A look at Hawes competition:

BawLa said:
Hawes not rebounding well in college is more indicative of him only being in college for one year, than it is indicative of his future career in rebounding. He was 19 when we drafted him?

The killer instinct should come from our PF IMO, or whomever we pair with Hawes.

He can't get physical until he gains more weight.


The fact that he is obviously underweight, and still manages to put up decent numbers when he gets starter type minutes in his rookie campaign and even with all of the other rebounding problems is surprising to me. As a starting Center this year: 7.6 rebs in 33.1 min/game. That equates to a 9.2 rebs/40 min. So all of these people who think that he will average 8 rebs in 2 or 3 years need to wake up. He has the potential to do it next year, and I think he will if he gets starter-type minutes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/splits?playerId=3211
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As a big proponent of Hawes, I've been estimating 8 rebs a game, which I don't think is bad. The reason I'm conservative and don't interpret the numbers like you do at 9 rebs/game is that I don't think players put out as much energy/minute if they play 40 minutes/game for 82 games than if they are coming off the bench. Therefore, I'm not sure, he'll get up to an average of 9 rebs/game for an 82 game season. If he does, great, he'll be even better than I thought.
 
My whole intent when I started this thread was to find a measureing stick for Hawes. If your a heavyweight boxer, how good you are is determined by who you have to fight and how you fare in those fights.

If you remove two of the top rebounders because their actually PF's, and realize that Shaq and Camby are nearing the end of their careers,and if Hawes would even average 8 boards a game he would probably be in the top 4th of the league for centers.. Now if you want to compare him to centers of the past, or to your own expectations at that position thats another story.

I guess I'm trying to say that 8 boards a game would be acceptable. However that won't solve the rebounding problem for the Kings. Miller averaged over 9 boards a game this year and we still sucked at rebounding. Now if we were to play Hawes with Miller at the same time, we might see some improvement. It worked with Valde and Miller. Well I'm mixing apples and oranges here so I'll shut up.
 
bajaden said:
If you remove two of the top rebounders because their actually PF's, and realize that Shaq and Camby are nearing the end of their careers,and if Hawes would even average 8 boards a game he would probably be in the top 4th of the league for centers.. Now if you want to compare him to centers of the past, or to your own expectations at that position thats another story.
Click to expand...

Sigh. Why do people insist, and I mean just stubbornly kicking/screaming insist on using "per game" averages rather than per minute averages when comparing players? Grabbing 8 rebs a game in 36 min (for instance) is not in the top 4th of centers. Or even the top half. Its just playing a lot of minutes.

Now that said, I think somewhere around that productivty is where the cutoff point is --- if he can reach it, we can live with it if he is good enough on offense. But just being on the floor for so long that rebounds fall in your hands does not make you a good rebounder. Mikki would average about 8 a game if you left him out there 40minutes too. Does not make him any better or any worse of a rebounder than the guy he is now getting 6 rebs in 30 min.
 
PurpleHaze said:
I've heard Coach Theus say on more that one occasion recently that part of the Kings off-season strategy is to try and move up in the draft if possible.
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If pigs could fly... I'll believe it when I see it. If I do see it, I'll be jumping to the moon.
 
fnordius said:
Here's centers' rebounding stats per 48. Ignoring Shaq, Camby and guys who are really forwards doesn't help too much.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stati...g=48&qual=true&season=2008&seasontype=2&pos=c
Click to expand...

Thanks for the link. I don't see Yao on that list. His rebs/game this year were 10.8. Interesting thing about the top 20 - there are many names on there that aren't exactly All-Star caliber: Foster, Dampier, Diop, Mohammed, Petro, Bogut. Humphries. So maybe rebounding isn't as important as you would think...
 
Bricklayer said:
Sigh. Why do people insist, and I mean just stubbornly kicking/screaming insist on using "per game" averages rather than per minute averages when comparing players? Grabbing 8 rebs a game in 36 min (for instance) is not in the top 4th of centers. Or even the top half. Its just playing a lot of minutes.

Now that said, I think somewhere around that productivty is where the cutoff point is --- if he can reach it, we can live with it if he is good enough on offense. But just being on the floor for so long that rebounds fall in your hands does not make you a good rebounder. Mikki would average about 8 a game if you left him out there 40minutes too. Does not make him any better or any worse of a rebounder than the guy he is now getting 6 rebs in 30 min.
Click to expand...

I agree with you, but unfortunately in the world we live, people get caught up in how many rebounds you got in a game without seeing how many minutes you played to get them. The same could be said of scorers. I would much rather have a player that scores 20 pts a game on 10 shots or less than a player that scores 26pts a game while taking 23 shots. Truth is most people don't look at how many shots he took.
I'm not sure your right about Mikki though. Maybe 4 or 5 rebounds a game in 40 minutes.
 
Mikki gets 8.3 rebounds per 40. Hard to believe, I know... but even Lorenzen Wright gets 7.8...
 
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fnordius said:
Mikki gets 8.3 rebounds per 40. Hard to believe, I know... but even Lorenzen Wright gets 7.8...
Click to expand...

Be still my heart...

I do think that stats don't always give the whole picture. For instance, I think its hard to use 12 minutes as an accurate prediction of what a player would do with 30 minutes a game. I think that if a player plays enough minutes to get into the flow of the game, not only physically, but mentaly, his production per minute will go up. Not in all cases, as is noted in the Collins brothers. I haven't done the research, so I could be dead wrong.
 
bajaden said:
I think that if a player plays enough minutes to get into the flow of the game, not only physically, but mentaly, his production per minute will go up. Not in all cases, as is noted in the Collins brothers. I haven't done the research, so I could be dead wrong.
Click to expand...

I looked into that a while back, and you're right. Conventional wisdom is that more minutes means a tired player and less playing against scrubs in garbage time, dropping per minute stats. But that turns out to be false. A few will have their stats stay level, somewhat more will have their stats drop, and the largest group will have their per minute stats increase. Salmons is just an extreme example of what is apparently normal behavior on the part of NBA players.

So I won't say there's no chance of improved rebounds per minute, there definitely is. Or they could get worse, but let's hope not.
 
fnordius said:
I looked into that a while back, and you're right. Conventional wisdom is that more minutes means a tired player and less playing against scrubs in garbage time, dropping per minute stats. But that turns out to be false. A few will have their stats stay level, somewhat more will have their stats drop, and the largest group will have their per minute stats increase. Salmons is just an extreme example of what is apparently normal behavior on the part of NBA players.

So I won't say there's no chance of improved rebounds per minute, there definitely is. Or they could get worse, but let's hope not.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the feedback. I personaly never played basketball at a high level. I tried, but everytime I tried to take a shot some big tall guy would have his hand on the ball. I did play baseball at a high level and the hardest thing for me was to pinch hit. It was very hard to get my head into the game. It was an involuntary thing. Not the same as basketball, I know, but there are probably similarities.
 
fnordius said:
Here's a thought...

Theus has implied that he wants a roster which is imposingly big and/or athletic. We're a long way from that goal now, but if they get around to a rebuild at some point, anything's possible, right?

Assuming that Hawes is going to be part of the picture for a long time, and assuming that he'll never be jumping over Dwight Howard or knocking down Shaq, does anyone think he might be able to develop sufficient speed to be an oversized PF? The idea of him playing in tandem with someone like Thabeet (assuming he lives up to hopes, rather than fears) is intriguing to me. It sounds kind of un-Kings, and extremely un-Geoff, but when the competition include pairings like Bynum-Gasol, it's hard to think of how we'd play "smashmouth" basketball against them otherwise.

I don't want this to degenerate into a discussion on whether or not Thabeet is a good draft choice, I just picked him as an example of the type. Substitute the big, scary, defensively competent center of your choice.

Does anyone think this sounds like an interesting idea?
Click to expand...

Some power forwards he could match up with defensively, others not. That's why it's probably not useful to put him in a box of center or power forward. Gasol averages 8.5 rebs a game, not great. But he's a heck of a player. Is Gasol a center or a power forward? To me, he's a tweener, but an excellent tweener to have.
 
Kingster said:
Thanks for the link. I don't see Yao on that list. His rebs/game this year were 10.8. Interesting thing about the top 20 - there are many names on there that aren't exactly All-Star caliber: Foster, Dampier, Diop, Mohammed, Petro, Bogut. Humphries. So maybe rebounding isn't as important as you would think...
Click to expand...
There's not that many centers in the league. The top 20 includes average and below average centers.

Here's the link that includes all players, not just ones with enough minutes or games. It has Yao (13.9 per 48):

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stati...=48&qual=false&pos=c&season=2008&seasontype=2

Being outside the top 50 in rebounding among centers is not so good.
 
diggining said:
I don't think that's a very meaningful statistic when we include players who only played 5 minutes all season.
Click to expand...


That's always a very hollow critique of per 48 numbers -- there are maybe 10 guys on the list like that, and they are actually as often as not at the bottom of the list (i.e. below a guy like Hawes -- hence the 5 minutes all year).

You figure Hawes is 61st out of 100 guys ranked. And that's about right for what we saw from Spencer this year. He averaged 11.9 rebs/48, and 12.0/48 is about the acceptable cutoff point for centers, where you go from being weak, to being problematic. By the time you hit 11.0/48 you are down into Rasho Nesterovic/Raef Lafrentz country. So Spencer was about the 40th percentile, and in the "just good enough" category. Weak, but not disastrous. And those per 48 numebrs rarely lie. About the level Brad Miller was a couple of years ago when we first started really complaining about his boardwork (this year Brad was at a respectable 13.0, 44th amongst centers).
 
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Bricklayer said:
That's always a very hollow critique of per 48 numbers -- there are maybe 10 guys on the list like that, and they are actually as often as not at the bottom of the list (i.e. below a guy like Hawes -- hence the 5 minutes all year).

You figure Hawes is 61st out of 100 guys ranked. And that's about right for what we saw from Spencer this year. He averaged 11.9 rebs/48, and 12.0/48 is about the acceptable cutoff point for centers, where you go from being weak, to being problematic. By the time you hit 11.0/48 you are down into Rasho Nesterovic/Raef Lafrentz country. So Spencer was about the 40th percentile, and in the "just good enough" category. Weak, but not disastrous. And those per 48 numebrs rarely lie. About the level Brad Miller was a couple of years ago when we first started really complaining about his boardwork (this year Brad was at a respectable 13.0, 44th amongst centers).
Click to expand...

I agree that rbs/48 min can be a meaningful statistic. What I disagree with is the idea that 61/100 out of all listed centers tells us anything meaningful. (If anything, even 30th out of 35 qualified centers is a better measure. We avoid the small samples problem, and really what we're interested in anyway is his rebounding ability relative to other centers in the NBA that are good enough to be a part of a team's rotation.)
uolj said:
Besides, that statistic doesn't include players who only played 5 minutes all season long.
Click to expand...
Jerome James?
 
diggining said:
I agree that rbs/48 min can be a meaningful statistic. What I disagree with is the idea that 61/100 out of all listed centers tells us anything meaningful. (If anything, even 30th out of 35 qualified centers is a better measure. We avoid the small samples problem, and really what we're interested in anyway is his rebounding ability relative to other centers in the NBA that are good enough to be a part of a team's rotation.)
Click to expand...
I said top 50. Hawes is #61 on the list, but there are ten guys (or less) you can ignore because of lack of playing time, including Jerome James. There are at least 50 centers that were better rebounders and had enough playing time to not ignore that fact.

So... being outside the top 50 in rebounding among centers is not so good. I'm not sure why you're arguing.
 
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