Is Willie Cauley-Stein still an option at center for Sacramento Kings?
Well, of course we could decline to offer a QO and could sign him at anywhere from the vet minimum up. We could also offer a QO (which is a one-year deal) and then sign him to a long-term deal at a lower annual value, there's no rule that says such an agreement is disallowed.
But let's be realistic. Cauley-Stein's market value is FAR FAR FAR higher than $6.3M a year. I know some folks around here really don't like him and some might even be willing to pay that much just to make him go away, but the fact is Willie will get a much larger contract than that. So in essence the point is moot. In principle, we could sign him for less. In the real world, it's not going to happen.
But let's be realistic. Cauley-Stein's market value is FAR FAR FAR higher than $6.3M a year. I know some folks around here really don't like him and some might even be willing to pay that much just to make him go away, but the fact is Willie will get a much larger contract than that. So in essence the point is moot. In principle, we could sign him for less. In the real world, it's not going to happen.
I tend to agree with this. A lot of fans around here get upset with his lack of consistency (even though it has improved each year). The problem is that theywant a star player when he is simply a solid starter. That is one of the things that separates a star from a solid starter (or good rotation player) - Consistency!
Look at a player like Tobias Harris. He came intothe league with a lot of potential. He became a solid rotation player and some thought he had peaked there because he was too inconsistent. The last couple of years he has turned into a borderline all-star because he learned to do it on a consistent basis. He was a good player before, but now he is coveted.
I'm not saying that Willie is going to make the same kind of jump with his consistency. I am saying that he is a good solid player. If he was a little more consistent, it would likely be the difference between being a 2nd & 3rd tier FA.
Look at a player like Tobias Harris. He came intothe league with a lot of potential. He became a solid rotation player and some thought he had peaked there because he was too inconsistent. The last couple of years he has turned into a borderline all-star because he learned to do it on a consistent basis. He was a good player before, but now he is coveted.
I'm not saying that Willie is going to make the same kind of jump with his consistency. I am saying that he is a good solid player. If he was a little more consistent, it would likely be the difference between being a 2nd & 3rd tier FA.
The factor you're not mentioning is what the player thinks he is. Kosta Koufos isn't a bench player who thinks he's a starter but just plays inconsistently. Problem with Willie is he doesn't think of himself as a solid starter, he thinks of himself as a star, and in particular is out to prove he has offensive skills rather than defensive ones. It's kinda like if Tony Allen believed he was the next Ray Allen - you'd have a very different player.
It's not that I don't like him. I think a lot of people on this forum underrate him as a player. He has a place in this league and can help a team.
Having said that, I don't like his fit with our core long term. Therefore, I value him less to this team vs. what another team may value him at. If we had a PF like Markkanen or J. Jackson (someone who can operate from the perimeter and spread the floor), I'd be okay keeping Cauley-Stein.
However, we have Bagley & Giles as our young PFs of the future. The spacing is not going to work long term with Cauley-Stein. Heck the spacing may not even work long term between Bagley & Giles.
Bagley
.375 Midrange % on 120 FGA
.190 Corner 3PT% on 21 3PA
.351 Above the Break 3PT% on 74 3PA
.691 FT% on 262 FTA
Giles
.339 Midrange % on 59 FGA
.000 Corner 3PT% on 2 3PA
.000 Above the Break 3PT% on 3 3PA
.637 FT% on 91 FTA
Cauley-Stein
.369 Midrange % on 84 FGA
.000 Corner 3PT% on 0 3PA
1.000 Above the Break 3PT% on 1 3PA
.551 FT% on 254 FTA
If I was Vlade, I would extend the qualifying offer to Cauley-Stein which would lead to a few different scenarios:
Having said that, I don't like his fit with our core long term. Therefore, I value him less to this team vs. what another team may value him at. If we had a PF like Markkanen or J. Jackson (someone who can operate from the perimeter and spread the floor), I'd be okay keeping Cauley-Stein.
However, we have Bagley & Giles as our young PFs of the future. The spacing is not going to work long term with Cauley-Stein. Heck the spacing may not even work long term between Bagley & Giles.
Bagley
.375 Midrange % on 120 FGA
.190 Corner 3PT% on 21 3PA
.351 Above the Break 3PT% on 74 3PA
.691 FT% on 262 FTA
Giles
.339 Midrange % on 59 FGA
.000 Corner 3PT% on 2 3PA
.000 Above the Break 3PT% on 3 3PA
.637 FT% on 91 FTA
Cauley-Stein
.369 Midrange % on 84 FGA
.000 Corner 3PT% on 0 3PA
1.000 Above the Break 3PT% on 1 3PA
.551 FT% on 254 FTA
If I was Vlade, I would extend the qualifying offer to Cauley-Stein which would lead to a few different scenarios:
- If he signs a $4-6 mil per year deal with another team, match it with the intention of keeping him.
- If he signs a $7-10 mil per year deal with another team, match it with the intention of trading him later.
- If he signs a $11+ mil per year deal with another team, let him walk.
- If he accepts the qualifying offer ($6.3 mil), fine keep him for the year and see how he progresses.
- If we need the cap space for a better investment in FA, rescind the offer and let Cauley-Stein walk
You should ask Chicago if they like paying Felicio $8 mil/year to be a backup C (the answer will be "they hate it").
Here's a quick list of bigs that we're paid recently (rather than using a contract that was given in 2015 when the GM started to panic when he found out that he couldn't actually sign good players to play alongside Cousins):
Derrick Favors was signed for $17 mil/year
Kelly Olynyk was signed for $12.5 mil/year
Jusuf Nurkic was signed for $12 mil/year
Julius Randle was signed for $9 mil/year
JaMychal Green was signed for $8 mil/year
Dewayne Dedmon was signed for $7 mil/year
Boban Marjanovic was signed for $7 mil/year
Ersan Ilyasova was signed for $7 mil/year
Montrezl Harrell was signed for $6 mil/year
Nemanja Bjelica was signed for $6.5 mil/year
Anthony Tolliver was signed for $5.75 mil/year
Dwight Howard was signed for $5 mil/year
Aron Baynes was signed for $5 mil/year
Ed Davis was signed for $4.5 mil/year
Kyle O'Quinn was signed for $4.5 mil/year
Alex Len was signed for $4 mil/year
Brook Lopez was signed for $3.5 mil/year
Nerlens Noel was signed for $1.75 mil/year
JaVale McGee was signed for $1.5 mil/year
Now let's cut this list down to bigs that weren't known to be decent 3PT shooters at the very least when they were signed:
Derrick Favors was signed for $17 mil/year
Jusuf Nurkic was signed for $12 mil/year
Dewayne Dedmon was signed for $7 mil/year
Boban Marjanovic was signed for $7 mil/year
Montrezl Harrell was signed for $6 mil/year
Dwight Howard was signed for $5 mil/year
Aron Baynes was signed for $5 mil/year
Ed Davis was signed for $4.5 mil/year
Kyle O'Quinn was signed for $4.5 mil/year
Alex Len was signed for $4 mil/year
Nerlens Noel was signed for $1.75 mil/year
JaVale McGee was signed for $1.5 mil/year
I think Favors and Nurkic are more valuable than Cauley-Stein, but I just don't how someone could value him at $10+ mil/year when there are so many other options out there for who can come cheaper.
Here's a quick list of bigs that we're paid recently (rather than using a contract that was given in 2015 when the GM started to panic when he found out that he couldn't actually sign good players to play alongside Cousins):
Derrick Favors was signed for $17 mil/year
Kelly Olynyk was signed for $12.5 mil/year
Jusuf Nurkic was signed for $12 mil/year
Julius Randle was signed for $9 mil/year
JaMychal Green was signed for $8 mil/year
Dewayne Dedmon was signed for $7 mil/year
Boban Marjanovic was signed for $7 mil/year
Ersan Ilyasova was signed for $7 mil/year
Montrezl Harrell was signed for $6 mil/year
Nemanja Bjelica was signed for $6.5 mil/year
Anthony Tolliver was signed for $5.75 mil/year
Dwight Howard was signed for $5 mil/year
Aron Baynes was signed for $5 mil/year
Ed Davis was signed for $4.5 mil/year
Kyle O'Quinn was signed for $4.5 mil/year
Alex Len was signed for $4 mil/year
Brook Lopez was signed for $3.5 mil/year
Nerlens Noel was signed for $1.75 mil/year
JaVale McGee was signed for $1.5 mil/year
Now let's cut this list down to bigs that weren't known to be decent 3PT shooters at the very least when they were signed:
Derrick Favors was signed for $17 mil/year
Jusuf Nurkic was signed for $12 mil/year
Dewayne Dedmon was signed for $7 mil/year
Boban Marjanovic was signed for $7 mil/year
Montrezl Harrell was signed for $6 mil/year
Dwight Howard was signed for $5 mil/year
Aron Baynes was signed for $5 mil/year
Ed Davis was signed for $4.5 mil/year
Kyle O'Quinn was signed for $4.5 mil/year
Alex Len was signed for $4 mil/year
Nerlens Noel was signed for $1.75 mil/year
JaVale McGee was signed for $1.5 mil/year
I think Favors and Nurkic are more valuable than Cauley-Stein, but I just don't how someone could value him at $10+ mil/year when there are so many other options out there for who can come cheaper.
I don't think Willie thinks he is a star, I think he wants to try to become one. Odds are against him, but I don't blame him for wanting to be better than he is. If he truly felt he was a star, he wouldn't have called Vince Carter last season asking him what he needed to do to take his game to the next level.
I'd really like Alex Len on this team. He seemed to make a jump last year.
- He's a strong 7 footer who could body up bigger Cs
- Moves well for his size
- Can protect the rim
- Can clean the glass well
- Can shoot the three well
- Not a bad passer
- And is only 25 so he could potentially be a long term fit at C if he keeps developing
I think we all agree that the physical abilities are there, the headspace is what's in question. Does he need more time to reach his potential, different motivation, a change of scenery....with headspace issues it's hard to say. I suspect the player-coach connection is the critical piece of the puzzle. For whatever reason, the chemistry and approach of Coach J wasn't bringing the best out of him on a consistent basis. Maybe Coach Luke will? If Coach thinks there is reason to try, I would want to see that result before shopping him around. There aren't many centers who can run at our pace, and I know of no others who are as invested in the other members of this team as Willie Cauley-Stein. I leave it up to Coach.
He's not a keeper. Nothing has changed from last summer when I ripped him to shreds for his lazy play. He's a guy who just doesn't love to win enough, doesn't love to compete enough. He's looking to conserve energy, to maximize his stats as much as possible, to do just enough in order to get the playing time he needs for the next contract. WCS is the archtypical talented guy who seems to love the game as a means to an end rather than an end in itself. What jumps out at you is that maybe as the fastest center in the league he doesn't get back on defense like he should. There's absolutely no excuse for that. He'll fly down the floor on offense to get an easy basket, but on defense he'll take his short "time-outs" to lollygag, maybe talk to the ref or "watch the ball" for a couple of seconds before starting to jog down the floor. He also doesn't swing at the ball to block a shot, which is purely because he doesn't want to, not because he can't. Where both of these deficiencies come together is WCS's failure to ever run down offensive players on a fast break and get a blocked shot, which is a crime for maybe the fastest 7-footer in the league. I don't want one guy on this team who doesn't compete. If you want a competitive culture, WCS should go. You can't teach heart.
Is he not De'Aaron's favorite target to pass to?
This is honestly the elephant in the room... when it comes to willie..
De'aaron is coming off a top-3 MIP season at 21 years old, and he seemed to have all these great lobs TO WILLIE in crunchtime....
How is it that ppl are just writing that off here?
Also one more thing the team had a major out-performing year and then they fired the coach............... That portends well for Willie's case, idk how u can say otherwise...
This is honestly the elephant in the room... when it comes to willie..
De'aaron is coming off a top-3 MIP season at 21 years old, and he seemed to have all these great lobs TO WILLIE in crunchtime....
How is it that ppl are just writing that off here?
Also one more thing the team had a major out-performing year and then they fired the coach............... That portends well for Willie's case, idk how u can say otherwise...
How do you know he is his favorite target to pass to? That's subjective, and something you have no way of knowing.
If you made a claim like "the player Fox passes to most is Cauley-Stein" then that could have validity, but you're pretending to know his preferences when he has never come out and told us.
Sharing the floor with each player for 36 min, Fox makes (on average) this amount of passes to each player:
But let's say he is Fox's "favorite" player to pass to for some odd reason, why does it matter? Fox's greatness was not predicated on Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein was the 40th most efficient C last year as a roll man (1.15 PPP). Not 40th player, 40th C. I think it's an understatement to say he's easily replaced as a roll man.
I think you need to choose another reason for keeping Cauley-Stein other than "he's Fox's favorite target". It's not compelling, and proves his worth as much as me saying "we should keep McLemore because he's a nice guy".
So far the reasons not to sign Cauley-Stein to a big deal:
It sounds like it's a pretty easy decision for both of us, but we're on opposite ends for whatever reason.
If you made a claim like "the player Fox passes to most is Cauley-Stein" then that could have validity, but you're pretending to know his preferences when he has never come out and told us.
Sharing the floor with each player for 36 min, Fox makes (on average) this amount of passes to each player:
- Mason = 27.0 passes
- Bogdanovic = 20.2 passes
- Hield = 19.2 passes
- Bjelica = 18.5 passes
- Labissiere = 18.0 passes
- Harry Giles = 15.7 passes
- Cauley-Stein = 15.7 passes
- Bagley = 13.9 passes
- Ferrell = 13.8 passes
- Shumpert = 13.4 passes
But let's say he is Fox's "favorite" player to pass to for some odd reason, why does it matter? Fox's greatness was not predicated on Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein was the 40th most efficient C last year as a roll man (1.15 PPP). Not 40th player, 40th C. I think it's an understatement to say he's easily replaced as a roll man.
I think you need to choose another reason for keeping Cauley-Stein other than "he's Fox's favorite target". It's not compelling, and proves his worth as much as me saying "we should keep McLemore because he's a nice guy".
So far the reasons not to sign Cauley-Stein to a big deal:
- He's not a long term fit next to Bagley as he can't space the floor
- He's an inefficient roll man for Fox
- He's not a good rim protector
- His motor/effort has been inconsistent (even in a contract year)
- His attitude rubs myself the wrong way whereas guys like Fox, Hield, Bogandovic, & Bagley all say the right things in their interviews
- He'll be 26 by the start of next season (how much better can he really get?)
- He's Fox's favorite target to pass (are we even sure?)
- He's tall & athletic
- He's a good perimeter defender
- He doesn't turn the ball over
It sounds like it's a pretty easy decision for both of us, but we're on opposite ends for whatever reason.
For this team to go anywhere, Bagley has to develop a consistent 3pt shot. Eventually he has to be the floor spacer; well he has to be an elite scorer that can take people off the dribble from the 3pt line, similar to Blake Griffin. If Bagley hits his ceiling, the best front court partner for him is a mix of high post passer/rim runner/offensive rounder/mid range shooter. WCS checks 3 out of 4, pretty god fit to me. It really depends on Bagley to hit his ceiling.
1.15PPP is not inefficient. That is 60th percentile, which is above average. Besides, how would you defend Fox and WCS pick and roll? I would stick to WCS all the way to the rim, give Fox as many mid range shots or floaters in the paint as he wants. At 37%FG in the paint and 37%FG mid range, Fox's shot is not respected outside of the restricted area.
He was decent his first 3 years. Suddenly he was bad this year, something that is very off his career average and especially in a contract year. You don't think that is something suspicious there. Perhaps this translation of Bogdan interview will shed some light https://www.sactownroyalty.com/2019/5/24/18638349/bogdans-interview-for-sportklub-translation
Reasons to sign WCS to a big deal:
1.15PPP is not inefficient. That is 60th percentile, which is above average. Besides, how would you defend Fox and WCS pick and roll? I would stick to WCS all the way to the rim, give Fox as many mid range shots or floaters in the paint as he wants. At 37%FG in the paint and 37%FG mid range, Fox's shot is not respected outside of the restricted area.
He was decent his first 3 years. Suddenly he was bad this year, something that is very off his career average and especially in a contract year. You don't think that is something suspicious there. Perhaps this translation of Bogdan interview will shed some light https://www.sactownroyalty.com/2019/5/24/18638349/bogdans-interview-for-sportklub-translation
Reasons to sign WCS to a big deal:
- 1.78RPM, rank 15th as a center
- 2.0BPM, rank 52nd overall
- 2.3VORP, rank 53rd overall
Bagley is going to be best operating around the paint. Even if he develops a 3pt shot, the strength of his game is going to be the ability to take people off the dribble if they crowd him, or to shoot over them if they give him too much space. Not to mention, I'm sure he'll post up as well. Just because you're driving from the 3pt line it doesn't mean it's okay for your C not to space the floor. It just means if Bagley beats his man, the opposing team's C would be right there to challenge his shot. Both him and Fox would flourish with a C who can space the floor. Cauley-Stein can't do that.
On a side note, you'd rather have Bagley closer to the rim on offense due to his rebounding & putback abilities. With Cauley-Stein on the team, you're either crowding the paint for others or minimizing one of Bagley's strengths.
Bagley
4.7 ORB per 100 possessions (39th among Cs as a 19 year old)
1.28 PPP on putbacks (84.1 percentile)
Cauley-Stein
3.7 ORB per 100 possessions (72nd among Cs as a 25 year old)
0.96 PPP on putbacks (32.8 percentile)
3 out of 4?
60th percentile among all players. That factors in PGs, SGs, etc. as a roll man. I would hope Cauley-Stein is better as a roll man than PGs and SGs. That's why I filtered down to Cs, and it tells us he's the 40th most efficient C as a roll man.
You're right. 1.15 is efficient if you take into account every single shot in a game, but if you filter down to scoring off being a roll man, it's inefficient when compared to his peers (40th most efficient). It's similar to say "1.30 PPP on dunks is not inefficient" when the majority of players would be at like 1.90. Some shots are tougher than others. The average PPP as a roll man is different than isolation.
FGAs defened at the rim = 66.5% (81st among Cs)
FGAs defended within 6 feet or less = 66.0% (80th among Cs)
Charges drawn = 0.00 (tied for last among Cs)
Blocks per 100 poss. = 1.1 (72nd among Cs)
He's far from good at protecting the paint.
Look, I've said it multiple times, and I'll say it again. I think Cauley-Stein is a good basketball player. I just don't think his style fits with our franchise cornerstones. That's why I'm okay if he's not on this team next year. However, my process would be this:
On a side note, you'd rather have Bagley closer to the rim on offense due to his rebounding & putback abilities. With Cauley-Stein on the team, you're either crowding the paint for others or minimizing one of Bagley's strengths.
Bagley
4.7 ORB per 100 possessions (39th among Cs as a 19 year old)
1.28 PPP on putbacks (84.1 percentile)
Cauley-Stein
3.7 ORB per 100 possessions (72nd among Cs as a 25 year old)
0.96 PPP on putbacks (32.8 percentile)
3 out of 4?
- He's 72nd among Cs in offensive rebounding
- He shoots .353 from midrange (inefficient, equivalent to a .353 TS%)
- He's the 40th most efficient C as a roll man
60th percentile among all players. That factors in PGs, SGs, etc. as a roll man. I would hope Cauley-Stein is better as a roll man than PGs and SGs. That's why I filtered down to Cs, and it tells us he's the 40th most efficient C as a roll man.
You're right. 1.15 is efficient if you take into account every single shot in a game, but if you filter down to scoring off being a roll man, it's inefficient when compared to his peers (40th most efficient). It's similar to say "1.30 PPP on dunks is not inefficient" when the majority of players would be at like 1.90. Some shots are tougher than others. The average PPP as a roll man is different than isolation.
FGAs defened at the rim = 66.5% (81st among Cs)
FGAs defended within 6 feet or less = 66.0% (80th among Cs)
Charges drawn = 0.00 (tied for last among Cs)
Blocks per 100 poss. = 1.1 (72nd among Cs)
He's far from good at protecting the paint.
Look, I've said it multiple times, and I'll say it again. I think Cauley-Stein is a good basketball player. I just don't think his style fits with our franchise cornerstones. That's why I'm okay if he's not on this team next year. However, my process would be this:
- Extend the qualifying offer to Cauley-Stein
- If he signs a $4-6 mil per year deal with another team, match it with the intention of keeping him.
- If he signs a $7-10 mil per year deal with another team, match it with the intention of trading him later.
- If he signs a $11+ mil per year deal with another team, let him walk.
- If he accepts the qualifying offer ($6.3 mil), fine keep him for the year and see how he progresses.
- If we need the cap space for a better investment in FA, rescind the offer and let Cauley-Stein walk
Last edited:
Guys that would be good fits today:
Guys that could be good fits depending on their development:
Guys that could be good fits from the draft:
The other option is that Bagley (over time) could get stronger & improve his defense allowing him to play C.
- Porzingis
- M. Turner
- Horford
- M. Gasol
- Ibaka
- Dedmon
- B. Lopez
- Len
- Z. Collins
Guys that could be good fits depending on their development:
- Carter Jr.
- Bamba
- T. Bryant
Guys that could be good fits from the draft:
- Bol Bol
- Fernando
- Diakite
- Kabengale
- Claxton
The other option is that Bagley (over time) could get stronger & improve his defense allowing him to play C.
Turner for sure. I think he’s turned himself into a true defensive anchor and unlike other defensive centers, Turner actually has an offensive game that includes 3pt shooting. Our only problem is that we can’t trade for Turner without giving up Fox or Buddy+Bogdan. That’s how much Indiana values him.
If WCS is back it would mean that every FA center that we approached to discuss joining us or that we offered a contract to has knocked up back.
If I was a betting man I would expect the following to happen:
- Kings make a qualifying offer to WCS to make him a RFA
- Kings talk to other Cs in FA
- As soon as the Kings agree to terms with a FA C, the QO to WCS will get rescinded making him a UFA.
If I was a betting man I would expect the following to happen:
- Kings make a qualifying offer to WCS to make him a RFA
- Kings talk to other Cs in FA
- As soon as the Kings agree to terms with a FA C, the QO to WCS will get rescinded making him a UFA.
I'm so torn. I feel like I get Willie's positive attributes and when he's focused and committed - he is plenty good enough. He can be a darn good player.
But.... when in your career are you ever going to be more focused and committed than your contract year? And he wasn't.. not enough.
Too much risk he dogs it after getting a payday. I swallow hard and pass. But, if they sign him I won't go mental or anything. Will just be the job of the coaching staff to have him ready each game.
But.... when in your career are you ever going to be more focused and committed than your contract year? And he wasn't.. not enough.
Too much risk he dogs it after getting a payday. I swallow hard and pass. But, if they sign him I won't go mental or anything. Will just be the job of the coaching staff to have him ready each game.
I keep coming back to Stein's lateral quickness.....I think maybe Anthony Davis might have equal or so, but who else in the league has it at 7 ft- maybe Gobert. Neither Bagley and definitely not Giles can move like that. Bagley isn't too far behind though. Its what's needed to make things difficult for opposing guards. That's a natural gift that's rare and coveted. As some have recognized, alot of Stein's problem is his reticence to mix it up and give a harder foul. But I think Stein is worth in the $10-$13MM / year range, maybe say $11MM with incentives if he substantially improves his FT% and BPG Avg. Stein is ideal for pick and role defense in the NBA, a big need defensively. His FTs are maddening, though ultra.so I think its worth overpaying some for Stein, but not "new" star-level money. I like the idea of big incentives and giving him a shot - say 3 yrs/34 million...with hefty incentives to hopefully motivate him.