Forget defense, the key to winning is scoring

[hrdboild]

The reason "defense wins championships" is because you have to beat a very good team 4 times in a series to advance and then you have to do it again and again. Even the best scorers in the league only make about half of their shots. Everyone is vulnerable to a bad shooting night and if you string a couple of those in a row in a playoff series, that's all it takes sometimes to end your season. Conversely, defense isn't susceptible to bad bounces. If you build your team around the idea that you're going to dominate every game with your defense, you're giving yourself a much better chance to win. Maximizing what you can control is what's important. We're giving up 103 points per game to our opponents over the course of a season and we've managed to win 27 games. San Antonio is giving up 97 points per game over the course of the season and they've won 60 games. Lowering the threshold of success is a much more reliable way to win consistently than stacking your lineup with scorers and trying to get enough touches for everyone. Diminishing returns are going to make it harder and harder to bring that points per game average up. All we have to do is cut our points allowed by 6 per game. That's doable. That takes commitment and focus. This isn't rocket science. Telling players to forget about defense and concentrate on scoring is just not going to get it done.

PS - Cousins is the only player in the league who makes the top 20 list for both steals and blocks per game. He also leads the league in defensive rebounding percentage. The myth that he's a poor defensive player should be put to rest. He's already above average and he should get even better as he gets more experience and develops some trust with his teammates and coach's defensive schemes.

 

[KingMilz]

PS - Cousins is the only player in the league who makes the top 20 list for both steals and blocks per game. He also leads the league in defensive rebounding percentage. The myth that he's a poor defensive player should be put to rest. He's already above average and he should get even better as he gets more experience and develops some trust with his teammates and coach's defensive schemes.

He's not a poor defensive player at all if you just base it on his feel/instincts and timing (he's actually good in these aspects) on the defensive end but the fact he picks up really silly fouls on a regular basis and does not really give consistant effort (been a lot better lately) is where the he's not a good defender comes from. He was really poor after the AS break for a while where he gave up non stop season guys on crazy high %'s to players who shouldn't be scoring just cause he was not focused. If he defends he actually good he's hard to move and he's long with good anticaption still has to wise up a bit and give a better effort.

Edit
I'd probably also say he would be top 5-10 in charges drawn but I'm not sure where to find that stat.

 

[Tetsujin]

If that's the goal we will be a 30 win team until we blow it up or land a freak draft pick. Those core group of players have for the most part no idea how to play winning team basketball at either end.

You a couple of weeks ago:

Rudy on offence has been a perfect #2 option since coming over, his defence has been for the most part more than acceptable and I look forward to seeing him and D-Will play well together while Ben watches them.

You a couple of days ago:

Yeah but the offensive system is like that cause of the players we have is it not? Are Rudy Gay/Thomas (fine if he plays like he does as 6th man) long term able to play differently? History suggests not. Which is why I say we can't build anything succesful with the main core we are trying to build around.

So maybe we should slow down before we make any rousing proclamations?

 

[Spike]

Fair point. But what about the flip side of being 5-43 when they don't? That's pretty close to not winning at all. If the record was something more like 15-33 when scoring under 105, that'd be one thing. But losing at a 90% clip really demonstrates how important it is that this team score the ball.

The flip side is just as likely to represent the fact that they're giving up too many points. If you have to score 105 in order to win, you're doing something wrong on the other end of the court. We need to realize that that's where our issue is. Take last night for example. We didn't need 105 points. We just needed 94. Hell, we probably could have done it with 91 given two more stops.

For so many years we've been poisoned to think that scoring more will lead to wins. How'd that work out for Keith Smart? Oddly enough, the team did better during the start of his tenure by focusing on defense. This team, as built, needs to focus on defense, not offense.


The Kings are scoring 100.6 ppg. These are the teams that are holding others below our scoring average (Clips seemed close enough to include). Seems like Boston is the only outlier, because of how many points they're scoring. The rest of them are playoff (or bubble) teams.

Here we are in OPPG. Notice the issue? Again, we keep thinking that scoring more is the solution. It's not. It's pretty simple. This team needs to defend better.

 

[Kingster]

Points allowed and points scored doesn't tell me much. Just the fact that the teams that can score don't allow as many easy baskets or shot opportunities for the opponent leads to questions about the utility of this stat. (It's more difficult to score after the ball is taken out of the basket than it is after getting a long rebound from a missed three point shot). Indiana and Boston are examples of low opposition scoring stats and poor performance. Indiana's defense hasn't gotten any worse, but their offense is putrid and they are in deep deep trouble. So much for the homily that defense consistently gets you wins. The fact is that teams that win generally have both good offenses and defenses.

The key difference is that defense is more of the product of coaching; offense more the product of talent. Note that I'm not saying that defense is ALL coaching and offense ALL talent. It's just that coaching can affect a team's defense more than offense. A coach can teach a guy to be in the right position on defense, but it's far more difficult to teach a guy to put the ball in the hole. That's why consistent scorers in the NBA are a much rarer commodity than guys that can defend. We have a guy on the 10-day roster that can defend. That's much more common than a guy who can consistently score, but can't defend, being on the 10-day roster. I can't recall ever seeing one of those rare birds.

 

[bajaden]

My take is based upon the current make up of the roster. There aren't any proficient defenders on the team, especially amongst the best players. Cousins ain't going anywhere and he'll likely never be anything more than average defensively. I see him like Chris Webber. Dominant offensive talent, ok on defense. Rudy Gay isn't exactly Doug Christie like on defense and Isaiah has size limitations.

Considering the makeup of the core, I think trying to improve the offensive efficiency is the way to go. Similar to the Christie/Bibby trades I outlined, the goal should be to upgrade the passing/shooting abilities of the starting lineup. Basically, seek the type of players Geoff Petrie used to covet.

Given Cousins talents, I believe they should surround him with players who excel at passing/shooting. I used the mid-Nineties Rockets as an example, but probably even a better example is the Shaq/Kobe Lakers. The Kings have no Kobe, obviously, but they can try to fill out their roster with players similar to the role players those Lakers teams had. Shaq was the dominant inside force surrounded by shooters and smart basketball players ... Horry, Shaw, Fisher, etc.

Cousins is no Olajuwon on defense and he's no Shaq, in regards to defending the rim with shotblocking, but Shaq was a terrible screen and roll defender due to being overweight and not having lateral movement. Cousins will never be the rim defender Shaq was, but he can be a better defender in regards to movement and he's just as good a rebounder. The point is, the team can win with him anchoring the team on both sides of the court. They just need better efficiency and shooting on the offensive side.

I don't disagree with much of what you said. Look no further than the Webber/Vlade team. The starting lineup was made up of Vlade, Webber, Peja, Christie and Bibby. Name me all the great defenders in that group. The only one that leaps out is Christie. However, that team was a good defensive team. And it had all the other attributes you just listed. Being a great athlete doesn't make you a great defender. McLemore is a living exampe of that. And being an average athlete doesn't make you a bad defender. To play good team defense you have to have good BBIQ and commitment. You have to do your homework and study film. A lot of players don't want to put in the time. Especially offensive minded players. Defense is hard work, and it only takes one player out of the five to screw up, for the entire defense to break down. Larry Bird said that defense isn't about stopping a player, its about making him uncomfortable. It's making him shoot from places on the floor he doesn't like to shoot from. If he likes to drive right, you make him go left. If your help is in the middle, you don't allow him to go baseline. It's not rocket science, its just hard work.

 

[bajaden]

The flip side is just as likely to represent the fact that they're giving up too many points. If you have to score 105 in order to win, you're doing something wrong on the other end of the court. We need to realize that that's where our issue is. Take last night for example. We didn't need 105 points. We just needed 94. Hell, we probably could have done it with 91 given two more stops.

For so many years we've been poisoned to think that scoring more will lead to wins. How'd that work out for Keith Smart? Oddly enough, the team did better during the start of his tenure by focusing on defense. This team, as built, needs to focus on defense, not offense.
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The Kings are scoring 100.6 ppg. These are the teams that are holding others below our scoring average (Clips seemed close enough to include). Seems like Boston is the only outlier, because of how many points they're scoring. The rest of them are playoff (or bubble) teams.
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Here we are in OPPG. Notice the issue? Again, we keep thinking that scoring more is the solution. It's not. It's pretty simple. This team needs to defend better.

See I could make the argument that if we just kept our points allowed to 103.6 and then upped our points scored to 107.6, we'd be a playoff team with a winning record. That's just as logical as the other scenario. Especially if its easier to do. Now I'm not going to make that argument. I get your point. I just don't think it has to be an either/or thing as some seem to be presenting. In my perfect world, we would reduce our points allowed, and increase our points scored. In my perfect world, we become more efficient on both ends of the court. The problem with this team can't just be summed up in word defense. This team has a lot of problems. We don't pass the ball enough. We turn the ball over too much. You want our points allowed to go down, then cut our turnovers in half, and it'll go down. Its just too easy to look at McLemore getting beat off the dribble, or someone missing an assignment and think that's the problem. Were getting beat by a lot of little things that we keep repeating game after game. On both ends of the court.

None of this is going to change until we get a set lineup that plays together and stays together. There's no point in even discussing the players we have now, with the exception of Cousins, until we know for sure whose on the team and whose not. I think there's going to be wholesale changes this summer. Even McLemore could be gone. I don't put much stock in PDA saying that he has no intention of trading him. That's what he's supposed to say.

 

[Bricklayer]

Edit
I'd probably also say he would be top 5-10 in charges drawn but I'm not sure where to find that stat.

He leads the league in charges drawn with 32. Given that most shotblockers get almost none because they are always going for the block, not the charge, I could make a fairly good argument that those 32 charges really should add about .5 to his blocks per game total, which would go a long way to pumping up his defensive rep.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

One potential problem with this theory at the present time, is that we have a very defensive minded coach. Most of the time, all he wants to talk about is "stopping somebody". It hasn't come to pass with any consistency, but we'll see how things go in the future.

With this in mind, it does appear that there's a lack of offensive variety in plays and sets,...which would be the opposite of what we witnessed with the Adelman led 'golden era' Kings

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I could make a fairly good argument that those 32 charges really should add about .5 to his blocks per game total, which would go a long way to pumping up his defensive rep.

Great point. Cuz does a decent job defensively. Unlike a few others, he actually cares and sacrifices his body to get some stops. As I said a few posts ago, this team can win with him anchoring both sides of the floor. Charges aside, he's become a better shot blocker, which many outsiders haven't bothered to notice yet.

 

[Ugolino]

Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Don Nelson!

LOL. Perfect.

 

[Gilles]

I don't disagree with much of what you said. Look no further than the Webber/Vlade team. The starting lineup was made up of Vlade, Webber, Peja, Christie and Bibby. Name me all the great defenders in that group. The only one that leaps out is Christie. However, that team was a good defensive team. And it had all the other attributes you just listed. Being a great athlete doesn't make you a great defender. McLemore is a living exampe of that. And being an average athlete doesn't make you a bad defender. To play good team defense you have to have good BBIQ and commitment. You have to do your homework and study film. A lot of players don't want to put in the time. Especially offensive minded players. Defense is hard work, and it only takes one player out of the five to screw up, for the entire defense to break down. Larry Bird said that defense isn't about stopping a player, its about making him uncomfortable. It's making him shoot from places on the floor he doesn't like to shoot from. If he likes to drive right, you make him go left. If your help is in the middle, you don't allow him to go baseline. It's not rocket science, its just hard work.

Webber was getting some All-Defensive votes by then, plus Kings were very long in all positions other than PG, plus bench was filled with defenders/hard-working guys. And Kings were just good defensively in 00/01 and 01/02, climbing to elite status only in 02/03, when Clark and Jackson came over, plus Wallace wasn't a rookie anymore and provided a bit of help in limited minutes.