Digging deeper into Kings defense (split)

#1
I think some people are under estimating how bad his (Buddy's) defense has been. I’m pretty sure he has the highest FG% against of any guard in the league. He also loses his man blatantly 2-4 times a game.
 
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#2
I think some people are under estimating how bad his defense has been. I’m pretty sure he has the highest FG% against of any guard in the league. He also loses his man blatantly 2-4 times a game.
Pretty close on the FG%, some notable names that are worse are D Russell and Derozan. I'm curious if there's a metric that accounts for fouls/FTs though
 
#3
#4
#5
Quite frankly if you are going to be pissed off at anyone be pissed off at Fox. Buddy may be only a C- but in reality I think at best Buddy may ever be is a C+ or a B-. You can’t ask for something God didn’t put in. Fox on the other hand is also for the season around a C while in reality the best he may ever be is an A or A+.
 

Capt. Factorial

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Staff member
#6
here is the Kings team as a whole. Notice Fox isn’t much better or is worse than Buddy but somehow people only harp on Buddy.

https://stats.nba.com/players/opponent-shooting/?sort=20-24 ft. FG PCT&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612758
A bit of a caution on those stats: I have to assume (hope?) that the percentages reported are correct, but the raw numbers, which purport to be shots per game, are clearly not shots per game. If you add up just the shots within 5 feet, these stats would have us as a team giving up about 180 shots at the rim per game (not to mention however many shots it would be away from the rim) which is obviously wrong. Does kind of make you wonder whether the percentage calculations might be messed up too.
 
#7
A bit of a caution on those stats: I have to assume (hope?) that the percentages reported are correct, but the raw numbers, which purport to be shots per game, are clearly not shots per game. If you add up just the shots within 5 feet, these stats would have us as a team giving up about 180 shots at the rim per game (not to mention however many shots it would be away from the rim) which is obviously wrong. Does kind of make you wonder whether the percentage calculations might be messed up too.
yeah good point.
 
#8
A bit of a caution on those stats: I have to assume (hope?) that the percentages reported are correct, but the raw numbers, which purport to be shots per game, are clearly not shots per game. If you add up just the shots within 5 feet, these stats would have us as a team giving up about 180 shots at the rim per game (not to mention however many shots it would be away from the rim) which is obviously wrong. Does kind of make you wonder whether the percentage calculations might be messed up too.
They seem to define it as an attempt/make that the player defended. So I'm wondering if say 3 guys are around a player would that count as one shot for each of them? Or maybe they count it as long as the player was on the floor..
 

Capt. Factorial

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Staff member
#9
They seem to define it as an attempt/make that the player defended. So I'm wondering if say 3 guys are around a player would that count as one shot for each of them? Or maybe they count it as long as the player was on the floor..
Well, if it's just shots when the player is on the floor, then it's close to useless as a stat when it claims to be individual shot defense. And even then, that would suggest 36 shots per game against us inside of 5 feet, which seems pretty high as well. Many games the total shots by a team is 90 and under. I suppose that is on the high end of what I would estimate. The total shots looks on a quick estimate to be in the 520 range "per game", divide by 5 and you're looking at 104 shots per game, which is definitely high. We allow 85 shot attempts per game.
 
#10
Well, if it's just shots when the player is on the floor, then it's close to useless as a stat when it claims to be individual shot defense. And even then, that would suggest 36 shots per game against us inside of 5 feet, which seems pretty high as well. Many games the total shots by a team is 90 and under. I suppose that is on the high end of what I would estimate. The total shots looks on a quick estimate to be in the 520 range "per game", divide by 5 and you're looking at 104 shots per game, which is definitely high. We allow 85 shot attempts per game.
I’ll do a deeper dive into the stats later today, but there are a few issues from just a cursory glance:

1. You’ve pointed out the most obvious. And they don’t seem to relay what’s being normalized.
2. You would expect bigs to have a greater number shots attempted against within 5 feet than guards. That is not the case here. So the stats are not necessarily telling us what we’re hoping to discover.

That said, even with the above issues, it’s pretty obvious Buddy is the team’s worse defender. He leads in most of the categories for attempts against. By how much n the exact magnitude are things that we may be able to figure out if we cross the data against each other and are able to find the league average n then calculate his deviation from the average.

Magnitude matters here because we’re dealing with small units where 2 or so shot attempts separates an average defender from a horrible defender.
 
#11
I’ll do a deeper dive into the stats later today, but there are a few issues from just a cursory glance:

1. You’ve pointed out the most obvious. And they don’t seem to relay what’s being normalized.
2. You would expect bigs to have a greater number shots attempted against within 5 feet than guards. That is not the case here. So the stats are not necessarily telling us what we’re hoping to discover.

That said, even with the above issues, it’s pretty obvious Buddy is the team’s worse defender. He leads in most of the categories for attempts against. By how much n the exact magnitude are things that we may be able to figure out if we cross the data against each other and are able to find the league average n then calculate his deviation from the average.

Magnitude matters here because we’re dealing with small units where 2 or so shot attempts separates an average defender from a horrible defender.
Worse than Giles? Also I'm not sure "teams worst defender" in itself says anything. Every team has a worst defender. He's also the teams best scorer. Your point about league average is a stronger argument, but again, I don't think anyone is questioning that Buddy isnt a good defender. The question is does his defense cost the team more than his offense helps.
 
#12
I’ll do a deeper dive into the stats later today, but there are a few issues from just a cursory glance:

1. You’ve pointed out the most obvious. And they don’t seem to relay what’s being normalized.
2. You would expect bigs to have a greater number shots attempted against within 5 feet than guards. That is not the case here. So the stats are not necessarily telling us what we’re hoping to discover.

That said, even with the above issues, it’s pretty obvious Buddy is the team’s worse defender. He leads in most of the categories for attempts against. By how much n the exact magnitude are things that we may be able to figure out if we cross the data against each other and are able to find the league average n then calculate his deviation from the average.

Magnitude matters here because we’re dealing with small units where 2 or so shot attempts separates an average defender from a horrible defender.
Here's an average of the opponents made shots and the opponents FG%. Ranked by FG% and value > from team FG%. One obvious glaring issue here is it implies Cory Joseph is a worse defender than Buddy, which is absolutely not true.

Players FGM FG% % > FGM %
Wenyen Gabriel 0.871.60 0.540 29.9%
Nemanja Bjelica 3.687.73 0.444 6.8%
Cory Joseph 3.557.48 0.443 6.7%
Buddy Hield 4.7810.03 0.440 5.95%
Dewayne Dedmon 1.823.95 0.439 5.63%
Richaun Holmes 4.058.67 0.432 4.1%
De'Aaron Fox 4.379.22 0.430 3.58%
Harrison Barnes 4.8210.35 0.429 3.22%
Marvin Bagley III 3.477.30 0.424 2.02%
Yogi Ferrell 1.753.88 0.423
Bogdan Bogdanovic 3.627.93 0.422 1.6%
Harry Giles III 1.373.00 0.417
Trevor Ariza 3.086.77 0.417 3.3%
Justin James 1.423.18 0.404
Caleb Swanigan 0.471.10 0.383
DaQuan Jeffries 0.421.58 0.158

Here's a Rank by FGM and % from team's FGM avg. Barnes and Buddy seems to be our worse defenders
Players FGM Value > FGM Avg
Harrison Barnes 4.82 77.1%
Buddy Hield 4.78 75.87%
De'Aaron Fox 4.37 60.5%
Richaun Holmes 4.05 48.9%
Nemanja Bjelica 3.68 35.43%
Bogdan Bogdanovic 3.62 32.98%
Cory Joseph 3.55 30.52%
Marvin Bagley III 3.47 27.46%
Trevor Ariza 3.08 13.37%
Dewayne Dedmon 1.82
Yogi Ferrell 1.75
Justin James 1.42
Harry Giles III 1.37
Wenyen Gabriel 0.87
Caleb Swanigan 0.47
DaQuan Jeffries 0.42

If we focus on on Fox, Buddy, and Barnes. And look only at their % greater than the average for Opponents Field Goals Made and Opponents FG %, we get the following:

Buddy = 1.86349 (the worse on the team), 80.2% worse than the team average.
Barnes = 1.828143, 76.8% worse than the team average.
Fox = 1.66314, 60.9% worse than the team average.
 
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#13
Sorry. The formatting sucks. Wish I could just cut and paste Excel calcs here.

Anyway, I think the data doesn't really answer what we're hoping it does. But even with faulty data, the info that is available to us backs up the eye test: Buddy is the worse defender on the team. How much worse relative to Fox? 20% or so.
 
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#14
Worse than Giles? Also I'm not sure "teams worst defender" in itself says anything. Every team has a worst defender. He's also the teams best scorer. Your point about league average is a stronger argument, but again, I don't think anyone is questioning that Buddy isnt a good defender. The question is does his defense cost the team more than his offense helps.
Asking that very question validates why he deserves to be a 6 man or traded.
 
#15
I’ll do a deeper dive into the stats later today, but there are a few issues from just a cursory glance:

1. You’ve pointed out the most obvious. And they don’t seem to relay what’s being normalized.
2. You would expect bigs to have a greater number shots attempted against within 5 feet than guards. That is not the case here. So the stats are not necessarily telling us what we’re hoping to discover.

That said, even with the above issues, it’s pretty obvious Buddy is the team’s worse defender. He leads in most of the categories for attempts against. By how much n the exact magnitude are things that we may be able to figure out if we cross the data against each other and are able to find the league average n then calculate his deviation from the average.

Magnitude matters here because we’re dealing with small units where 2 or so shot attempts separates an average defender from a horrible defender.
im not sure attempts against us the critical data point. I think the percentage makes is what matters. If you force the opponent into a bad shot that is a good as forcing a turnover.
 
#16
im not sure attempts against us the critical data point. I think the percentage makes is what matters. If you force the opponent into a bad shot that is a good as forcing a turnover.
FG% = FGM/FGA., so FGM and FGA is already baked into FG%. If we look at FGA x FG%, it tells the volume and the success per try. If we look at FGM x FG% it tells us the absolute value against the and the opponents rate of success.

It's not a perfect way to assess the data at hand. And I really don't have the bandwidth today to gather other data to see if we can fine tune it (likely; certain of it). But the data at hand says what it says, which is what we already knew: Buddy is our worse defender. Add the turnovers, black hole tendencies, and mindless chucking and we're here questioning whether he should be a 6 man, provides net value, or should be traded.
 
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#17
There is so much more that goes with the raw numbers in data. Barnes guards Many of the best players. We know Ariza and Joseph will be put on the best scorers on the other team. I personally think Bjelica is not a good defender in certain matchups....quickness factor being a point, but I’ve also seen him be rock solid against players who are more in his mold. Data in the case of defense has got to be looked at as a source of information and not the gospel accord8ng to numbers.
 
#18
Sorry. The formatting sucks. Wish I could just cut and paste Excel calcs here.

Anyway, I think the data doesn't really answer what we're hoping it does. But even with faulty data, the info that is available to us backs up the eye test: Buddy is the worse defender on the team. How much worse relative to Fox? 20% or so.
here is a link with Defensive win shares which shows Buddy is an average defender on this team.

https://stats.nba.com/players/defen...0&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612758

your bias is extreme and isn’t remotely backed up by the data. Even on your supposed eye test, as long as Marvin is on the team Buddy isn’t close to the worst defender.
 
#19
FG% = FGM/FGA., so FGM and FGA is already baked into FG%. If we look at FGA x FG%, it tells the volume and the success per try. If we look at FGM x FG% it tells us the absolute value against the and the opponents rate of success.

It's not a perfect way to assess the data at hand. And I really don't have the bandwidth today to gather other data to see if we can fine tune it (likely; certain of it). But the data at hand says what it says, which is what we already knew: Buddy is our worse defender. Add the turnovers, black hole tendencies, and mindless chucking and we're here questioning whether he should be a 6 man, provides net value, or should be traded.
FGA x FGM/FGA = FGM Your basing your conclusion in FGM which for a player guarding 2 guards which normally take the most shots is an erroneous metric as someone like Booker may jack up tons of shots at a low percentage.

NBA.com has a stats page. One of those pages shows the delta of a players FG% when guarded by player A versus the average. I haven’t found it yet but that data would be more relevant to the point you are trying to make.

that being said, Buddy is not close to being the worst defender on the team.
 
#20
here is a link with Defensive win shares which shows Buddy is an average defender on this team.

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense/?sort=DEF_WS&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612758

your bias is extreme and isn’t remotely backed up by the data. Even on your supposed eye test, as long as Marvin is on the team Buddy isn’t close to the worst defender.
Take the opponents points off of turnovers - Def Win Shares and what do we get? Stats are fun.
 
#21
FGA x FGM/FGA = FGM Your basing your conclusion in FGM which for a player guarding 2 guards which normally take the most shots is an erroneous metric as someone like Booker may jack up tons of shots at a low percentage.
First, you supplied the data.
Second, the analysis is going off the data that you've supplied.
Third, I've acknowledged the limitations and the need for more data.

So what's your point?
 
#22
First, you supplied the data.
Second, the analysis is going off the data that you've supplied.
Third, I've acknowledged the limitations and the need for more data.

So what's your point?
the point is you an manipulating the data in a way that makes it less meaningful not more. Multiplying a number by a factor included in that number, which you have done twice now, does not give you a more meaningful statistic.
 
#23
NBA.com has a stats page. One of those pages shows the delta of a players FG% when guarded by player A versus the average. I haven’t found it yet but that data would be more relevant to the point you are trying to make.

.
Find it and let's see where this goes.
 
#25
the point is you an manipulating the data in a way that makes it less meaningful not more. Multiplying a number by a factor included in that number, which you have done twice now, does not give you a more meaningful statistic.
Each category is a % relative to the average. Then they're multiplied. And then evaluated relative to the average for the new category. That shows magnitude, which the raw stats are not showing. Do you see a team average for FGM, FGA, FG%? Is there a category for how these data points cross and their deviation from the average? Nope.

Buddy is our worse defender for the stats at hand.
 
#28
There is a major flaw in those advanced stats. Human error. Someone has to watch and determine what is a shot who was guarding who etc. Get one mixed up or not being consistent between people watching makes them useless.
 
#29
There is a major flaw in those advanced stats. Human error. Someone has to watch and determine what is a shot who was guarding who etc. Get one mixed up or not being consistent between people watching makes them useless.
they use film and tracking data on the film. It’s not done by humans.