JJ Redick Podcast - We Need to talk about The Sacramento Kings

Larry89

Larry89

Disgruntled Kings Fan
#1
#1
Some nice stats in here, our defense may not be as bad as it seems.

Our starting lineup is #1 Offense in the NBA Rating and tied with Philly for #4.

Subbing in Davion Mitchell for Fox leads to an even better defensive rating using the same lineup but no drop off in offense.

 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#5
#5
Does the starters #4 defensive rating pass the eye test for anyone? Sabonis is largely considered a barely plus defender, Barnes a slight minus, Keegan is a rookie, Huerter a slight minus and Fox a minus. Tough to understand how that computes to top 5.
 
Geoff

Geoff

Bench
#6
#6
iowamcnabb said:
Does the starters #4 defensive rating pass the eye test for anyone? Sabonis is largely considered a barely plus defender, Barnes a slight minus, Keegan is a rookie, Huerter a slight minus and Fox a minus. Tough to understand how that computes to top 5.
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Perhaps one's eyes need checking...
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#9
#9
Fantazija said:
As much as would like to say yes, I can not.But I do agree with some of the posters that are suggesting to stop complaining about the defense (I am definitely guilty of that) and appreciate those w's
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I think you can enjoy the wins and be critical of the defense at the same time.

If our starting 5 is really that good defensively then we have an easier path to contention. Find a second unit that can get stops and we should in theory be a top 3 team out west. It’s hard to understand how that’s possible considering most fans would have Davion and KZ as our top defenders. Either defensive lineup advanced data is not accurate or we are looking at our team all wrong.
 
C

Caccia

Starter
#11
#11
Among players who have been in 20 games or more, Okpala, Mitchell, Metu, Davis, Monk, and Lyles have the best defensive ratings, in that order. Basically, those guys are the bench rotation players, although Davis and Okpala were in the doghouse quite a while. The numbers range from 106.0 for Okpala to 112.7 and 112.8 for Monk and Lyles.

Numbers are from the NBA stats page. Statmuse gives a league-wide average of 112.0 for last season:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-league-average-defensive-rating-2022

Hover over the first column to see the name of the team.
 
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iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#12
#12
Caccia said:
Among players who have been in 20 games or more, Okpala, Mitchell, Metu, Davis, Monk, and Lyles have the best defensive ratings, in that order. Basically, those guys are the bench rotation players, although Davis was in the doghouse quite a while. The numbers range from 106.0 for Okpala to 112.7 and 112.8 for Monk and Lyles.
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if those guys have the best individual ratings on the team and the starting 5 is collectively top 4, then why are we 24th as a team? I honestly don’t understand the advanced stats enough to know. I know it’s points per possession but that obviously doesn’t tell the whole story.
 
DesertFox

DesertFox

Starter
#13
#13
iowamcnabb said:
if those guys have the best individual ratings on the team and the starting 5 is collectively top 4, then why are we 24th as a team? I honestly don’t understand the advanced stats enough to know. I know it’s points per possession but that obviously doesn’t tell the whole story.
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Not sure how it works either, but in the glory days, the Kings had a good defense with one good starter and 4 mediocre, and the next best defenders coming off the bench. Maybe the Kings offense is so good the other team's offense gets worn out.
 
T

The_Jamal

Hall of Famer
#14
#14
iowamcnabb said:
Does the starters #4 defensive rating pass the eye test for anyone? Sabonis is largely considered a barely plus defender, Barnes a slight minus, Keegan is a rookie, Huerter a slight minus and Fox a minus. Tough to understand how that computes to top 5.
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It's hard to tell in real time because outside of like the first 6 minutes of the 1st and 6 minutes of 3rd, we aren't getting a huge sample of the starters playing extended minutes together. Sometimes it closes, but more often than not, Monk or Mitchell close.

I think what you can tell is when Sabonis comes off the floor and his replacements are in. Rebounding, rim protection, physicality in the paint, etc all go out the window.
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#15
#15
The_Jamal said:
It's hard to tell in real time because outside of like the first 6 minutes of the 1st and 6 minutes of 3rd, we aren't getting a huge sample of the starters playing extended minutes together. Sometimes it closes, but more often than not, Monk or Mitchell close.

I think what you can tell is when Sabonis comes off the floor and his replacements are in. Rebounding, rim protection, physicality in the paint, etc all go out the window.
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I don’t know if you made it all the way through the video but he said our starting 5 is by far our most used lineup. Mitchell replacing fox is second and third is Monk replacing Keegan which takes a nosedive defensively. He said the next 3 or 4 most used lineups all include Sabonis but are all negative rated.
 
Geoff

Geoff

Bench
#16
#16
iowamcnabb said:
so your eyes are telling you that the Kings starting 5 is a top 4 defense?
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I follow the Kings through this board, fantasy basketball and newsreels based on my current situation. I rarely get a chance to watch them, but I see the data and the stats. Eyes can be deceived, but the numbers have to take precedence over our perceptions.
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#18
#18
Geoff said:
I follow the Kings through this board, fantasy basketball and newsreels based on my current situation. I rarely get a chance to watch them, but I see the data and the stats. Eyes can be deceived, but the numbers have to take precedence over our perceptions.
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I’d generally agree but the defensive metrics seem less reliable than others. I’ve seen every game other than Indiana (blacked out on league pass) and the 24th best defense matches the eye test for me. I’d love to be wrong though as fixing the bench would be an easier task than upgrading the starters.
 
D

dude12

Hall of Famer
#19
#19
macadocious said:
Im guessing if you broke down the starting 5 1st half vs. 2nd half DFRTG it would be drastically different.
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Every one of the starters was terrible on D in the first half….but in the second half I thought Fox was better, Davion locked guys down, we just overall worked harder.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#20
#20
If the data is correct we'll need to replace Monk with a better defender when his contract expires and find someone we can plug in off the bench to match up with teams that run bigger lineups. Both of those fit the eye test for me as weak points defensively. Monk has been great for us as instant offense but we'd probably be able to cover his production by moving Huerter to the second unit but keeping his minutes about the same.

We're good enough as-is though that McNair can take his time tweaking the roster. If we win a playoff series this year and improve even a little in the off-season we'll be set up perfectly to take advantage of a big free agent class in Summer of 2024.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#22
#22
kingsboi said:
attractive headlines leads to more clicks which leads to more revenue for JJ. that's how the game of podcasting goes and the Kings are a hot topic with a goal to getting that 16 pound gorilla off their back
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I see what you were going for here clocking the years of playoff drought but I can't help thinking that a 16lb gorilla sounds adorable and if I had one of those I'd be delighted if it wanted to cling to my back! :D
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#23
#23
The point about Mitchell I found interesting.

All current starters
Off Rating, Def Rating, Net Rating
119, 110.5, 8.5
Davion Replaces Fox:
123.5, 108.2, 15.2

Sabonis, Murray, Barnes, Monk, Fox
Off Rating, Def Rating, Net Rating
120.2, 118.3, 1.9
Davion Replaces Fox
90.4, 79.8, 10.6

I looked for equivalent numbers where Mitchell replaces Huerter but I could not find them.
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#26
#26
hrdboild said:
I see what you were going for here clocking the years of playoff drought but I can't help thinking that a 16lb gorilla sounds adorable and if I had one of those I'd be delighted if it wanted to cling to my back! :D
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I should of used KG instead of LBs but even then, that's a 35 pound gorilla 0_0
 
KainLear

KainLear

Starter
#27
#27
hrdboild said:
I see what you were going for here clocking the years of playoff drought but I can't help thinking that a 16lb gorilla sounds adorable and if I had one of those I'd be delighted if it wanted to cling to my back! :D
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This is a 5-pound Gorilla. So essentially you are carrying 3 of these.
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#30
#30
KingsFanSince85 said:
Stats are often times misleading.

As much as I love Davion — if he replaces Swipa in the starting lineup and plays starters minutes, there will be a very sizable drop off.

Get real.
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They can be. Why I posted both sets. And perhaps you are correct. Or perhaps Fox needs to show more pride on the defensive end.
 
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