fred Jones Indiana Restricted F.A.
Reggie Miller Indiana Unrestricted F.A.
Scot Pollard Indiana Unrestricted F.A.
Mamadou N'Diaye L.A. Clippers Unrestricted F.A.
Chris Wilcox L.A. Clippers Restricted F.A.
Chucky Atkins L.A. Lakers Unrestricted F.A.
Caron Butler L.A. Lakers Restricted F.A.
Vlade Divac L.A. Lakers Unrestricted F.A.
Devean George L.A. Lakers Unrestricted F.A.
Jumaine Jones L.A. Lakers Unrestricted F.A.
Stanislav Medvedenko L.A. Lakers Unrestricted F.A.
Antonio Burks Memphis Restricted F.A.
Andre Emmett Memphis Restricted F.A.
Bonzi Wells Memphis Unrestricted F.A.
Lorenzen Wright Memphis Unrestricted F.A.
Rasual Butler Miami Unrestricted F.A.
Keyon Dooling Miami Unrestricted F.A.
Damon Jones Miami Unrestricted F.A.
Shaquille O'Neal Miami Unrestricted F.A.
Qyntel Woods Miami Unrestricted F.A.
Michael Redd Milwaukee Unrestricted F.A.
Sam Cassell Minnesota Unrestricted F.A.
Fred Hoiberg Minnesota Unrestricted F.A.
Michael Olowokandi Minnesota Unrestricted F.A.
Ron Mercer New Jersey Unrestricted F.A.
Clifford Robinson New Jersey Unrestricted F.A.
Jacque Vaughn New Jersey Unrestricted F.A.
Chris Andersen New Orleans Unrestricted F.A.
Speedy Claxton New Orleans Unrestricted F.A.
George Lynch New Orleans Unrestricted F.A.
Jackson Vroman New Orleans Restricted F.A.
Trevor Ariza New York Restricted F.A.
Jackie Butler New York Unrestricted F.A.
Anfernee Hardaway New York Unrestricted F.A.
Tim Thomas New York Unrestricted F.A.
Stacey Augmon Orlando Unrestricted F.A.
Tony Battie Orlando Unrestricted F.A.
Kelvin Cato Orlando Unrestricted F.A.
Doug Christie Orlando Unrestricted F.A.
Mario Kasun Orlando Restricted F.A.
Michael Bradley Philadelphia Unrestricted F.A.
Jamal Mashburn Philadelphia Unrestricted F.A.
John Salmons Philadelphia Restricted F.A.
Steven Hunter Phoenix Unrestricted F.A.
Jimmy Jackson Phoenix Unrestricted F.A.
Walter McCarty Phoenix Unrestricted F.A.
Paul Shirley Phoenix Unrestricted F.A.
Amare Stoudemire Phoenix Restricted F.A.
Jake Voskuhl Phoenix Unrestricted F.A.
Joel Przybilla Portland Unrestricted F.A.
Nick Van Exel Portland Unrestricted F.A.
Cuttino Mobley Sacramento Unrestricted F.A.
Greg Ostertag Sacramento Unrestricted F.A.
Darius Songaila Sacramento Unrestricted F.A.
Robert Horry San Antonio Unrestricted F.A.
Nazr Mohammed San Antonio Unrestricted F.A.
Antonio Daniels Seattle Unrestricted F.A.
Lamond Murray Toronto Unrestricted F.A.
Pape Sow Toronto Restricted F.A.
Aaron Williams Toronto Unrestricted F.A.
Loren Woods Toronto Unrestricted F.A.
Curtis Borchardt Utah Restricted F.A.
Jarron Collins Utah Unrestricted F.A.
Matt Harpring Utah Unrestricted F.A.
Raul Lopez Utah Restricted F.A.
Jared Jeffries Washington Restricted F.A.

 

[mcsluggo]

Okay, so if there are no marquee as FAs this year, what about marquee players who will be going into the last year of their contract? Teams might want to trade them if they know they are unhappy and would lose them (and get nothing back next year). Then again, would we want to risk losing them next year? I.e. is this something we would even look at?

Disgruntled players?

I think that kid Sojakovic from the kings fits that bill, doesn't he? I hear hes got a really pretty shot.