MassachusettsKingsFan
All-Star
Everyone is right, if healthy the Rockets should be a top 5 team in the west .. but how likely is that? Yao ( and our good friend Kmart ) are always hurt. Losing Scola would hurt too.
ESPN Radio: Kings a top 8 team in the West
- Thread starter Arco Arena
- Start date
L
Lafayette
Guest
Its just 2 guys on the radio that know just as much as you do when it comes to the NBA, nothing special. As a Kings fan Im hoping playoffs, so I don't need to 2 know ones to tell me that.
Heuge
Starter
It is nice to hear, though.
I could see us making a 15 game jump, but not 25.
fairlane1964
Prospect
Aren't you forgetting about Lopez?
Some good analysis in this thread. I think we definitely have some OKC Thunder potential with the pieces we just added. The roster is looking much more well-rounded than it has in a long time with a good mix of scorers and defensive players at most positions. The Thunder didn't break out until their third season with Durant though (and second with Westbrook), and I expect we'll need another year before the chemistry really starts to sing. I'd expect a 15 game improvement this year which ought to keep things interesting for the 8th seed at least until the All-Star break and then a big jump into 50 win playoff seed territory the following year.
That seems like a safer prediction, but if I had to pick a sleeper in the West this year I would consider Sacramento. There's going to be a real sense of energy this year that we haven't seen around this franchise in a long time. It already started on draft day. People are excited and that's going to give the team a big lift I think.
That seems like a safer prediction, but if I had to pick a sleeper in the West this year I would consider Sacramento. There's going to be a real sense of energy this year that we haven't seen around this franchise in a long time. It already started on draft day. People are excited and that's going to give the team a big lift I think.
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sidney
Starter
I see a lot of these measured predictions and I'm not saying they are wrong, but in this case I don't know that it happens in baby steps unless we're talking about a baby with freaky long legs.
Look back to our last great year 02-03 when Chris was healthy and we had defenders like Keon Clark, look at our PF/PA
2002-2003 59-23 101.7 95.2
Last Year:
2009-2010 25-57 100.0 104.4
The defense is the main difference. All we did this summer is get out two poor defenders (Hawes, Nocioni) and put in their place 3 6'11'' + guys that can defend, block shots, and rebound to varying degrees like nothing we've seen around Sacramento for years.
If these guys work together on defense the W/L change is going to be dramatic.
I think 15 wins is dramatic. Part of me is doing the whole Larry David thing and curbing my enthusiasm, because I really think we can be good next season. But we just struggled to win 25 games last year, and all we've really changed is we've added a two shotblockers and a young big man. Those can be really significant additions, but we're still a really young team with two or three unsettled positions in the starting lineup and another couple battles in the 8 or 9 man rotation.
If we had finished last season the way the Thunder finished 2009, I'd be full of unbridled enthusiasm, because they were a .500 team late in the year. We weren't. We finished the season 10-40. Now in there we had a big trade and Reke's concussion, so that record is not indicative of how well we played. We had a number of 2 or 3 point losses, a few in overtime. But still, it's not like we were on fire and trending positive. We were really kind of dysmal for a long stretch last season.
There's also the fact that we play in the Western conference. With Phoenix and Utah taking steps back, that should help us a little. But there's still a ton of midlevel contenders in the West, and we have to play them every night. Even at my most optimistic, I don't think we're a 50 win team. I can't wait to be proved wrong.
Gary
All-Star
Lakers, yes...
Thunder, MAYBE... Last year a fluke kind of like the Warriors season a few years ago? But they will probably be better than us this year.
Denver? yes...
Portland? MAYBE.. This team intrigues me because they haven't really got better but havent really got worse in the last few seasons. Have they added enough talent to get over the hump?
Dallas? yes
Rockets? NO, a BIG NO... Even with Yao I cannot see them doing much of anything beyond .500.
Spurs are getting older.. Seems a slow decline, but it's still a decline.
Suns might be a 35 win team, or a 50 win team. Who knows.
Memphis was a fluke. I can't see them being more than a 35-40 win team.
Gary
All-Star
Remember when we added Grant, and Smith? We went from a 25-30 win team to being one win away from the playoffs (then making the playoffs the following year).. I think that adding these big men might be that difference the Kings needed.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Um, sure, but making the playoffs at that time meant winning 40 games. I think he Grant/Smith bonus was about +10 games. Here we are talking about +20-25 games against a deeper conference.
In a weird way I see this is as the start of it taking a couple wins less to get that 8th seed in the wst. The east is gonna be just as wild so many of the western teams should have a harder time racking up ws. I really wouldnt be surprised if it took 45 wins to get in this year now I defintely dont see the kings winning 45 games this year thats for sure
Gary
All-Star
But I don't think Grant or Smith were on the same level as DMC, and Whiteside (talent wise). Plus this actually might be a season where .500-.525 might get you into the playoffs. I don't think the Kings will make it in but I don't see any reason why they won't be vastly improved.
Telemachus
Starter
Don't forget that the Kings also added Dalembert this off-season. He also brings a defensive post presence and rebounding (& a few blocks).
ParniValjak
All-Star
If the reports are true that Utah are on the verge of getting Al Jefferson, then they are well and truly back in the play-off picture. They have the trade exception from the Boozer trade and are apparently willing to give up first round draft picks for Big Al. Its exactly what the T-wolves are looking for!
Gary
All-Star
And have Landry coming back with a training camp, and Thompson with anothe year under his belt, and Evans with his rookie season out of the way lol.. Maybe Casspi wont wear down as much this year.. This is a nice group of talented players we have, AND we are under the cap!!
You're talking about being a 40 win playoff team though. It takes 50 these days. If you told me that we'd win 40 games this year (25+15=40, which is what I said I am expecting, btw), I'd say right on. But we'd still be 10 shy of the playoffs.
I mentioned before that I'm cautiously optimistic, for all the reasons you mentioned, and more. If we win 45 games and get in the playoffs, I'll be ecstatic. While I think it's not outside the realm of possibility for us to be 20 games better this season, I think it's a bit of a reach.
I also think it's unlikely that 45 wins gets you a playoff berth. The last three seasons, the 8 seed has won 50, 48, and 50 games. You have to go all the way back to 2007 when the Lakers and Warriors both got in with 42 wins. The year before that, we were there with 44 wins. While the West probably won't be as tough this season as it has been the last three, I don't think 45 wins will be good enough.
MassachusettsKingsFan
All-Star
With the recent trades that have gone down, making the playoffs ( which was almost a pipe dream to begin with ) is getting even more out of reach.
Jefferson to the Jazz is a nice fit for them, and I can see them making the playoffs. Suns adding Turkoglu could work. I have no idea how or why, but its an interesting fit.
Jefferson to the Jazz is a nice fit for them, and I can see them making the playoffs. Suns adding Turkoglu could work. I have no idea how or why, but its an interesting fit.
sc3252
Bench
I could name three teams that could drop, but you really have to look at it differently than just seeing teams drop. The Kings could actually be better than some of those top 8 teams this year, it just depends on how the Kings players mesh including how many games we lost because of inexperiance.
sc3252
Bench
Ok, so I decided which teams are going to drop. I am sure I will have people arguing it will never happen, yata yata yata. Here is my ranking of most likely teams to drop
1.Phoenix. They lost Amare, their best player, and Steve is not getting younger by any stretch of the imagination.
2.San Antonio. Yes it seems so unlikely that they will fall off, but they had almost no injuries and just made it to the 7th seed which just so happens to be tied with 6th and 8th. Then there is the fact Tim will be 35 and his production is starting to fall off it looks like they might lose RJ, and then there is Ginobili who is also fairly old(33) and can't play as long as he used to.
3.Utah. They got a equally good player in Al so I doubt they fall off, but they could have an injury to any of their players and could also drop.
I do believe we can make it from one or 2 of those guys droping. My feeling is that both San Antonio and Phoenix will drop, we will see if I am right next year.
1.Phoenix. They lost Amare, their best player, and Steve is not getting younger by any stretch of the imagination.
2.San Antonio. Yes it seems so unlikely that they will fall off, but they had almost no injuries and just made it to the 7th seed which just so happens to be tied with 6th and 8th. Then there is the fact Tim will be 35 and his production is starting to fall off it looks like they might lose RJ, and then there is Ginobili who is also fairly old(33) and can't play as long as he used to.
3.Utah. They got a equally good player in Al so I doubt they fall off, but they could have an injury to any of their players and could also drop.
I do believe we can make it from one or 2 of those guys droping. My feeling is that both San Antonio and Phoenix will drop, we will see if I am right next year.
Dr. Spaceman
Bench
I disagree with those teams you picked to drop. I think they all just made moves to reload (though to what degree Hedo and Hakim will make up for Amare's production is definitely up in the air, I just refuse to doubt the magic of Steve Nash at this point). San Antonio just finally brought over Tiago Splitter to ease up on Duncan's load, and he should be very solid for them, along with their draft pick, James Anderson.
Utah just got an absolute upgrade over Boozer with Jefferson. He's younger, cheaper, more talented in the post, and big enough to not be overwhelmed by the Lakers' frontline like Booz was in the playoffs. And they play about the same type of lock-down defense (read: none). So by many accounts, it's an improvement at the 4. I just feel bad for Paul Millsap, who was probably mentally gearing up for a breakout year as a starter before this news hit.
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sc3252
Bench
I see what you are saying with the Spurs, I just don't think he will make that big of an impact his first year, I also have doubts that a high draft pick will provide that much his first year(at least with trying to provide a playoff spot). Obviously for Utah I just put them in since I think they have the highest chance of not making it out of the others. I am convinced Phoenix will miss the playoffs, they have one old all star and a few nice roll players.
jalfa
Starter
I really don't think that the Spurs will fall off that much. For one, Parker should be healthy this year and their frontcourt, if Splitter pans out (he will), looks pretty damn solid. Phoenix, I think, will miss Stoudemire a bit, but not enough for them to fall out of the playoff picture. They actually have a pretty deep bench and trading for Hedo looks a lot like getting Diaw back in the days. He'll want to prove that he`s worth at least some of that horrible contract and I think he'll do fine as a secondary playmaker and 3point shooter. Utah, though, I think will have problems. Not so much because of Boozer bolting, even before they got Jefferson they would have taken it in stride (it's not like they hadn't done it before) and now, with Al there, they won't have any trouble whatsoever. What I'm more worried about is their guard/swingman rotation. After losing Mathews and Korver, they now severely lack in shooting and generally in talent and it's not like there are too many guards still around.
I think the Spurs are still in the playoff hunt especially after the news of them finally bringing over Tiago Splitter. I think they have the system down pat for getting into the playoffs with the old legs and seeing how much they can get done via the 6-8 range of seeds.
Utah doesn't have any shooting while I love the Big Al trade they have nobody to kick it out to, Korver was there best guy. They were also a very iffy road team last year that relied heavily on their home court advantage to get into the hunt. You'd have to think with a team not as good as last years so far that they would for surely be a candidate to drop out.
None of these rosters have been finalized yet and the season isn't even close to talking, while I think playoff talk is premature my gut is telling me that the Kings will be in talks for 8 next year.
Utah doesn't have any shooting while I love the Big Al trade they have nobody to kick it out to, Korver was there best guy. They were also a very iffy road team last year that relied heavily on their home court advantage to get into the hunt. You'd have to think with a team not as good as last years so far that they would for surely be a candidate to drop out.
None of these rosters have been finalized yet and the season isn't even close to talking, while I think playoff talk is premature my gut is telling me that the Kings will be in talks for 8 next year.
Rookie
Starter
I'm glad we're ranked a little higher than our expectation. However on nba.fanhouse the listing for Top NBA Players...they got John Wall/Evans Turner at the bottom of the list and no freaking Tyreke Evans or even Curry. Have those guys play a single NBA game yet? WTH are those guys smoking?
nickmcclure
Bench
That's crazy. I do think walls gonna be a top player but still curry and tyreke (the reigning Roy) have already proven so much. As for turner, he may take some time to develop. He could very well be great but so far I haven't seen it.
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