Well, there's no accounting for GM stupidity. The question is always going to be ... what can a player get elsewhere? Will Horford find a team willing to offer him 27 million a year even though he's not a franchise player? Probably. If it's the Lakers or the Nets will that even matter? Is he going to want to be the #1 option in the prime of his career on a team that's still a long way away from competing? Why not just take the extra guaranteed year and stay in Atlanta at that point? If you look at the team situations of the top players in the league -- Curry, Harden, KD and Russ, Lebron, Lillard, Davis -- Houston is the only other team that isn't going to play Al at C and that's only if they keep Howard. After that he's looking at young teams like Minnesota, Portland, Boston, or Orlando that have some pieces in place but may or not turn into competitive situations. What we have to offer is a top 5 player in the league as a teammate and a move to the PF position which he's wanted for years. Will that be enough? I really don't know, but it is probably the best option we have so it's worth pursuing. Thibs is going to get a lot of offers this off-season. Minnesota looks like a good spot for him but I would think he'd have to take a long look at a team with Rondo, Gay, Horford and Cousins. Just by focusing on the defense he can get that team into the playoffs and make some noise.
It's beyond me why would you think that's a stupid move, giving a max to a FA like Horford is something teams will fight to do (I honestly can't get how you can call the main guy on a 60 win team "not a franchise player"), especially since other than Durant he is by far the biggest FA in a year where the majority of the league will have cap space.
It's kind of cool that you actually think that we are such a good destination and that you don't see the irony in putting the sentence:
"Is he going to want to be the #1 option in the prime of his career on a team that's still a long way away from competing?"- as a reason to join a team in the midst of a decade of playoff drought that will (maybe) crack 30 wins this season for the first time in a while.
Since you mentioned Lilard as a top player, why can't they offer him the PF spot? what about a team like Boston that has everything set other than a big like Horford- has a huge amount of assets to either collect young talent next to him or to trade for the help he'll want, and can easily clear cap and give him the max (Both Amir Johnson and Jerebko have team options)- again I think you completely underestimating his options.
Boston is already competitive, and Portland is doing a lot better than we are.
I think you are overestimating how many people outside Sac thinks Cousins is a top 5 player, and the result of being a perennial under 30 win team.
The main disconnect for me on the shooting issue is that I don't think you need feared sharpshooters on the floor to be an effective shooting team. The pace and space strategy which is so popular right now isn't the only way to play the game. A lot of Cousins' three point jumpers this season have been wide open. As long as he keeps hitting 36% of them, he's not hurting us with those looks so I hope people continue to leave him open. Same with Rondo. The goal is to score points right? Whether the defense has to respect you or not, if the shot goes in it's still helping the team. I don't think we're ever going to be a team that beats you primarily with three point shooting but with Cousins/Horford/Gay we'd have three guys who can create a shot near the basket or come out and hit a jumper in the 18-25 foot range. That's a lot of tactical flexibility for a half-court offense. That's a better version of the Memphis Grizzlies' grind it out from the inside gameplan. And imagine running a pick and roll where the big setting the pick is just as dangerous popping out for a three, rolling to the basket for a dunk, or passing on the move to a wide-open three. Even without feared shooters around them, two bigs who can do that are going to be impossible to guard.
Again I agree with some of this if Horford will come, but I don't think he will.
Pace and space isn't the perfect strategy but it's far better than the alternative we are going for, you mentioned Memphis- they are not a good offensive team, why would you model your offense after a team known for it's defense.
When Cousins is at the 3pt line he isn't inside and that's something I think most people here will say isn't ideal, and while Rondo is shooting at a respectable rate, defenses leaving him wide open is worth it for them to double or triple other players, especially since Rondo will look away from a lot of open looks and while 36% isn't bad it's also not that great.
You're right that a lot of the shooting we have this year is tied up in redundant or non-complimentary parts. The main goal I had when trying to improve this roster for next season was to eliminate the players who aren't being effective (Belinelli, Koufos) find more guaranteed minutes for the players who are being effective (Seth, Quincy) and try to reduce the positional redundancy. In my projected lineup I have Quincy Acy getting all of his minutes at PF, Omri getting all of his minutes at SF, and Seth Curry getting all of his minutes at PG so they wouldn't be redundant anymore. The main reason I want to trade Collison is that he plays the same position as Rondo and there's no reasonable way to keep both of them on the floor without sacrificing defense. Curry should be playing more -- making him the primary backup PG accomplishes that. Omri should stick to SF -- which means playing him a little less but making sure we get him good looks when he is on the court. Quincy should stick to PF and bring his energy game for the 10 or so minutes where our main guys need a breather. The beauty of a Cousins/Horford/Cauley-Stein rotation is that all of them can play C or PF so you're never forced to react to other team's lineups. We can match up with quickness or size in the frontcourt.
I agree with all of it, I think that regardless of what path we will choose this has to happen.
And I don't think the perimeter D projects as awful. Rondo, Gay, and McLemore are limited as defenders but they're only awful in George Karl's scheme. All hyperbole aside here, the three of them have played solid defense at times this season -- we just need to get them to do it consistently. Slowing the game down and making it a stronger emphasis should help. Omri for 18 minutes or so per game at SF isn't a liability. He boards well and he's an average man-to-man defender. Curry is solid at the PG position and we'd be trying to trade Collison and Belinelli (about $11 million in salary) to a team that needs backcourt depth and shooting for a big guard who's at least an average defender. Short of tearing the whole thing down and rebuilding it in one off-season (which almost never happens) -- average perimeter D combined with very good interior D sounds like a realistic goal for next season.
Will have to agree to diagree on this one, Rondo has been a bad defender for a while now, and I think it has far less to do with the scheme and far more to do with his constans gambles, lack of effort and physical limitations.
Gay has been a bad (or atleast under average) defender his whole career and I doubt it will change, and while Ben looks as potentially in reality based on whole data he is nothing more than average, and when he is by far your best defender it's not looking good.
I do agree thought that with the right scheme it can look better and having WCS and Cousins there can potentially help with the lack of perimeter D.
You may be right that this isn't doable. Maybe nobody wants Marco or Kosta. Maybe Horford signs for $27 million a year. Maybe no quality coach wants to come here. Maybe Rondo moves on. If I were in charge I would try to make these moves happen because I don't see how signing a bunch of mid-level free agents changes our team outlook. I'm not interested in creating a 10 man rotation because no team that's any good plays that way. It's 8 guys in the playoffs and those 8 guys all have to be good. Any trade or signing which isn't quantity for quality is moving backward in my opinion.
I believe that Kosta will have a market, Marco is a different story.
I believe we can get a good coach because Vivek seems willing to invest big money in it and there are only 30 seats for an NBA Head Coach.
And I don't mind Rondo moving on personally.
But I do agree with you that signing mid-level free agents doesn't change the team outlook and I share your perspective that a roster deep with mediocre players is getting you nowhere.
That's way, barring a miracle, I think we should break the team and start over... and yes, I know I'm in the minority (though a growing one) here but I just don't see this team being competitive enough to make Cousins stay- and I know that losing him for nothing can set us back for a VERY long time.
