Bagley.

#1
Okay at this point here are Marvin’s numbers:

DefRtg. 114.5
TS%. 50.8
PIE. 9.5
Reb%. 13.3
Pts (per36) 20.7
3Pt %. 19%
+/- -9.7

can you find sophomore’s with comparable numbers? The only one I can find is Thomas Robinson.
 
#2
The sad part about all this talk about Bagley is that nobody is ripping the dude for being picked over other players. He cannot control where he's selected. Its like IT was a steal where he was picked, not based just on his talent and what he was capable of in Boston, but how that talent was viewed through the lens of where he was picked. Bagley is a project, one that has potential to be very good if he improves his game. But that project through the lens of the second pick is another story. I hope he improves to reach his potential, but there's no indication of that happening and we all know this franchise has a horrible track record of developing talent.

If I had the keys to the kingdom, I'd try to move him at the deadline in a package with other guys because I think his value will not be as high as it is right now.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
#3
I have been wildly disappointed with Bagley’s progress, but I also don’t know what a lot of those numbers even measure. For instance, DefRtg, what goes into that? I know from another thread that Fox is second worst on the team. But, from a coach’s standpoint, Fox is one of our best defenders. So, what’s the measurement? Because then I need to figure out why Fox is an outlier. PIE? How is Reb % measured? I think more context to these measurements would be beneficial to the conversation.
 
#4
I have been wildly disappointed with Bagley’s progress, but I also don’t know what a lot of those numbers even measure. For instance, DefRtg, what goes into that? I know from another thread that Fox is second worst on the team. But, from a coach’s standpoint, Fox is one of our best defenders. So, what’s the measurement? Because then I need to figure out why Fox is an outlier. PIE? How is Reb % measured? I think more context to these measurements would be beneficial to the conversation.
Fox has look atrocious on defense at times. He is a very inconsistent defender. I think there's some merit to that stat.
 
#5
Fox has look atrocious on defense at times. He is a very inconsistent defender. I think there's some merit to that stat.
Sure, maybe...but there are also games like against the Pelicans where he was obviously instructed to keep letting Lonzo shoot, and Lonzo nailed 7 or 8 3s. Anyway, I don’t doubt Bagley is our worst defender, just interested in further context.
 
#7
I don't understand how advanced metrics like defensive rating are measured so I won't even approach that subject.

All I will say is that, there's definitely room for improvement and he has the talent to get there, BUT my biggest concern is that I don't think he's going to be able to stay healthy long term. Even last game he tweaked his foot slightly. He's been injured way too many times to start his career.

We can call it freak accidents and the like, but it's an injury nonetheless and he's missed a lot of time on the court. Every time he steps onto the floor I'm beginning to fear injury and that's an awful feeling to have as a spectator.
 
#8
He's a project, he needs consistent minutes to develop and he's been constantly injured. Obviously the latter is becoming a huge problem and making the pick look terrible in the shadow of a few guys picked behind him. I don't see any benefit in trading him - he's going to develop from where he is now. He just needs to stay on the court. If he is full strength next year and we steal a good draft pick out of all our misfortune this season, there are worse things that can happen if we look like last year's team.
 
#9
I don't understand how advanced metrics like defensive rating are measured so I won't even approach that subject.

All I will say is that, there's definitely room for improvement and he has the talent to get there, BUT my biggest concern is that I don't think he's going to be able to stay healthy long term. Even last game he tweaked his foot slightly. He's been injured way too many times to start his career.

We can call it freak accidents and the like, but it's an injury nonetheless and he's missed a lot of time on the court. Every time he steps onto the floor I'm beginning to fear injury and that's an awful feeling to have as a spectator.
I don't think we have a Greg Oden situation on our hands but damn, it's always one minor injury after another. What the hell? Is he really this fragile? And what can be done about it?
 
#10
Defensive rating is a really bad stat and shouldn't be accounted for anything.

Stuff like DRPM, DPIPM, DBPM, etc are much better. Even these are hard to account for as defensive statistics are so much further behind offensive numbers, None of those favor Bagley either in any way, but let's all agree to use good numbers.
 
#12
One thing I will say is a lot of this has been fragmented from a game sense. Plays 1 game, out for awhile. Plays 6 or 7 games working back to full strength, gets hurt again. Not a lot of consistent role/being healthy at any point in his career. Anytime he starts to get a little momentum and string some good games together, he gets hurt.

His long-term health is something else to discuss, but I'll be really keying in on these last few months if he can stay healthy and how he performs as a key cog over a longer sample. The Free-Throw rate is incredibly concerning and was one of the shining marks of his rookie year that he had the potential to be a lead offensive weapon. Basically, we'll see.
 
#13
Defensive rating is a really bad stat and shouldn't be accounted for anything.

Stuff like DRPM, DPIPM, DBPM, etc are much better. Even these are hard to account for as defensive statistics are so much further behind offensive numbers, None of those favor Bagley either in any way, but let's all agree to use good numbers.
I have a really tough time with all these things, but let's be honest - even without stats he doesn't pass the eye test on the defensive end. He was poorly coached thanks to his dad and he's yet to have a good coach for more than one season. It's going to take time.
 
#14
I have a really tough time with all these things, but let's be honest - even without stats he doesn't pass the eye test on the defensive end. He was poorly coached thanks to his dad and he's yet to have a good coach for more than one season. It's going to take time.
Agreed. I think defense is really tricky to evaluate because it's so team dependent. Eye test will always be valuable imo in that aspect until we figure out a better way to quantify defensive impact.

Bagley had some good moments in Utah vs Gobert, which might be the absolute worst match-up for him in the NBA. Made plenty of mistakes, but Ingles and Mitchell were just getting free reign wherever they wanted to go on the floor in the PnR.
 
#15
One thing I will say is a lot of this has been fragmented from a game sense. Plays 1 game, out for awhile. Plays 6 or 7 games working back to full strength, gets hurt again. Not a lot of consistent role/being healthy at any point in his career. Anytime he starts to get a little momentum and string some good games together, he gets hurt.

His long-term health is something else to discuss, but I'll be really keying in on these last few months if he can stay healthy and how he performs as a key cog over a longer sample. The Free-Throw rate is incredibly concerning and was one of the shining marks of his rookie year that he had the potential to be a lead offensive weapon. Basically, we'll see.
Yea I agree with this. I haven't criticized his actual play much because we've never been able to get a consistent look at him. I need to see him play a lengthy string of games at good health before I can really get an idea of where he's at. This on/off/on/off makes it hard to measure performance.
 
#19
Okay I have been ripping Bagley but his defense was much improved against Miami. Let’s hope he keeps it up.
His best game of the season by far.

Really, really, really want to see him drawing some fouls though and getting to the FT line. If he's not going to be a spacer, he needs to be super impactful in that area like he was as a rookie.
 
#20
Defensive rating is a really bad stat and shouldn't be accounted for anything.

Stuff like DRPM, DPIPM, DBPM, etc are much better. Even these are hard to account for as defensive statistics are so much further behind offensive numbers, None of those favor Bagley either in any way, but let's all agree to use good numbers.
I don't use stats to measure defense just to many variables. It's eye test and all the things that go with it.
 
#22
I was not able to watch the game but his rebound numbers yesterday was pretty good. Sometimes the ball bounces right for a player and I don’t expect him to get 15 boards every game.

But what I hope happens is now (hopefully) he stays healthy and continues to make big strides in his game as he did last year.
 
#23
I was not able to watch the game but his rebound numbers yesterday was pretty good. Sometimes the ball bounces right for a player and I don’t expect him to get 15 boards every game.

But what I hope happens is now (hopefully) he stays healthy and continues to make big strides in his game as he did last year.
Agreed, I think Bagley can become a force on both ends of the floor. To do this he has to play big minutes and stay on the floor.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#26
So the vaunted All Star in the making, Adebayo, gets 16 pts., 11 rebs, while Bagley gets 15 pts, 15 rebs. What happened to that 20 and 20 that was predetermined for "Bam" in this game? Bagley will leap-frog Bam, just like he's going to leap-frog Siakam. We've got to keep this thread going for a couple of years. It should be good for a laugh. Thomas Robinson? :D:D:D
 
#27
So the vaunted All Star in the making, Adebayo, gets 16 pts., 11 rebs, while Bagley gets 15 pts, 15 rebs. What happened to that 20 and 20 that was predetermined for "Bam" in this game? Bagley will leap-frog Bam, just like he's going to leap-frog Siakam. We've got to keep this thread going for a couple of years. It should be good for a laugh. Thomas Robinson? :D:D:D
There is a lot more to your value as a player than some raw box score stats. Bams contribution on defense is what makes him a winning player. Bagley hasnt yet contributed to winning basketball in his Nba career.
 
#29
So the vaunted All Star in the making, Adebayo, gets 16 pts., 11 rebs, while Bagley gets 15 pts, 15 rebs. What happened to that 20 and 20 that was predetermined for "Bam" in this game? Bagley will leap-frog Bam, just like he's going to leap-frog Siakam. We've got to keep this thread going for a couple of years. It should be good for a laugh. Thomas Robinson? :D:D:D
Yikes.

It'd be a massive win if Bagley ever becomes close to what Bam has been this season. He's one of the best big man playmakers in basketball, posts incredible efficiency (without a 3 ball i may add) on 3rd option USG and makes most of his impact as a lockdown defender and rim protector.
 
#30
Sometimes I wonder if people just want to see what they want to see. Bagley was much much better against the pick an roll yesterday.
I'm talking about a bigger sample size than one game. Also defense is very hard to evaluate by simply using eye test unless you are watching replays of the games concentrating on one player at a time. In one defensive possession there are often multiple things that a player has to do besides stopping his man one on one. There are multiple rotations, playing different passing lanes, box outs and executing different on/off ball screen coverages (switch, hedge sag off ect).

Its hard to spot one players performance on all those things in all the possessions. A good bbiq player often executes those things well and that means his team is better defensively when he is on the floor. To me, Bagley hasnt demonstrated that yet in his career and both the film and metrics agree with that.