Going to the Heat game - will we win?

Warhawk

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My wife got me 2 tickets to the Heat game tomorrow as a Christmas gift! Will be up in 207 row S (she overpaid a bit on eBay, but that's OK for the one or two games a year I go to :D ). Seats 11 and 12 - drop by and say hi if you're in the area.

Shaq's still out, right? What are our chances of a win? I'm not very optomistic, but we might pull it out.

Answered my own question:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/recaps/2005/11/30/19151_recap.html

The win was especially important for the division-leading Heat, who opened a five-game road trip and play nine of their next 11 games away. O'Neal is not expected to return before the end of the five-game trip.

 
With Shaq out Miami is imminently beatable and is sporting a 2-4 road record. Would not suprise me at all if we beat them. Of course, also would not surprise me at all if they beat us instead.
 
I think we lost last night after a back-to-back stand. We got winded and beat on the hustle.

I'll take 3 of the last 4. Sure, some of the teams were scrubs, but they are the same scrubs that everyone else plays and some lose to.

I still think we're on an upswing. Our offense is FINALLY starting to match the skill of our players and utilize everyone.

I think the addition of Peja is hurting us right now, because we started to develop our identity while he was out and now we're trying to find a place for him ... and unfortunately for Peja ... it doesn't seem like it's going to be center stage.

I think we have a legit shot of hitting another winning streak ... starting with the Heat.
 
playmaker0017 said:
I think we lost last night after a back-to-back stand. We got winded and beat on the hustle.

I'll take 3 of the last 4. Sure, some of the teams were scrubs, but they are the same scrubs that everyone else plays and some lose to.

I still think we're on an upswing. Our offense is FINALLY starting to match the skill of our players and utilize everyone.

I think the addition of Peja is hurting us right now, because we started to develop our identity while he was out and now we're trying to find a place for him ... and unfortunately for Peja ... it doesn't seem like it's going to be center stage.

I think we have a legit shot of hitting another winning streak ... starting with the Heat.

We were scoring just fine in the games leading up to Peja's injury too. Peja/Reef are entirely interchangeable pieces. Just offense. Different parts of the floor. But just offense. And more than we need. Doesn't really matter if either is out. We score 100 with them, or 100 without them.

Peja's presence didn't lose the game last night. Us being not that good lost the game last night. In the 3 previous games we played a .500 team at home, a 1-15 team at home, and a 3-9 team at home. And so we not surprisingly win. Then we go play an 11-6 team in their gym, and we lose. This is not hard to understand.
 
Bricklayer said:
We were scoring just fine in the games leading up to Peja's injury too. Peja/Reef are entirely interchangeable pieces. Just offense. Different parts of the floor. But just offense. And more than we need. Doesn't really matter if either is out. We score 100 with them, or 100 without them.

I'm not saying Reef OR Peja. I'm saying the team seemed to gel a bit on offense and the flow was a lot better than when Peja was in.

I'm sure the same could be said of Reef.

What I was trying to say is that we have had FAR too many scorers in and having one out helped us gel and create a bit of an identity. Peja is in flux ... with the dynamic seeming to focus on Bibby and Reef right now and seeming to be efficient ... where does Peja fit in ... how do we get him his prerequisite 15+ shots?

Peja's presence didn't lose the game last night.

I don't think it did. Although it definitely didn't help. He was getting killed on defense.

Us being not that good lost the game last night. In the 3 previous games we played a .500 team at home, a 1-15 team at home, and a 3-9 team at home. And so we not surprisingly win. Then we go play an 11-6 team in their gym, and we lose. This is not hard to understand.

At the end of a back to back and in their home ... we lose by 7?

We played them to a draw in all quarters except the second, where we got slaughtered.

I fail to see how this was a given that we should lose or it's any indication that we aren't that good.

Golden State was taken to the wire ... in their gym ... and beat us on hustle points (which I think we don't lose if we had a night's rest).

I'm not saying we are better than Golden State, but I think you are being a little overcritical. As a team, we are playing better.

Personally, I think we lost that game because we thought we could run against a running team. We let them dictate the pace. For the most part ... it worked. But, we had one quarter (no question it was the scrubs coming in) where we got drilled ... I just don't see it as so gloomy.
 
playmaker0017 said:
I'm not saying Reef OR Peja. I'm saying the team seemed to gel a bit on offense and the flow was a lot better than when Peja was in.
I think the team is gelling, too, but I don't think it has anything to do with whether Peja is in or out. It simply has to do with time. The more these players play together the better I expect to see them play (hopefully).
 
kennadog said:
I think the team is gelling, too, but I don't think it has anything to do with whether Peja is in or out. It simply has to do with time. The more these players play together the better I expect to see them play (hopefully).

The ONLY reason I disagree is because on offense you only have a limited number of possessions and an even more limited number of shots.

Peja, Bibby, Reef all require at least 15 shots to be truly effective. From watching Shareef, I can say that the more involved he is on offense, the more he does in other aspects of the game. Better defense, more rebounds, etc. I'm sure the same goes for Bibby and Peja. You can DEFINITELY see that it is true with Bonzi.

Anyhow, there just aren't enough shots.

I think with Peja out, it allowed Reef and Bonzi to open up their game ... and with Peja back these two are going to have to scale back again or alienate Peja. Either course of action, I think will be counter productive for the team.

Bibby is a nice 1st or 2nd option shooter, as he can create.
Reef is a very nice 1st or 2nd option post player who also can create.
Bonzi is the garbage man ... but deserves a few gimme shots for being so tough out there.
Miller is fine with minimal shots and getting his touches turned into assists.
Peja is a GREAT 3rd option, spot up shooter. But, I don't think he'll be happy with that.
 
Which Kings team will show up?

I'd gander that we win this one. Playing at home and motivated by a fairly embarrassing loss to the Warriors, the Kings should be highly motivated.
 
playmaker0017 said:
The ONLY reason I disagree is because on offense you only have a limited number of possessions and an even more limited number of shots.

Peja, Bibby, Reef all require at least 15 shots to be truly effective. From watching Shareef, I can say that the more involved he is on offense, the more he does in other aspects of the game. Better defense, more rebounds, etc. I'm sure the same goes for Bibby and Peja. You can DEFINITELY see that it is true with Bonzi.

Anyhow, there just aren't enough shots.

I think with Peja out, it allowed Reef and Bonzi to open up their game ... and with Peja back these two are going to have to scale back again or alienate Peja. Either course of action, I think will be counter productive for the team.

Bibby is a nice 1st or 2nd option shooter, as he can create.
Reef is a very nice 1st or 2nd option post player who also can create.
Bonzi is the garbage man ... but deserves a few gimme shots for being so tough out there.
Miller is fine with minimal shots and getting his touches turned into assists.
Peja is a GREAT 3rd option, spot up shooter. But, I don't think he'll be happy with that.

Interesting...but I'm not quite ready to put SAR in the same category as Bibby.

It's not about Reef vs. Peja - or at least it shouldn't be. The successful Kings teams of recent memory have found a way for the starters TO WORK TOGETHER. I fully believe they are capable of doing so now.
 
I'm expecting a win Friday. Shaq isn't rushing back either, and is scheduled for a mid-December return.

Whoever said their bench alone will tear us apart, exaggerated big. Walker/Payton/Kapono/.....

I like Simien, and is promising, but he doesn't get many minutes.
 
VF21 said:
Interesting...but I'm not quite ready to put SAR in the same category as Bibby.

Neither would I. Reef is a much more talented player. :D

It's not about Reef vs. Peja - or at least it shouldn't be. The successful Kings teams of recent memory have found a way for the starters TO WORK TOGETHER. I fully believe they are capable of doing so now.

I agree it isn't Reef vs. Peja.

The issue is the amount of shots that exist and what players need to feel satisfied and get in rythm. You replace Peja with Garcia or Reef with Skinner and you've got more shots for the scorers.

The issue is that Peja doesn't do anything except score. Reef is pretty much the same way. As is Bibby.

Each of them needs the ball to be effective. So, not giving them the ball is being INeffective. But, with all three in the game ... one person is going to have to sacrifice their game.
 
Bricklayer said:
With Shaq out Miami is imminently beatable and is sporting a 2-4 road record. Would not suprise me at all if we beat them. Of course, also would not surprise me at all if they beat us instead.

Totally agree with you..........
 
playmaker0017 said:
But, with all three in the game ... one person is going to have to sacrifice their game.
And that's what I liked about the Kings. Everyone on the TEAM was willing to sacrifice their individual game for the TEAM. And it wasn't necessarily the same player every game who was "sacrificing". I don't even like to call it a sacrifice. I like to call it doing whatever it takes for the TEAM to win on any given day.
 
kennadog said:
And that's what I liked about the Kings. Everyone on the TEAM was willing to sacrifice their individual game for the TEAM. And it wasn't necessarily the same player every game who was "sacrificing". I don't even like to call it a sacrifice. I like to call it doing whatever it takes for the TEAM to win on any given day.

I disagree.

I don't really believe Bibby would throttle back the number of shots he takes for the team. I'm not sure, but I think Peja would, although doing that would be stupid. Miller already has. I don't think Bonzi would. I know Reef already has.
 
playmaker0017 said:
Neither would I. Reef is a much more talented player. :D



I agree it isn't Reef vs. Peja.

The issue is the amount of shots that exist and what players need to feel satisfied and get in rythm. You replace Peja with Garcia or Reef with Skinner and you've got more shots for the scorers.

The issue is that Peja doesn't do anything except score. Reef is pretty much the same way. As is Bibby.

Each of them needs the ball to be effective. So, not giving them the ball is being INeffective. But, with all three in the game ... one person is going to have to sacrifice their game.

Sorry, but I still just don't understand why someone has to give up shots to Reef.

SAR is the PF, filling the slot previously occupied by Webber. The PG is still the same, the SF is still the same, the center is still the same and the SG is comparable to DC. So why, all of a sudden, should Reef become the first option?
 
VF21 said:
Sorry, but I still just don't understand why someone has to give up shots to Reef.

You seem to think that everything I say is based on my desire to see Reef do well .... and for a lot of the things I say, it's true.

Unfortunately, it doesn't necessarily mean it isn't well thought out. It also doesn't invalidate the logic behind the argument.

It's NOT about them giving up shots. It's about efficiency. Jumpshooting is NOT a viable long term solution for any success. Period. End of story. Close the book.

So, let me rephrase the question back to you - Why should Reef give up shots? Why doesn't he just force up garbage and covered shots repeatedly?

VF21 said:
SAR is the PF, filling the slot previously occupied by Webber. The PG is still the same, the SF is still the same, the center is still the same and the SG is comparable to DC. So why, all of a sudden, should Reef become the first option?

Well, first, if he is filling in for Webber - then he would be the first option, no? 18-20 shots a game is what Webber was averaging. Those are first to second option numbers on ANY team. I've never really seen Reef as a replacement for Webber. Webber, in the Princeton offense, was a top 3 PF ... an argument that he was among the top 10-15 at the position ever. Reef is NOT Webber. Nor should he be asked to try to be Webber.

Second, instead of putting words in my mouth, why not try to understand the argument. I've not said Reef should be the first option. No where in this thread or in any of my posts. I've said *I* would like that, in a post a long time ago ... and I've said he could handle it ... but I've never said that he is or should be. Do I think this team would have more success with Reef as the primary option? Yes, I think they would. But, I also think if Reef were the first option, he'd still only take 15-16 shots a game and someone else would lead the team in shots.

Being the first option does not necessitate the most number of shots. I think if we establish plays where Reef gets it on the low block, it will open up shots for our spot shooters. Just as Miller on the high block opens up shots for slashers and cutters.

Third, the reason the team should make a concerted effort to get Reef the ball (and they have over the past 3-4 games) is because of efficiency. You have to utilize a player down low to have any modicrum of sustainable success in this league. Peja can't do it. Bibby can't do it. Bonzi can't do it. And for the most part - Miller can't do it. None of them are consistant in the post or big enough.

So, I am a proponent of getting the ball into the post. I like Bonzi down there occationally, but he's easy to shut down and doesn't see the floor extremely well when he's down there. Which leaves .... Reef.

You seem to be stuck in a mindset. Just because the players are similar, doesn't mean they are the same. Doesn't mean they should do the same thing. That Sacramento team was THAT Sacramento team. Trying to plug holes with these players, instead of playing to the team's strengths, is asinine.

There is no question that this team has had more success the further we get from the old way of doing things. We've run a more traditional offense since the San Antonio game. We've thrown motion and a lot of Princeton into it, but we've changed. AND we look all the better for it.

If we want to go back to straight jacking, then so be it. The lottery is fun. We can all sit around and talk about who we want to pick with our top 10 pick.
 
I believe we will win, hands down. I wish I was going and hope those of you that are have a terrific time - as for me I am going to my daughters game at the same time but will sneak out at 1/2 time to hear the score and certainly be listening on the way home :) GO KINGS!
 
Warhawk said:
My wife got me 2 tickets to the Heat game tomorrow as a Christmas gift! Will be up in 207 row S (she overpaid a bit on eBay, but that's OK for the one or two games a year I go to :D ). Seats 11 and 12 - drop by and say hi if you're in the area.

Shaq's still out, right? What are our chances of a win? I'm not very optomistic, but we might pull it out.

Answered my own question:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/recaps/2005/11/30/19151_recap.html

The win was especially important for the division-leading Heat, who opened a five-game road trip and play nine of their next 11 games away. O'Neal is not expected to return before the end of the five-game trip.
Well, we are better than Atlanta!
 
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