... that mysterious blindspot in NBA recordkeeping -- the idea that somehow FTs are magical and do not consume possessions or shots. Even in the rare case where that is not true -- technical FTs -- that's actually nothing to brag about gettng extra points for. Its actually a false inflater of stats not earned during normal play rather than a sign of transcendant quality.
Look at it this way: Imagine a player who shoots 85% from the line and 50% from the field inside the three point line. If that player takes a 2-pt. shot, and is not fouled, they will score an average of 1 point per shot. If that player takes a 2-pt. shot, and
is fouled, they will score an average of 1.7 points per shot (on free throws), even before considering that sometimes they'll actually make the shot anyway. So that's an average of at least 0.7 more points per shot attempt if they get fouled. If that player draws 5 shooting fouls over the course of a game, that's 3-4 points more scored than an identical player who took the same number of shots but didn't draw any fouls. And 3-4 points can mean the difference between a win and a loss. Not to mention that those five fouls can get the defense in foul trouble.
Clearly, players that draw fouls help their team. If you're arguing that when a player is fouled on a shot, it should count as a shot attempt if it doesn't go in for the purposes of the points-per-shot stat, that's fine, and it's probably a better indicator of what points-per-shot is trying to measure. But the new version of points-per-shot would still favor the guys who get fouled a lot and hit FTs at a high percentage. I don't see how this is false inflation of stats.
I don't recall EVER seeing or hearing the $43 million figure before. I did hear something about $50 million, so I'm more inclined to believe it went from $50 to $55 million.
The $43 million figure is from Sam Amick's Bee article. Did you not see that, or are you questioning Amick? Just curious.
The guy I don't want is the big guy from North Carolina, his name escapes me right now. He's not athletic and got outplayed in the tourney last year when going up against the real athletic big men.
You're thinking of Tyler Hansborough.
One player who seems to get overlooked because of a perceived lack of athleticism is Kevin Love. But there's something to be said about good fundamentals (oh, say, Tim Duncan?) and Love should pan out to be a very good back-to-the-basket PF in the NBA who can also step outside and hit a jumper, at least to the college three range. Rebounds. Passes well, especially the outlet.
He may not be a top-three pick and I certainly wouldn't pass on Rose for him, but he might be a safer bet than some of the more athletic projects and tweeners in the draft (Ibaka, Beasley, Arthur).
I understand about the lack of athleticism or percieved lack thereof on some players versus the sound fundamental of a Duncan....but lets make it clear that Love right now can only dream about being Duncan. Duncan while not being an athletic freak like KG is still damn athletic for a big guy.
Let's be honest here. Right now there are about 29 starting power forwards and 30 starting centers in the league that can only dream about being Duncan, the lone obvious exception being Duncan.
My point is that Duncan has become an all-time great on the basis of freak fundamentals, not freak athleticism. And despite his advanced development, I don't think anybody currently sees Kevin Love as the next coming of Duncan - he's about two inches shorter, for one. Duncan is just the example that fundamentals plus attainable athleticism can bring a big man's NBA ceiling up real high, so long as the fundamentals are really good.
Love does have really good fundamentals, and enough gym, enough treadmill, and enough desire will keep him at a level of acceptable athleticism to play in the NBA. Some other guys may be leaps and bounds ahead of him athletically, but he's post moves and box outs ahead of them fundamentally. Maybe they get it, maybe they don't. Love already has it.
It's hard to predict the draft this far out, but I could see Love falling into the 10-15 range (assuming he declares) because of more athletic, less polished guys being taken ahead of him. But the list of guys who will actually be better is probably shorter...(Rose, Mayo, Beasley as a SF, Batum?)
Wouldn't you say we already have a pretty offensively fundamental player in Hawes?
By all accounts, yes. (I haven't had the chance to see Hawes yet.) But Love will play the 4 in the NBA and is expected to be a legitimate rebounder while there have been questions raised about Hawes on that front. We're a mess at the 4 - Hawes doesn't seem to be a good reason to take Love out of consideration, just because both can play with their back to the basket.
Again, Elton Brand is a better comparison than Duncan, especially considering size. But both are pie-in-the sky best case scenarios.
Fair enough on the Brand comparison. To be clear on my thinking - I don't think Love has much chance of becoming a franchise player, and there are probably several big guys in the draft who'll have a better shot at that. But Love may have the best shot of any of them at becoming a top-15 PF. With Love you're probably compromising and getting a somewhat lower ceiling in exchange for a significantly higher floor. Analogous to what we saw in Shane Battier (ceiling/floorwise, not that I think Love will move down to an SF/SG swingman).
No it's that they're both unathletic and don't block shots. Love just doesn't compliment Hawes at all, and it makes sense to get someone who compliments the young guys we already have rather than someone we are going to need to trade in 2 or 3 years because they mess up our defense too badly.
I think I'll wait until after he's worked with Ben Howland for a year before declaring Love unable to play defense.