Interesting Stats From The Other Bigs

[sactownfan]

Heres a few of the players that are being considered to be the best next year. Lets compair them to Hawes that was the rock of his team, at only 19. I highlighted each players fresh. season in purple so you can get an idea for what they were doing at Hawes age. Im sorry but Hawes is looking to be just as good of a rebounder as these other guys. Hawes was sick for a good amount of time and lost 20lbs? what are the other guys excuses? Hibbert is 7'2 277 ? why cant he get more rebounds?

#55 Roy Hibbert | C
Full Name: Roy Hibbert
Birth Place: Adelphi, MD
Height: 7-2
Weight: 278 lbs.
Position: Center
Class: Junior

PPG 12.9 | APG 1.1 | RPG 6.9

#11 Brook Lopez | F
Full Name: Brook Lopez
Birth Place: Fresno, CA
Height: 7-0
Weight: 240 lbs.
Position: Forward
Class: Freshman

PPG 12.6 | APG .8 | RPG 6.0


#34 Hasheem Thabeet | C
Full Name: Hasheem Thabeet
Birth Place: Houston, TX
Height: 7-3
Weight: 255 lbs.
Position: Center
Class: Freshman
PPG 6.2 | APG .4 | RPG 6.4

#10 Spencer Hawes | C

Full Name: Spencer Hawes
Birth Place: Seattle, WA
Height: 7-0
Weight: 250 lbs. Position: Center
Class: Freshman

PPG 14.9 | APG 1.9 | RPG 6.4

 

[KingFred4]

Not only do I not want to take the time to decipher the jumble that is those stats I also do not want to compare the #10 overall pick to a group that decided not to even enter the draft because they didn't like how they thought it would turn out for them.
I see what you're trying to do but your comparisons don't do your argument justice.

 

[fnordius]

I don't know that much about Lopez, but Hibbert and Thabeet both sat out this year's draft because they are raw athletes with little skills, and were still too much of projects -- Thabeet, especially, looks to have amazing potential but barely knows how to play yet. So if your point is that Hawes rebounds as well as a guy that barely knows how to play, point taken.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I don't know that much about Lopez, but Hibbert and Thabeet both sat out this year's draft because they are raw athletes with little skills, and were still too much of projects -- Thabeet, especially, looks to have amazing potential but barely knows how to play yet. So if your point is that Hawes rebounds as well as a guy that barely knows how to play, point taken.

Hibbert a raw athlete? lol.

 

[Bricklayer]

Hibbert a raw athlete? lol.

No Hibbert is the opposite, and the entire question about him was if he, too, might not be too big, slow, and oafish to make it in the NBA as anything more than a backup. Made up for the middling boardwork however by being a defensive stalwart.

 

[KingFred4]

I don't know that much about Lopez, but Hibbert and Thabeet both sat out this year's draft because they are raw athletes with little skills, and were still too much of projects -- Thabeet, especially, looks to have amazing potential but barely knows how to play yet. So if your point is that Hawes rebounds as well as a guy that barely knows how to play, point taken.

The only point that should be taken from Hawes' stat line is that he's a 19 year old young man whose offensive skillset warrented that he be taken 10th overall in the '07 draft by a team with a deficit of low post skill and size among other things.
It would be unwise to look at the youngster's incomplete freshman season's stats and damn him to a career of unathletic defense and rebounding drudgery.

 

[uolj]

What's the per minute ratio on those? Because 6.3 in 28 minutes is 5.4 in 24 minutes. That's a big difference.

 

[Bricklayer]

What's the per minute ratio on those? Because 6.3 in 28 minutes is 5.4 in 24 minutes. That's a big difference.

Per 40 min:

Hawes 8.8 (pace adjusted 8.3)
Lopez 9.5 (pace adjusted 9.5)
Thabeet 10.4 (pace adjusted 10.1)
Hibbert 10.4 (pace adjusted 11.7)
---------------------------------
Oden 13.2 (pace adjusted 13.6)


It is what it is.

 

[SacTownKid]

Interesting! That's a lot better than I thought when you consider none of those guys had a Jon Brockman gobbling up rebounds right next to them. Cool!

 

[sactownfan]

thanks brick, sorry about not double checking those numbers before i posted this. It was a jumbled mess. Didnt quite come out the way it should have.

OK so my point is that Hawes is right up there with the rest of this group (other than Greg Oden,hes clearly the leader by far and is a league of his own) when it comes to rebounds. All the scouts at espn are drooling over these other players for next years draft and im not sold on why? sure threre is obviously room for improvement. and i would expect all of these players to improve but. As a Freshman Hawes stepped in, was a leader and was the main reason for his teams success.

Another thing we should factor in was his stomach virus. do we have a formula to figure out how many more blocks and reb's he would have had if he had not been sick and lost 20lbs?

hawes is raw just like the others here difference being hes just better and nba ready now. vs the others need to play against weaker college kids to improve. the per 40 mins is lame, it is what it is. they all avg over 20 someting and were all givin the chance to do there thing.

 

[fnordius]

Hibbert a raw athlete? lol.

Sorry, quickie post... what I meant to say was that Hibbert and Thabeet are both guys whose skills aren't that great, that people are only interested in for their physical potential. Thabeet is a raw, huge athlete. Hibbert is like a rawer and slightly more athletic version of Hawes; you'd only want him because he's really big.

Better?

 

[Sptsjunkie]

I think this post is interesting since a number of people on the board would have gladly welcomed some of those bigs, However, I think it would be more interesting if you had some examples of big men who worked out in the NBA who had similar numbers their freshman year in college.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Sorry, quickie post... what I meant to say was that Hibbert and Thabeet are both guys whose skills aren't that great, that people are only interested in for their physical potential. Thabeet is a raw, huge athlete. Hibbert is like a rawer and slightly more athletic version of Hawes; you'd only want him because he's really big.

Better?

Hibbert is slower and less athletic than Hawes. Hibbert isn't raw, he's got solid post moves, shooting touch, and passing/vision. He's a "skills" player IMO, the reason I think most would prefer Hibbert is because the obvious he's bigger, stronger, and longer so the potential for rebounds and blocks are higher than it would appear with Hawes. However Hawes is quicker, more fluid, runs the floor much better, better conditioning, and much more polished skills.

 

[fnordius]

I would really hesitate to call him a "skills" player yet. We are talking about a guy who, in high school, had the crowd yelling "Lurch! Lurch!" (after the Addams family butler) because he seemed to have nothing going for him but size. He has improved greatly in the last year, but has some ways to go yet.

He's undeniably slow, as are most 275-pound folks. As for other aspects of his physique, he undoubtedly does have better wingspan than Hawes, whose arms are quite short for a guy his height. Other than that, we will have to see. He is almost certain to have lower body fat than Hawes, and is said to be quite a bit stronger -- I count both of those as plusses under the "athleticism" category -- but we won't know for sure until next year's predraft camp. So we can resume this discussion in 11 months.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I would really hesitate to call him a "skills" player yet. We are talking about a guy who, in high school, had the crowd yelling "Lurch! Lurch!" (after the Addams family butler) because he seemed to have nothing going for him but size. He has improved greatly in the last year, but has some ways to go yet.

He's undeniably slow, as are most 275-pound folks. As for other aspects of his physique, he undoubtedly does have better wingspan than Hawes, whose arms are quite short for a guy his height. Other than that, we will have to see. He is almost certain to have lower body fat than Hawes, and is said to be quite a bit stronger -- I count both of those as plusses under the "athleticism" category -- but we won't know for sure until next year's predraft camp. So we can resume this discussion in 11 months.

I wasn't trying to make him out to be a skills guy like Hawes but more skills than athleticism. He's definitely a size guy more than anything. I wouldn't say Hawes' wingspan is short for his height, it's two inches longer than his height w/o shoes.

 

[fnordius]

I wouldn't say Hawes' wingspan is short for his height, it's two inches longer than his height w/o shoes.

His standing reach is pretty good, but maybe he has narrow shoulders or something?

He was tied for 4th/5th tallest guy at predraft camp, but was in 29th place for wingspan, with 3 guys under 6'6" having better wingspans than him. Of the guys his height or taller, his wingspan was 4th place out of 5. At least he beat out Jason "Troll Doll" Smith, whose wingspan is identical to his height (an honor shared only by himself and Jared Jordan out of 80 players at camp).

But, like I said, his standing reach is decent, so it's unclear how much it will permanently limit his rebounding, etc.

 

[nbrans]

Per 40 min:

Hawes 8.8 (pace adjusted 8.3)
Lopez 9.5 (pace adjusted 9.5)
Thabeet 10.4 (pace adjusted 10.1)
Hibbert 10.4 (pace adjusted 11.7)
---------------------------------
Oden 13.2 (pace adjusted 13.6)


It is what it is.

I think this makes it quite clear that Hawes is not going to win any numbers-related arguments.

 

[BMiller52]

I think this makes it quite clear that Hawes is not going to win any numbers-related arguments.

But at the same time he was younger than Hibbert so he had room to improve there IMO, while Hibbert really doesn't

 

[AleksandarN]

No Hibbert is the opposite, and the entire question about him was if he, too, might not be too big, slow, and oafish to make it in the NBA as anything more than a backup. Made up for the middling boardwork however by being a defensive stalwart.

the next Ostertag?

 

[deadprez]

I think this post is interesting since a number of people on the board would have gladly welcomed some of those bigs, However, I think it would be more interesting if you had some examples of big men who worked out in the NBA who had similar numbers their freshman year in college.

i.e., as a freshman David Lee averaged 4.3 RPG (40 min pace adjusted).
http://www.draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=87&page=stats.

Hawes 8.3 RPG (pace adjusted) as a freshman indicates he can be just
as good a rebounder as Lee who was at 10.4 RPG this year.

BTW, Hawes has a 9'2" standing reach compared to Lee's 8'11"

X Factor: This kid has heart for a 19 yr old. He spoke out against those
that say he is not athletic enough, saying he will prove them wrong

 

[Smills91]

I also think Hawes Rebound numbers are being exaggerated. In college you play 40 minute games with 35 second shot clocks...there are a LOT fewer shots in a game and thus less opportunities to rebound the ball. I think he'll hover around 9-12 rebounds a game as a starter in the NBA. Factoring in his situations of age, team dynamics, etc...there's no reason to believe the kid can't be one of the top 25 rebounders in the league.

 

[Bricklayer]

I also think Hawes Rebound numbers are being exaggerated. In college you play 40 minute games with 35 second shot clocks...there are a LOT fewer shots in a game and thus less opportunities to rebound the ball. I think he'll hover around 9-12 rebounds a game as a starter in the NBA. Factoring in his situations of age, team dynamics, etc...there's no reason to believe the kid can't be one of the top 25 rebounders in the league.

Hawes' rebounding is hardly being exaggerated -- they are being compared directly to other college players who last time I checked played under the same rules with the same clock and still routinely came out far ahead as rebounders.

 

[Smills91]

Hawes' rebounding is hardly being exaggerated -- they are being compared directly to other college players who last time I checked played under the same rules with the same clock and still routinely came out far ahead as rebounders.

Really, how many 19 year old freshman have averaged 6.5 rebounds a game? Hawes IMO is ahead of the learning curve in rebounding...look at Horford, Noah, Lee, etc who are all considered to be good-great rebounders...Hawes is ahead of every single one of them after just 1 year of college ball.

 

[Bricklayer]

Really, how many 19 year old freshman have averaged 6.5 rebounds a game?

Um...how about just about any of them who get the minutes? here, I'll give you one: Kevin durant (SF) 11.3. Or maybe you'd prefer keith Van Horn (8.3)? Tough guy Raef LaFrentz at 7.5?

Hawes IMO is ahead of the learning curve in rebounding...look at Horford, Noah, Lee, etc who are all considered to be good-great rebounders...Hawes is ahead of every single one of them after just 1 year of college ball.

That's just very sloppy:
1) of course Horford did average 6.5rebs as a frosh. In 22.8 minutes, giving him, a far superior rebound rate.(11.4/40)
2) Noah barely played, but yes his reboudning rate was better too (10.64/40min).
3) The link to Lee's stats is wrong btw. He did not play too much as a frosh either. When he did it was 4.7rebs in 18.0 min.gm. Not exceptional. But still 10.44 rebs/40 min (compare to Spenser's 8.3)

 

[Entity]

Geesh. Are we still arguing about Spencer's rebounding rate. If he averaged 30rpg or 1rpg it doesn't matter. He is here he is not going to leave because he only averaged 6.4 reb as a freshman. Let it go ppl its time to move to the next subject.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

X Factor: This kid has heart for a 19 yr old. He spoke out against those
that say he is not athletic enough, saying he will prove them wrong

talk is cheap. i'm waiting for the season to start before making judgment on this guy

 

[Gary]

I know this probally won't make much difference to anyone, but David Lee averaged 6.8 boards in like 26 minutes his frosh year in college.

I know I am going out on a limbe here, but Hawes (on a weak rebounding team like the Kings) might actually collect quite a few, and impress a lot of us. I still hate the pick, but...

 

[nbrans]

I think the most important stat with Spencer Hawes is that he's 19, so yeah, he could improve on any number of things (except perhaps that vertical leap). But I think what's clear from this thread is that he's not going to win any numbers-related arguments for his rebounding.

Does that close the book on him becoming a competent rebounder someday? No it does not. He could get better. But you're not going win by pointing to his numbers.

 

[Bricklayer]

Okay, this took a bit of doing. I am sure of course that you will greatly appreicate the effort. Below are the names of every player who has averaged 10+ rebounds a game in a season (even if only 1 season) this millenium (since the 00-01 season). Next to their names are their rebs/gm as a frosh, minutes as a frosh, and then rebs/40min rate (so they can be compared more accurately).


Shaq 12.0reb/28.2min 17.0/40min
Dampier 8.7reb/23.4min 14.9/40min
A. McDyess 8.1reb/23.7min = 13.7/40min
Randolph 6.7reb/19.8min 13.5/40min
Fortson 7.6reb/23.4min 13.0/40min
Duncan 9.6reb/30.2min = 12.7/40min
Ku. Thomas 1.1reb/3.5min 12.6/40min (5.4reb/16.5min as soph = 13.1/40-min)
C. Webber 10.0reb/31.9min 12.5/40min
Brand 7.3reb/23.5min 12.4/40min
Murphy 9.9reb/33.0min 12.0/40min
Okafor 9.0reb/30.0min = 12.0/40min
T.Hill 8.4reb/28.4min 11.8/40min
Camby 6.4reb/21.9min = 11.7/40min
B. Grant 8.5reb/29.1min 11.7/40min
Mutumbo 3.3reb/11.3min = 11.7/40min (as a soph, DNP as frosh)
Bosh 9.0reb/31.0min = 11.6/40min
Magloire 4.4reb/15.7min 11.2/40min
Odom 9.4reb/34.9min 10.8/40min
B.Miller 4.8reb/17.9min = 10.7reb/40min (thx nbrans)
Boozer 6.3reb/23.7min = 10.6/40min
Ke.Thomas 7.8reb/29.7min 10.5/40min
Lee 4.7reb/18.0min = 10.4/40min
D. Marshall 6.1reb/26.9min 9.1/40min
S. Hawes 6.4/28.9min = 8.8/40min (8.3 pace adjusted)
A. Davis 1.8reb/8.6min = 8.4/40min (6.5reb/30.2min as soph = 8.6/40min)

Marion = ? (community college)
Wallace = ? (community college)
Garnett (did not play in college)
Chandler (did not play in college)
Howard (did not play in college)
Jefferson (did not play in college)
Ming (did not play in college)
J.Oneal (did not play in college)


So there you have it. Of all the guys who have averaged 10rebs/gm in the NBA in the last 7 years, Hawes had better frosh stats than exactly 1 -- Antonio Davis who was not ready, did not play, was undersized, ended up having to go play in Europe for a year (or was it two) jsut to get into the NBA, averaged 10+ rebs exactly one time in his career (and just barely at 10.1) and has a career average of 7.5 rebs/gm. The only other guy remotely in his vicinity is Donyell Marshall, who guys of course long to be compared to, and is a tweener forward. Rebounding is like any other aptitude, you normally show it early and then its just refining.

 

[nbrans]

^Brad Miller averaged 4.8 rebounds in 17.9 minutes, so 10.7 per 40.

Thanks for putting all that together. And yikes it's scary.