I honestly can't wrap my head around even having a discussion about who will contribute more to winning this coming season between Bjelica and Bagley. Really? Beli is 31 years old, is half the athlete that Bagley is. He has one thing he does well, shoot three's. I lost count last season of how many times I yelled at Beli to shoot the dam ball as he passed up open three's to drive into traffic. So much for BBIQ!
As for defense, both players posted a Drtg of 110 on a team that had little to no defensive scheme in place. Joerger admitted that he didn't install any kind of switching defense. So it was basically, fly by the seat of your pants. That probably works for a veteran player whose been around the block a few times, but not so much for a rookie who has never been asked to play any kind of defense.
Look, I like Beli and I'm not trying to diminish his abilities, but lets not confuse him with a budding star. Beli would likely only start for a few teams in the NBA, while the Kings look at Bagley as a future all star. I happen to agree with them. In 23 mpg last season Beli scored 9.6 points, grabbed 5.8 rebounds and blocked 0.6 shots. But he did what he was supposed to do in most cases shooting 40.1% from the three.
Bagley played 2 minutes more than Beli and scored 14.9 points, grabbed 7.6 rebounds, and blocked 1.0 shots. Actually, he was the leading shotblocker on the team. (very sad) Yes, he only shot 31.3% from the three, which shouldn't shock anyone since he hadn't made his reputation by shooting three's. What is encouraging is that in his final 20 games he shot 35.7% from the three. However, overall he only took 96 attempts versus Beli's 257 attempts. So hardly a fair comparison.
I think the battle for minutes will be between Beli and Holmes, and that will likely be determined by matchups. I suspect that Bagley will average around 32 to 34 minutes a game along with Fox and Barnes. Ariza will get whatever minutes Barnes doesn't, and may actually have some of his minutes stolen by Bog's if the Kings go small. How many minutes Giles gets depends on how big a leap he can make this year, and perhaps the match up, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Giles and Dedmon split the available minutes at center.
The Kings have the ability to match up with almost anyone, at least on paper, but make no mistake, their priority is still to develop their young core, and that's where the bulk of the minutes will go
Beli was head and shoulders better than Bagley last year as far as contributing to wins went.
Beli spent the first few months of the year in the top 25 in both RPM and VORP. Bagley spent the entire season near the bottom couple dozen in RPM. It's no coincidence that the Kings wins started to tail off around the same time Beli's play started to tail off.
Beli's defensive RPM was good for 115th in the league. Bagley was good for 493rd. To put it in perspective, Giles was 230th and WCS was 27th in the league.
Bagley played losing basketball overall while Beli played a high level of winning basketball. I expect Bagley to get better and Beli to get worse or hold pat but it's not crazy to think that the gap might not be closed in Bagley's second season when there was such a huge gap between the two last season.