How This Could All Still Work Out This Year

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
So, there has been much wailing and gnashing of teeth around here, much deserved, some perhaps not. But what if the situation can still be saved?

Some promising things I have noted in the last week:

1) Still Some Soft Schedule Left -- We've got 5 more games left in what should have been the sort part of our schedule. All 4 home games are winnable if we play well/like we have been playing the last 3-4 games: Min, Ind, Tor, Orl, with a tough road game in Clipperland sandwiched in the middle. Despite everything, if we could actually go 4-1 over that stretch, we would still come out of the early season mess 8-10 and on the periphery of the hunt.

2) Lineup Changes Have Revived the Offense -- since making the switch to Brooks and Salmons 4 games ago, the Kings have averaged 103.3pts a game on 51.1% shooing, with all 4 games coming against playoff calber teams. We averaged 91.3ppg over the first 9 games of the season with the old lineup.

3) Brooks as starter -- Aaron Brooks has now started 5 games for the Kings. Over the course of those games he is now shooting 70.4% from the field. Which will kind of get it done. I didn't like the Aaron Brooks signing because in his best years he was a chucker -- same thing that kills me about Jimmer's game, when the best thing you do is dribble down and chuck up threes off your own dribble, well, that's the most selfish shot in basketball. That's the lazy deluded guy's shot on the pickup court, and everybody else wonders why they even bothered to run down court. But something has happened here I did not expect -- Brooks isn't chucking much as a starter. He's letting Reke take the ball and do his thing, which is making Reke better, and Brooks is showing some veteran saavy. Ask him to run the team as a lone ballhandler and he is still erratic as he ever was -- he is not a natural creater. But now have him play Beno, or even really more off the ball than Beno, and be a willing spot shooter and secondary initiator who understands how to feed the post from his Yao days and all of a sudden we look a lot better. Really now, let's flash back to 2009-10: Brooks averages 19.6pts 5.3ast as the Most Improved Player, Reke averages 20.1pts 5.8ast as the Rookie of the Year, and Marcus Thornton as a rookie averages 14.5ppg in 26min a night, and 20.3ppg after the All Star break. If those guys are your three guards, and if they click, how much more backcourt offense could you possibly need?

4) Reke is back -- since walking off the court shaking his head after the Atlanta loss, Tyreke Evans has suddenly reemerged as Tyreke Evans. Except now all of a sudden that jumper is falling, which has long been the "watch out" signal for him. In the last 4 games, notably since the lineup changes may have cleared up the everybody has a green light/nobody gets in rhythm problem, Reke is averagng 21.3pts 5.0reb 4.5ast 1.8stl on .525 shooting, and in relatively short minutes (32min) too. If that can sustain than we suddenly have one of our pillars back, and its not a coincidence that all of a sudden we can score. Just as importantly is HOW Reke is scoring, as for the past 5 or 6 games that jumper has suddenly started to fall, which opens up incredible opportunities. Combined with a sideline decision to let Reke initiate, no matter what you call his posiiton, and the future has brightened once more.

5) Cousins is not back -- and this is a huge reason for hope in my mind. Boogie has gotten off to a terrible start for him, and not the one he hoped to at all (a 'terrible" start for Boogie is only 16.1pts 9.6rebs a game). And 90% of it has been continuing to be out of control emotionally. Sooner or later that is going to turn. He was already averaging 20-10 the second half of last season, the talent is there, and now suddenly the lineup is coalescing out there around him. When, not if, but when he finally gets into a groove, there is our window of opportunity if the Reke/Brooks backcourt holds and continues its productivity.

6) Reke/Cousins 2 man game -- this is on the coaching staff. Along with finally giving the ball back to Reke, there has been the gradual at first, but now increasing use of a Reke/Cousins two man game. How do you get both young stars involved at once? Let them play off each other. Not rocket science. We were seeing Cousins to Reke backdoor cuts and whatnot early, then started to see Reke drive and dumps to Cuz, then a smattering of Reke/Cuz pick and rolls, and now this last game we went to a long sequence of just pounding away at the Jazz possession after possession with a high pick sequence with Reke or Cuz ending up with the ball every single time and making things happen. That should be a staple. It should ALWAYS have been a staple. Better late than never though, and if we start settling into a real offense and milking those guys' abiities together, again, there is hope.

7) Rotations -- okay, admittedly this basically comes down to one half of one game: on Saturday vs. the Jazz all of a sudden Keith Smart grew a brainstem and used a rotation an actual NBA coach might use. The starters did not return at the 3min mark, they returned at the 8min mark. After half rather than trying to play all 5 guards on his roster, he shortened it to a 3 guard rotation of Reke/Brooks/Thornton, in fairly classic minutes distribution, using Reke as the swingguard sometimes at PG and sometimes at SG. Backups got backup minutes. Combined with his switching to a 3 man frontcourt rotation in the second half of the previous game, maybe there is some hope here that our coach is going to shorten things up and quit sabotaging us. You don't need to play 11 guys. The most successful teams in the league are nowhere close. The Knicks play 7, and then 2 short minute guys most nights. Ditto for the Thunder. The Heat use 6 main guys and 3 spot players. Even the Spurs only use 8 main guys and 2 spots. Meanwhile Smart has been trying to play NINE guys 20 or more minutes, and another, TRob, significant rotation mins. Makes you wonder who we are emulating and why. But there are signs of that stupidity cracking now, and if it does, it can only help us.
 
These four games have given me new hope. Your point on Cousins is interesting and a hope also. Let's hope for more steps forward than backward. I do expect some of both. The Jimmer/Thomas situation is still troublesome in that they will both continue to get minutes which not a positive unless it leads to a decision about who plays. Keep both Cousins and Thompson happy, each for a different reason and we continue to enhance our base.
 
Reke's turnaround fall-away jump shot up against the clock gave me the most hope. THAT is a confidence building shot if I ever saw one.
 
I've said for some time, the difference maker for Tyreke is his jumpshot. If he continues to hit that shot with regularity, he's a different player, and he could possibly move into the rare air of Wade and company at some point. His jumpshot not only helps spread the floor for Cuz, but it helps him get to the basket as well. I agree that if Cuz gets his mojo going, this team could turn the corner, to quote a friend, and actually make a run at credibility.
 
i agree with everything u said. lets hope he continues to use rotations like he did saturday, and its not that he only did that because of the criticism he took for fridays loss. i also liked the 3 guard rotation in the second half. ive been saying he should do that all season for the whole game. only i didnt think the 3rd guy with reke/MT would end up being Brooks. but im fine with that if he continues to play how he has been
 
The Jimmer/Thomas situation is still troublesome in that they will both continue to get minutes which not a positive unless it leads to a decision about who plays..

ya he need to stop benching Brooks for a whole quarter just so he can get Jimmer/IT some minutes. Brooks didnt play at all in the 2nd on Saturday, after a very effective first quarter

honestly, as mentioned before, both Jimmer and IT should just stay on the bench. a 3 guard rotation with Reke/MT/Brooks (reke playing PG when Brooks is resting) would be the most effective way to coach this team.
 
Indeed, we still have room to be a decent team. If they continue to take advantage of the Reke/Cousins two man game and improve it our offense will be there every night. My hope is Smart continues to show improvements as well. His second/third quarter rotations are still a bit funky but it looks like that game where he left Reke on the bench until the three minute mark and gave away the game taught him a lesson. If the rotations can continue to improve while our two stars get their game in sync I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. The important part of being a good team is consistency. The two man game between our large guard and skilled center is one that should be repeatable on any given night!
 
I think .500 ball could be doable, but I wouldn't bank the mortgage on it either. Let's see how the next couple of road trips go. A couple of games is too small a sample size to get giddy over. Without Cousins in games it's probably going to be difficult to sustain winning, notwithstanding the last Utah game. With Tyreke still having poor form on his jump shot, I can't get overly excited about that either. Is he a Keith Wilkes or Reggie Miller? Maybe. Maybe he can overcome the poor form and still be a good jump shooter, but I doubt it. I'd like to be proven wrong; I just think that he's going to have more bad nights with that form than good nights. Like I said, I'd like to be wrong, and we can all look back say how Tyreke Evans fall-away Las Vegas kick allowed him to become an All Star. But for now, I've got to see it to believe it.
 
I agree with everything you have said I think a 45-50% win ratio is still makeable, Tyreke has began to rsie from the ashes, Brooks is looking like hes back in Houston and Cousins every year he has been in the League has had slow starts to the season
last season after the first 11 games he avg 15.9 and year before 10.5 before coming good this season hes at 16.1. Tyreke is the best pick and roll passer the Kings have which will result in easy baskets for the bigs something there has been none of pretty much until the last two games. This team when used right can be very good and they have always been tough at home.
 
Reke, I know you don't like Jimmer at all, but don't you think it makes sense to give him around 10-15 min a game to continue to learn and develop? How do the Kings develop a player that they think has potential (regardless of who that player is) if that player just sits on the bench everyday like you suggest?
 
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Great post, lots of valid points. I always thought the season was salvageable because the season was still less than 10 games old when we were playing poorly. This is extremely far from over. Now that we've witnessed coach smart make proper substitutions and lineups for an entire game and given the recent success we can deduce that Smart may now actually be vaguely aware of how to use the roster.
 
I remember you starting a thread like this last year, and the results were disastrous lol. Ehh i just dont see this team being consistent enough to make any kind of significant run. We will win 2 lose 3, win 1 game lose 4. I hope they prove me wrong though.
 
And if Smart had done those things mentioned last year, he'd have been much better off...
 
How do the Kings develop a player that they think has potential (regardless of who that player is) if that player just sits on the bench everyday like you suggest?

I guess u havent heard of the D league. Aka develepment league.

And for the record I do like jimmer. Id love to see him come in and hit 5 3s every game. I just dont think hes good enough to be getting NBA minutes yet. And he shouldnt be the ball handler when he is playing
 
I guess u havent heard of the D league. Aka develepment league.

And for the record I do like jimmer. Id love to see him come in and hit 5 3s every game. I just dont think hes good enough to be getting NBA minutes yet. And he shouldnt be the ball handler when he is playing

Yeah i agree I much rather see Thronton play his mins and bring the ball up the floor cause hes near impossible to pressure due to his burst of speed and athletic abilty.
 
Yeah i agree I much rather see Thronton play his mins and bring the ball up the floor cause hes near impossible to pressure due to his burst of speed and athletic abilty.

Err no thanks. A PG Marcus Thornton is not. His ballhandling isn't very good (compared to a primary ballhandler), gets stripped a lot of times. I'll give you the bit on quickness though.
 
Err no thanks. A PG Marcus Thornton is not. His ballhandling isn't very good (compared to a primary ballhandler), gets stripped a lot of times. I'll give you the bit on quickness though.

Its just as good as Jimmers tbh and hes far quicker with the ball, Jimmer gets pressured and striped far more imo. In the full court even if your handles aint the best if you have quickness it more than makes up for it.
 
Its just as good as Jimmers tbh and hes far quicker with the ball, Jimmer gets pressured and striped far more imo. In the full court even if your handles aint the best if you have quickness it more than makes up for it.

Maybe last year, but this year Jimmer hasn't gotten the ball stripped much. What's the use in having Thornton bring the ball up? If necessary give it to Salmons or something.
 
I guess u havent heard of the D league. Aka develepment league.

And for the record I do like jimmer. Id love to see him come in and hit 5 3s every game. I just dont think hes good enough to be getting NBA minutes yet. And he shouldnt be the ball handler when he is playing

I think he's much better this year, so to me D league doesn't make sense to a player who's shooting very well in the limited minutes he's had. Does he need to improve his defense and handles? Absolutely. But compared to last year, I think many would agree he has, but still has a way to go.

I agree he shouldn't be the ball handler right now, as I would like to see him get some more minutes with tyreke, and have jimmer play off the ball.
 
I remember you starting a thread like this last year, and the results were disastrous lol. Ehh i just dont see this team being consistent enough to make any kind of significant run. We will win 2 lose 3, win 1 game lose 4. I hope they prove me wrong though.

I am pretty sure the thread last year was TIC.

There is no reason for a young team to give up on the season after 15 games. There is still a lot of ball left to be played.
 
I'm gonna be a negative Nancy here but I don't see us really improving much. We're just in the middle of a 3 game stretch where we went 2-1 and should have won all 3. We had multiple stretches like this the last couple years where we all got excited and then had our hopes dashed away.

The lineup change has definitely made us a better team. No doubt about that. Our defense has taken a hit but our offense is a plus over the loss on D. If Salmons can just give us a 3 or two a game and a couple of elbow jumpers, we're instantly a better team. Throw in Brooks taking open looks with that nice 3 point stroke and we can go back to at least having more than 40 points at halftime.

Tyreke has made a few good shots, a couple of really lucky ones and the other half have been misses. He's made a couple of rainbow prayer shots in recent games that's kind of fooled us into thinking his jump shot is all the sudden for real. To me his jump shot looks closer to where it was during his rookie year, but it's not improved. The rainbow jumpers look cool when they go in, but there's a reason why players don't shoot like that. It looks like his shot is the same, but he's gotten over the mental block that at least allows him to shoot like the 3rd option on a high school team. The mental block has officially been passed to JJ.

Cousins hasn't been playing all that well and we've still won a couple of games. That is encouraging. Our problem is, our best 3 players in Tyreke, Cousins and Thornton are all wildly inconsistent from night to night. Obviously if we could get at least 2 of the 3 to play well on any given night, we have a shot at a win. Problem is, usually it's 1 of the 3 that has a good night and you can't win while your best players are struggling. We've seen Tyreke do this before where he comes out and he's looking like he's turned the corner, only to crawl in a hole for a couple weeks and give us next to nothing. It's hard to win consistently when Jason Thompson is your most consistent player.

Remember the Kings games of old? You kind of knew what you were going to get most every night. Webber would score 25, Peja 18, Bibby 15, Vlade 12 etc etc. Obviously it wasn't the same every night but you could pretty much guess their shooting percentages and where they would end up at the end of the year. With this team, it's just a crap shoot because they are so inconsistent. No one here can even make an educated guess because we have no idea who is going to show up from night to night.

Also congrats to Keith Smart for setting a correct rotation for one half of one game this year. Someone please give him a cookie and put a gold sticker on his forehead.
 
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I'm gonna be a negative Nancy here but I don't see us really improving much. We're just in the middle of a 3 game stretch where we went 2-1 and should have won all 3. We had multiple stretches like this the last couple years where we all got excited and then had our hopes dashed away.

The lineup change has definitely made us a better team. No doubt about that. Our defense has taken a hit but our offense is a plus over the loss on D. If Salmons can just give us a 3 or two a game and a couple of elbow jumpers, we're instantly a better team. Throw in Brooks taking open looks with that nice 3 point stroke and we can go back to at least having more than 40 points at halftime.

Tyreke has made a few good shots, a couple of really lucky ones and the other half have been misses. He's made a couple of rainbow prayer shots in recent games that's kind of fooled us into thinking his jump shot is all the sudden for real. To me his jump shot looks closer to where it was during his rookie year, but it's not improved. The rainbow jumpers look cool when they go in, but there's a reason why players don't shoot like that. It looks like his shot is the same, but he's gotten over the mental block that at least allows him to shoot like the 3rd option on a high school team. The mental block has officially been passed to JJ.

Cousins hasn't been playing all that well and we've still won a couple of games. That is encouraging. Our problem is, our best 3 players in Tyreke, Cousins and Thornton are all wildly inconsistent from night to night. Obviously if we could get at least 2 of the 3 to play well on any given night, we have a shot at a win. Problem is, usually it's 1 of the 3 that has a good night and you can't win while your best players are struggling. We've seen Tyreke do this before where he comes out and he's looking like he's turned the corner, only to crawl in a hole for a couple weeks and give us next to nothing. It's hard to win consistently when Jason Thompson is your most consistent player.

Remember the Kings games of old? You kind of knew what you were going to get most every night. Webber would score 25, Peja 18, Bibby 15, Vlade 12 etc etc. Obviously it wasn't the same every night but you could pretty much guess their shooting percentages and where they would end up at the end of the year. With this team, it's just a crap shoot because they are so inconsistent. No one here can even make an educated guess because we have no idea who is going to show up from night to night.

Also congrats to Keith Smart for setting a correct rotation for one half of one game this year. Someone please give him a cookie and put a gold sticker on his forehead.

Well, an optimist would look at Evans being more on-the-ball and say that he's always been consistent in his production when he's been the main ballhandler. In his sophomore year his numbers were a little down and he missed many games due to injury, but otherwise he was still producing on a consistent basis. It was only last year and early this season when we moved him off the ball that his production became very inconsistent.
 
You make some good points Brick, but....

When has Smart ever stuck with what worked?

Last season, we had that stretch of 10 games where we went .500 against tough competition. What does Smart do? Go away from the lineup that was working (Reke/MT/Salmons/JT/Cousins) and start dicking around with Small ball for the rest of the year....With crap results.

Until we get an actual coach in Sac, I'm going to temper my optimism.
 
people, remember that the title of the thread is How This Could All Still Work Out This Year. brick's just noting a few positives and outlining a pathway for success. it certainly does not mean that keith smart will settle on a proper rotation for good, or that demarcus cousins will wake up on the right side of the bed and start dominating the center position, or that any other number of factors won't step in to derail the kings even further. but if things break just right, this team could start winning enough to build the kind of confidence necessary to a) justify retaining talents that will demand big contracts in the coming seasons, and b) make a push for the playoffs in the coming seasons. tempering expectation is a worthwhile pursuit given the malaise that this franchise has endured in the last half a decade, but it's also nice to stand for a moment in that tiny shaft of light cutting through the heaving, threatening, jet-black storm clouds above...
 
people, remember that the title of the thread is How This Could All Still Work Out This Year. brick's just noting a few positives and outlining a pathway for success. it certainly does not mean that keith smart will settle on a proper rotation for good, or that demarcus cousins will wake up on the right side of the bed and start dominating the center position, or that any other number of factors won't step in to derail the kings even further. but if things break just right, this team could start winning enough to build the kind of confidence necessary to a) justify retaining talents that will demand big contracts in the coming seasons, and b) make a push for the playoffs in the coming seasons. tempering expectation is a worthwhile pursuit given the malaise that this franchise has endured in the last half a decade, but it's also nice to stand for a moment in that tiny shaft of light cutting through the heaving, threatening, jet-black storm clouds above...

I imagine that's what a lightning strike looks like while you're standing in it. (emoticon goes here)
 
Its just as good as Jimmers tbh and hes far quicker with the ball, Jimmer gets pressured and striped far more imo. In the full court even if your handles aint the best if you have quickness it more than makes up for it.

There's perception, and then there's reality. Perception is usually based on one's mental image of something, with no regard to the reality of the present. In other words, players in the NBA who start out with flaws, usually work on those flaws and improve in that area. Fact: In 13 games this year, Jimmer and Thornton have been two of the better players at not turning the ball over. Each has exactly 9 turnovers in 13 games, which is an average of 0.8 turnovers per game. Those stats make Thornton look even more impressive considering that he gets more minutes per game than Fredette.

Now I agree that Thornton isn't a PG. He's simply not built that way. But he's very capable of handling the ball, and bringing the ball up the court. Jimmer has far better PG instincts, but unfortunately or fortunately for him, his strong suit is shooting the ball, which apparently is what the Kings want him to do.

Edit: I had to come back and correct myself. Jimmer only played in 11 games, so, he had 9 turnovers in just 11 games. When you consider that 6 of those 9 came in one game in Portland, he's taken care of the ball very well in every other game. Many with no turnovers at all. Just to give some prespective to those stats, lets look at the main culprits on the team that do turn the ball over a lot.

Cousins: 30 turnovers in 11 games, averaging 2.7 turnovers a game.
Evans: 28 turnovers in 13 games, averaging 2.2 turnovers a game
I. Thomas: 20 turnovers in 11 games, averaging 1.8 turnovers a game
J. Johnson: 23 turnovers in 13 games, averaging 1.8 turnovers a game
J. Thompson: 15 turnovers in 13 games, averaging 1.2 turnovers a game

One of the better averages comes from A. Brooks, who has had only 10 turnovers in 13 games, averaging 0.8 turnovers a game. Now I grant you that those who are the primary ballhandlers usually have more turnovers than those that aren't. They handle the ball more and they attempt more passes. So I give them more slack. But you do have to give credit where its due, and Brooks, Thornton, and to some extent Fredette do a better job of taking care of the ball. At least so far this year.
 
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There's perception, and then there's reality. Perception is usually based on one's mental image of something, with no regard to the reality of the present. In other words, players in the NBA who start out with flaws, usually work on those flaws and improve in that area. Fact: In 13 games this year, Jimmer and Thornton have been two of the better players at not turning the ball over. Each has exactly 9 turnovers in 13 games, which is an average of 0.8 turnovers per game. Those stats make Thornton look even more impressive considering that he gets more minutes per game than Fredette.

Now I agree that Thornton isn't a PG. He's simply not built that way. But he's very capable of handling the ball, and bringing the ball up the court. Jimmer has far better PG instincts, but unfortunately or fortunately for him, his strong suit is shooting the ball, which apparently is what the Kings want him to do.

Edit: I had to come back and correct myself. Jimmer only played in 11 games, so, he had 9 turnovers in just 11 games. When you consider that 6 of those 9 came in one game in Portland, he's taken care of the ball very well in every other game. Many with no turnovers at all. Just to give some prespective to those stats, lets look at the main culprits on the team that do turn the ball over a lot.

Cousins: 30 turnovers in 11 games, averaging 2.7 turnovers a game.
Evans: 28 turnovers in 13 games, averaging 2.2 turnovers a game
I. Thomas: 20 turnovers in 11 games, averaging 1.8 turnovers a game
J. Johnson: 23 turnovers in 13 games, averaging 1.8 turnovers a game
J. Thompson: 15 turnovers in 13 games, averaging 1.2 turnovers a game

One of the better averages comes from A. Brooks, who has had only 10 turnovers in 13 games, averaging 0.8 turnovers a game. Now I grant you that those who are the primary ballhandlers usually have more turnovers than those that aren't. They handle the ball more and they attempt more passes. So I give them more slack. But you do have to give credit where its due, and Brooks, Thornton, and to some extent Fredette do a better job of taking care of the ball. At least so far this year.

Yup, from my memory Jimmer has done a much better job this year. But I was talking purely about getting the ball stripped, not turning the ball over through bad passes or offensive fouls, and in my mind that's happened to MT a lot more than to Jimmer or any of the other PGs. Tyreke was losing the ball quite a bit in the early part of the season when he attacked the paint, but again that's not what I'm referring to with regards to which player you'd want bringing the ball up the floor.
 
Yes this thing still COULD be turned around but the question is will it be?

I guess we might start getting the answer to that tonight against Minny.
 
people, remember that the title of the thread is How This Could All Still Work Out This Year. brick's just noting a few positives and outlining a pathway for success. it certainly does not mean that keith smart will settle on a proper rotation for good, or that demarcus cousins will wake up on the right side of the bed and start dominating the center position, or that any other number of factors won't step in to derail the kings even further. but if things break just right, this team could start winning enough to build the kind of confidence necessary to a) justify retaining talents that will demand big contracts in the coming seasons, and b) make a push for the playoffs in the coming seasons. tempering expectation is a worthwhile pursuit given the malaise that this franchise has endured in the last half a decade, but it's also nice to stand for a moment in that tiny shaft of light cutting through the heaving, threatening, jet-black storm clouds above...


Well said my friend.
 
While I'm not too much of a negative person, I have about 5% of faith of the Kings still "working it out". We need a trade come the Feb. deadline and get rid of our cluster of shoot first guards, we need to rid ourselves of Garcia, Outlaw or Salmons and attach a young player to get it done.
 
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