accuracy of draft sites

[Big Cuz 15]

draft express & nbadraft were both on target with both of our 1st round picks last year. brandon jennings was projected to go much lower according to both sites..

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2009/

http://www.nbadraft.net/2009mock_draft

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Most of those sites dont really get into team needs and what GMs are actually saying about players until a month or so before the draft. Right now they're basically ranking the players in the draft, and instead of numbering them, they're putting a team next to them. Obviously, they dont know the draft order, they dont know what kind of information the combine will bring, they dont know who will work out for what teams .. They do get very accurate a couple days before the draft though.

 

[fnordius]

I consider most sites quite dubious until right before the draft. Some of them are changed mere hours before the draft happens. What they're saying now I don't take seriously at all.

 

[bajaden]

I consider most sites quite dubious until right before the draft. Some of them are changed mere hours before the draft happens. What they're saying now I don't take seriously at all.

Yeah, I agree with you. If you look at all the different draft boards, there's a tremendous disparity between them. You'll have a player ranked in the first round on one board and not even on another board. I will admit to suscribing to a scouting service, and I'm amazed how much different it is from some of the internet boards. In some ways I hate to look at them during the season, because its hard not to be influenced by what you read. I prefer to come to my own conclusions and then read them after doing so.

 

[fnordius]

Afterthought: I'd also add that the first few picks are usually quite easy. After that, guesses quickly deteriorate, and by the 12th pick or so, all bets are off. Just because draftexpress got our 4th pick right doesn't mean they'd get it right for a 6th or 7th pick. If you look back over earlier years (when we didn't have top 5 picks) you'll see that they usually guessed wrong.

 

[Gilles]

NBADRAFT.NET: last few years their mock was always a meaningless mess until a few hours before the draft and then suddenly they would arrange picks in almost exact order. At the top 20 at least until the first falling guy what will move other guys around.
DRAFTEXPRESS.COM: it seems these guys don't have deep enough sources because they usually don't have drastic changes around draft time. Though I think they are slowly improving their source base.
It's easier to arrange the top of the draft because after that people are falling, some late workouts weigh in. Move a couple of guys and other are shifting too.

 

[Arco Arena]

If we could see a magical list that showed exactly what player each team would want with their pick this far from the draft, it would probably jump around just as much as the lists on those draft websites.

There are variables such as interviews, workouts, physicals, trades, who's left on the board, etc. that shape who teams pick.

It's a bit snobby to rip draft sites for not know exactly what a team is/will be thinking...especially this far from the draft. They do the best they can with the sources they have, and usually they do a pretty good job finding out what teams are thinking as those variables are slowly filled in.

 

[Heuge]

Best case. larry Hughes...Idiots!

 

[Capt. Factorial]

It's a bit snobby to rip draft sites for not know exactly what a team is/will be thinking...especially this far from the draft. They do the best they can with the sources they have, and usually they do a pretty good job finding out what teams are thinking as those variables are slowly filled in.

At this point, most draft sites don't take into account the team that's picking, they just have an ordered list of 1-60. After the lottery they'll start looking at team needs.

 

[bajaden]

If we could see a magical list that showed exactly what player each team would want with their pick this far from the draft, it would probably jump around just as much as the lists on those draft websites.

There are variables such as interviews, workouts, physicals, trades, who's left on the board, etc. that shape who teams pick.

It's a bit snobby to rip draft sites for not know exactly what a team is/will be thinking...especially this far from the draft. They do the best they can with the sources they have, and usually they do a pretty good job finding out what teams are thinking as those variables are slowly filled in.

I don't think that anyone is ripping the draftsites. Were just telling the truth. Which is, at this time of the year your not going to get a very accurate picture of where each player is going and when. We don't even know for sure whose going to declare, or what order the teams are picking in.

Some sites are better than others because they do more homework. But until you have all the information, its impossible to predict much of anything.

 

[TheRaven]

At this point, most draft sites don't take into account the team that's picking, they just have an ordered list of 1-60. After the lottery they'll start looking at team needs.

Correct. Draft boards and mocks will change significantly between now and the draft, they are just rough guesses as to where a prospects stock may be at right now.

DRAFTEXPRESS.COM: it seems these guys don't have deep enough sources because they usually don't have drastic changes around draft time. Though I think they are slowly improving their source base.

I have to disagree with you there. A couple years ago when we drafted Jason Thompson, they were the only draft site to put him into the top half of the draft. Most other draft sites had him as a late 1st or even in the 2nd round. Draftexpress slid him up significantly in the 1st all the way up into the lottery with their final mock on draft day because they had sources telling them that he wouldn't make it past the Warriors. They also don't make all that many changes because they generally have a good feel for where guys will go by the time the draft rolls around. They have made a lot of contacts around the league.

Draftexpress is really the only basketball scouting site I trust. They break down prospects in-depth with both subjective and statistical analysis. They are the only ones that actually travel around to watch domestic AND international games to see prospects in person. This is important not just because of getting an in-person look, but because they also have made a lot of contacts with scouts and coaches/GMs around the world to help them better gauge where a prospect's stock is at. They follow prospects from high school through their college career so they can talk about how a player's game has changed over time and how likely it may be for them to continue to get better. They are wrong about prospects at times like anyone who breaks down the draft, but to me they are the only ones that put in enough work to be trustworthy.