ESPN article on Rubio:

Looks like a steve nash type of pick. True potential will show up 4 to 6 years after drafted.
 
But when there is no assist to be had, a typical sequence goes like this: Made floater, missed layup, missed 3, turnover, missed mid-range jumper, airballed 3, turnover, made layup, turnover, made layup, missed 3, missed 3, fouled, missed flip shot, made layup after a fantastic crossover, blocked shot turnover, fouled on the perimeter.
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Well written article. The above observation is spot on but I disagree with the assessment; it is not just a near-term weakness, it's a long term one. This is something that the you-tube armchair experts don't see - when the defense tightens, Rubio struggles. I've heard many basketball greats said that a great player is someone who can create something out of nothing. Rubio is not that player. He's great when the defense falls asleep but he cannot create something out of nothing.

"When there is no assist to be had" is another way of saying the defense clamps down, there is no passing lane, no one is open, and the PG is forced to create something out of nothing. Out of all the PG in this draft, Rubio struggles the most in this environment.

This issue will always be there. The only way to solve it is to become a great scorer like Nash, to use his scoring to mitigate the defense's overplaying. But here's the problem: Rubio will never be as good as Nash as a scorer. You don't go from questionable shooter in age 19 to awesome shooter by age 25. It just doesn't happen.

Don't get me wrong, Rubio will be a solid starter. But all this comparison to Nash/Kidd is ridiculous. Not to mention unfair.
 
beb0p said:
Well written article. The above observation is spot on but I disagree with the assessment; it is not just a near-term weakness, it's a long term one. This is something that the you-tube armchair experts don't see - when the defense tightens, Rubio struggles. I've heard many basketball greats said that a great player is someone who can create something out of nothing. Rubio is not that player. He's great when the defense falls asleep but he cannot create something out of nothing.

"When there is no assist to be had" is another way of saying the defense clamps down, there is no passing lane, no one is open, and the PG is forced to create something out of nothing. Out of all the PG in this draft, Rubio struggles the most in this environment.

This issue will always be there. The only way to solve it is to become a great scorer like Nash, to use his scoring to mitigate the defense's overplaying. But here's the problem: Rubio will never be as good as Nash as a scorer. You don't go from questionable shooter in age 19 to awesome shooter by age 25. It just doesn't happen.

Don't get me wrong, Rubio will be a solid starter. But all this comparison to Nash/Kidd is ridiculous. Not to mention unfair.
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Kidd! NO! But I think that Nash is a reasonable comparison, especially when you consider that he's not that athletic either, and he did take around 5 years to find his way to stardom. The only comparison to Kidd I can see is that Kidd was a terrible shooter when drafted. He's really not that good a shooter now, but certainly better. However, Kidd was a great athlete with great quickness and speed. He could get to the basket anytime he wanted. By the way, I don't think Rubio has to become an awesome shooter. He just has to shoot good enough to make the defense respect him, and I think he can do that.
 
Rubio is a master in the pick and roll, that's where a lot of his offense will come from in the halfcourt. He's not a good pull up shooter, no one will argue that, but he's got potential with his set shot, and if he can get it to the point where he can shoot it with good success over the screen then I think he'll be very effective. He's got great quickness in changing directions and speeds, he's very crafty in the paint and great at knowing where he is. Once he starts to get more polished at finishing around the basket then he'll become a bigger threat, he's not there yet but he's definitely got the tools to get there.

I think Rubio's playmaking abilties and ball handling at 18/19 are better than Nash's were when he came into the league after 4 years of college.

Kidd has actually become a solid set shooter over the course of his career.
 
Vlade4GM said:
Rubio is a master in the pick and roll, that's where a lot of his offense will come from in the halfcourt. He's not a good pull up shooter, no one will argue that, but he's got potential with his set shot, and if he can get it to the point where he can shoot it with good success over the screen then I think he'll be very effective. He's got great quickness in changing directions and speeds, he's very crafty in the paint and great at knowing where he is. Once he starts to get more polished at finishing around the basket then he'll become a bigger threat, he's not there yet but he's definitely got the tools to get there.

I think Rubio's playmaking abilties and ball handling at 18/19 are better than Nash's were when he came into the league after 4 years of college.

Kidd has actually become a solid set shooter over the course of his career.
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I think one point of the article though, is that while Rubio may well be a good passer out of the pick and roll, he isn't very good when the assist doesn't present itself. And in order to be a good P&R point guard you actually have to be a credible threat to shoot off the dribble, like Nash is. Right now Rubio isn't even close to that.

Maybe I'm suffering from confirmation bias, but the more I see/read about Rubio the more I wonder about his long term prospects. Passing can really only take a player so far. You watch early Jason Kidd videos, and he just looked like a dynamic, quick, high flying athlete at 18 as much as he was a sensational passer. And when Kidd came into the league it was a time when the PGs were much slower.
 
bajaden said:
By the way, I don't think Rubio has to become an awesome shooter. He just has to shoot good enough to make the defense respect him, and I think he can do that.
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I'm sure he can do that. But you won't end up with Nash, more like Andre Miller; whom, I think, is Rubio's ceiling. And there's nothing wrong with that.
 
beb0p said:
I'm sure he can do that. But you won't end up with Nash, more like Andre Miller; whom, I think, is Rubio's ceiling. And there's nothing wrong with that.
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I don't see any similarities between Rubio and A Miller, besides they both play the same position.
 
rainmaker said:
I don't see any similarities between Rubio and A Miller, besides they both play the same position.
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Actually there are quite a few similarities. They are both taller PGs who lack ideal quickness and outside shooting but who get by on being very good on the break and good distributors.

I personally think Rubio's ceiling is higher because even though he's a good distributor Andre Miller isn't as creative a passer as Rubio, but at the same time Rubio doesn't have Miller's steadiness. It's not an outlandish comparison.
 
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