Detroit v. San Antonio -- Why We Have Hope

[Bricklayer]

Watching the second half of this Detroit v. San Antonio game has reminded me again why even a team as flawed as ours is this year has hope thast it could still pull off a champilnship.

The Pistons have been mediocre all season long -- they look listless. Suffering that post-championship letdown bigtime, and the sentiment and lack of passion seems shared by their coach.

The Spurs remain perhaps the shakiest elite team in the league in late game situations. And this has gone on for years. If you make a charge at the Spurs int he 4th quarter, as often as not they begin to fold. They're still good enoguh that thye are going to win most of those games, but the door is always open.

Nobody's scary this year. Nobody's unbeatable.

 

[Gargamel]

Problem is the Spurs aren't going to have 4 tight pressured endings in a series and a lot of beef in the paint is necessary to beat them consistently.

 

[Bricklayer]

Problem is the Spurs aren't going to have 4 tight pressured endings in a series and a lot of beef in the paint is necessary to beat them consistently.

It only takes 1 or 2 to turn a 7 game series, unless you think we would get swept, which our history does not suggest at all.

As long as you belong on the same court with the other team, if you can squeeze them and see them get tight, you've got your shot. Really, the lakers took advantage of that trait last year -- San Antonio was the better team, was on the big roll, but you squeeze them, and they go away. The year before they almost did the same thing against Dallas of all teams.

San Antonio may well be the odds on favorite to win the championship, but they aren't scary championship-mentality tough. Some teams have a supernatural ability to raise their game and close you out -- scary stuff. Spurs don't, and really never have.

 

[Nikos]

It only takes 1 or 2 to turn a 7 game series, unless you think we would get swept, which our history does not suggest at all.

As long as you belong on the same court with the other team, if you can squeeze them and see them get tight, you've got your shot. Really, the lakers took advantage of that trait last year -- San Antonio was the better team, was on the big roll, but you squeeze them, and they go away. The year before they almost did the same thing against Dallas of all teams.

San Antonio may well be the odds on favorite to win the championship, but they aren't scary championship-mentality tough. Some teams have a supernatural ability to raise their game and close you out -- scary stuff. Spurs don't, and really never have.

Wouldn't you need an MJ for that killer instinct? Shaq and Kobe had a bunch of clutch shooters around them as well were not always a great team (their best run was in 00-01, but competition was pretty weak then IMO).

They run the same halfcourt play to Duncan every time down and as a result turn it over. It never works, and you know its coming. Force it down to Duncan when doubled, then Duncan turns it over or takes a shaky shot.

Maybe they just don't have a Kobe or an MJ or a unstoppable guard who is clutch -- but maybe its more their lack of superstar talent that keeps them from being 'dominant'?

 

[Bricklayer]

Wouldn't you need an MJ for that killer instinct? Shaq and Kobe had a bunch of clutch shooters around them as well were not always a great team (their best run was in 00-01, but competition was pretty weak then IMO).

They run the same halfcourt play to Duncan every time down and as a result turn it over. It never works, and you know its coming. Force it down to Duncan when doubled, then Duncan turns it over or takes a shaky shot.

Maybe they just don't have a Kobe or an MJ or a unstoppable guard who is clutch -- but maybe its more their lack of superstar talent that keeps them from being 'dominant'?

Could be -- having that one great unstoppable force does wonders for a team's confidence down the stretch. You always know how + where to turn when things get tight.

But in any case, I wasn't really trying to assess blame for WHY its true. Just making an observation that it IS true and it keeps the door open for a team like the Kings. Spurs are built better for a title, but they can be had by a talented expereienced opponent because if you step up and punch them in the nose, their response isn't always to come roaring back and step on your throat.

 

[Nikos]

Spurs are built better for a title, but they can be had by a talented expereienced opponent because if you step up and punch them in the nose, their response isn't always to come roaring back and step on your throat.

Probably so. But I wouldn't exactly say they are so mentally weak that its the only reason keeping them from being dominant. Some of it has to do with not having overwhelming talent surrounding Duncan and also the fact that he also is not always the best clutch option when hes being force fed predictably.

They have a great defense, and their offense looks better this season then last. But with their poor FT shooting, predicability at times down the stretch force feeding Duncan (who isn't the best cluitch FT shooter as it is) makes them beatable.

I think its a combination of predictability down the stretch at times, and not having an MJ or a Shaq/Kobe at their disposal.

Is it more the fact that Duncan is shaky from the line, or does Duncan not have enough horses? Tough to say. But either way they are not unstoppable obviously.

 

[Evenstar]

the spurs were not impressive at ALL in the 4th tonight, no doubt about it.

they are vunerable with free throw shooting late in games. duncan isn't great, bowen is doing better, but he has a bad career FT% rasho is worse then shaq this year. ( 33% man that is BAD!!!!) that could be a factor in tight games for sure.

i still think the spurs win the title, but you are 100% correct brick, a team as flawed as the kings do have a chance if they were to face the spurs in the playoffs. i'd sure love to see the kings win that ring this year ( and every year for that matter )

 

[quick dog]

Webber may be the next MVP, and the Kings may be the next NBA champions. I think they are good enough right now. They seem to be getting better all the time. Injuries will tell the tale.

 

[sloter]

Nobody's scary this year. Nobody's unbeatable.

It depends on who you are... and you can beat them, but can you beat them 4 out of 7?

 

[LPKingsFan]

Let's say with the Spurs and the Kings, you'd assume as close as they are but considering the Spurs regarded higher status, that the Spurs should win 4 and the Kings should win 3.

However, as we all learned in 2002, the team who should win doesn't always do so, and like Brick said, one or two suprise games (like the Horry shot--Lakers weren't supposed to win that game) and you've turned around and won the series.

 

[Gargamel]

Shaq and Kobe had a bunch of clutch shooters around them as well were not always a great team (their best run was in 00-01, but competition was pretty weak then IMO).

The competition weren't creampuffs. That's hindsight logic.

Maybe they just don't have a Kobe or an MJ or a unstoppable guard who is clutch -- but maybe its more their lack of superstar talent that keeps them from being 'dominant'?

Well, MJs and Kobes don't grow on trees. They have a Duncan and that's been good for 2 championships. The only things that kept them from not winning 5 titles were Shaq and Kobe. Without that to worry about, no one has proven that they can take them out in 7 games. Their defense is too good for that to happen against teams that don't have beef in the paint who intimidate Timmy. And when you've managed to contain Timmy in a game, it's uncanny how Parker or Manu pull out a career performance to keep the game winnable.

 

[Bricklayer]

The competition weren't creampuffs. That's hindsight logic.


Well, MJs and Kobes don't grow on trees. They have a Duncan and that's been good for 2 championships. The only things that kept them from not winning 5 titles were Shaq and Kobe. Without that to worry about, no one has proven that they can take them out in 7 games. Their defense is too good for that to happen against teams that don't have beef in the paint who intimidate Timmy. And when you've managed to contain Timmy in a game, it's uncanny how Parker or Manu pull out a career performance to keep the game winnable.

Ahem. They would not have beaten us in '02 at the very least.

We've never had the chance to play that team in the playoffs, and unfortunately at this point if we do we might be beyond our prime. But the regular seasons between the teams have never done anything to dispel the notion that there would have been some great series in there, had injuries and that pesky squad of squabbling ninnies from L.A. not kept on interfering.

 

[striker]

T Wolves with Eddie Griffin added are a definite threat to the Spurs. Suns and their style of play have always given Spurs teams and their scheme problems. Even the Sonics could hurt the Spurs if they had a hot shooting series which they are fully capable of. I don't think the Kings match up well against the Spurs though.

One important piece for the Spurs that hasn't shown up so far is Brent Barry. If and when he gets his game together that should help squash opposition 4th quarter rallies.

 

[Variant]

I need to watch some Spurs games... as much as they bore me. I still fear that they excel exactly in the areas where we are weakest--rebounding & hustle (not so much on the hustle dept). They've also acquired Brent Barry who seems to love playing against us.

However, who knows in the playoffs. Anything can happen. For some reason I actually would feel more confident about a Kings/Spurs matchup than a Kings/Minnesota matchup.

This all depends on how injuries play out, and of course how CWebb is doing by the end of the year...

 

[AriesMar27]

we might not even meet the spurs or wolves in the playoffs this year, especially with the way that phoenix and seattle have been playing. if seattle wins the nw and the kings get the pc, minny would end up playing phoenix or dallas in the first round. same goes for the spurs if they get the 6th seed and end up playing dallas, minny or phoenix in the first round.

phoenix doesnt scare me because we all know that nash runs out of gas by the time that the playoffs start. but he is still pretty good and his team can score without him. if we can win the pc division and get atleast 2nd seed we're set, the west is too stacked to not wear down the spurs or twolves in the first round.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

we might not even meet the spurs or wolves in the playoffs this year, especially with the way that phoenix and seattle have been playing. if seattle wins the nw and the kings get the pc, minny would end up playing phoenix or dallas in the first round. same goes for the spurs if they get the 6th seed and end up playing dallas, minny or phoenix in the first round.

Why would San Antonio slip all the way to the sixth seed?

 

[quick dog]

I don't think the Kings are past their prime. Teams in their prime don't miss an endless series of free-throws or argue with referees all night long. I think the Kings are far more mature, and I think more consistent and reliable. These guys know how to win. By the end of the season, Barnes, Ostertag, Songaila, and maybe some other new players will be firmly in the Kings loop. Mark my words, as the Kings win more games and gain more donfidence, the team chemistry will be incredible. It is inevitable given the nature of the coaches and players.

I think the biggest improvement in the Kings is Chris Webber. His head is on straight. He is doing just what he said he would do at the close of last year. I really thought he was blowing smoke. Peja's contribution will grow as the season progresses because he will be swept up in the draft of this passing train.

If I were the Spurs, Phoenix, or Seattle, I would keep one eye open waiting for the Midnight Flyer. The Kings will be rolling like a 4-8-4 steam train across the prairie by the end of the season. Only critical injuries can prevent this result. You heard it here.

 

[AriesMar27]

Why would San Antonio slip all the way to the sixth seed?

i meant to say that with seattle and phoenix winning their divisions, the spurs would end up 3rd, playing dallas as the 6th seed..... my bad.

 

[quick dog]

i meant to say that with seattle and phoenix winning their divisions, the spurs would end up 3rd, playing dallas as the 6th seed..... my bad.

I don't think Phoenix will win their Division.

 

[AriesMar27]

they have a good chance to win it, i dont want them to either but it could just as well happen.

 

[TheSerbianQueen]

San Antonio may well be the odds on favorite to win the championship, but they aren't scary championship-mentality tough. Some teams have a supernatural ability to raise their game and close you out -- scary stuff. Spurs don't, and really never have.

I totally agree with you Brick. And seems that Detroit certainly isn't on their way to the championship repeat. In a way, it could still be early to judge, but I seem to think that this year we have a very wide open race for the championship.

Which could really work for KINGS

 

[Gargamel]

I've wanted to see a Kings/Spurs series for a few years, but it seems like they're on the same poles of a pair of magnets. I personally think the Spurs are built for the playoffs and are quite a tough team to beat for various reasons (Duncan, refs, slow pounding pace, experience, defense). LA was built right to beat them -- most dominant center paired with the best penetrating guard in the league surrounded by role players who normally stepped up from the arc while SA's role players shriveled. Of course, there were exceptions (1999 and 2003), but those were both weakened LA squads. For Sac to have a shot at beating SA, there is no question whatsoever that all the guards and Peja (who'll be guarded by Bowen) have to be burning hot from the perimeter to keep the defense spread. That's paramount. The strategy of doubling Duncan amap has already been discussed, but it's easier said than done...unless you have Shaq and Malone clones Petrie is keeping secret.

 

[KA_2]

Yup Garg, it basically comes down to the Kings inability to have any affect whatsoever on Duncan. In past seasons the Lakers were able to beat the Spurs for several reasons. The first one being Shaq, who would at worst at least challenge Duncan in some form or another, even if he didn't guard him directly. He also keep Duncan from eating the glass entirely. Last season, Malone outmuscled Duncan from his favorite spots on the floor, and made him operate higher on the floor where the Lakers smartly positioned a good defensive guard/swingman (Kobe, George, Payton) to come over and trap him. Lasty, despite the fact that the Lakers didn't have a good defensive PG all those years, they were still able to play solid collapse defense. Originally it was Shaq and Horry collapsing the lane, at the time both were very long and disruptive defenders on help D. They were able to hold penetrators like Manu and Parker at bay and force them into tough shots or bad decisions. The Lakers failed in 2003 because Horry and Shaq were getting old, and Shaq was especially overweight and slower than ever before. Last season Shaq was lighter and Malone came in and did the same thing Shaq and Horry were able to do, except better; collapse on penetrators and force them into bad decisions. And then there's Kobe, a perimeter force the Kings just don't have.

Miller and Webber simply aren't able to play that type of defense, period. And since Bibby can't guard Parker a wink, he'll be getting into the lane and causing all types of havoc, as will Manu (I don't know if Christie can keep up with Manu anymore, let alone Parker). As Garg said, the Kings will have to shoot lights out (or at least not let their outside shooting be significantly disrupted) to beat the Spurs.

So really, while there's "hope" for the Kings, it's merely hope at this point. The Spurs would have to suffer a major collapse or injuries for the Kings to have a shot at the title. The Twolves are beatable, but even with Spree and Cassell unhappy and older than last season, they did add Eddie Griffin, who has been having a very good season as a backup big man, and he'll make it even tougher for the Kings to get baskets and boards in the lane.

EDIT: That's 2003, not 2002.

 

[HndsmCelt]

Yawn...

 

[Kingsgurl]

So really, while there's "hope" for the Kings, it's merely hope at this point.

It's freaking DECEMBER, all anyone in the NBA has, at this point, is hope.

 

[Bricklayer]

Its all just talk at this point.


The history of the matchup has been that Duncan goes off and Parker goes off for the Spurs, that Webb goes off for the Kings but does not slow down Duncan, that Peja struggles against Bowen, and that Bobby Jackson frequently comes in and creates major problems for the Spurs. Its also been that the games are more frequently played at the Kings pace than the Spurs pace, and that the teams normally split the season series with an ocassional 1-3 or 3-1, often depending on the relative health of the two teams when they meet. A positional analysis reveals a virtual draw, with perhaps a slight edge to the Kings.

If you think that we are some sort of easy matchup for the Spurs, you just haven't been paying attention (not that they are an easy matchup for us either). Our outside shooting big men make the Spurs shotblocking much less improtant, and the Bibby/Bobby (especially Bobby) combo causes a lot of problems for Parker on the other side of the court. If Peja ever figured out Bowen, the edge might tilt decidedly towards us.

In any case, most likely key players in that series, other than the obvious ones, could well end up being Ginobilli, who's energy and activity causes us problems, Bobby who causes similar problems for the Spurs, and Tag -- is he capable of slowing down Duncan at all during critical moments?

 

[Gargamel]

Yawn...

Rolleyes.

 

[Gargamel]

If you guys had $1000 riding on the winner between SA and Sac, who would you bet on?

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Sacramento.

And sooner or later, you guys are going to learn to stop asking me this damned question.

 

[Bricklayer]

If you guys had $1000 riding on the winner between SA and Sac, who would you bet on?

Spurs. But that's not the question. Not a question of who the favorite is. Question is do the Kings have a chance, and the answer is absolutely yes. The result of the series is far from a given, and the Kings pulling it off would only shock you if you haven't been paying attention -- Kings beat the Spurs as often as they beat us, and pose all sorts of problems for them just as they pose them for us. Spurs have never been a particular nemesis of the Kings. Just another elite team constucted in a polar opposite fashion.