Hard data on Murray's defense (split from the T-Wolves [Game] thread)

[Capt. Factorial]

I was thinking it was James Ham? The same type of assumptions and premature conclusions. James Ham concluded before Keegan even played a game yet that he was a PF, and could only guard PFs. Also that his ceiling was Harrison Barnes or Marvin Williams.

Sactowndog is sactowndog. He has disclosed sufficient personal details in the past to suggest strongly to me that he is "just a dude" and not a name you would have any reason to know, and certainly not Ham. For the record, I do believe that the whole Dartboard Doxxing thing is below the dignity of this board.

 

[SacTownKid]

The Kings defense is what it is in terms of certain negatives but it's certainly not because of Keegan. The only area I think you can see he struggles is with yes, insane off the bounce ability when on smaller players (but who doesn't?) and on screen plays (which is a symptom of team defense, not necessarily Keegan). Vassell used pick and roll a plenty against the Kings, not just destroying Keegan one on one over and over.

 

[kingsfan101]

If only coach Brown had 2 defensive stoppers he could put on the floor at the same time...... wait, what???.... we do have that on our team?!?!?!

Makes you wonder what a starting lineup with Keegan and Keon would do defensively to the opposing team.

I want Keon to succeed as much as any other fan, but he hasn't earned that role yet.

Yes, he's played well when his number is called, but Kevin deserves the spot above him. First of all, Kevin is much bigger (6'7'', 198 lbs vs 6'3'', 175 lbs). In the past, people have pointed out that Keon's standing reach is longer compared to his height, but I guess it's still less than Kevin's, and weight matters too.

And there are two sides of the ball. While his numbers are down this year (36.9%), Kevin was a 40.2% 3 pt shooter last year, and over the last 5 seasons, has had only one season below 38%. Keon is at 36% in much fewer attempts. Kevin also has a better rebound and FT% rates than Keon. Plus, he's just an year (and change) older than Keon.

Keon will add ball handling from the 2 position compared to Kevin, and perhaps slightly better defense. However, it may not help the team as much, since Fox will be the primary handler in the first unit, and lot of offense will flow through Domas. He might be more useful when Fox sits.

And while this is a Keegan thread, and this post has already morphed away from that significantly, I'm more excited about Colby. Perhaps a case of the shiny new toy, but he has legit size, is just 21 years of age, and brings some of the same strengths as Keon. His shooting needs to improve, but he's still young, and there is hope there.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

I want Keon to succeed as much as any other fan, but he hasn't earned that role yet.

Yes, he's played well when his number is called, but Kevin deserves the spot above him. First of all, Kevin is much bigger (6'7'', 198 lbs vs 6'3'', 175 lbs). In the past, people have pointed out that Keon's standing reach is longer compared to his height, but I guess it's still less than Kevin's, and weight matters too.

For clarity here.....Huerter was measured at 6'6.25 without shoes. Ellis at 6'3.5 and his combined wingspan and standing reach is actually slightly longer than Huerter

 

[ockingsfan]

Keon will add ball handling from the 2 position compared to Kevin, and perhaps slightly better defense.

Kevin is a passable defender and he tries, but it's pretty clear IMO just from watching Keon during games that he is a far superior defender to Huerter. Keon has quicker hands and has way better anticipation. Keon's like an elite safety in football, he can telegraph where the ball will go and disrupt the passing lanes and get his hands on balls. His offense is not up to Huerter of course, but I would venture a guess that if Keon got consistent starter minutes he could average a respectable 8-10 ppg with elite defense.

 

[Telemachus]

Kevin is a passable defender and he tries, but it's pretty clear IMO just from watching Keon during games that he is a far superior defender to Huerter. Keon has quicker hands and has way better anticipation. Keon's like an elite safety in football, he can telegraph where the ball will go and disrupt the passing lanes and get his hands on balls. His offense is not up to Huerter of course, but I would venture a guess that if Keon got consistent starter minutes he could average a respectable 8-10 ppg with elite defense.

I probably wouldn't make any changes right now, but here's how I look at it. One of of our biggest weaknesses this season has been consistent production from our bench. Moving Keon into the starting SG spot helps us defensively and wouldn't hurt us too much on offense. Huerter going to the bench should help the bench be more productive.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I was thinking it was James Ham? The same type of assumptions and premature conclusions. James Ham concluded before Keegan even played a game yet that he was a PF, and could only guard PFs. Also that his ceiling was Harrison Barnes or Marvin Williams.

I hate busting on Ham (well maybe not really), but he had such a hate boner for Monte because he didn't get adequate draft night green room treatment that he wrote off everything he did in 2022 until the results showed otherwise. His podcasts all summer were crazy speculations about how long til Monte is fired and what a mess he made. He's stuck around this market a lot longer than anyone else who had "ambition" and it's not because he loves the team (imho).

Whatever about sactowndog but I do believe he does love this team.

 

[sactowndog]

Keegan has been one of the best PoA defenders in basketball this year, so that's not really a great argument. Basically no one has been better in ISO situations than him.

I agree Keegan is a very good defender. I disagree he is a 1-4 defender. How many games have you attended and watched him live?

 

[sactowndog]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1757098587958419750

so again I think Keegan is a very good defender but I disagree he is a 1-4 defender. Your stat proves nothing unless it breaks those two things out.

 

[sactowndog]

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?PerMode=Totals&TypeGrouping=defensive&dir=A&sort=PPP

Keegan is at the 92.6th percentile in defending isolation in terms of points per possession allowed at 0.64 PPP. This is 27th in the NBA among players who have defended at least 10 isolations...but 5th for players who have defended at least 30 isolations:

RJ Barrett, 30, 0.60
Kyle Anderson, 49, 0.61
Herb Jones, 32, 0.63
Kevin Durant, 61, 0.64
Keegan Murray, 75, 0.64

As you can see, he is the best in the NBA among players who have defended at least 75 isolations this year, and on top of that he draws the iso assignment, as only 9 players have defended more isolations - and all of them are bigs except Luka and Keegan, so most of those are probably picking up a guard who has penetrated to the paint, whereas Keegan typically picks up these assignments starting at the perimeter.

His FG% allowed in iso is vanishingly small - 24.6% - but his overall numbers only put him at that 92.6th percentile because he does give more than his share of fouls/FTs in those situations. He fouls in iso 14.7% of the time, while Rudy Gobert on similar attempts fouls only 3.8% of the time - I'll leave it up to the eye test to determine whether Keegan really fouls in iso defense 4x as frequently as Gobert.

Edit - I see Telemachus put up a tweet with similar data that is from pre All-Star break while I was writing. Keegan's numbers have slumped a bit, but still are top notch.

again your data doesn’t address the point. If the question is Keegan a very good defender we all agree. The question is can he defend the quicker 2-3 wings in the league. We would need defensive stats against those kind of players.

 

[sactowndog]

Sactowndog is sactowndog. He has disclosed sufficient personal details in the past to suggest strongly to me that he is "just a dude" and not a name you would have any reason to know, and certainly not Ham. For the record, I do believe that the whole Dartboard Doxxing thing is below the dignity of this board.

well considering I said I share season tickets that should be the first clue I’m not Ham. lol.

 

[sactowndog]

The Kings defense is what it is in terms of certain negatives but it's certainly not because of Keegan. The only area I think you can see he struggles is with yes, insane off the bounce ability when on smaller players (but who doesn't?) and on screen plays (which is a symptom of team defense, not necessarily Keegan). Vassell used pick and roll a plenty against the Kings, not just destroying Keegan one on one over and over.

just for clarity. I never said Keegan was a poor defender. This board has a tendency of taking a point a running away with it.

1) Keegan is a very good defender.

2) Keegan lacks the quickness to guard the quicker 2-3 wings.

both those points can be true.

 

[SacTownKid]

just for clarity. I never said Keegan was a poor defender. This board has a tendency of taking a point a running away with it.

1) Keegan is a very good defender.

2) Keegan lacks the quickness to guard the quicker 2-3 wings.

both those points can be true.

I agree.

 

[NewArena]

People really need to stop calling him a stretch four because Kevin O’Connor comped him to Al Horford before the draft for some dumbass reason.

That is one of the worst player comparisons I’ve ever seen lmao

 

[sactowndog]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1752441325956616235

There's NO PoA defense in here is what you're trying to say?

so let’s talk about who Keegan is defending in those clips….

John Collins
Laurie Markannan
Steph Curry at 35
Reeves
Old Westbrook
Lebron

————————————————-
Donovan Mitchell
SGA

again great defense but generally not longer quicker wings with the exception of SGA

which led me to look at SGA match up data. I’m going to put very good defensive players.

Herb Jones. 9:37. 2-8
Keegan 12:55. 4-9
D Brooks 20:53. 3-11
Nickel Walker 10:25. 2-6
Keon Ellis 9:11. 2-7

 

[The_Jamal]

so let’s talk about who Keegan is defending in those clips….

John Collins
Laurie Markannan
Steph Curry at 35
Reeves
Old Westbrook
Lebron

————————————————-
Donovan Mitchell
SGA

again great defense but generally not longer quicker wings with the exception of SGA

which led me to look at SGA match up data. I’m going to put very good defensive players.

Herb Jones. 9:37. 2-8
Keegan 12:55. 4-9
D Brooks 20:53. 3-11
Nickel Walker 10:25. 2-6
Keon Ellis 9:11. 2-7

If we're going to pull individual match up data, doesn't Keegan have tremendous numbers vs Luka?

 

[sactowndog]

If we're going to pull individual match up data, doesn't Keegan have tremendous numbers vs Luka?

I would expect he would. Luka isn’t quick as much a smart big and strong. Keegan also is pretty good against LeBron. I’m not saying Keegan is a bad defender. I think he is a very good defender but I wouldn’t match him up against quicker 2-3’s.

but look at match up numbers against guys like Booker, Vassell and SGA. Keegan is average at best. Booker kills him for example.

 

[hrdboild]

so let’s talk about who Keegan is defending in those clips….

John Collins
Laurie Markannan
Steph Curry at 35
Reeves
Old Westbrook
Lebron

————————————————-
Donovan Mitchell
SGA

again great defense but generally not longer quicker wings with the exception of SGA

which led me to look at SGA match up data. I’m going to put very good defensive players.

Herb Jones. 9:37. 2-8
Keegan 12:55. 4-9
D Brooks 20:53. 3-11
Nickel Walker 10:25. 2-6
Keon Ellis 9:11. 2-7

Steph Curry at 34 eliminated us from the playoffs last year and Steph Curry at 35 might take Fox's All-NBA spot this season. He's still a problem and he's exactly the type of player Keegan is supposed to be too slow to defend, according to the post which kicked off this discussion (yours).

 

[sactowndog]

Steph Curry at 34 eliminated us from the playoffs last year and Steph Curry at 35 might take Fox's All-NBA spot this season. He's still a problem and he's exactly the type of player Keegan is supposed to be too slow to defend, according to the post which kicked off this discussion (yours).

no he is not given I kicked off the post. Steph is a great shooter and smart as hell but especially at 34 he is not among the quickest players in the league.

 

[The_Jamal]

no he is not given I kicked off the post. Steph is a great shooter and smart as hell but especially at 34 he is not among the quickest players in the league.

Perhaps, but he's absolutely one if the most impossible players to guard with his movement. Not the quickest athletically, but in terms of basketball movement? He absolutely is

 

[funkykingston]

Perhaps, but he's absolutely one if the most impossible players to guard with his movement. Not the quickest athletically, but in terms of basketball movement? He absolutely is

Steph was never elite in terms of pure speed/quickness, but his quick release and ability to pull up from anywhere within 35 feet or so has always made him a really difficult cover. And to my eye he hasn't slowed down much at all.

 

[Tetsujin]

Perhaps, but he's absolutely one if the most impossible players to guard with his movement. Not the quickest athletically, but in terms of basketball movement? He absolutely is

Even if Steph “isnt quick” anymore, Spida, who Keegs also defended well, is. Also he was on some combination of Reaves, Russell, and Dinwiddie all last night and absolutely sonned all of them while also checking Lebron on all the other possessions.

 

[funkykingston]

Even if Steph “isnt quick” anymore, Spida, who Keegs also defended well, is. Also he was on some combination of Reaves, Russell, and Dinwiddie all last night and absolutely sonned all of them while also checking Lebron on all the other possessions.

It definitely seems like there's a lot of goalpost moving in this thread. Both the advanced stats and eye test say Keegan has been fantastic on defense this year.

Why we're trying to qualify that with comments about how Steph has lost a step or that Luka isn't blazingly fast is odd to me. And the person who was demanding that everyone prove that Keegan is good on defense with stats then pulls a very small sample size to show that he didn't shut down SGA, an all-NBA level guard? How does cherry picking 9 possessions prove anything?

Who is the best player on the Warriors? Who is the best player on the Mavs?

Keegan is routinely guarding the best player on other teams 1-4. That in itself is huge for a 2nd year player. The Kings need better defenders who aren't liabilities on offense. We all see that. But Keegan is a very good and bordering on elite defender. He's far from the guy I'd be nitpicking on that side of the ball as far as the Kings' roster goes.

 

[sactowndog]

Perhaps, but he's absolutely one if the most impossible players to guard with his movement. Not the quickest athletically, but in terms of basketball movement? He absolutely is

sure because he reads well and cuts off that with great anticipation. Keegan has that as well and uses it to be a very good defender.

 

[sactowndog]

Even if Steph “isnt quick” anymore, Spida, who Keegs also defended well, is. Also he was on some combination of Reaves, Russell, and Dinwiddie all last night and absolutely sonned all of them while also checking Lebron on all the other possessions.

I agree Spida is a decent counter example but I also think Spida was small enough Keegan could use length on him whereas he can’t as effectively against longer and as quick players like Booker and Vassell

 

[sactowndog]

It definitely seems like there's a lot of goalpost moving in this thread. Both the advanced stats and eye test say Keegan has been fantastic on defense this year.

Why we're trying to qualify that with comments about how Steph has lost a step or that Luka isn't blazingly fast is odd to me. And the person who was demanding that everyone prove that Keegan is good on defense with stats then pulls a very small sample size to show that he didn't shut down SGA, an all-NBA level guard? How does cherry picking 9 possessions prove anything?

Who is the best player on the Warriors? Who is the best player on the Mavs?

Keegan is routinely guarding the best player on other teams 1-4. That in itself is huge for a 2nd year player. The Kings need better defenders who aren't liabilities on offense. We all see that. But Keegan is a very good and bordering on elite defender. He's far from the guy I'd be nitpicking on that side of the ball as far as the Kings' roster goes.

your right there is lots of goal post moving.

No one is asking to prove Keegan is good on defense.

what is being stated is Keegan isn’t quick enough to guard quicker 2-3 wings. Steph isn’t one of those and Spida sort of is but is very undersized for that position.

nobody has posted data on the types of players that are beyond Keegan’s wheelhouse. Oh and Vassell went for 30 again last night.

 

[Srzly]

your right there is lots of goal post moving.

No one is asking to prove Keegan is good on defense.

what is being stated is Keegan isn’t quick enough to guard quicker 2-3 wings. Steph isn’t one of those and Spida sort of is but is very undersized for that position.

nobody has posted data on the types of players that are beyond Keegan’s wheelhouse. Oh and Vassell went for 30 again last night.

9 or 11 of those (depending on how you count the pick and roll) was while Keegan was defending. 5 of those points were FTs.

Vassell did not score 30 on Keegan…

 

[funkykingston]

your right there is lots of goal post moving.

No one is asking to prove Keegan is good on defense.

what is being stated is Keegan isn’t quick enough to guard quicker 2-3 wings. Steph isn’t one of those and Spida sort of is but is very undersized for that position.

nobody has posted data on the types of players that are beyond Keegan’s wheelhouse. Oh and Vassell went for 30 again last night.

As Srzly noted, Keegan wasn't the primary defender on Vassell most of last night. He's very rarely been the primary defender on most of the guys you want to use as examples, because coaches generally don't like to crossmatch when they don't have to just because it makes defensive communication easier.

But since you keep using them as examples - who are the defenders that routinely hold Booker and SGA well below their season averages each time they match up?

 

[sactowndog]

9 or 11 of those (depending on how you count the pick and roll) was while Keegan was defending. 5 of those points were FTs.

Vassell did not score 30 on Keegan…

like I said I didn’t see the game so I won’t comment on that game specifics. But Keegan does not have good match-up numbers against Vassell.

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630170/head-to-head?dir=D&sort=SECONDS

 

[sactowndog]

As Srzly noted, Keegan wasn't the primary defender on Vassell most of last night. He's very rarely been the primary defender on most of the guys you want to use as examples, because coaches generally don't like to crossmatch when they don't have to just because it makes defensive communication easier.

But since you keep using them as examples - who are the defenders that routinely hold Booker and SGA well below their season averages each time they match up?

if Keegan wasn’t the primary defender want to explain how he has the highest minutes among Kings in match up data for both players

Vassell: Suggs, Brooks
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630170/head-to-head?dir=D&sort=SECONDS

Booker: Nesmith, Hardaway Jr.
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1626164/head-to-head?dir=D&sort=SECONDS