[Game] Kings at Toronto, Wednesday Nov. 6th, 4:30 PM PT/7:30 PM ET

#1
This one is tough. The eye test over the last few games say there is no way the Kings are a 8.5 point dog to the Raps, but the small sample size numbers say the Raps can easily blow out the Kings. Hmm.

Key metrics:

1. Free throws. The Kings shoot 17.25% worse than the Raps at the line on a head to head basis. Relative to the league average, the Kings are -5% while the Raps are +15%. That's likely 30 to 50% of the 8.5 point margin.

2. Rebounds are polar opposites. Head to head, the Kings have a + 35% offensive boarding advantage while the Raps have a 30% defensive boarding advantage. Relative to the league, the Kings are +8% offensive boarding advantage while the Raps are -22%. Relative to the league, the Kings are -12% on defensive boards while the Raps are +13%. So it's likely scheme related, I think.

3. 3 Pointers. Head to head, the Kings shoot 7.56% less threes and make 17.72% less threes than the Raps. Relative to the league, the Kings shoot -1% less threes on 3PTs while the Raps are +22% on 3 Point attempts. But while shooting less, the Kings are still shooting worse than the league at -4% while the Raps are + 12%.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#5
I thought last year that Bagley outplayed Siakam, which said a lot for the 19 year old rookie. IMO, in time we're going to look upon Siakam as a "poor-man's Bagley." Which raises the question: Who is going to guard Siakam tonight? Bjelica doesn't match up in quickness or speed. Maybe coach goes with Barnes on Siakam when the going gets tough? Or maybe it's Ariza.

As far as the rest of the Toronto crew, the 33 year-old Lowry doesn't scare me because Fox, if he plays physical, should more than offset him. The guy that scares me is VanVleet. He's a money player who makes tough shots in big moments of a game. Bogdan has been playing tough D of late. Maybe with his size and smarts he can slow down VanVleet. Joseph also should be able to slow him down because he matches up well with him physically, but then the Kings lose some offense with Joseph on the floor.

If the Kings continue in their tough-D mode, along with moving the ball on offense, they should have a good shot at beating this team tonight. Keep the turnovers to a minimum, please.
 
#7
I thought last year that Bagley outplayed Siakam, which said a lot for the 19 year old rookie. IMO, in time we're going to look upon Siakam as a "poor-man's Bagley." Which raises the question: Who is going to guard Siakam tonight? Bjelica doesn't match up in quickness or speed. Maybe coach goes with Barnes on Siakam when the going gets tough? Or maybe it's Ariza.

As far as the rest of the Toronto crew, the 33 year-old Lowry doesn't scare me because Fox, if he plays physical, should more than offset him. The guy that scares me is VanVleet. He's a money player who makes tough shots in big moments of a game. Bogdan has been playing tough D of late. Maybe with his size and smarts he can slow down VanVleet. Joseph also should be able to slow him down because he matches up well with him physically, but then the Kings lose some offense with Joseph on the floor.

If the Kings continue in their tough-D mode, along with moving the ball on offense, they should have a good shot at beating this team tonight. Keep the turnovers to a minimum, please.
I think this is a very bad matchup for us. Completely agree about Siakam and Bjelica. he will probably have to get off the floor and we will move Barnes up to PF and then maybe Ariza to SF. but Gasol is also a bad matchup. We will see how Holmes does, but my guess is we will need more size aka Dedmon. So we might end up playing Fox Buddy Ariza Barnes Dedmon to match up defensively which is less than optimal ofensively. I will be very impressed if we manage to win this one.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#8
I think this is a very bad matchup for us. Completely agree about Siakam and Bjelica. he will probably have to get off the floor and we will move Barnes up to PF and then maybe Ariza to SF. but Gasol is also a bad matchup. We will see how Holmes does, but my guess is we will need more size aka Dedmon. So we might end up playing Fox Buddy Ariza Barnes Dedmon to match up defensively which is less than optimal ofensively. I will be very impressed if we manage to win this one.
Because of his defense, I think Buddy is the odd man out in the 4th quarter. Should be interesting.
 
#9
i've been watchin most of the raps games this year and they're still legit. Anunobys filled in nicely for Kawhi, hes been a monster defensively. Reminds me of Artest. Lowrys been lighting it up aswell. Should be a fun game.
 

VF21

#KingsFansForever
Staff member
#11
Fox, Hield, Barnes, Bjelica and Holmes

Koz saying Holmes is the new starting center AT LEAST until Bagley returns brings a big smile to my face.
 

VF21

#KingsFansForever
Staff member
#21
I thought last year that Bagley outplayed Siakam, which said a lot for the 19 year old rookie. IMO, in time we're going to look upon Siakam as a "poor-man's Bagley." Which raises the question: Who is going to guard Siakam tonight? Bjelica doesn't match up in quickness or speed. Maybe coach goes with Barnes on Siakam when the going gets tough? Or maybe it's Ariza.

As far as the rest of the Toronto crew, the 33 year-old Lowry doesn't scare me because Fox, if he plays physical, should more than offset him. The guy that scares me is VanVleet. He's a money player who makes tough shots in big moments of a game. Bogdan has been playing tough D of late. Maybe with his size and smarts he can slow down VanVleet. Joseph also should be able to slow him down because he matches up well with him physically, but then the Kings lose some offense with Joseph on the floor.

If the Kings continue in their tough-D mode, along with moving the ball on offense, they should have a good shot at beating this team tonight. Keep the turnovers to a minimum, please.
Looks like you nailed it.
 
#23
Early Raps game plan is to double Buddy whenever he has the ball at the top of perimeter. One turnover, leading to an easy score and another near turnover.
 
#24
Bjelly, not surprisingly, has been a weak link thus far. Missed a layup and has missed two threes. And can’t guard Siakam or OG.
 
#26
Kings are losing control of this game quickly and early. They were scoring well to start, but aside from the first few possessions, their defense is not up to it. Napear said it right, should not be double teaming so early.
 
#27
Kings are losing control of this game quickly and early. They were scoring well to start, but aside from the first few possessions, their defense is not up to it. Napear said it right, should not be double teaming so early.
The margin is 3 to 4 possessions. Raps hitting their shots and the Kings missing there’s. I’m okay with this 1q thus far.