JJ Redick Podcast - We Need to talk about The Sacramento Kings
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Who is going to handle the ball in Monk's absence? Huerter can do some things here and there with the ball but he can't run the offense like Monk can. Davion gets you some sneaky assists but he can't run it full time either. Sabonis runs the offense well but he can't do it full time.
Monk has his warts but he's very valuable in running that second unit, which isn't something very many of us expected to happen when he got acquired.
Monk has his warts but he's very valuable in running that second unit, which isn't something very many of us expected to happen when he got acquired.
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Yeah you can't replace Monk with anyone on the roster imo. He's your only piece outside of Fox and Sabonis that's good with self-creation in scoring and playmaking. Barnes can sometimes take over scoring and getting to the FT line, but he hasn't been consistent with that aspect of his game. Huerter is a very good passer and underrated playmaker in the 2-man game with Domas, but he's not a guy you just let run the offense for 6+ minutes. Davion shows you hints of it on offense, but it's been like once every 7-8 games so far this year.
It's a great problem to have, but the Kings top 6 (starters+monk) has developed into a top 3 offense and they're all vital to continuing that success. And while Davion may be the most "moveable" piece of the top 7 core, he's far and away the best defender on a team that basically has none. Monte has to find a way to thread that line of keeping the offense dominant while adding a back-up C and back-up wing that can give a real defensive push and compliment the starters.
It's a great problem to have, but the Kings top 6 (starters+monk) has developed into a top 3 offense and they're all vital to continuing that success. And while Davion may be the most "moveable" piece of the top 7 core, he's far and away the best defender on a team that basically has none. Monte has to find a way to thread that line of keeping the offense dominant while adding a back-up C and back-up wing that can give a real defensive push and compliment the starters.
Davion did fine as the starter at the end of last season. Actually, as I recall a number of Kings fans were so impressed with Davion's playmaking and scoring for those last 3 weeks when Fox was injured that they wanted us to trade Fox and make him the full-time starter. I don't think he forgot how to score and pass, I think he's just struggled with his shot a bit to start the season and he's very good at playing his role which has been mostly off-ball with Monk in the lineup.
Take Fox off this team and have Davion as the starting PG and this team is not where they are right now. At best, Davion is average on offense. At best. Fox is elite in the 4th with the game on the line.
As far as Fox’s defense, 2nd half of game Fox is rock solid on D…..at times a difference maker. Mike Brown came out and said as much or said how important he was.
To consider we could be better without Fox is ludicrous. It’s a sham. It’s mockery. It’s shamockery.
As far as Fox’s defense, 2nd half of game Fox is rock solid on D…..at times a difference maker. Mike Brown came out and said as much or said how important he was.
To consider we could be better without Fox is ludicrous. It’s a sham. It’s mockery. It’s shamockery.
I mean, this is why context is important to these type of stats. You can just blindly look at those numbers and make extremely wrong conclusions.
The Kings starters is at 447 minutes this season and subbed for Davion is around 125minutes. So right away, you have a sample size issue. Then you take into context Davion subs in around 6 minutes into the game and then gets minutes when the other team starts to sub their starters out or the starters are nearing the end of their first rotation. There's just not a comparison statically to make here
What I DO really think matters is our top 3 most used 5-man rotations:
Starters:
447 minutes
ORtg: 119.0
DRtg: 110.5
Net: +8.5
Davion subbed for Fox:
125 minutes
ORtg:123.5
DRtg:108.2
Net: +15.2
Monk subbed for Keegan:
60 minutes
ORtg: 128.0 (Damn)
DRtg: 118.0 (Also Damn, but bad)
Net: +10.0
Are all very very elite. Once Brown figures out how to get the bench rotations a little more solid, we'll be cooking
The Kings starters is at 447 minutes this season and subbed for Davion is around 125minutes. So right away, you have a sample size issue. Then you take into context Davion subs in around 6 minutes into the game and then gets minutes when the other team starts to sub their starters out or the starters are nearing the end of their first rotation. There's just not a comparison statically to make here
What I DO really think matters is our top 3 most used 5-man rotations:
Starters:
447 minutes
ORtg: 119.0
DRtg: 110.5
Net: +8.5
Davion subbed for Fox:
125 minutes
ORtg:123.5
DRtg:108.2
Net: +15.2
Monk subbed for Keegan:
60 minutes
ORtg: 128.0 (Damn)
DRtg: 118.0 (Also Damn, but bad)
Net: +10.0
Are all very very elite. Once Brown figures out how to get the bench rotations a little more solid, we'll be cooking
Yeah he averaged something like 10apg over the last 10 games last year but I take players numbers at the end of losing seasons with a grain of salt because if he was that guy then I think Brown would have him sharing a bigger offensive load on the court. I just wouldn't trust going into a full season with him as the primary backup ball handler unless he could emulate something close to his production from the last 10 games last year over the course of this season while playing meaningful games.
It's hard to gauge real impact when your team is out of the playoffs and you're playing against tanking teams, teams that are locked in the playoffs and teams that are up by 15 on you and aren't going to play their best defense when they can beat you with half the effort.
It's disappointing that he hasn't been able to flash the same production outside of 2 or 3 games this year but he has had a nice overall uptick in efficiency. He's at 47% from the field and 34% from 3. Not a bad improvement from his low efficiency numbers his rookie year.
It's hard to gauge real impact when your team is out of the playoffs and you're playing against tanking teams, teams that are locked in the playoffs and teams that are up by 15 on you and aren't going to play their best defense when they can beat you with half the effort.
It's disappointing that he hasn't been able to flash the same production outside of 2 or 3 games this year but he has had a nice overall uptick in efficiency. He's at 47% from the field and 34% from 3. Not a bad improvement from his low efficiency numbers his rookie year.
This particular reading I think is misleading, since the first lineup has only played 42 minutes, and the second 37. Not enough minutes together to actually show a difference. In fact, only the first two lineups on the NBA page have as many as 60 minutes: the starters (+8.5), the starters with Mitchell in place of Fox (+15.2), and the starters with Monk in place of Murray (+10.0).
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?TeamID=1610612758&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN
I like to look at 3-man lineups to see who works well together. It is no surprise to see Sabonis and Barnes showing up over and over in the top fourteen groups by minutes, all with a significantly positive Net Rating. Anyone who thinks Barnes should be traded needs to have their head examined.
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/a...eamID=1610612758&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?TeamID=1610612758&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN
I like to look at 3-man lineups to see who works well together. It is no surprise to see Sabonis and Barnes showing up over and over in the top fourteen groups by minutes, all with a significantly positive Net Rating. Anyone who thinks Barnes should be traded needs to have their head examined.
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/a...eamID=1610612758&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN
I don't think Mitchell is going to be a double digit assist guy regularly, but I also don't think he's the 1 or 2 assist guy he's been this season if he's handed the full-time backup PG role without Monk handling the ball. I guess I'm just saying big picture that I think we can afford to lose Monk when his contract runs out more than we can afford to lose Davion. We need that point of attack defender badly in a league dominated by scoring guards and we have secondary playmakers and shooters we can plug in to equal Monk's production.
Don't get me wrong, I love Monk. He's a big part of the overall positive vibe this season. But eventually we're going to have to lose somebody if we sign a max or near max free agent to compliment our core group, which is what I hope we do in 2024 right before we get Domas his new contract. Monk is going to want a big contract if he's a 6th man of the year guy for the next two seasons. Also, I'll gladly give up being the #1 offensive team in the league if we can eventually be top 10 in both offense and defense. I think a Mike Brown coached team featuring Fox and Sabonis can get there with the right players around them.
Obviously we can't trade him if we're a top 4 team going into the playoffs as what he brings on both ends of the floor is going to be hard to replicate. The question is how much are we willing to offer him when his contract expires at the end of this season? Barnes started the year slow which is when the trade conversation got started but he's back to his usual level of production and he's young enough that he should be able to maintain that level (hopefully) through one more contract. At the start of this season I figured we were a borderline playoff team and we'd let him leave so we could focus on developing our younger core group but I'm re-thinking that now that we're leading the league in scoring and currently sitting on a home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.
There's a lot of season left before we have to worry about that though. It's a rare thing around Kingsfanland to just enjoy watching the team we have instead of thinking about the future. I'd forgotten what that feels like, but I'm sure I can get used to it.
Don't get me wrong, I love Monk. He's a big part of the overall positive vibe this season. But eventually we're going to have to lose somebody if we sign a max or near max free agent to compliment our core group, which is what I hope we do in 2024 right before we get Domas his new contract. Monk is going to want a big contract if he's a 6th man of the year guy for the next two seasons. Also, I'll gladly give up being the #1 offensive team in the league if we can eventually be top 10 in both offense and defense. I think a Mike Brown coached team featuring Fox and Sabonis can get there with the right players around them.
Obviously we can't trade him if we're a top 4 team going into the playoffs as what he brings on both ends of the floor is going to be hard to replicate. The question is how much are we willing to offer him when his contract expires at the end of this season? Barnes started the year slow which is when the trade conversation got started but he's back to his usual level of production and he's young enough that he should be able to maintain that level (hopefully) through one more contract. At the start of this season I figured we were a borderline playoff team and we'd let him leave so we could focus on developing our younger core group but I'm re-thinking that now that we're leading the league in scoring and currently sitting on a home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.
There's a lot of season left before we have to worry about that though. It's a rare thing around Kingsfanland to just enjoy watching the team we have instead of thinking about the future. I'd forgotten what that feels like, but I'm sure I can get used to it.
I mean it’s hard to say.
In the 2nd set you see a huge drop in offensive numbers which I ascribe to end of game line-ups where Fox has basically carried the team offensively. No one can get their shot like he can.
But in both sets you see a significant drop in defensive rating and net rating which I attribute to Fox not giving a crap on defense or taking the easy way out like going under screens instead of fighting over the top. With Sabonis not being a shot blocker having a player who can stop the ball at the point of attack matters a ton. Davion does that for anyone under 6’ 4”. We don’t really have a credible larger wing stopper.
In the 2nd set you see a huge drop in offensive numbers which I ascribe to end of game line-ups where Fox has basically carried the team offensively. No one can get their shot like he can.
But in both sets you see a significant drop in defensive rating and net rating which I attribute to Fox not giving a crap on defense or taking the easy way out like going under screens instead of fighting over the top. With Sabonis not being a shot blocker having a player who can stop the ball at the point of attack matters a ton. Davion does that for anyone under 6’ 4”. We don’t really have a credible larger wing stopper.
I think what this shows is the issues we have with the lack of a real lock down 3 and D defender. I don’t think rotations will matter as we just don’t have that guy.
and yes no set is perfect which is why I posted both sets (and yes it still has interpretation issues). Fox’s defense recently however has been sub-par and both the eye test and the stats say the same thing.
and yes no set is perfect which is why I posted both sets (and yes it still has interpretation issues). Fox’s defense recently however has been sub-par and both the eye test and the stats say the same thing.
I'm not sure how the stats you posted say Fox's defense is sub-par. In a 400 minute larger sample, the defense is only 2 points worse between him and Davion. That's amounts to nothing.
And the other 2 LU's you mentioned have 42 minutes and 37 minutes. Nothing. And IF you did glean something out of the defense, then why aren't we talking about the 120 ORtg with Fox to 90 ORtg with Davion? But, it's mostly noise.
You're looking for an excuse to rag on Fox's defense, as usual, and you're incorrectly using VERY noisy LU data with almost no minute sample to do it.
And the other 2 LU's you mentioned have 42 minutes and 37 minutes. Nothing. And IF you did glean something out of the defense, then why aren't we talking about the 120 ORtg with Fox to 90 ORtg with Davion? But, it's mostly noise.
You're looking for an excuse to rag on Fox's defense, as usual, and you're incorrectly using VERY noisy LU data with almost no minute sample to do it.
Over the last 22 games
Mitchell is shooting 34.7% on 2.3 attempts from 3 with .08 turnovers a game
Fox meanwhile is shooting 28.1% on 4.8 attempts from 3 with 2.7 turnovers a game.
those numbers explain somewhat the starter deltas. Mitchell doesn’t give the spectacular plays but does play efficiently with very good D.
Mitchell is shooting 34.7% on 2.3 attempts from 3 with .08 turnovers a game
Fox meanwhile is shooting 28.1% on 4.8 attempts from 3 with 2.7 turnovers a game.
those numbers explain somewhat the starter deltas. Mitchell doesn’t give the spectacular plays but does play efficiently with very good D.
no I am following up on some else’s comment and looking at the data that exists. I tried to control for Huerter but no data exists. I could post individual advanced stats but I’m sure you will ***** about those also.
offensive, defensive, net
Davion
114.5, 109.4, 5.1
Fox
117.8, 115.8, 2.0
the fact is over the past 20 games because he is playing hurt or for other reasons Fox’s game has regressed back to last years.
offensive, defensive, net
Davion
114.5, 109.4, 5.1
Fox
117.8, 115.8, 2.0
the fact is over the past 20 games because he is playing hurt or for other reasons Fox’s game has regressed back to last years.
Every data set has challenges of one sort or another. It’s why I posted both sets of data and have followed it up with other data.
the 3 man data fails to account for the other two guys on the court which is also a big deal. But feel free to use it to compare Fox and Mitchell and let’s see what it says.
the 3 man data fails to account for the other two guys on the court which is also a big deal. But feel free to use it to compare Fox and Mitchell and let’s see what it says.
Watching the Raptors Bucks game. Bucks are missing Giannis but have two top 20 defenders and they gave up 74 in the first half. Raptors have OG who is supposed to be the best perimeter defender and Barnes siakam and Fred and they gave up 67. Honestly neither team looked head and shoulders above the Kings defensively. Outside of super elite defensive teams and epically bad ones it seems like a lot of teams are around the same (bucks are elite with Giannis)
...with a 400 minute sample difference lol. This is why I yelled at everybody years ago when they kept trying to use per/36 for anything. You can't just assume your stats will stay static over the course of a season or with a drastically different minutes workload. These numbers also don't account for the talent you play against and the amount you're playing vs better players.
Now, I think Davion is a special defender, so of course I'd hope the defense gets better when he's on the floor. And with how much he's struggled offensively this year, it's a great sign the overall unit hasn't fallen off when he comes into the game. But just because Fox isn't Davion on defense, doesn't mean he hasn't drastically improved his defensive performance from the last 2 years.
Now, I think Davion is a special defender, so of course I'd hope the defense gets better when he's on the floor. And with how much he's struggled offensively this year, it's a great sign the overall unit hasn't fallen off when he comes into the game. But just because Fox isn't Davion on defense, doesn't mean he hasn't drastically improved his defensive performance from the last 2 years.