Hurricane Rita

[Bricklayer]

A bit heavy, but a report just came out (8:30 ET ) that Hurricane Rita has come barreling into the Gulf and has gained strength at an astonishing speed. Yesterday morning it was a tropical storm. In the last hour it has just become a Category 5 with winds of over 160mph, making it one of the strongest storms on record and 30mph stronger than Katrina. Its over 350 miles wide.

Current trajectory has it headed at Galveston/Houston, about 120 miles west of what remains of New Orleans.

Edit: Galveston's city manager has said the storm surge could approach 50ft. Galveston is only 8ft above sea level with a 17foot sea wall.

 

[HndsmCelt]

Has to suck to be one of the peopel diplaced from New Orleans by Katrina only to find refuge in Houston which is now facing a cat 5... wost kind of bad luck.

 

[AleksandarN]

If you guys want to learn alot about what is happening with Rita I recomend going to Clutchcity they have a big thread about Rita

here is the thread

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=101780&page=24&pp=30

here is live action motion of Rita

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=FloaterImagery&product=Float5Loop&prodnav=none&pid=none

They are now saying it is more powerful than Katrina and it is the third most powerful storm ever in the Altantic Basin

WTNT63 KNHC 212351
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[AleksandarN]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. The models are not suggesting this at all, but is also possible that Rita may not make landfall on Saturday as expected, but pull up just short of the Texas coast and pound it for days as it waits for the next trough to pick her up. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.

The 7:09 pm eye report from the hurricane hunters found a 904 mb pressure and flight level winds of 161 knots (186 mph). This pressure makes Rita the 3rd strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Tonight, Rita will be passing over the Loop Current, a warm eddy of water in the Gulf that aided Katrina's growth to a Category 5 hurricane. Fueled by this pool of deep warm water and an almost ideal upper level wind environment, Rita should continue to intensify until Thursday morning, when she will pass beyond the Loop Current. The eye has shrunk to 20 nm diameter from 25 nm earlier this afternoon. By the time the eye shrinks down to 10 nm, the eyewall will collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle begin, putting an end to this intensification cycle. With potentially another 12 hours to go before this happens, Rita could challenge Gilbert's 888 mb pressure record.

The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:

Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)

The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)

Hurricane Rita (898 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)

Hurricane Katrina (902 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)

I expect to rewrite this list when the next reconnaissance aircraft reaches Rita about 9pm tonight. How low can Rita go?

Jeff Masters

 

[loopymitch]

This hurricane season is just crazy. I hope the people of galveston are listening to the mandatory evacuation so their lives will be spared. They're probably going to run out of letters to name them with this year. Guess they have to start at A again. They also say next year could be worse

 

[Bballkingsrock]

I got bad news about this......

CNN said after this hurricane, gas prices might go up to $5 a gallon!!!!

 

[Bricklayer]

Unbelievable that two of these monsters would hit this close together on the coast and only a few weeks apart to boot. Completely unprecedented so far as I know.

Camille had sustained winds of 190mph and gusts of as high as 210-220mph. And this storm sounds like it could be as strong. I certainly hope nobody tries to ride this one out -- a killer storm if ever there was one.

 

[D-Mass]

This hurricane season is just crazy. I hope the people of galveston are listening to the mandatory evacuation so their lives will be spared. They're probably going to run out of letters to name them with this year. Guess they have to start at A again. They also say next year could be worse

IF global warming is a factor in this, this may become a somewhat regular occurrence. Let's hope this year is an aberration.

 

[BibityBobtyBoom]

gas prices suck! stupid hurricanes.

 

[AleksandarN]

Let's hope this year is an aberration.

sadly I do not think this is the case. Our world is becoming more and more unstable. The G8 summit this year was dedicated to gobal warming so was a couple of U.N. gatherings. This is becoming a serious concern to every country. That is I was surprised that Brushj rejected the Koyoto accord when other European countries and Canada signed on. In Canada it is becoming more and more evident that the environment is getting worse with Toronto becoming more and more like L.A. when it comes to smog I could never recall having smog warnings in Canada now it is a every day occurance in Toronto and that is just in the last year.

 

[D-Mass]

sadly I do not think this is the case. Our world is becoming more and more unstable. The G8 summit this year was dedicated to gobal warming so was a couple of U.N. gatherings. This is becoming a serious concern to every country. That is I was surprised that Brushj rejected the Koyoto accord when other European countries and Canada signed on. In Canada it is becoming more and more evident that the environment is getting worse with Toronto becoming more and more like L.A. when it comes to smog I could never recall having smog warnings in Canada now it is a every day occurance in Toronto and that is just in the last year.

Unfortunately, I agree with you. Scary stuff, indeed...

 

[hoopsfan]

sadly I do not think this is the case. Our world is becoming more and more unstable. The G8 summit this year was dedicated to gobal warming so was a couple of U.N. gatherings. This is becoming a serious concern to every country. That is I was surprised that Brushj rejected the Koyoto accord when other European countries and Canada signed on. In Canada it is becoming more and more evident that the environment is getting worse with Toronto becoming more and more like L.A. when it comes to smog I could never recall having smog warnings in Canada now it is a every day occurance in Toronto and that is just in the last year.

The air quality in this country has improved immensly since I was a kid. I remember we used to have many days where we couldn't play outside because of the smog...and my sister had asthma which was really affected by it. I'm not saying the air quality is good by any stretch of the imagination..just that it has improved. A far as global warming...it's becoming a serious concern of every country...except the US. Bush doesn't believe there is such a thing as global warming. If this hurricane "season" doesn't show that there is, (including the 4 that hit Florida last year), than I don't know what would.

 

[Evenstar]

stupid global warming....


5 dollars a gallon for gas??? someone shoot me now.........

if that happens FOR THE LOVE OF GAWD STOP DRIVING!!!!!! if everyone does it, it WILL make a difference

 

[HndsmCelt]

Actually for years climatoligists have been saying that on of the first things to happen with increases in global tempetures/warming of torpical watters would be an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms/huricains...Still sucks but this probably is more like the general shape of things to come rather than an aberation.

 

[Bricklayer]

Actually for years climatoligists have been saying that on of the first things to happen with increases in global tempetures/warming of torpical watters would be an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms/huricains...Still sucks but this probably is more like the general shape of things to come rather than an aberation.

Well, you can't have TOO many of these things hit every year or it would eventually become impractical to build anything along the entire Gulf Coast that was not made of cement (not a bad idea actually). You'd practically have to abandon every town within 50 miles of the coast if they were all just going to be blown down every few years.

 

[Fillmoe]

wow.... what is going on with the world...... TIMES IS HARD!

 

[HndsmCelt]

Well, you can't have TOO many of these things hit every year or it would eventually become impractical to build anything along the entire Gulf Coast that was not made of cement (not a bad idea actually). You'd practically have to abandon every town within 50 miles of the coast if they were all just going to be blown down every few years.

Yup I'd hate to see New Orleans disapear... great city but investment wise, just not smart. As for Galvston and Corpus Cristie... been there to and not much of a loss in my book.

 

[EmKingsFan4]

I actually believe that these hurricanes have little to do with global warming...Here's an interesting article.....


Decades of Heightened Hurricane Activity Predicted
By JOHN J. LUMPKIN, AP


http://ar.atwola.com/link/93179288/923870367/aoladp?target=_blank&border=0
WASHINGTON (Sept. 21) - Expect more hurricanes large and small in the next 10 to 20 years, the director of the federal National Hurricane Center said Tuesday.

Max Mayfield told a congressional panel that he believes the Atlantic Ocean is in a cycle of increased hurricane activity that parallels an increase that started in the 1940s and ended in the 1960s.

The ensuing lull lasted until 1995, then "it's like somebody threw a switch,'' Mayfield said. The number and power of hurricanes increased dramatically.

Under questioning by members of the Senate Commerce subcommittee on disaster prevention and prediction, he shrugged off the notion that global warming played a role, saying instead it was a natural cycle in the Atlantic Ocean that fluctuates every 25 to 40 years.

Mayfield predicted several more named tropical storms this year. The latest, Hurricane Rita, is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November. Since record-keeping started in 1851, the record is 21 tropical storms, in 1933.

Mayfield also listed a number of cities and regions in addition to New Orleans he believes are "especially vulnerable'' to damage from a major hurricane: Houston and Galveston, Texas; Tampa; southern Florida and the Florida Keys; New York City and Long Island; and New England.

"Katrina will not be the last major hurricane to hit a vulnerable area,'' he said.

The center's predictions on Katrina's movements were more accurate than usual, but the storm grew more intense more quickly than expected as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico, he said. Three days before it made landfall on Aug. 29, computer models predicted it would hit near New Orleans.

Asked to assess the nation's ability to track hurricanes, one expert before the panel said forecasters have grown better at predicting the path of a storm over a few days but lag in their ability to gauge its intensity, rainfall distribution and surge in water levels.

Better sensors, computers and computer models of hurricane behavior can lead to improved forecasts, said Keith Blackwell of the Coast Weather Research Center at the University of South Alabama.

Senators praised the National Hurricane Center's accurate prediction of Katrina's track, calling it one of the few things the government has done correctly in regards to the storm.

"The people that did get out from the storm owe their lives to you and your people,'' said Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska.



http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20050921121009990023
09/21/05 01:02 EDT

 

[RoyalDiva]

Unbelievable that two of these monsters would hit this close together on the coast and only a few weeks apart to boot. Completely unprecedented so far as I know.

Camille had sustained winds of 190mph and gusts of as high as 210-220mph. And this storm sounds like it could be as strong. I certainly hope nobody tries to ride this one out -- a killer storm if ever there was one.

I think that a lot of people in Rita's vicinity have learned from the H.K. tragedy that it is NOT safe to ride it out. At least I would hope so!

 

[Evenstar]

Actually for years climatoligists have been saying that on of the first things to happen with increases in global tempetures/warming of torpical watters would be an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms/huricains...Still sucks but this probably is more like the general shape of things to come rather than an aberation.

i agree.

and what really sucks is WE are the ones who have to pay for it.

i think it would be a good idea for some of these refineries to start moving inland since the countries gas supplies are low, driving up prices when they shut down.

 

[VF21]

The news just reported that Rita has been downgraded to a Category 4. AND it looks like the good people of Galveston Island are NOT taking any chances, along with a lot of other residents of the Texas gulf coast.

 

[6th]

18 of 26 top oil refineries in the U.S. have already been shut down. With no serious damage from the Hurricane, it could take 2 weeks to get the refineries going again......with any damage, even longer.


American Petroleum Institute says please don't top off your tank ahead of the price increase, as the gasoline supply in the U.S will be severely disrupted.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Time to trade in for a hybrid/ride my bike/take the bus...

 

[thesanityannex]

You'd practically have to abandon every town within 50 miles of the coast if they were all just going to be blown down every few years.

The sad thing is, they keep rebuilding these hurricane stricken towns with even bigger buildings than the previous ones. You'd think they might think about that before the next rebuilding project starts.

sidenote: I took an environmental science class last semester and if I remember correctly, global warming and smog have little to do with eachother. Smog and CFC's cause holes in the ozone layer, these holes in the ozone are not the cause of global warming. The holes in the ozone will be nonexistent in a relatively short period of time. All you science buffs can correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[thesanityannex]

American Petroleum Institute says please don't top off your tank ahead of the price increase, as the gasoline supply in the U.S will be severely disrupted.

they need to enforce a restriction on gas like in the old days where say odd numbered license plates can get gas on certain days, and evens on another day. When people rush to the pumps in order to get cheap gas at the same time, the result is even more expensive gas prices than if everyone was to ride it out.

 

[chelle]

Gas prices are outrages across the nation - no denying that. However, right now I have a hard time focusing on that. What I do know is we can't handle another hurricane like Katrina. We just can't. My heart hurts and my mind can't comprehend that another storm of this magnitude is going to hit the Gulf coast again.

 

[hoopsfan]

they need to enforce a restriction on gas like in the old days where say odd numbered license plates can get gas on certain days, and evens on another day. When people rush to the pumps in order to get cheap gas at the same time, the result is even more expensive gas prices than if everyone was to ride it out.

That really didn't work. I remember...people with multiple cars just changed license plates and went back to the station...if the price was right.

 

[thesanityannex]

That really didn't work. I remember...people with multiple cars just changed license plates and went back to the station...if the price was right.

well, dishonest people will always be dishonest, but if enough people would see how much it would help, gas wouldn't skyrocket. speaking of gas..........i'm going to fill up now, I heard gas is going up to 5.00 a gallon after Rita!!!! Everyone else, take my advice and wait while I fill up.

 

[loopymitch]

Did anyone else see the highways they showed on the news earlier leading out of Houston? Thye order mandatory evacuation and then a lot of places run out of gas so they can't leave. Those poor people are stuck. One couple said it took 9 hours to go 50 miles. The whole situation's ridiculous IMO. It was no secret that the hurricane was coming so a better evacuation plan should have been administered. What are those people supposed to do now?
gas already went up 10 cents today and it's going to get a lot worse if we don't run out completely.

 

[chelle]

The big problem is that they have shut down the refineries. It takes 4 days to get them totally up and running at full speed again. Then it becomes an issue of getting the gas out. We have a good anount stored. Getting it to stations gets rough.

As for the traffic -

Houston has never had to evacuate before. Beleive it or not, New Olreans actually got that right. The people who left during the voluntary and first mandatory evacuation orders only had to drive 2-3 hours to get to Baton Rouge (usually an avg of 45 min) When there was a mass evacuation for Ivan last year, it took 8-10 hours for the same trip. We worked out the kinks with our contra-flow then. Blessing in disguise, I guess.

It is a massive undertaking to evacuate a city. They have messed up, but nobody really has had experience before this summer with this magnitude of evacuation.

Prayers for all!