Kings are blowing it with fans
- Thread starter folsomfella
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the whole point of giving omri or donte playing time is so that they hopefully develop into a great player right? someone hopefully as good as...i dunno rudy gay
. if we could get a rudy gay type player, wouldnt that just be getting from point A to point B without having to waste another season seeing if omri or donte live up to expectation? it wouldnt matter about them getting playing time or progressing if we already have that position filled. so it would make this whole argument of them needing playing time pointless.
now i want to make it clear that in no way wanted to overpay for rudy gay or any other free agent. i just wanted to bring up the fact that a lot of people bring up PT for the youngs as an argument but that was my answer to that question. IMO the point of developing the younger players is if you believe they have the potential to be a key piece to the team. to develop into a star. if you believe omri or donte will be better than a FA you can get...i agree pass on the FA and develop them. but if their ceiling is lower than who you can get, PT doesnt matter as long as it isnt just garbage minutes.
. if we could get a rudy gay type player, wouldnt that just be getting from point A to point B without having to waste another season seeing if omri or donte live up to expectation? it wouldnt matter about them getting playing time or progressing if we already have that position filled. so it would make this whole argument of them needing playing time pointless. now i want to make it clear that in no way wanted to overpay for rudy gay or any other free agent. i just wanted to bring up the fact that a lot of people bring up PT for the youngs as an argument but that was my answer to that question. IMO the point of developing the younger players is if you believe they have the potential to be a key piece to the team. to develop into a star. if you believe omri or donte will be better than a FA you can get...i agree pass on the FA and develop them. but if their ceiling is lower than who you can get, PT doesnt matter as long as it isnt just garbage minutes.
Isn't it better to pay for a sure thing (Rudy Gay) if you have the opportunity to do so, rather than hoping that two projects (Donte & Casspi) may get to be as good a player? Because if the projects don't pan out, you would have wasted an entire year trying to 'evaluate', and you'd have lost your shot at the sure thing, which could have been the one missing piece to get you into contention.
There are several reasons why it would be absolutely terrible for the Kings organization to have tried to make an attempt for Rudy Gay this off-season.
( I know the poster I quoted said specifically that he wouldn't have over-paid for a FA, but the fact is that in this particular off-season, all the good FA were either over-paid, or went to teams that could win it all next season. So I'm going to be using Rudy Gay for my examples because I'll be considering Donte/Casspi as the two projects. Gay vs. Donte/Casspi is the best FA vs. Kings Project out there, so it makes the most sense to compare)
1.) CBA
The biggest reason for not opening up the wallet for this King's franchise is all about the new CBA which will be going into effect next year.
The owners, the players, the commissioner, the fans, none of us knows exactly what the details of the new CBA will be.
It could be that the owners completely get their way. This would include things such as:
A.) Hard-cap on the salary. If you have payroll over the hard cap you have to release players
B.) Huge reduction in player salaries, perhaps as much as 50%.
C.) Maximum Length of Contract being 4 years
D.) Only first two years of contract guaranteed.
No-one knows how negotiations are going to play out. Also, no-one has any idea of whether or not existing contracts will somehow be 'grand-fathered' in and therefore be exempt from potential hard-caps.
It's the reason why there may be a lock-out.
So why is this important for the Kings?
Let's say that we paid Rudy Gay 82 million dollars to be our #3 scoring option to pair along-side Tyreke and DMC. It is entirely possible, that when it came to try and extend both Tyreke and DMC, we'd actually have to either release Gay, or lose one of Tyreke or DMC, because we'd be over the hard-cap.
Again, this is theoritical, but since we don't have any idea of what the new CBA will be like, it makes sense to wait and see what all the new rules of the game will be like before we decide to put 1/5 or 1/4 of our total resources into the game.
The simple fact is this: If Petrie and the Maloofs knew exactly what the new CBA entailed, or if there was not going to be a new CBA for the next decade, they might have decided to spend this hard-gained cap-space on an expensive #3 option. But since they don't know, the wisest course of action is to sign one-year deals, and then start making moves to fill voids once the new rules are set in place.
Paying max money on a FA like Gay is akin to saying 'All-In' before you've been dealt your cards and even told what game it is that you're playing.
2.) Do we need to acquire a #3 scorer?
I think it's easy to say something like 'The Kings need to acquire a 3rd scoring option in order to make the next progression as a team."
The fact is, we don't really know that right now.
I think we can all agree that Tyreke will score 20+ next season. I think we can also all agree that Cousins should be a 16-20 point scorer as well.
Landry obviously proved last season that he can put up 16 points consistently. But he's not a jump shooter, and his post-presence may duplicate what Cousins brings, so he may or may not even be on the roster at the end of the season.
Casspi started off last year sizzling from the field. He dropped off rapidly, but perhaps he could provide the 15 points a game needed.
Donte shot is inconsistent, but if he makes the same leap from year 2 to 3 as he did from year 1 to 2, then he certainly could be a 15 point/game scorer.
The Kings Management may believe that they already have that 3rd scorer already on the team. And if they think they do, why on earth would they spend huge sums of money on Gay?
3.) Cost vs Production
Rudy Gay scored a bit under 20 ppg last season in 40 minutes of playgame.
In his first season he scored 10.8 ppg in 27 minutes of play/game.
Donte last year scored 8.5 ppg in 21 minutes of play/game in what you could essentially call his first year of consistent minutes.
Now we know that Greene can become a much better scorer if he becomes more consistent with his shot, which is something we should expect from him given his age and his development arch. We also know that he's a team player who has the ability to be an elite defender, and with increased minutes will be able to increase his scoring output.
What we don't know is if Gay would still be able to get his 20 points/game if put on the Kings. If he becomes the #3 scoring option, would his points increase because he would be left more open, or would his scoring decrease because he gets less touches?
Think of Kevin Martin. What if he was a free-agent, and never had been on Kings? We all know that back-court did not work with Tyreke. But what if management spent 13 million dollars on him to come play with Tyreke and Cousins, and he couldn't maintain his 24 ppg average on our team? We just don't know what Gay's production would be on our team.
Since Donte's scoring output in regards to minutes played in his first 'real' season looks very close to what Gay did in his first 'real' season, I'd rather not pay 82+ million dollars to see if Gay's scoring would increase or decrease.
The fact is that Donte is going to get paid less than 1 million next year. Gay will get payed over 13.5 million next year. I think the production vs. cost is greatly in Donte's favor.
If you're the Kings and you can pay Donte 1 million next year, or Gay 13.5 million next year, which do you think is the better use of the money?
4.) Projects as Resource Investments
Each project on the team (Donte, Casspi, JT, Whiteside) is a resource investment. Management hopes that they will all bring significant value to the team either as a player on the court or as an asset which can be used in trades.
Since the Kings are a young team and not fighting for a championship right now, they have had more access to high quality assets over the last few years. That is the benefit of not being in contention.
Because these assets take time to develop, the best thing management can do is to provide an environment which will help each asset to best fulfill their potential.
If you bring in a player who might have topped out (Gay), you put yourself in a position where you might lose a lot of value in your investment because you have not provided an atmosphere to develop that investment.
So you could essentially have a compound loss:
A.) You lose your investment because you can't provide an environment to allow it to succeed. (Donte and Casspi relegated to 10 minutes/game or less)
B.) You pay extreme money on a sure thing, when you could have payed a fraction of that cost if you'd simply provided the appropriate conditions for your investments to flourish. (Gay earning 82 million over 5 years)
The fact is that Donte, Casspi, JT, Whiteside could all reach their potential. And if they can, then it's serious mis-management by the Front Office if they don't provide what is needed to allow these players to succeed, all the while over-spending on players that they didn't need to sign in the first place.
5.) It's about more than just scoring
I'm going to bring up Kevin again. I really liked him. I felt that he exceed the initial expectations and has become a good basketball player. However, I was happy with the trade, since he wasn't a good fit for our team.
People are saying that we need a 3rd scorer, and bring up players like Gay. Well, Kevin is a great scorer, so using the logic that you'd use to bring in Gay, wouldn't Kevin also appear to be a perfect fit for this team?
The fact is that he didn't fit because he just didn't have the toughness, the grit, the tenacity which it appears that Petrie is using to build this new team. Also, although he was a very effecient scorer, the manner in which he scored his points didn't really mesh with the rest of the team. There isn't any guarantee that things would be different with Gay.
We need players who play defense. Who are going to intimidate their opponents, who are going to win due to sheer tenacity.
Even if Gay or some other free-agent could provide the points, they have to also be able to fit into the new identity of these Kings. They have to provide more than just scoring.
I don't think Gay fits at all with the Kings, other than potentially his scoring. He's a volume shooter, he is athletic, but I've never considered him 'tough', and he isn't a great defender.
At least I know that Donte can be an elite defender, and Casspi really does exert energy to guard players. (Even if he doesn't have the success or physical tools that Donte has)
So if we are going to spend major money on a 'vet' that vet has to do more than just score points. That vet will also need to fit into the team identity, otherwise we'll just have another Kevin on our hands.
Conclusion
So back to the question at hand. Is it better to spend money on a sure thing, or potentially 'waste' a year seeing if your projects will pan out?
The answer for the Kings this year is fairly simple.
Because of the new CBA coming up, it makes no sense to way-way-way overspend on a sure thing when you don't know what the new rules will be. This is even a more no-brainer, when you look at the production you're currently getting from your projects and how much you're paying them and then look at how much it would cost you to bring in the sure thing.
Finally, because you don't even know how well the 'sure thing' will fit on your team, or if this 'sure thing' has the other intangibles needed to succeed, it makes sense to provide a supportive environment for your projects and hope that one or both of them will meet your needs while waiting to see what the new rules will be.
I know I haven't gotten up my Summer League games for Days 3-6. *sigh* I'll get them up eventually.
But in the meantime a quick note on Anderson. I watched Denver play 2-3 times, and when Anderson was on the floor I watched him almost to the exclusion of everyone else on the court to see how he'd fit with Kings.
He's athletic and definitely not selfish. My biggest problem with him was his defense. He always, always, always played off of his man on the weakside. Even if his man had just drained 2 3-pt shots, he'd leave his man on the weakside and move to provide some sort of help defense on the strong side.
And it bit him numerous times.
He looked to be a good man defender, if his man had the ball, but even when his man was on the strong-side and didn't have the ball Anderson would seem to always be moving to provide help defense, and wasn't always able to recover in time.
I'm sure this could be fixed with coaching, but I was surprised by how blatant it was in every defensive possession in every game he played.
Something that has to be taken into consideration when looking at a player like Rudy Gay is how much does he really improve on the position he would be playing. There is no doubt that he is currently a better player than either Greene or Casspi, but how much better? I would first argue that it would all be on the offensive side of the floor (I don't have a lot of respect for Gay's defense - he is average at best). So let's look at what Gay did last season compared to the combined production of Casspi and Greene. Remember when looking at these numbers that both Greene and Casspi are likely to be even better this season.
Rudy Gay averaged 39.7 mins, 19.6 pts (46.6 FG%, 32.7 3pt%), 5.9 rbs, 1.5 stls, 0.8 blks, & 1.9 asts.
Casspi/Greene averaged 46.5 mins, 18.8 pts (44.4 FG%, 37.3 3pt%), 7.6 rbs, 1.2 stls, 0.9 blks, & 2.2 asts.
Obviously, this isn't a perfect picture of how these player affected their teams, but gives an idea that the overall production is not all that different. Especially when you consider the money it would have cost for such a small increase in prodution.
The truth is that when you look at the top FAs this season, it is pretty obvious that none of them had any chance of coming to Sacramento for various reasons. Wade made it clear early on he was staying in Miami. It is now obvious that Labron intended to join him there almost from the beginning (not that he returned the Kings' calls anyway). The Kings had no need or Amare, Bosh, Boozer, or Lee. And players like Rudy Gay & Joe Johnson were way overpaid which would have made them a bad signing for the Kings.
I understand getting frustated over what is sometimes viewed as a lack of effort, but in all honesty we will never know how much effort the Kings put into going after FAs. I have always been a big believer in the idea that no move is better than a bad move. Doing nothing (which is far from what the Kings have done BTW) only affects the here and now, while making a bad move could affect the team for many years to come.
Rudy Gay averaged 39.7 mins, 19.6 pts (46.6 FG%, 32.7 3pt%), 5.9 rbs, 1.5 stls, 0.8 blks, & 1.9 asts.
Casspi/Greene averaged 46.5 mins, 18.8 pts (44.4 FG%, 37.3 3pt%), 7.6 rbs, 1.2 stls, 0.9 blks, & 2.2 asts.
Obviously, this isn't a perfect picture of how these player affected their teams, but gives an idea that the overall production is not all that different. Especially when you consider the money it would have cost for such a small increase in prodution.
The truth is that when you look at the top FAs this season, it is pretty obvious that none of them had any chance of coming to Sacramento for various reasons. Wade made it clear early on he was staying in Miami. It is now obvious that Labron intended to join him there almost from the beginning (not that he returned the Kings' calls anyway). The Kings had no need or Amare, Bosh, Boozer, or Lee. And players like Rudy Gay & Joe Johnson were way overpaid which would have made them a bad signing for the Kings.
I understand getting frustated over what is sometimes viewed as a lack of effort, but in all honesty we will never know how much effort the Kings put into going after FAs. I have always been a big believer in the idea that no move is better than a bad move. Doing nothing (which is far from what the Kings have done BTW) only affects the here and now, while making a bad move could affect the team for many years to come.
First of all, I want to say that this person, that I now call a friend, and that I sat next to for an extradinary amount of games, takes more notes than I would ever dream of taking. While I took notes, thanks to Uncia03 providing me with note paper, which I left sitting on my computer table at home. My notes are more of a general feel of each player as I watch them. Uncia03 is capable of watching a game, while writing several pages of notes, and talking to me, all at the same time. It was an enjoyable experience, and all I can say is that I have total faith in his opinion. Even though we may disagree slightly on a few things, he is pretty much dead on when critiquing players. See ya next year dude, if there is a next year..
I had a fabulous time sitting next to you and discussing what we were seeing on the court for 2 full days of basketball. I hope that we can do it again next year.
Sorry about almost killing you with heat stroke after the car pick-up snafu, but the important thing is that you survived.
Not surprisingly I'm a bit burnt out from basketball analysis, and 'real-life' came crashing down last week when it was time to get back to work, but I'll get up my Summer League summaries eventually.
I think that Anderson could fit as a role-player on this team at the 2-guard spot, but I was joking with my wife after watching a game or two of his that you could always spot the man he was guarding by looking for the man who was wide-open. I'm sure that this could be corrected though.
Sorry about almost killing you with heat stroke after the car pick-up snafu, but the important thing is that you survived.
Not surprisingly I'm a bit burnt out from basketball analysis, and 'real-life' came crashing down last week when it was time to get back to work, but I'll get up my Summer League summaries eventually.
I think that Anderson could fit as a role-player on this team at the 2-guard spot, but I was joking with my wife after watching a game or two of his that you could always spot the man he was guarding by looking for the man who was wide-open. I'm sure that this could be corrected though.
I couldn't have said any better. The bottom line is not to drive blind. Usually bad things happen when you do. If your going to max out your cap space, then you better be damm sure that you have a finished product in place by doing so. Because with the new CBA there may be no flexability left to make any significant moves in the future. Thereby leaving you stuck with whatever you have, and possibly watching it slowly deteriorate as contracts come up for renewal, and you have no money to work with.
If the Kings would have signed Gay, they would have come close to maxing out their cap space. They would have regained some of it back with the departure of Dalmebert and Landry after next season. Thats assuming that they wanted to be rid of their contracts. But its unlikely that they would be in position to resign both. Without signing Gay, and not making any more changes to the lineup, they will be around 30 mil under the cap after this season. That gives them the flexability to do pretty much what they want. Resign both Dalembert and Landry, one of the two, or, perhaps neither. In any event, they will still have cap flexability.
If a hard cap is put into place, there will be maxed out teams unable to resign their freeagents. Restricted freeagents will no longer be a part of the landscape. Its highly possible that very good basketball players will now sign for greatly reduced salaries. Its like any market. If there aren't many buyers, and a lot of sellers, the price starts dropping. I'm not saying that this is the future of the NBA. But it could be, and without knowing for sure, its foolhardy to act like a kid in a candy store with a lot of money in his pocket.
If the Kings would have signed Gay, they would have come close to maxing out their cap space. They would have regained some of it back with the departure of Dalmebert and Landry after next season. Thats assuming that they wanted to be rid of their contracts. But its unlikely that they would be in position to resign both. Without signing Gay, and not making any more changes to the lineup, they will be around 30 mil under the cap after this season. That gives them the flexability to do pretty much what they want. Resign both Dalembert and Landry, one of the two, or, perhaps neither. In any event, they will still have cap flexability.
If a hard cap is put into place, there will be maxed out teams unable to resign their freeagents. Restricted freeagents will no longer be a part of the landscape. Its highly possible that very good basketball players will now sign for greatly reduced salaries. Its like any market. If there aren't many buyers, and a lot of sellers, the price starts dropping. I'm not saying that this is the future of the NBA. But it could be, and without knowing for sure, its foolhardy to act like a kid in a candy store with a lot of money in his pocket.
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Not to worry. I enhanced my tan, even if I did kill a few brain cells. Since you watched Anderson more than I did, I'll acquiesce to your knowledge. By the way. Your wife is to be commended. Not may wives would sit next to two basketball nuts and maintain a smilely face.. You've got a good one there. Kudo's to Cruzdude's wife as well. By the way, next year I'll be out in front of the hotel dressed in purple.. Still haven't made up my mind about the german beer hall. There were some real crazy people there.
Excellent and exhaustive presentation of all the issues.
Yah the reason I had been coveting him so much is that I watch pretty much every Memphis game with my dad always going on about them. I grew up with Memphis BBall. Anyway, the way Anderson and Reke worked together after that Syracuse game was just amazing to watch. They really played well together. At least once Reke was given the ball. They had a great 2 man game going. I would like to see if they could take it to the next level. My argument last year was that Anderson will pretty much give the same as Udoka can give the Kings so it was worth a try.. Then he got picked up lol.
Anyway, College success doesn't translate into NBA success but It's not like we would be fielding undersized players or anything. Andersons only problem is his outside shooting which I think he could correct. He's a bit streaky.
Anyway, College success doesn't translate into NBA success but It's not like we would be fielding undersized players or anything. Andersons only problem is his outside shooting which I think he could correct. He's a bit streaky.