Hard data on Murray's defense (split from the T-Wolves [Game] thread)

[Tetsujin]

Nothing says small sample size abberation like THJ:Book Stopper

 

[twslam07]

if Keegan wasn’t the primary defender want to explain how he has the highest minutes among Kings in match up data for both players

Vassell: Suggs, Brooks
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630170/head-to-head?dir=D&sort=SECONDS

Booker: Nesmith, Hardaway Jr.
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1626164/head-to-head?dir=D&sort=SECONDS

You’re looking at those stats backwards.

Your links show when those players defend Murray (not when Murray defends those players). Also, you shouldn’t have to go to each individual matchup to look at these stats for Murray. You can just go to Murray’s profile to see his defensive matchup stats against opponents. You can find it here: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631099/head-to-head

Here's a summary of what those stats show (limited to players who have a minimum of 10 min) and adjusted to be per 100 possessions:



He's done fairly well against Mitchell (quick wing), Edwards (quick wing), and Mathurin (quick wing), but there are other players you classify as "quick wings" that he hasn't done well against. Perhaps this suggests he has the ability to defend quick wings and it actually has more to do with a players skill level, small sample sizes, etc.

Sometimes it takes a player a bit to figure someone out defensively, how they move, their go-to moves, etc. It doesn't mean they don't have the physical tools to defend them. And then there is the chance that the guy you're defending is just on fire which skews the small sample (which was my impression of the Keegan's defense on Vassell in particular).

 

[sactowndog]

You’re looking at those stats backwards.

Your links show when those players defend Murray (not when Murray defends those players). Also, you shouldn’t have to go to each individual matchup to look at these stats for Murray. You can just go to Murray’s profile to see his defensive matchup stats against opponents. You can find it here: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631099/head-to-head

Here's a summary of what those stats show (limited to players who have a minimum of 10 min) and adjusted to be per 100 possessions:

View attachment 12477

He's done fairly well against Mitchell (quick wing), Edwards (quick wing), and Mathurin (quick wing), but there are other players you classify as "quick wings" that he hasn't done well against. Perhaps this suggests he has the ability to defend quick wings and it actually has more to do with a players skill level, small sample sizes, etc.

Sometimes it takes a player a bit to figure someone out defensively, how they move, their go-to moves, etc. It doesn't mean they don't have the physical tools to defend them. And then there is the chance that the guy you're defending is just on fire which skews the small sample (which was my impression of the Keegan's defense on Vassell in particular).

Are you sure? I will double check but was pretty sure the player you are on is the offensive player and the min are their stats when defended by player X. But let me check again. Obviously completely different meaning if flipped

 

[twslam07]

Are you sure? I will double check but was pretty sure the player you are on is the offensive player and the min are their stats when defended by player X. But let me check again. Obviously completely different meaning if flipped

When it says “Player on Defense” I believe it is referring to the player you selected (Vassell, Booker) is on defense and how they do on defense in certain matchups.

I sort of tested this by looking at Jokic. I expected the assists to be high when it said “Player on Offense” and I expected the assists to be much lower when it said “Player on Defense” (and they were).

 

[sactowndog]

When it says “Player on Defense” I believe it is referring to the player you selected (Vassell, Booker) is on defense and how they do on defense in certain matchups.

I sort of tested this by looking at Jokic. I expected the assists to be high when it said “Player on Offense” and I expected the assists to be much lower when it said “Player on Defense” (and they were).

Yeah I agree. Thanks for pointing it out. Will go back and relook at the data

 

[sactowndog]

You’re looking at those stats backwards.

Your links show when those players defend Murray (not when Murray defends those players). Also, you shouldn’t have to go to each individual matchup to look at these stats for Murray. You can just go to Murray’s profile to see his defensive matchup stats against opponents. You can find it here: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631099/head-to-head

Here's a summary of what those stats show (limited to players who have a minimum of 10 min) and adjusted to be per 100 possessions:

View attachment 12477

He's done fairly well against Mitchell (quick wing), Edwards (quick wing), and Mathurin (quick wing), but there are other players you classify as "quick wings" that he hasn't done well against. Perhaps this suggests he has the ability to defend quick wings and it actually has more to do with a players skill level, small sample sizes, etc.

Sometimes it takes a player a bit to figure someone out defensively, how they move, their go-to moves, etc. It doesn't mean they don't have the physical tools to defend them. And then there is the chance that the guy you're defending is just on fire which skews the small sample (which was my impression of the Keegan's defense on Vassell in particular).

My theory would be it’s a combination of length and quickness. Smaller players like Mitchell he can play-off but is still long enough to hinder their shot. Meanwhile Vassell and Booker present more of a problem as he can’t back off to accommodate quickness without them being able to then just shoot over.

It’s why I said 2-3 wings are more problematic

 

[twslam07]

My theory would be it’s a combination of length and quickness. Smaller players like Mitchell he can play-off but is still long enough to hinder their shot. Meanwhile Vassell and Booker present more of a problem as he can’t back off to accommodate quickness without them being able to then just shoot over.

It’s why I said 2-3 wings are more problematic

Sure but Edwards and Mathurin don’t really align with that theory.

 

[sactowndog]

Sure but Edwards and Mathurin don’t really align with that theory.

Yeah maybe. The right metric would be standing reach. But not available for all 4 ….

Mathurin 6’ 9”
Anthony Edwards 6’ 9”
Devin Booker. 6’ 8”
Devin Vassell. 6’ 10.

It would be interesting to map all NBA players on quickness and standing reach. Those guys in the upper right quadrant are whom I hypothesize challenge Keegan defensively.

But not tons of difference in Wingspan from the guys above. Wish I could see standing reach for all of them.

 

[twslam07]

Devin Booker just went for 52 points with a .837 TS%, 9 assists , and a 3:1 AST:TO ratio against NOP.

Having said that, I wouldn’t claim that Herb Jones can’t defend Booker. Great offense beats great defense. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the offensive player.

 

[megapoxy]

Devin Booker just went for 52 points with a .837 TS%, 9 assists , and a 3:1 AST:TO ratio against NOP.

Having said that, I wouldn’t claim that Herb Jones can’t defend Booker. Great offense beats great defense. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the offensive player.

He scored 52 in the previous match vs Pelicans in January so perhaps he cant defend him that well.

 

[twslam07]

He scored 52 in the previous match vs Pelicans in January so perhaps he cant defend him that well.

Let’s maybe put it this way…who is the list of players you’d prefer to have defend Booker over Herb Jones in the league? My list would be awful short.

And is Herb Jones’ defense against quicker wings such a detriment to the team that the Pelicans need to add another player to defend these quicker wings?

 

[sactowndog]

Let’s maybe put it this way…who is the list of players you’d prefer to have defend Booker over Herb Jones in the league? My list would be awful short.

And is Herb Jones’ defense against quicker wings such a detriment to the team that the Pelicans need to add another player to defend these quicker wings?

It will be interesting if Kessler plays him as he has defended him well or Keon plays him. I am increasingly excited by what we have been seeing from Keon as a two way player.

 

[megapoxy]

Let’s maybe put it this way…who is the list of players you’d prefer to have defend Booker over Herb Jones in the league? My list would be awful short.

And is Herb Jones’ defense against quicker wings such a detriment to the team that the Pelicans need to add another player to defend these quicker wings?

Maybe is a bad match for him, it happens. That's the 3rd time in a row Book scores 50+ vs the Pels (had 58 in the last match the previous season) so that should mean something. I wish Herb Jones were a King, and I saw him guarding Fox with 100% success, earlier this season.

 

[The_Jamal]

Let’s maybe put it this way…who is the list of players you’d prefer to have defend Booker over Herb Jones in the league? My list would be awful short.

And is Herb Jones’ defense against quicker wings such a detriment to the team that the Pelicans need to add another player to defend these quicker wings?

I think Herb is probably far and away the best perimeter defender in basketball right now. There's guys with more "pedigree", but I don't think anyone's better than he's been this season.