Bee: Land is the new currency in sports

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http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/418021.html

Land is the new currency in sports
Private development at Cal Expo eyed as way to pay for arena.
By Terri Hardy and Mary Lynne Vellinga - Bee Staff Writers
Published 12:00 am PDT Saturday, October 6, 2007
Story appeared in MAIN NEWS section, Page A22


Land has become the new ATM for sports team owners who want better digs but can't get voters to part with the cash to build them.

The NBA's fledgling plan to build a new Kings arena at Cal Expo and pay for it with profits from private development on the state-owned site is the latest in a series of such proposals around the country.

"It's a new model that's very common," said Andrew Zimbalist, an economics professor at Smith College and an expert on sports financing.

Instead of raising sales or car rental taxes, governments can provide sports team owners with zoning changes or, in some cases, the land itself on which to build profit-making developments.

"There has been a real pushback by the public on taxes, so they're finding a way around that," said Dennis Coates, an economist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.

In Sacramento, NBA consultant John Moag embraced such an approach after last year's crushing voter rejection of a sales tax increase to build an arena in the downtown railyard.

Little is known about what precisely the NBA plans to propose. Moag and Cal Expo officials have just begun talks -- and there's no guarantee they'll reach a deal. But the basic idea is this: Cal Expo would lease part of its 360 acres to a developer who would make money by building housing, offices and retail.

"I've been told by commercial real estate brokers that the (Cal Expo) freeway frontage property could be valued at anywhere from $700,000 to $1 million an acre, but that was a couple of years ago when the market was hot," said Brian May, Cal Expo's deputy general manager.

May said Moag has told him the arena itself would require 18 acres. How much additional land could be made available remains to be negotiated. The fairgrounds and associated horse racing facilities occupy all but about 100 acres of the property, not including parking.

Any developer chosen for the project would pay Cal Expo rent for the land, and these payments could be used to pay off bonds issued to build an arena and renovate the worn fairgrounds -- work that could cost more than $650 million. On Friday, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed into law a bill by Sen. Dave Cox, R-Fair Oaks, that establishes a State Fair Leasing Authority that could issue such bonds.

Elsewhere in the country, the strategy of using development to drum up sports dollars has produced little in terms of bricks and mortar so far, but numerous plans are in the works.

The Oakland A's, for instance, control about 226 acres near Interstate 880. The A's envision developing the acreage into a "baseball village" with shops, housing and a hotel near the ballpark.

The availability of land took the A's to neighboring Fremont in search of a new home, said Keith Wolff, the team's vice president of venue development.

Wolff said the project would cover about one-third of the stadium's price tag. The rest could come from the team. Already, the A's have secured a $120 million naming rights deal with technology heavyweight Cisco Systems.

Land also prompted the San Francisco 49ers to tap Santa Clara as the team's preferred location for a new stadium.

The team is proposing to build an $854 million state-of-the-art stadium on a city-owned parking lot now leased by Great America amusement park.

The mother of all the new sports/development plans, however, is the proposal for a fleet of 16 high-rises surrounding a new Brooklyn arena for the New Jersey Nets. Designed by star architect Frank Gehry, the towers would contain 6,400 apartments and condominiums.

While such development plans hold appeal because they don't raise taxes, they still can stir controversy. They often involve less obvious public subsidies -- such as the donation of land or money for streets and utilities -- that can total many millions of dollars.

The city and state of New York are collectively spending $300 million for infrastructure serving the Brooklyn project by Forest City Ratner, a development firm headed by Nets owner Bruce Ratner. Opponents assert that the true subsidies for the development, including tax breaks for the housing, top $1 billion.

In Santa Clara, the 49ers are asking the city to provide $160 million, move an electrical substation and build a new parking garage -- a commitment of $222 million, said Carol McCarthy, deputy city manager.

The plan -- still being studied by the city -- doesn't specify how Santa Clara would come up with the money. One possible source is developing a city-owned 7.6- acre parcel in another part of the community.

A city study concludes the parcel could produce $1.9 million in rent annually to help repay stadium loans. Redevelopment funds are another possible source under consideration.

Any deal at Cal Expo would likely involve significant public spending as well. NBA consultant Moag has said he's counting on the city and the Maloofs, who own the Kings, to contribute 185 acres they own side by side in North Natomas.

A recent city appraisal estimates the value of the North Natomas land at $398,057 an acre, or $73.6 million.

Councilman Rob Fong, a supporter of the Cal Expo plan, said using the Natomas land makes sense. He noted that the property is constrained by an agreement requiring the city and the Maloofs to agree on any sale or development.

"We're hopeful that the majority of folks will understand that to make an arena happen, to bring about a new and improved Cal Expo, it would be well worth an investment on the city's part," Fong said.

Improving transit service to the traffic-clogged area around Cal Expo also would require assistance, said Councilman Steve Cohn. "We're going to need to put public money into transportation at a minimum," Cohn said. "I would say there's not going to be any general fund money."

He said the city could issue bonds for transportation improvements, which could be paid back by the developer's rent.

In order to support such hefty payments, new development at Cal Expo would likely have to be much more dense than the low-slung shopping centers, office buildings and single-family neighborhoods that now surround it.

Sacramento's draft city general plan calls for a satellite downtown -- complete with high-rise buildings -- near Cal Expo.

Cohn, whose district includes Cal Expo, said he's not sure how intense the development would have to be. Although it's sure to draw some opposition, Cohn said he thinks a development could be designed to mollify concerns.

"Traffic is an issue people would care about," he said. "And views. A lot of people don't want to see high-rises next to the American River Parkway."

About the writer: The Bee's Mary Lynne Vellinga can be reached at (916) 321-1094 or mlvellinga@sacbee.com.
 
"We're hopeful that the majority of folks will understand that to make an arena happen, to bring about a new and improved Cal Expo, it would be well worth an investment on the city's part," Fong said.

The city wants an arena project done, in case anyone was still wondering. They unfortunately have their hands tied, and no one is willing to sacrifice themself to support an unfavorable plan.

"And views. A lot of people don't want to see high-rises next to the American River Parkway."

Anything that has to do with the Parkway will see a fight to the death. Don't be surprised if papers are being drafted as we speak, just waiting to be served. Traffic gets a lot of attention, but this plan will live or die by how it affects the Parkway.
 
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Anything that has to do with the Parkway will see a fight to the death. Don't be surprised if papers are being drafted as we speak, just waiting to be served. Traffic gets a lot of attention, but this plan will live or die by how it affects the Parkway.

I agree that some of the NO development at any cost anywhere near the American River Parkway will be a battle to be waged - but I won't be throwing in with those knee-jerks.

I've ridden my hybrid bike along the entire 20+ miles of the American River Parkway for many years - although my average ride in recent summers has routinely been about half its long length. As I ride along, 95% of it is amazing wilderness where I've seen all kinds of wildlife, including some wild humans, coyotes, turkeys, pheasants, deer, etc. (no mountain lions although there's one 30+ year old sign along the route near Nimbus indicating be on the look out for the big cats). The entire parkway is stunning (as anyone who traverses it knows) smack the middle of a big urban area like Sac.

Still, there's parts that are not exactly wilderness per se, but not restrictive or impediments to the enjoyable experience. Probably the most obvious ones are right around the Cal Expo complex such as its grand stand, race track and various out buildings. Being that all that stuff is off in the distance from the bike trail it has zero affect as I zoom by. Elsewhere, there's some high voltage power lines plus substations, a water tower here or there, and a fews other distant structures like some multiple story office buildings opposite the high levies. Again, all that development is there now and has no affect as I dash along the trail.

I don't suppose a new Arena rising up at Cal Expo glistening in the distance would cause me any problems either as I biked right on by. No, it might have one affect - as I screamed at the top of my lungs seeing it under construction - GO KINGS!! - the ever present squirrels or any Laker fans in ear shot dashing for immediate cover.
 
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Are people unable to enjoy Central Park because it is surrounded by high rises?

(I do not doubt that this will be an issue by the way. There is a faction out there that will do just about anything to impede progress in Sacramento)
 
I really cannot imagine that any new arena built at this site would be higher than the water tower at Cal Expo.

I still see money as being the largest impediment to this plan, and honestly, I can see no way around that problem. People are heading straight for the secondary issues (traffic, transit, parking, air quality) and ignoring the one issue that will probably make any traffic study pointless: Money.

I kind of foresee this happening this way: The state leases land to one or more businesses that operate on this state-owned land, and they charge them rent for the land. The kind of business I see is more amusement park-related; I'm thinking "Knott's Berry Farm, Sacramento", not apartments or office towers.

So the state would own an arena, that would be part of the Fair and used for both fair and non-fair functions, using rent collected from the leased land, to pay for the arena. The teams that play in that arena would then pay rent.

That's the picture that's emerging for me, and if my vision is correct, I think it'll require a large outside infusion of cash to work. The new developments won't provide the cash flow to pay the bond debt on the arena (remember, they'll have their own bond payments to make, and with tight margins, it will be hard for these "other" developments to cover their own bond debt plus that of the arena). The sale of the land in Natomas ($40 million, tops) can only get you so far, and any input from the Maloofs (which was proposed to be under $10 million annually under Q&R) won't be sufficient, and corporate contributions will be negligible (signage rates of $1 million or so, tops).

Realistically, Tretheway (although I now suspect he's now a part of this forum's enemies list) is right to bring up money concerns first. I think it's extremely likely this will require additional City funds to help pay would could be an estimated $30 million in annual bond payments. Just seat of the pants, but I think this would require at least $10 million a year from the City (figuring $10 million from the State, $10 million from the Maloofs, and the balance coming from the City). And remember, these are just guesses.

I think we're back to a public vote, only because Q&R lost by such a large margin, and politicians understand the consequences of, in effect, thwarting the will of the 80% who voted against Q&R. It remains to be seen just how much the estimates will all work out to be, but I think my guesses will be within the ranges we finally get.

One final note: The NBA is just 30 teams, so I expect no money from them. Getting money from the NBA means that teams will pay into a large fund, and all 30 teams will then have access to those funds. Right now, Orlando and Seattle would have equally valid claims to that pot of money, and eventually, all 30 teams would be paying in and withdrawing, which has the effect of having no fund at all. So I expect the contribution from the NBA would be, in the long run, zero. In the short run, maybe they can help, but over the course of a 20-30 year agreement, the net effect would be zero effect.
 
Arena Skeptic, sometimes i wonder if you actually bother to read what's written. They are not talking about "amusement-park" related development AT ALL. They are talking about a satellite downtown type development. Specifically they are talking about stores, offices and homes. How do you turn that into amusement park-type development? :confused:

Also, if all they get from developers is lease payments on the land, then someone screwed up the deal big time. Development of the type described could indeed make considerable money due to the desirability of the location for commercial, office and residential development. Close to downtown right next to the American River Parkway. I'd love to live in a condo in that location, altho it likely would be out of my financial reach.

The developers won't pay any lease long-term, unless they plan on owning what they develop (very often, not the case). Whoever owns the developed properties will pay the land lease. They pass the cost along to their tenants. If I buy a condo, I'd pay on the lease, which is generally a lot cheaper than buying the land as part of the mortgage.

They could also sell 100-year leases on sections of land at a discount for the entire hundred years of lease payments up front using a present value calculation. Or discount the lease for some portion of years up front. If you don't pay up front, there could be an inflation increase built in to the lease.

These are some thoughts. For shrewd financial people, I'm sure there are plenty of other creative ideas. Will it generate all the money needed? Who knows, but I doubt it's as anemic and uncreative as what you've presented, either.

We complain about traffic, but the problem causing traffic isn't density and development close to the city core, it's sprawl. It's all the people driving in from ever far away suburbs. Density, compactness and a mix of residential, commercial and office space makes mass transit much more cost effective and efficient.

So far, the only mention of city money would be the city's money from the sale of the part of the Natomas land they own. That would not require a vote of the citizens.
 
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Arena Skeptic, sometimes i wonder if you actually bother to read what's written. They are not talking about "amusement-park" related development AT ALL. They are talking about a satellite downtown type development. Specifically they are talking about stores, offices and homes. How do you turn that into amusement park-type development? :confused:

Also, if all they get from developers is lease payments on the land, then someone screwed up the deal big time. Development of the type described could indeed make considerable money due to the desirability of the location for commercial, office and residential development. Close to downtown right next to the American River Parkway. I'd love to live in a condo in that location, altho it likely would be out of my financial reach.

The developers won't pay any lease long-term, unless they plan on owning what they develop (very often, not the case). Whoever owns the developed properties will pay the land lease. They pass the cost along to their tenants. If I buy a condo, I'd pay on the lease, which is generally a lot cheaper than buying the land as part of the mortgage.

They could also sell 100-year leases on sections of land at a discount for the entire hundred years of lease payments up front using a present value calculation. Or discount the lease for some portion of years up front. If you don't pay up front, there could be an inflation increase built in to the lease.

These are some thoughts. For shrewd financial people, I'm sure there are plenty of other creative ideas. Will it generate all the money needed? Who knows, but I doubt it's as anemic and uncreative as what you've presented, either.

We complain about traffic, but the problem causing traffic isn't density and development close to the city core, it's sprawl. It's all the people driving in from ever far away suburbs. Density, compactness and a mix of residential, commercial and office space makes mass transit much more cost effective and efficient.

So far, the only mention of city money would be the city's money from the sale of the part of the Natomas land they own. That would not require a vote of the citizens.

Well, I bring up the idea of an amusement park because, as I think I said, the idea of housing and office space at that site will be rejected, because it does not meet the character of that area. What I'm trying to do is imagine a way that they can continue to use that general geographic area in a way somewhat consistent with its current use.

My best guess is that if they decide it's going to be apartments and offices, they might just as well call the NBA tomorrow and tell them they can't put anything together, because I absolutely guarantee you, housing and office space at that site will not work. I'm trying to find something I think has some chance of working, not something I am certain is DOA.

The money they get from selling the Natomas site would get maybe a 10% down payment. There is just no way of turning $40 million into $400 million. And as I said, you are right that it does not REQUIRE a vote. What makes this vote-worthy is the 80-20 vote last year. If they proceed to put the full faith and credit of the City's general fund behind the bond, the hue and cry from the voters will be overwhelming. I do not disagree with you that nothing here (yet) REQUIRES a vote; I am saying that there's something about past history here that will compel the politicians to seek a vote. You're ignoring this point.

Traffic will be an issue, but let's just throw this together: $400 million for the arena, $200 million for the trolley system (log on to Portland, Ore's website for trolley cost estimates, if you don't think $200 million is correct), and the lease from less than 400 acres of land is supposed to support that.

It's not going to happen. You can deduce this before ANY in-depth study on parking, traffic, air quality and transit. That's why I say, Examine the costs first. If you can't get at least $1.2 billion in rent from that land (and that assumes zero state profit, by the way; $400 million bond issue for the arena, $200 million bond issue for the trolley; $1.2 billion total, after interest) over 30 years, then the bottom-line is that additional money has to come from somewhere, which means, most likely, the City general fund; and our politicians won't simply hand the keys to the vault to make up any shortfalls without a vote.

Legally, they can. Politically, in the face of a recent 80-20 loss at the polls, they absolutely cannot. That's the point you're missing, I assume unintentionally.
 
Well, I bring up the idea of an amusement park because, as I think I said, the idea of housing and office space at that site will be rejected, because it does not meet the character of that area. What I'm trying to do is imagine a way that they can continue to use that general geographic area in a way somewhat consistent with its current use.

My best guess is that if they decide it's going to be apartments and offices, they might just as well call the NBA tomorrow and tell them they can't put anything together, because I absolutely guarantee you, housing and office space at that site will not work. I'm trying to find something I think has some chance of working, not something I am certain is DOA.


Traffic will be an issue, but let's just throw this together: $400 million for the arena, $200 million for the trolley system (log on to Portland, Ore's website for trolley cost estimates, if you don't think $200 million is correct), and the lease from less than 400 acres of land is supposed to support that.


I am not sure what you mean here when you say that offices and apartments/condos do not meet the character of the area.

First, it is a suburban infill project of open land so the open land really does not have any character to speak of. Additionally, all you have to do is look across the street (expo. Blvd) to find a mixture of apartment complexes and offices along response road, heritage etc.

I imagine the project at Cal Expo would include a higher density mixture of offices and residences. However, I do not see how it would be out of character. If anything, it seems very consistent with what is already going on there.

Plus, I could see how young people without kids or empty nester's would really like living in that area. It would be great to be a Kings season ticket holder and walk to and from the games for starters. But you also could shop, eat and go to the movies without using a car. Furthermore, you could ride your bike to downtown via the parkway and if the rail yards is ever developed, that would also be well within a nice bike ride away.

Sounds like a fun place to live actually.

Adding 200 million to the price tag is premature IMHO. We do not know that will be done. Plus, regardless of what happens at Cal Expo, the city will need to look at a really hefty road improvement project along that bottleneck. Another 5-10 years of sprawling growth and accompanying traffic increases will make today look like the good ole' days.
 
Well, I bring up the idea of an amusement park because, as I think I said, the idea of housing and office space at that site will be rejected, because it does not meet the character of that area. What I'm trying to do is imagine a way that they can continue to use that general geographic area in a way somewhat consistent with its current use.

My best guess is that if they decide it's going to be apartments and offices, they might just as well call the NBA tomorrow and tell them they can't put anything together, because I absolutely guarantee you, housing and office space at that site will not work. I'm trying to find something I think has some chance of working, not something I am certain is DOA.

The money they get from selling the Natomas site would get maybe a 10% down payment. There is just no way of turning $40 million into $400 million. And as I said, you are right that it does not REQUIRE a vote. What makes this vote-worthy is the 80-20 vote last year. If they proceed to put the full faith and credit of the City's general fund behind the bond, the hue and cry from the voters will be overwhelming. I do not disagree with you that nothing here (yet) REQUIRES a vote; I am saying that there's something about past history here that will compel the politicians to seek a vote. You're ignoring this point.

Traffic will be an issue, but let's just throw this together: $400 million for the arena, $200 million for the trolley system (log on to Portland, Ore's website for trolley cost estimates, if you don't think $200 million is correct), and the lease from less than 400 acres of land is supposed to support that.

It's not going to happen. You can deduce this before ANY in-depth study on parking, traffic, air quality and transit. That's why I say, Examine the costs first. If you can't get at least $1.2 billion in rent from that land (and that assumes zero state profit, by the way; $400 million bond issue for the arena, $200 million bond issue for the trolley; $1.2 billion total, after interest) over 30 years, then the bottom-line is that additional money has to come from somewhere, which means, most likely, the City general fund; and our politicians won't simply hand the keys to the vault to make up any shortfalls without a vote.

Legally, they can. Politically, in the face of a recent 80-20 loss at the polls, they absolutely cannot. That's the point you're missing, I assume unintentionally.
How does this not meet the character of the area? What is around that area now...stores, offices, homes....Exactly what's proposed and an ideal place for it, for the reasons I stated. Infill development is highly preferable to more sprawl farther and farther from the city. Infill development contributes far less to traffic, air pollution than suburban sprawl. Transit is not a Cal Expo problem, it's an issue that every jurisdiction in this State needs to commit to doing something about. They need to quit designing cities around cars instead of transit, pedestrians and other modes of transportation.

First, the idea behind public entity bond-financing is not that you make a profit, as a matter of fact, legally you can't. The idea is you get the money you need to build now and pay your investors back with interest on schedule. If you make more than expected, you just end up paying the investors off earlier. I worked for a bond-issuing public agency. Not only did we pay off some bonds early, but since we could not collect more than was owned to the bond investors, we legally had to forgive the remaining loan balances outstanding.

The only entity legally responsible for repayment of the bond is the issuing entity, period. I very, very seriously doubt that the city is going to commit any general fund money to this. So I'm not missing the point about a public vote. I just don't believe the scenario you've posed about general fund money is ever going to happen. That is the whole point of the NBA's proposal. The only city participation mentioned is the possibility of the city contributing proceeds from the sale of the Natomas land.

I would not assume Cal Expo would pay for a trolley system. I'm not sure the legislature would even allow to them to pay for such an offsite cost.

$1.2 billion is way over any amounts mentioned so far for the possible bond amount. It's easy to make up scenarios that won't work. It's much harder to actually come up with something that has a decent chance of working. This proposal may ultimately not work, but I doubt if the NBA has entered into negotiations without already having far better financial minds than mine examine the numbers to see if this has a pretty good chance of working.
 
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I am not sure what you mean here when you say that offices and apartments/condos do not meet the character of the area.

First, it is a suburban infill project of open land so the open land really does not have any character to speak of. Additionally, all you have to do is look across the street (expo. Blvd) to find a mixture of apartment complexes and offices along response road, heritage etc.

I imagine the project at Cal Expo would include a higher density mixture of offices and residences. However, I do not see how it would be out of character. If anything, it seems very consistent with what is already going on there.

Plus, I could see how young people without kids or empty nester's would really like living in that area. It would be great to be a Kings season ticket holder and walk to and from the games for starters. But you also could shop, eat and go to the movies without using a car. Furthermore, you could ride your bike to downtown via the parkway and if the rail yards is ever developed, that would also be well within a nice bike ride away.

Sounds like a fun place to live actually.

Adding 200 million to the price tag is premature IMHO. We do not know that will be done. Plus, regardless of what happens at Cal Expo, the city will need to look at a really hefty road improvement project along that bottleneck. Another 5-10 years of sprawling growth and accompanying traffic increases will make today look like the good ole' days.

Excellent points. If I still lived in Sacramento I would seriously consider living in the area, and the nearness to the arena would be a major selling point for me ... along with the availability of virtually anything else I could need.
 
Excellent points. If I still lived in Sacramento I would seriously consider living in the area, and the nearness to the arena would be a major selling point for me ... along with the availability of virtually anything else I could need.
I'd love living there in a condo. Sign me up! :D
 
Is everyone familiar with FEMA's ruling on development in North Natomas?

http://www.sacbee.com/220/story/428428.html

Now, this may be coincidental, but as I understand it, part of the method used to fund Cal Expo Arena was to somehow make money from the land in Natomas. It turns out that the 185 acres is pretty much right in the middle of FEMA's new zone.

Why do I bring this up? Because it MAY throw a wrench in the works here. This 185 acres has been valued at as much as $400,000/acre. With FEMA's new restrictions, it's hard to see how this land has this much value. So, fine, let's go with that estimate.

Moreover, if Cal Expo Arena itself costs $400 million, and the infrastructure costs $200 million (honestly, I think those are low guesses, but by arguing these costs, this makes the project more feasible, not less feasible; I'm arguing in favor of, after all), that means the 30 year bond payout would be $1.2 billion.

Additionally, last year, the Maloofs balked at paying a share over $200 million (it was less than that; see parenthetical argument above). This leaves someone with a liability of $1 billion.

Now, my question is, How does this 185 acres produce $1 billion above and beyond the normal tax revenues raised from such a development? Remember, that 185 acres will cost the City some amount of money for police, fire, parks, schools, roads, water, and so forth. That may not all be on the 185 acres itself, but it would add to the area in general.

So that's really my question: What makes this 185 acres so special (remember the FEMA ruling) that it will raise City revenues the way most 185 acre developments do, PLUS bring in $1 billion to fund an arena?

Because I don't see it. If the City does not charge a special permitting fee to locate on that 185 acres, then the $1 billion will not materialize. On the other hand, the vast majority of companies will locate elsewhere if the permitting fees are "special" in that area, so as to raise $1 billion.

One thing happened on the day FEMA made this ruling: Cal Expo and NBA were scheduled to meet on Oct 16 to further discuss Cal Expo Arena. However, on October 12, which is the day after FEMA made their ruling, the NBA and the Cal Expo Board canceled this meeting, without comment.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2007/10/08/daily52.html

Seriously, folks, my main point all along on this is that it's so close to certain Cal Expo Arena will require a public vote, you can be certain that's the only way it will happen. I just don't see a way around it.

This is what I'd do: Politicians are considering a special assessment to fund the American River Parkway. When such an assessment is imposed only on homeowners within the City limits, they face less of a challenge from the voters. An average of $5/house would probably do the trick. It would not fully fund an arena, though. It's not close. That would raise under $1 million/year, and it'd probably have to be more like $50 (average) per homeowner. And at that rate, it would require more input from the Maloofs than they proposed during Q&R.

Bottom-line: I think if you're arguing for doing this without a vote, you're arguing for the team's departure from this city. The politicians will not expose the City's general fund to this much liability without a vote, period. But an average of $50 per assessed property in this City has a better chance.

The more I think about it, though, I think either way is a very long shot.

Personally, I think Prop 13 is the main reason. I seriously do. California has a handicap very few other places in the world face. With AEG/Harrah's opening by 2011, probably at substantially less than $200 million over 20 years, it will be very hard for teams to resist. I know some say the NBA won't allow it, but I don't think they can stop it. They can express moral outrage at whatever team decides to go, but Las Vegas is no more a den of sin than LA, Miami, Oakland or Philadelphia (among others). The NBA simply has no jurisdiction over state law.

The NBA may PREFER KC to LV, but they can't FORCE KC over LV.
 
Is everyone familiar with FEMA's ruling on development in North Natomas?

http://www.sacbee.com/220/story/428428.html

Now, this may be coincidental, but as I understand it, part of the method used to fund Cal Expo Arena was to somehow make money from the land in Natomas. It turns out that the 185 acres is pretty much right in the middle of FEMA's new zone.

Why do I bring this up? Because it MAY throw a wrench in the works here. This 185 acres has been valued at as much as $400,000/acre. With FEMA's new restrictions, it's hard to see how this land has this much value. So, fine, let's go with that estimate.

Moreover, if Cal Expo Arena itself costs $400 million, and the infrastructure costs $200 million (honestly, I think those are low guesses, but by arguing these costs, this makes the project more feasible, not less feasible; I'm arguing in favor of, after all), that means the 30 year bond payout would be $1.2 billion.

Additionally, last year, the Maloofs balked at paying a share over $200 million (it was less than that; see parenthetical argument above). This leaves someone with a liability of $1 billion.

Now, my question is, How does this 185 acres produce $1 billion above and beyond the normal tax revenues raised from such a development? Remember, that 185 acres will cost the City some amount of money for police, fire, parks, schools, roads, water, and so forth. That may not all be on the 185 acres itself, but it would add to the area in general.

So that's really my question: What makes this 185 acres so special (remember the FEMA ruling) that it will raise City revenues the way most 185 acre developments do, PLUS bring in $1 billion to fund an arena?

Because I don't see it. If the City does not charge a special permitting fee to locate on that 185 acres, then the $1 billion will not materialize. On the other hand, the vast majority of companies will locate elsewhere if the permitting fees are "special" in that area, so as to raise $1 billion.

One thing happened on the day FEMA made this ruling: Cal Expo and NBA were scheduled to meet on Oct 16 to further discuss Cal Expo Arena. However, on October 12, which is the day after FEMA made their ruling, the NBA and the Cal Expo Board canceled this meeting, without comment.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2007/10/08/daily52.html

Seriously, folks, my main point all along on this is that it's so close to certain Cal Expo Arena will require a public vote, you can be certain that's the only way it will happen. I just don't see a way around it.

This is what I'd do: Politicians are considering a special assessment to fund the American River Parkway. When such an assessment is imposed only on homeowners within the City limits, they face less of a challenge from the voters. An average of $5/house would probably do the trick. It would not fully fund an arena, though. It's not close. That would raise under $1 million/year, and it'd probably have to be more like $50 (average) per homeowner. And at that rate, it would require more input from the Maloofs than they proposed during Q&R.

Bottom-line: I think if you're arguing for doing this without a vote, you're arguing for the team's departure from this city. The politicians will not expose the City's general fund to this much liability without a vote, period. But an average of $50 per assessed property in this City has a better chance.

The more I think about it, though, I think either way is a very long shot.

Personally, I think Prop 13 is the main reason. I seriously do. California has a handicap very few other places in the world face. With AEG/Harrah's opening by 2011, probably at substantially less than $200 million over 20 years, it will be very hard for teams to resist. I know some say the NBA won't allow it, but I don't think they can stop it. They can express moral outrage at whatever team decides to go, but Las Vegas is no more a den of sin than LA, Miami, Oakland or Philadelphia (among others). The NBA simply has no jurisdiction over state law.

The NBA may PREFER KC to LV, but they can't FORCE KC over LV.
There has been zero mention of any use of general funds from the city...ZERO. They've gone out of their way to say it will not require city/county funds. So why do you keep posting as though it's some kind of fact? Argue the point when it's proposed, instead of making it up now just so you can knock it down.

Prop 13 has been a disaster and marks California's school system's drop from one of the best in the US to one of the worst, among other issues. You do get what you pay for.

I think a worse issue is the requirement for a 2/3 vote for new taxes (and for the State budget). It allows tyranny of the minority, instead of the majority rules, which is anti-democratic to me.

Actually, if the NBA owners don't want a team in LV, it's highly unlikley a team will go there. And clearly Stern has the backing of his employers, so far.
 
If Sacramento is going to have a new arena, somebody better get it done quickly. Casino money talks and civic BS walks. How do the common folk compete with high-rollers who have piles of discretionary cash?

http://www.lasvegaslogue.com/accomm...ts/harrahs-to-build-arena-next-to-ballys.html

Three ancillary factoids seem particularly interesting to me.

(1) Las Vegas is alleged to be the largest population center in the USA without a profesional sports team.

(2) Las Vegas recently lost their Arena Football team, the Gladiators, to Cleveland, Ohio.

Sacramento is the polar-opposite to Las Vegas in regional culture and demographics. Cleveland is of course much different than Sacramento, but it nothing like Las Vegas.

(3) Much like Sacramento, the unwashed voters of Las Vegas have indicated their disapproval for using public money to build a professional sports arena.

These must be a the military families, card dealers, casino service staff, and general nobodies who live normal mundane lives in the glittery abode of the Great Satan.

Las Vegas got the gamblers, prostitutes, and thieves. Sacramento got Fabio Nunez and the California legislature. At least they spread the wealth around in Vegas.
 
There has been zero mention of any use of general funds from the city...ZERO. They've gone out of their way to say it will not require city/county funds. So why do you keep posting as though it's some kind of fact? Argue the point when it's proposed, instead of making it up now just so you can knock it down.

Prop 13 has been a disaster and marks California's school system's drop from one of the best in the US to one of the worst, among other issues. You do get what you pay for.

I think a worse issue is the requirement for a 2/3 vote for new taxes (and for the State budget). It allows tyranny of the minority, instead of the majority rules, which is anti-democratic to me.

Actually, if the NBA owners don't want a team in LV, it's highly unlikley a team will go there. And clearly Stern has the backing of his employers, so far.

The decline of California's public schools has nothing to do with money, and everything to do with immigration and demographics.
 
The decline of California's public schools has nothing to do with money, and everything to do with immigration and demographics.
Of course money is not the only reason, but to think it has nothing to do with it is wrong. California was a state that once (pre-Prop34) was among those that spent the highest amount per pupil on elementary-secondary education. It was also probably the most admired educational system in the country.

California is now 25th in per-pupil spending and is below the national average. It does make a difference.
 
Of course money is not the only reason, but to think it has nothing to do with it is wrong. California was a state that once (pre-Prop34) was among those that spent the highest amount per pupil on elementary-secondary education. It was also probably the most admired educational system in the country.

California is now 25th in per-pupil spending and is below the national average. It does make a difference.

It makes a difference, but when the administration costs and overhead are finally trimmed to where they should be and the teachers are paid what they deserve, THEN I will worry about "per-pupil" spending. Higher spending does no good if it doesn't go where it should.

I agree that Prop-13 gets blamed for lots of ills that really shouldn't apply. It enabled folks to keep their homes. To me that is much more important than giving politicians millions more $$$ to spend on programs we don't need. Cash inflow isn't the problem in California, it's outflow that is out of control.
 
I actually think that California has one of the best public school systems in the country, but that just may be me.
 
It makes a difference, but when the administration costs and overhead are finally trimmed to where they should be and the teachers are paid what they deserve, THEN I will worry about "per-pupil" spending. Higher spending does no good if it doesn't go where it should.

I agree that Prop-13 gets blamed for lots of ills that really shouldn't apply. It enabled folks to keep their homes. To me that is much more important than giving politicians millions more $$$ to spend on programs we don't need. Cash inflow isn't the problem in California, it's outflow that is out of control.
I've worked in affordable housing for close to 20 years now. The elderly fixed-income homeowners that were supposedy the main concern later got a law that allows tax-deferral until death or transfer of ownership.

Prop 13 has only added to the housing affordability problem in California. So it may enable some people to hold onto their homes, that otherwise couldn't, but it's at the costs of pricing even some moderate income families out of ever being able to own a home. Not a fair trade-off in my book.
 
I actually think that California has one of the best public school systems in the country, but that just may be me.
A lot of teachers in my family here and in other states. Believe me, California is no where near the top anymore. :(
 
I've worked in affordable housing for close to 20 years now. The elderly fixed-income homeowners that were supposedy the main concern later got a law that allows tax-deferral until death or transfer of ownership.

Prop 13 has only added to the housing affordability problem in California. So it may enable some people to hold onto their homes, that otherwise couldn't, but it's at the costs of pricing even some moderate income families out of ever being able to own a home. Not a fair trade-off in my book.

But the problem isn't necessarily Prop-13, one of the big reasons for housing pricess increasing is lawsuits - insurance costs have skyrocketed in the construction industry and a lot of firms (including the one I work for) got out of the residential market because of the legal issues. Competition is less than it used to be. Condo projects have become rare (until just recently) because of these legal issues (among others). Land prices are much higher. Materials costs have increased immensely due to Katrina and other disasters (we just moved into our new house and our contractor told us what material prices have done in recent years).

Affordable housing would be in much better shape if the legal issues were under control and companies wouldn't get sued left and right.

And frankly, I do not think it is fair to keep raising taxes on folks who own their homes, either. Yes, another law addressed it later, but Prop-13 did a lot of good in the state, especially at it's time. There are LOTS of wasted funds in the budget. Go after those funds and not burden families trying to keep the homes they are already in by raising taxes on them even more.

And don't even start with the "death tax" - that's a whole 'nother item that should be abolished. :eek: