JJ Redick Podcast - We Need to talk about The Sacramento Kings

[iowamcnabb]

Makes you want to lean more towards signing Cam Johnson and double down on offense. Doesn’t it?

im a fan I just don’t think the Suns let him go. If I was them I’d try to trade Ayton for Poeltl and salary filler. Try to re-sign him to a more team friendly deal. They can build around Book, Bridges, Cam and Poeltl. 30 mil comes off the books in 24 25 assuming they decline Paul’s option

 

[sactowndog]

...with a 400 minute sample difference lol. This is why I yelled at everybody years ago when they kept trying to use per/36 for anything. You can't just assume your stats will stay static over the course of a season or with a drastically different minutes workload. These numbers also don't account for the talent you play against and the amount you're playing vs better players.

Now, I think Davion is a special defender, so of course I'd hope the defense gets better when he's on the floor. And with how much he's struggled offensively this year, it's a great sign the overall unit hasn't fallen off when he comes into the game. But just because Fox isn't Davion on defense, doesn't mean he hasn't drastically improved his defensive performance from the last 2 years.

technically if you are comparing Davion and Fox you are better combining both samples so you factor out somewhat the impact of Huerter and Monk. We don’t have the raw data to correctly do so so I provided both for context. Would more data points be more definitive? Sure? But the data is what you have without introducing a Metu, Okpala, Holmes.

take it along with individual measures and any other data you want and your eye of the games. You are free to draw your own conclusions.

 

[sactowndog]

...with a 400 minute sample difference lol. This is why I yelled at everybody years ago when they kept trying to use per/36 for anything. You can't just assume your stats will stay static over the course of a season or with a drastically different minutes workload. These numbers also don't account for the talent you play against and the amount you're playing vs better players.

Now, I think Davion is a special defender, so of course I'd hope the defense gets better when he's on the floor. And with how much he's struggled offensively this year, it's a great sign the overall unit hasn't fallen off when he comes into the game. But just because Fox isn't Davion on defense, doesn't mean he hasn't drastically improved his defensive performance from the last 2 years.

well I think I already posted in the last 20 games Davion has shot better from 3 and committed significantly fewer turnovers which explains why you don’t see fall off.

Fox’s defense was much better earlier and I said so on the board. I don’t think it has been so the last 20 games. He has fallen off significantly.

last year his defensive rating was 116.5

before Dec 1 his rating was 113.6 a clear improvement and I was on the board giving him Kudos.

after Dec 1 his rating is 117.8 which is worse than last year. I think the numbers speak for themselves.

 

[ESP47]

well I think I already posted in the last 20 games Davion has shot better from 3 and committed significantly fewer turnovers which explains why you don’t see fall off.

Fox’s defense was much better earlier and I said so on the board. I don’t think it has been so the last 20 games. He has fallen off significantly.

last year his defensive rating was 116.5

before Dec 1 his rating was 113.6 a clear improvement and I was on the board giving him Kudos.

after Dec 1 his rating is 117.8 which is worse than last year. I think the numbers speak for themselves.

You can't really compare ratings across years because the players you play with have a huge effect on that. I'm really not a fan of the O and DRTG stats because they're basically only applicable to players on your own team that play similar positions and even then it can be really suspect.

Basketball reference has TD with the best rating on the team at 111 with Fox at 116 and Davion 117.

Definitely agree that Fox's defense has fallen off quite a bit and it shows in the stats and overall team defensive rating drop over the course of the season.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

im a fan I just don’t think the Suns let him go. If I was them I’d try to trade Ayton for Poeltl and salary filler. Try to re-sign him to a more team friendly deal. They can build around Book, Bridges, Cam and Poeltl. 30 mil comes off the books in 24 25 assuming they decline Paul’s option

I can't remotely imagine San Antonio looking at three more years of Ayton on a market value deal and saying, "No, thanks! We really need Poeltl and...McDermott and Gallinari." Phoenix demands picks in a deal like that, they're getting raked over the coals.

 

[sactowndog]

You can't really compare ratings across years because the players you play with have a huge effect on that. I'm really not a fan of the O and DRTG stats because they're basically only applicable to players on your own team that play similar positions and even then it can be really suspect.

Basketball reference has TD with the best rating on the team at 111 with Fox at 116 and Davion 117.

Definitely agree that Fox's defense has fallen off quite a bit and it shows in the stats and overall team defensive rating drop over the course of the season.

every stat has its concerns. When all the stats with different concerns point in the same direction that tends to be telling.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I can't remotely imagine San Antonio looking at three more years of Ayton on a market value deal and saying, "No, thanks! We really need Poeltl and...McDermott and Gallinari." Phoenix demands picks in a deal like that, they're getting raked over the coals.

Im not as high on Ayton as you are. He is a good player but he doesn’t come without his warts. The vibes are not great between him and the team it seems so maybe a change of scenery is in order. I can’t think of a ton of teams that have 30 plus mil in tradeable assets that would be interested. Washington? Charlotte? Chicago maybe if they want to unload DRoz? Indiana if they can’t sign Turner? I’m sure there are a couple more but none have great stuff coming back as far as I can tell

 

[macadocious]

I would just like to acknowledge that this is the most balanced sactowndog has been in a long time. He is even using statistics to back up his claim. I also think he is mostly correct with this assessment.

 

[ESP47]

I'm just glad Phoenix saved us from getting stuck with Ayton in the 2018 draft.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

I'm just glad Phoenix saved us from getting stuck with Ayton in the 2018 draft.

Not quite sure how much worse that could/would have been compared to who we ended up drafting that night...

Not even sure if it would have been any worse, to be perfectly honest with you.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Not quite sure how much worse that could/would have been compared to who we ended up drafting that night...

Not even sure if it would have been any worse, to be perfectly honest with you.

Seriously, if Phoenix had taken Luka and we had taken Ayton...well, maybe we don't end up with Sabonis, but it would have been a lot better for my moderator's mental health for, you know, four+ years.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

Seriously, if Phoenix had taken Luka and we had taken Ayton...well, maybe we don't end up with Sabonis, but it would have been a lot better for my moderator's mental health for, you know, four+ years.

LOL!!!

 

[twslam07]

im a fan I just don’t think the Suns let him go. If I was them I’d try to trade Ayton for Poeltl and salary filler. Try to re-sign him to a more team friendly deal. They can build around Book, Bridges, Cam and Poeltl. 30 mil comes off the books in 24 25 assuming they decline Paul’s option

I’m honestly wondering if a Davion Mitchell for Cam Johnson sign & trade gets it done. Kings get a very complementary starting 5 who are all on the same timeline (Fox-Huerter-Johnson-Murray-Sabonis) while the Suns get a young PG who’s a great fit on paper next to Booker. Could help with their cap/tax concerns while at the same time not bleeding value by letting Johnson go for nothing.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I’m honestly wondering if a Davion Mitchell for Cam Johnson sign & trade gets it done. Kings get a very complementary starting 5 who are all on the same timeline (Fox-Huerter-Johnson-Murray-Sabonis) while the Suns get a young PG who’s a great fit on paper next to Booker. Could help with their cap/tax concerns while at the same time not bleeding value by letting Johnson go for nothing.

If they decide to not re-sign him maybe. I think it’s going to be hard for Mitchell to show his true potential with the current setup but who knows.

 

[sactowndog]

I would just like to acknowledge that this is the most balanced sactowndog has been in a long time. He is even using statistics to back up his claim. I also think he is mostly correct with this assessment.

Thank you though I would say I’m generally balanced. Just because I can’t tell you my sources on items doesn’t make them less true.

 

[Warhawk]

Seriously, if Phoenix had taken Luka and we had taken Ayton...well, maybe we don't end up with Sabonis, but it would have been a lot better for my moderator's mental health for, you know, four+ years.

I think all the moderators resemble that remark.

 

[Kingster]

...with a 400 minute sample difference lol. This is why I yelled at everybody years ago when they kept trying to use per/36 for anything. You can't just assume your stats will stay static over the course of a season or with a drastically different minutes workload. These numbers also don't account for the talent you play against and the amount you're playing vs better players.

Now, I think Davion is a special defender, so of course I'd hope the defense gets better when he's on the floor. And with how much he's struggled offensively this year, it's a great sign the overall unit hasn't fallen off when he comes into the game. But just because Fox isn't Davion on defense, doesn't mean he hasn't drastically improved his defensive performance from the last 2 years.

Drastically? I don't see it. He was better at the beginning of the season. Now I see someone very similar to last year, which is in the mediocre to checked-out category. It really looks like he's made the decision that against the lesser teams he can pretty much check out on defense and get away with it. And he's been right - they've been winning against the lesser teams with his disinterested defense. It will be interesting to see if he can turn on the defense against upcoming playoff caliber teams or not. For me his ability (or not) to play engaged defense against those playoff caliber teams is an absolute key to having a chance of winning against them.