Digging deeper into Kings defense (split)

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#31
#34
Walton gets defense. He rewards players that work at it by playing them. The Kings have used defense as the way to win most of their games. This trend is likely to continue. Players that do not figure out how to play team defense are going to sit more. Some will get traded.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#36
a big difference between current defensive effectiveness and defensive potential.
His defense against Morant and Booker wasn't potential. Potential is in the future. Performance is in the past. Those back-to-back performances are in the past. That's reality. I'm sure if you asked Morant and Booker about Fox's defense they wouldn't say, "Oh, potentially he's pretty good as a defender."
 
#37
Anybody that thinks that Hield's defense is remotely similar to Fox's defense I can't take remotely seriously.
again Fox has the potential to be a lock down defender but for much of this year his defense has not been very good. I think at Pheonix against Booker he was locked in and showed his potential. But for many games his rotations have been slow and he has given up too many straight line drives.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#38
again Fox has the potential to be a lock down defender but for much of this year his defense has not been very good. I think at Pheonix against Booker he was locked in and showed his potential. But for many games his rotations have been slow and he has given up too many straight line drives.
Much of the year he's been injured, so yes, you could say that during that time period his defense hasn't been very good:D, and during the few games coming back from injury was just ok. I'll grant you that.
 
#39
His defense against Morant and Booker wasn't potential. Potential is in the future. Performance is in the past. Those back-to-back performances are in the past. That's reality. I'm sure if you asked Morant and Booker about Fox's defense they wouldn't say, "Oh, potentially he's pretty good as a defender."
I agree it was great defense for those 2 games. But Fox has played 20 games and has a defensive win share of .051 while Buddy is a .070. Fox has to bring it every game.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#41
wasn’t great the first 5 games of the season either.
Just who was good during the first 5 games of the season?:D OMG. That's when Dedmon was out there passing the ball to the Invisible Man. This is where statistics can be erroneously interpreted; they always have to be evaluated in context.

I can see Bagley coming back from his injury and after five games we can look at his statistics for "the year" and they won't look very good, at least not up to many's expectations. It's meaningless. What is meaningful is what he's doing 20 games after he comes back from injury. Context is important.
 
#43
Just who was good during the first 5 games of the season?:D OMG. That's when Dedmon was out there passing the ball to the Invisible Man. This is where statistics can be erroneously interpreted; they always have to be evaluated in context.

I can see Bagley coming back from his injury and after five games we can look at his statistics for "the year" and they won't look very good, at least not up to many's expectations. It's meaningless. What is meaningful is what he's doing 20 games after he comes back from injury. Context is important.
are we really disagreeing. With both agree he has had plenty of games he played poorly. We both agree he played well against Memphis and Pheonix. We both hope but don’t know he will play well defensively going forward.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#45
are we really disagreeing. With both agree he has had plenty of games he played poorly. We both agree he played well against Memphis and Pheonix. We both hope but don’t know he will play well defensively going forward.
Yes, we agree on those particular things you mention above. What we may (or may not) agree upon is the following:

I believe that Fox's ceiling on the defensive side of the ball is in the "excellent" category. It's unclear to me whether we agree on that. I can hope that Buddy Hield is going to be a good defensive player one day, but my confidence that he will be is around 10%. I can hope Fox will show for an extended period of time to be an outstanding defensive player. My confidence is 95% on that.
 
#46
Yes, we agree on those particular things you mention above. What we may (or may not) agree upon is the following:

I believe that Fox's ceiling on the defensive side of the ball is in the "excellent" category. It's unclear to me whether we agree on that. I can hope that Buddy Hield is going to be a good defensive player one day, but my confidence that he will be is around 10%. I can hope Fox will show for an extended period of time to be an outstanding defensive player. My confidence is 95% on that.
I think we agree on everything but perhaps the confidence levels. 10% and 95% my be more extreme than I am willing to go.
 

Capt. Factorial

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Staff member
#49
I agree which is why I keep looking at McDaniels in the draft.
This draft is pretty short on full-sized wings. In fact you might be able to count them on one hand. McDaniels uses his length to be a block machine but he's probably the first SF off the board, and I'm not very sold on his offense and decision making at this point. Outside of that, there's Deni Avdija from Israel who has a lot of draft stock (I haven't seen him play at all), and after that you have to dig down to the second round and maybe Chris Smith, who has the body and athleticism, but just hasn't developed the game enough. Obi Toppin looks intriguing but despite being listed as SF/PF I think he's going to be a 4 in the NBA.
 
#50
I agree which is why I keep looking at McDaniels in the draft.
This draft is pretty short on full-sized wings. In fact you might be able to count them on one hand. McDaniels uses his length to be a block machine but he's probably the first SF off the board, and I'm not very sold on his offense and decision making at this point. Outside of that, there's Deni Avdija from Israel who has a lot of draft stock (I haven't seen him play at all), and after that you have to dig down to the second round and maybe Chris Smith, who has the body and athleticism, but just hasn't developed the game enough. Obi Toppin looks intriguing but despite being listed as SF/PF I think he's going to be a 4 in the NBA.
Vecinie’s mock draft on the Athletic today has McDaniels picked 5. A lot can happen between now and June, but might be good to calibrate expectations.
 

Capt. Factorial

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Staff member
#51
Vecinie’s mock draft on the Athletic today has McDaniels picked 5. A lot can happen between now and June, but might be good to calibrate expectations.
My expectation is that we will NOT find a long-term solution at the SF in this draft. That's where I'm calibrated at right now. I'd venture to say from a fit point of view our best hope is probably to find a good young C.
 
#53
Here's an average of the opponents made shots and the opponents FG%. Ranked by FG% and value > from team FG%. One obvious glaring issue here is it implies Cory Joseph is a worse defender than Buddy, which is absolutely not true.

Players FGM FG% % > FGM %
Wenyen Gabriel 0.871.60 0.540 29.9%
Nemanja Bjelica 3.687.73 0.444 6.8%
Cory Joseph 3.557.48 0.443 6.7%
Buddy Hield 4.7810.03 0.440 5.95%
Dewayne Dedmon 1.823.95 0.439 5.63%
Richaun Holmes 4.058.67 0.432 4.1%
De'Aaron Fox 4.379.22 0.430 3.58%
Harrison Barnes 4.8210.35 0.429 3.22%
Marvin Bagley III 3.477.30 0.424 2.02%
Yogi Ferrell 1.753.88 0.423
Bogdan Bogdanovic 3.627.93 0.422 1.6%
Harry Giles III 1.373.00 0.417
Trevor Ariza 3.086.77 0.417 3.3%
Justin James 1.423.18 0.404
Caleb Swanigan 0.471.10 0.383
DaQuan Jeffries 0.421.58 0.158

Here's a Rank by FGM and % from team's FGM avg. Barnes and Buddy seems to be our worse defenders
Players FGM Value > FGM Avg
Harrison Barnes 4.82 77.1%
Buddy Hield 4.78 75.87%
De'Aaron Fox 4.37 60.5%
Richaun Holmes 4.05 48.9%
Nemanja Bjelica 3.68 35.43%
Bogdan Bogdanovic 3.62 32.98%
Cory Joseph 3.55 30.52%
Marvin Bagley III 3.47 27.46%
Trevor Ariza 3.08 13.37%
Dewayne Dedmon 1.82
Yogi Ferrell 1.75
Justin James 1.42
Harry Giles III 1.37
Wenyen Gabriel 0.87
Caleb Swanigan 0.47
DaQuan Jeffries 0.42

If we focus on on Fox, Buddy, and Barnes. And look only at their % greater than the average for Opponents Field Goals Made and Opponents FG %, we get the following:

Buddy = 1.86349 (the worse on the team), 80.2% worse than the team average.
Barnes = 1.828143, 76.8% worse than the team average.
Fox = 1.66314, 60.9% worse than the team average.
Do you know how to see what true shooting percentages they give up individually? I'd like to be able to see what they give up vs. what they get themselves and see who is and isn't holding their weight.
 
#54
I agree which is why I keep looking at McDaniels in the draft.
I watch Huskies basketball pretty often. The guy you want is Stewart. If we are talking about Jaden McDaniels, he is a total punk. He has had tech fouls called on him while sitting on the bench. I know plenty of women that play a lot tougher than he does. He is emotionally equivalent to a junior high school kid.
 
#56
do you want to post some data behind that assertion? Here is the data. Notice Fox is almost as bad. We aren’t multiple games under .500 just because of Buddy.

https://stats.nba.com/players/opponent-shooting/?sort=10-14 ft. FG PCT&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&PlayerPosition=G&StarterBench=Starters
Noticed an anomaly right away.

Dennis Smith jr.

Opponents shooting 66.7% from 25-29 feet, and on 10 of 15 attempts per game
Opponents shooting 0% from 20-24 feet, on 0 for 5 attempts per game.

Not sure how much meaning this has.