Blow It Up

Nobody is going to argue that having a higher draft pick is worse than a lower one. But I think some (not saying you, your draft post just was convenient for this thought) also overvalue them to the point of absurdity.

Because for every Toronto example where they may have done well, you could also end up with a Pervis Ellison, or Greg Oden, or Marco Milicic, or Hasheem Thabeet, or Len Bias, etc. Or you fall in the draft lottery outside the range of the best players. Or in Kings land, maybe you get Stauskas, Justin James, Trob, Quincy Douby, or Dickau.

And you've traded away your best players in order for the "honor" to do so.

We've been in the lottery for 15 years and it's netted us pretty much a grand total of Fox, Bagley, Hali, Davion, and Hield (via trade) and a record of 17-27 this year so far. Out of the last 15 years in the lottery. The Spurs seemed to do just fine for decades with no lottery picks - it's not the end-all be-all of NBA talent acquisition.

I'd rather (judiciously) trade the draft capital for known talent than keep taking swings at unknowns. But let's not get crazy and go attaching several FRP to trade Fox for a Simmons. That's overpaying by a long shot (IMHO). We need a careful balance; I think some just start going all crazy slinging assets around.
It’s interesting that the same posters that claim Monte is a better GM also post about all the draft busts. Seems logically inconsistent to me. If Monte is such a great drafter give him a top 3 pick and let’s see how he does.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
While I don’t disagree with your conclusion regarding idiocy, I don’t know if this Reddish situation or the lack a move yet are actual examples of it. We simply don’t have enough insight into what discussions have/are going on at this point. Maybe we offered Bagley and/or Buddy and ATL hung up…maybe we’re looking to make a much larger move first and need specific assets in place to make it work…who knows.

I’m sure there are plenty of concrete examples of front office failures to pull from…no need for conjecture.
You are absolutely right. We really don't "know." Hard for me to give any benefit of the doubt at this point, given all that has gone on. We will know at the trade deadline whether this organization has a clue or is as imbecilic as they appear to be. They must move Bagley and Buddy for a bag of chips or better at the trade deadline. Addition by subtraction.
 
A lot of the presenters they showed in the video were split between Stauskas and Elfrid Payton. Regardless I think it's obviously inaccurate to say that fans were never involved when they were invited to present to the whole front office and the team produced a video and a PR campaign promoting Draft 3.0 and how they were going to beat the odds with crowdsourcing and statistical analysis.
That's PR.
 
He was considered a bit of a sleeper but he had his supporters. Including, I believe, @bajaden. I remember really liking Elfrid Payton that year and he's basically been a journeyman backup PG most of his career. Zach Lavine would have been the better pick in retrospect but he looked pretty terrible at UCLA -- just a gunner with bad shot selection and little interest in playing defense. Credit to him for working hard and improving his game. And Nikola Jokic would have been the HR pick of course but he wasn't anywhere on my radar.
I wasn't on KF.com then, but would've been big on Lavine. Alfraud and Lavine had a falling out midway through his Freshman season. Lavine told Alfraud that he was leaving for the NBA, so Steve played Bryce ahead of him at the 1 spot. Bryce is the son, obviously. Lavine pretty much mailed it in at that point.

Speaking of the Bruins, this Vlade core reminds me a lot of the Bruins under Alfraud. All offense, fools gold talent, never won sh*t. There was one season where the Bruins played the KAT, WCS, Booker Kentucky team and ended up scoring like 10 points in the 1H. LOLZZ.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
I guess I’d be up in my feelings about the Monte interview too if it wasn’t for the fact that none of it surprises me in the least.

This is still Vivek’s team, and the guy has shown zero capacity to learn from the mistakes he’s made again and again and again as owner.

That being said, I’ll still be somewhat mollified if Buddy the dummy and Harrison “Black Falcon but only one out of five games” Barnes get shipped out.

If you squint, you can see this team maybe making the playoffs as first round fodder if we ever get competent coaching, no way we’ll ever have a higher ceiling than that with Vivek as owner though.

Ah the joys of being a Kings fan.
 
Are we sure they didn't just copy and paste that article from last year?
Possible. Monte said something to the effect that timing matters in his interview with CD. I don't think dude should be saying that since he has missed the window a number of times: Bogi to Atl and Fox for Simmons and likely a first over the Summer. Giving him a pass on Bogi to Mil and Hield to LAL.
 
I'm pretty sure a lot of us liked Vonleh and thought of him as a solid complement to Cousins long term with his shooting potential, rim protection/defensive potential, potential to guard 4s/5s, athleticism, & size/length (6'8" w/o shoes, 7'4.25" wingspan, 9'0" standing reach, & 247 lbs).

Since we had Collison and McLemore, I think a lot of us were shying away from Payton and Stauskas in favor of the "better fit" on paper (Vonleh). I don't really remember anyone outside of those 3 being discussed at where we were picking.

PG - Collison / Sessions / McCallum
SG - McLemore
SF - Gay / Casspi / D. Williams
PF - Vonleh / Landry / Evans
C - Cousins / Thompson / Moreland
A few years ago, my wife and I shared an elevator with Vonleh at the Sawyer. He was wearing his Blazers gear, but we didn't know who he was until later (when we Googled the roster). REALLY NICE dude.
 
Fox, Buddy, Barnes, Bagley for Simmons, Harris. Filler on both sides. Let's go.

https://www.libertyballers.com/2022...ngs-tyrese-haliburton-deaaron-fox-buddy-hield

Mark Stein:

“More than one rival team believes Sacramento, in its desire for a significant shakeup as it bumbles toward a record 16th consecutive season out of the playoffs, could be convinced to take on Tobias Harris’ contract to facilitate a Simmons deal. If the Sixers can’t get the top-flight player they covet, going ahead with a Simmons deal that enables them to shed the two years and nearly $80 million left on Harris’ contract after this season might be too enticing to resist rather than holding out for a star in return.”
 

Warhawk

The cake is a lie.
Staff member
There is data available on the importance of draft position. I dont care about how many examples one could come up with. Its still much more likely to draft an all star top 3 compared to 7-12th. Its just the data, it isnt my fault and its not about opininion. Its numbers and the data is extremely clear on this.

I value top level talent. Its objectively the most important thing that gets your franchise to be actually competitive. I think majority of us can agree with the fact that if this team wants to actually compete it needs a player that is a top level player in this team. How competitive we are depends on how good the addition is. I would never want to place my bet on my team becoming good to getting lucky in the draft at the 9th spot.



We dont even need to do that if we want to do what the Raptors did. You yourself obviously understand that every single raptors fan and organisation member are extremely happy that they didnt follow the same strategy as Kings. They are a smart organisation. They won the championship, one year the noticed they werent going to compete and acknowledging that they made sure they got as good talent in the draft as possible. Zero people can objectively claim that Kings are any better off because they won those two additional games. Zero. Its the exact same thing this year.



Being in the lottery isnt the goal. The goal is either being competitive or drafting top 5. The fact that we had one of the worst GM's ever doesnt change the fact that a top 3 pick at the time would've completely changed this franchise. That position came to us by pure luck but its a good example on why you want to put yourself in a position to draft as close to 1 as possible.

I dont know what to say about Spurs. After they lost their golden generation and Kawhi after that, they have been bad and without a clear direction. Of cource they have a hall of fame level coach but without talent it will never amount to anything significant.



What trades are out there that suddenly make us an actually competitive team. Fox for Simmons swap isnt probably it. Only realistic way for us is an addition to this core and most likely it comes via draft. In trade you have to give up too many pieces for an actuall difference maker, swapping Hield or Barnes for some other player dont move the needle at all and free agency is hard for us since we are capped out and one of the least favourable destinations amongst good players

If you add to this core an actuall difference maker, THEN make a trade with Fox or 1st round picks or whatever to add even more to that, then you can be competitive. Otherwise we keep going on this same track that is the worst possible track that an nba franchise can follow
You are (apparently) arguing a whole slew of points I didn't make or imply. I'll leave it at that.
 

Warhawk

The cake is a lie.
Staff member
It’s interesting that the same posters that claim Monte is a better GM also post about all the draft busts. Seems logically inconsistent to me. If Monte is such a great drafter give him a top 3 pick and let’s see how he does.
I don't think I've ever said one way or the other how I feel about Monte as a GM. All I'm saying is the draft is a bit of a crapshoot - higher picks tend to do better, but even high picks can fail miserably or, like Oden or Bias, it's not even skill/effort-based but outside stuff that derails them.
 
Fox, Buddy, Barnes, Bagley for Simmons, Harris. Filler on both sides. Let's go.

https://www.libertyballers.com/2022...ngs-tyrese-haliburton-deaaron-fox-buddy-hield

Mark Stein:

“More than one rival team believes Sacramento, in its desire for a significant shakeup as it bumbles toward a record 16th consecutive season out of the playoffs, could be convinced to take on Tobias Harris’ contract to facilitate a Simmons deal. If the Sixers can’t get the top-flight player they covet, going ahead with a Simmons deal that enables them to shed the two years and nearly $80 million left on Harris’ contract after this season might be too enticing to resist rather than holding out for a star in return.”
If I’m getting Simmons I want to keep Buddy and Barnes if I can.
 
Fox, Buddy, Barnes, Bagley for Simmons, Harris. Filler on both sides. Let's go.

https://www.libertyballers.com/2022...ngs-tyrese-haliburton-deaaron-fox-buddy-hield

Mark Stein:

“More than one rival team believes Sacramento, in its desire for a significant shakeup as it bumbles toward a record 16th consecutive season out of the playoffs, could be convinced to take on Tobias Harris’ contract to facilitate a Simmons deal. If the Sixers can’t get the top-flight player they covet, going ahead with a Simmons deal that enables them to shed the two years and nearly $80 million left on Harris’ contract after this season might be too enticing to resist rather than holding out for a star in return.”
that is way too much to give up. Top offer should be Fox, Barnes, TT for Harris and Simmons.
 
I don't think I've ever said one way or the other how I feel about Monte as a GM. All I'm saying is the draft is a bit of a crapshoot - higher picks tend to do better, but even high picks can fail miserably or, like Oden or Bias, it's not even skill/effort-based but outside stuff that derails them.
Certainly it can be but good GM’s rarely strick out with a top 3 pick. Top 5 maybe and Top 8 certainly.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
Ha! I wish. Someone strikes out on a top 3 pick almost every year.
Yep. Ask the Warriors how they feel about drafting Wiseman at 2nd overall, us with Bagley, the Sixers with Fultz, the Pels with Zion, the Sixers with Okafor, and so on and so forth. Pretty much every single year, at least one of the top three players in the draft is going to wind up a spectacular failure (be it through injuries or just plain sucking) and two or three dudes drafted in the mid-lotto through to the 20s are going to wind up randomly turning into a star (Giannis/Kawhi/Bam/maybe Tyrese?).

With all that said, I certainly wouldn't balk at a chance to draft one of the top three guys in this class even if there is a chance Chet poofs into a cloud of dust the second he experiences his first NBA foul or Paolo never really develops his jumper past this point or something.
 
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Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
Yep. Ask the Warriors how they feel about drafting Wiseman at 2nd overall, us with Bagley, the Sixers with Fultz, the Pels with Zion, the Sixers with Okafor, and so on and so forth. Pretty much every single year, at least one of the top three players in the draft is going to wind up a spectacular failure (be it through injuries or just plain sucking) and two or three dudes drafted in the mid-lotto through to the 20s is going to wind up randomly turning into a star.
In fact, if you go back from 2018 (too early to tell for more recent drafts) to 2000, there are only two drafts that didn't have at least one bust in the top 3: the 2005 draft (Bogut/Marvin Williams/Deron Williams...but still the best player in the draft CP3 was at #4), and the 2016 draft (Simmons/Ingram/Jaylen Brown).

Even the best draft ever (2003) had a bust at #2 in Darko.
 
In fact, if you go back from 2018 (too early to tell for more recent drafts) to 2000, there are only two drafts that didn't have at least one bust in the top 3: the 2005 draft (Bogut/Marvin Williams/Deron Williams...but still the best player in the draft CP3 was at #4), and the 2016 draft (Simmons/Ingram/Jaylen Brown).

Even the best draft ever (2003) had a bust at #2 in Darko.
Might want to look at that 1984 draft.
 
Fox, Buddy, Barnes, Bagley for Simmons, Harris. Filler on both sides. Let's go.

https://www.libertyballers.com/2022...ngs-tyrese-haliburton-deaaron-fox-buddy-hield

Mark Stein:

“More than one rival team believes Sacramento, in its desire for a significant shakeup as it bumbles toward a record 16th consecutive season out of the playoffs, could be convinced to take on Tobias Harris’ contract to facilitate a Simmons deal. If the Sixers can’t get the top-flight player they covet, going ahead with a Simmons deal that enables them to shed the two years and nearly $80 million left on Harris’ contract after this season might be too enticing to resist rather than holding out for a star in return.”
Aside from the contract i’ve always liked Harris. Good no mention of draft picks involved because we would need to target a shooter if this trade happens.
 
You are (apparently) arguing a whole slew of points I didn't make or imply. I'll leave it at that.
I tried my best at responding to all the things you said one by one so apparently I'm not sure what you are trying to say.

All I'm saying is the draft is a bit of a crapshoot - higher picks tend to do better, but even high picks can fail miserably or, like Oden or Bias, it's not even skill/effort-based but outside stuff that derails them.
If this is your point then I dont understand what you are saying. You are obviously aware of the odds on how much it benefits you to be in the top 3-4 but at the same time you try to argue against statistical data by naming some examples of when the top 3 pick didnt pan out. Believe me thay every single one of those players are accounted in the data and the data still clearly says you are so much better off drafting top 3 compared to 9-12th.

Drafting in the top 3 doesnt mean you are guaranteed a star and absolutely nobody is arguing that. Its just statistically proven that drafting top 3 gets sginificantly better results than drafting in the regular Kings position. It still remains the question on wether people acknowledge that fact and act like it (see Toronto last year) or if they ignore it and pretend that drafting 10th is close enough.

Again, Toronto wont be sorry for those couple of extra losses because it netted them better draft positio, AKA Barnes. Not one person that cares about Kings is happy that they won every game they could just to put them away from Barnes and Wagner. Not a single person. This isnt directed to you but I have a very hard time to undersrand why we let this thing happen year after year ater year.
 

Warhawk

The cake is a lie.
Staff member
I tried my best at responding to all the things you said one by one so apparently I'm not sure what you are trying to say.



If this is your point then I dont understand what you are saying. You are obviously aware of the odds on how much it benefits you to be in the top 3-4 but at the same time you try to argue against statistical data by naming some examples of when the top 3 pick didnt pan out. Believe me thay every single one of those players are accounted in the data and the data still clearly says you are so much better off drafting top 3 compared to 9-12th.

Drafting in the top 3 doesnt mean you are guaranteed a star and absolutely nobody is arguing that. Its just statistically proven that drafting top 3 gets sginificantly better results than drafting in the regular Kings position. It still remains the question on wether people acknowledge that fact and act like it (see Toronto last year) or if they ignore it and pretend that drafting 10th is close enough.

Again, Toronto wont be sorry for those couple of extra losses because it netted them better draft positio, AKA Barnes. Not one person that cares about Kings is happy that they won every game they could just to put them away from Barnes and Wagner. Not a single person. This isnt directed to you but I have a very hard time to undersrand why we let this thing happen year after year ater year.
I'm not arguing against any statistical data. I never did. You are the one bringing that bent into this. You are taking what I said, pushing it down the field about 50 yards, and then saying you are responding to my statement, which isn't the case.

Go back, re-read what I said, and don't keep trying to add to it.
 
I'm not arguing against any statistical data. I never did. You are the one bringing that bent into this. You are taking what I said, pushing it down the field about 50 yards, and then saying you are responding to my statement, which isn't the case.

Go back, re-read what I said, and don't keep trying to add to it.
I'm sure you can see how these types of comments can be easily seen as arguing against the statistical data:

All I'm saying is the draft is a bit of a crapshoot - higher picks tend to do better, but even high picks can fail miserably or, like Oden or Bias, it's not even skill/effort-based but outside stuff that derails them.
Because for every Toronto example where they may have done well, you could also end up with a Pervis Ellison, or Greg Oden, or Marco Milicic, or Hasheem Thabeet, or Len Bias, etc. Or you fall in the draft lottery outside the range of the best players. Or in Kings land, maybe you get Stauskas, Justin James, Trob, Quincy Douby, or Dickau.
As I said all of those players and circumstances are accounted for in the data. Its unneccecary to bring out single examples as the data has already accounted for them so either you have some way argued against data by bringing out single examples or I have completely missed your point on why you even brought them up but I'm more than willing to hear it.
 

Warhawk

The cake is a lie.
Staff member
As I said all of those players and circumstances are accounted for in the data.
Great. I'm glad that makes you happy. I never argued against that. You are arguing with me about something I never said. I just said the lottery has potholes, with high draft picks that frequently don't pan out. That's it.
 
Great. I'm glad that makes you happy. I never argued against that. You are arguing with me about something I never said. I just said the lottery has potholes, with high draft picks that frequently don't pan out. That's it.
In fairness Warhawk, in the context of this discussion, your comment appears to suggest that both outcomes are of equal value/potential (the outcomes being a 10th pick or a top 3 pick). Otherwise why even make the comment. I get that you're pointing out that nothing is guaranteed, but everybody is aware of that already.

This discussion happens every year, and there are always people pointing out that not every top pick is a guaranteed star, and that stars can be picked later in the lottery. But we already know this. It is not the salient point. The point is that statistically you are much more likely to get that star at the top of the draft.

This franchise has been wallowing in suckitude and mediocrity for the last decade and a half because they can't get it through their thick skulls that clamoring for the 8th seed is not going to get them anywhere. And it's mind numbingly painful that they keep doing it, year after year.

EDIT: If there is frustration and bitterness in my post, it is not directed at you, Warhawk. It's toward this organisation.