2013 Draft Prospects
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bajaden
Hall of Famer
Yep, he was better than I thought he would be. He has a good skill level and knows how to use his body in the post. He certainly takes up space.
L
LWP777
Guest
I usually come to this thread later than 21 games into the season to see what baja has to say about the draft. How depressing that we are already looking ahead to the draft!
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Its a little early to get too excited over any player just yet, but there are some nice looking prospects out there. Especially at the top of the leader board. Maybe, just maybe we'll get lucky and get the first pick in the draft for once. Not sure yet just who I'd take, but Noel and Muhammad would certainly be in the mix. My problem right now, is that a lot of the players I really like, probably wouldn't go top 5, maybe not even top 10.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Greg Whittington: I've seen him play 3 times already this year, and I've been impressed with him so far. He's Otto Porter's running mate at Gerogetown. Like Porter, he's a sophmore, and a 6'8" Sf. Despite both being SF's, they're often on the floor together and play off each other very well. Whittington is the better athlete of the two, but Porter is the more skilled of the two. Their stats are almost clones of one another. Whittington is averaging 12.5 PPG to Porters 12.9 PPG, and Whittington is averaging 7.7 RPG to Porters 7.1 rebounds. The biggest difference is in assists where Porter is averaging 3.2 APG, to Whittington's 2.1 assists.
Right now, Porter is the better overall shooter averaging 51% overall and 36.8% from the three, to Whittington's 45% overall and under 30% shooting from the three. Where Whittington takes the lead is on the defensive side of the ball. He's a better overall defender than Porter, and much of it is due to his superior athleticism. Not that Porter doesn't put out the effort. Players tend to stay at Georgetown for the full four years, so its possible neither of these guys will enter the draft. If I had to bet on one, it would be Porter, whose father was an NBA player as well. Both are players to keep your eye on.
Right now, Porter is the better overall shooter averaging 51% overall and 36.8% from the three, to Whittington's 45% overall and under 30% shooting from the three. Where Whittington takes the lead is on the defensive side of the ball. He's a better overall defender than Porter, and much of it is due to his superior athleticism. Not that Porter doesn't put out the effort. Players tend to stay at Georgetown for the full four years, so its possible neither of these guys will enter the draft. If I had to bet on one, it would be Porter, whose father was an NBA player as well. Both are players to keep your eye on.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Michael Carter-Williams: Since his name has been brought up lately, I thought I'd give my thoughts on him. Williams is an interesting player in that many thought of him as a SG, but this year he's broken out as a PG, and maybe, the best PG in all of college. So far this year he's averaging 10.8 assists a game. And he's making it look easy. I have to be honest, I'm not a big fan of Syracuse basketball. It tends to be boring, and trying to judge whether any of their players can play defense seriously takes a crystal ball, since they always play the same zone defense.
Syracuse is a team with players that can score the ball, so thats to Williams advantage when it comes to getting assists. But you have to give him his due. He finds the open man and gets the ball where its susposed to be. So this year, I'm having fun watching Syracuse basketball, and all because of Williams. The most interesting stat about Williams is that he's 6'6", which is great height for a PG. Along with his 10.8 assists, he's also averaging 12.3 PPG, and 5.2 RPG. His overall shooting is down this year (he's a sophmore) at 42.1%, and only 23.3% from the three. But last season he shot 38.9% from the three, so I expect his averages will start to climb a bit as the season goes on.
As I said, its hard to get a read on the defensive abilities of a Syracuse player, but if I had to bet, I'd bet on Williams being pretty good. Even in the zone, he's aggressive on whose ever in his area, and he's averaging 3.7 steals a game, which if very good. I admit, that every time I watch this kid, I envision him on the floor next to Tyreke. Oh well, just a little dream of mine that will probably never come true.
Syracuse is a team with players that can score the ball, so thats to Williams advantage when it comes to getting assists. But you have to give him his due. He finds the open man and gets the ball where its susposed to be. So this year, I'm having fun watching Syracuse basketball, and all because of Williams. The most interesting stat about Williams is that he's 6'6", which is great height for a PG. Along with his 10.8 assists, he's also averaging 12.3 PPG, and 5.2 RPG. His overall shooting is down this year (he's a sophmore) at 42.1%, and only 23.3% from the three. But last season he shot 38.9% from the three, so I expect his averages will start to climb a bit as the season goes on.
As I said, its hard to get a read on the defensive abilities of a Syracuse player, but if I had to bet, I'd bet on Williams being pretty good. Even in the zone, he's aggressive on whose ever in his area, and he's averaging 3.7 steals a game, which if very good. I admit, that every time I watch this kid, I envision him on the floor next to Tyreke. Oh well, just a little dream of mine that will probably never come true.
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bajaden
Hall of Famer
Jeff Withey: 6'11.5", 235 Lb center:
I really like Withey. I won't blow smoke up anyone's you know what about Withey's offense. I think he can be decent at worse at the next level. He has improved offensively by adding a jumper from the top of the key if left open. He has a nice touch on the ball and is a good freethrow shooter as well. But most of what scoring he'll do will come in the post. His post game is a bit methodical, and at time appears slow, but he's fairly effective with a hook shot with either hand. He's pretty effective if allowed to set up close to the basket. I doubt he'll ever be a 2nd, 3rd or even a 4th option on offense, but you do have to guard him, and I think with added strength, he could be even more effective.. The encouraging part is that he's improved every year.
What sets Withey apart is the defensive side of the ball. He's an excellent shotblocker with great instinctive timing. He's averaging 5 blocks a game this year, and god knows how many shots he changes, or completely discourages. Where he doesn't get enough credit is in man defense. Once again, I think with added lower body strength, he could improve in this area as well. But he's very good right now. He's also a good help defender and shotblocker. I've seen many times where he'll get caught in a switch and end up guarding smaller, quicker player, who will beat him off the dribble only to have his shot blocked from behind by Withey. Withey isn't a bad rebounder either, averaging 8.3 boards a game. Overall he's playing 28.8 minutes a game, averaging 14.1 points per game, while shooting a very nice 57.3% overall.
How all this will translate to the next level is always a challenge to judge. I think if a team is looking for a center to guard the basket, they shouldn't look much farther than Withey. At worse, he'll be an excellent backup center, but he might be able to start for some teams with time and experience. As thin and undersized as the Kings are in the frontcourt, I would think that Withey would be a welcome addition.
[video=youtube_share;0Ms9GCJH1cM]http://youtu.be/0Ms9GCJH1cM[/video]
I really like Withey. I won't blow smoke up anyone's you know what about Withey's offense. I think he can be decent at worse at the next level. He has improved offensively by adding a jumper from the top of the key if left open. He has a nice touch on the ball and is a good freethrow shooter as well. But most of what scoring he'll do will come in the post. His post game is a bit methodical, and at time appears slow, but he's fairly effective with a hook shot with either hand. He's pretty effective if allowed to set up close to the basket. I doubt he'll ever be a 2nd, 3rd or even a 4th option on offense, but you do have to guard him, and I think with added strength, he could be even more effective.. The encouraging part is that he's improved every year.
What sets Withey apart is the defensive side of the ball. He's an excellent shotblocker with great instinctive timing. He's averaging 5 blocks a game this year, and god knows how many shots he changes, or completely discourages. Where he doesn't get enough credit is in man defense. Once again, I think with added lower body strength, he could improve in this area as well. But he's very good right now. He's also a good help defender and shotblocker. I've seen many times where he'll get caught in a switch and end up guarding smaller, quicker player, who will beat him off the dribble only to have his shot blocked from behind by Withey. Withey isn't a bad rebounder either, averaging 8.3 boards a game. Overall he's playing 28.8 minutes a game, averaging 14.1 points per game, while shooting a very nice 57.3% overall.
How all this will translate to the next level is always a challenge to judge. I think if a team is looking for a center to guard the basket, they shouldn't look much farther than Withey. At worse, he'll be an excellent backup center, but he might be able to start for some teams with time and experience. As thin and undersized as the Kings are in the frontcourt, I would think that Withey would be a welcome addition.
[video=youtube_share;0Ms9GCJH1cM]http://youtu.be/0Ms9GCJH1cM[/video]
He's been an interesting prospect to watch this year, but I don't trust Syracuse guards as far as I can throw them. Which isn't all that far. Between the utter failures Wes johnson and Flynn have been and waiting to see if Waiters develops, I wouldn't take another Syracuse guard high in the lottery
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He's not an impact player unless you talk about some B-rate league. Why would team assist his development, when the moment he becomes an impact player, he's out the door. They want to get a couple of good years out of their work.
P.S. The main reason though is he changed teams mid-season nad there weren't many options.
Don't particurlarly like this year's center class, at least so far. No impact NBA defenders and not a lot of athleticism among those who tries to defend.
Carter-Williams is an interesting prospect. He indeed transitioned from SG to PG and so far the experiment has a lot of success (looking at boxscores it was a tremendous success but their schedule so far was a real cupcake). He penetrated with ease and collapsing defense allowed him to showcase outstanding court vision. Recent Temple game showed his biggest problem - they didn't collapse on him and dared him to finish, which he with his complete lack of mid-range game and incompetence around the rim failed miserably. I would say MCW is thinner Harden who can't finish at the rim, which makes him really vulnerable offensively.
Defensively he has Waiters' last year role in Syracuse zone and he does it well. With his length and quickness he's better suited to guard PGs than SGs where his lack of bulk and strength hurts him a bit.
Otto Porter is the ultimate role player. Only difference in their body types stops Shane Battier from being the perfect comparison. Another decent comparison is a former Hoya Jeff Green with the main difference that Green plays a "bad" SF/PF combo, while Porter is a true SF. The only thing I don't like about him is his FT shooting that suggests his 3pt one might be and aberration, though I must admit a few of his attempts I saw this year were good set shots.
Still for SF I like Alex Poythress more, mainly due to elite athleticism and versatility that allows him to guard everybody from jumpshooting guards to faceup PFs. He's a good off-the-ball player offensively. Alex is transitioning from PF and lacks in skill department which is always a concern - he's just not used to play on the perimeter.
This year might be a good one to keep your second-rounder. Draft seems to lack franchise-changing prospects but when you get outside of top-5 you can find as good a pick as any other draft and this year there's good depth. Especially for 3&D swingman types.
Travis Releford (Kansas) and Reggie Bullock (UNC) once were considered elite talents. Beyond 3&D they both pass really well which is always a plus.
Another solid player of this type is Victor Oladipo (Indiana). He's still a junior, so it's certainly not a given that he comes out. But Cody Zeller will enter the draft, Hulls and Watford are seniors so with the deep Tourney run there might be nothing left for Oladipo to prove as Indiana will certainly be lucky to even get into the Tourney next year.
Carter-Williams is an interesting prospect. He indeed transitioned from SG to PG and so far the experiment has a lot of success (looking at boxscores it was a tremendous success but their schedule so far was a real cupcake). He penetrated with ease and collapsing defense allowed him to showcase outstanding court vision. Recent Temple game showed his biggest problem - they didn't collapse on him and dared him to finish, which he with his complete lack of mid-range game and incompetence around the rim failed miserably. I would say MCW is thinner Harden who can't finish at the rim, which makes him really vulnerable offensively.
Defensively he has Waiters' last year role in Syracuse zone and he does it well. With his length and quickness he's better suited to guard PGs than SGs where his lack of bulk and strength hurts him a bit.
Otto Porter is the ultimate role player. Only difference in their body types stops Shane Battier from being the perfect comparison. Another decent comparison is a former Hoya Jeff Green with the main difference that Green plays a "bad" SF/PF combo, while Porter is a true SF. The only thing I don't like about him is his FT shooting that suggests his 3pt one might be and aberration, though I must admit a few of his attempts I saw this year were good set shots.
Still for SF I like Alex Poythress more, mainly due to elite athleticism and versatility that allows him to guard everybody from jumpshooting guards to faceup PFs. He's a good off-the-ball player offensively. Alex is transitioning from PF and lacks in skill department which is always a concern - he's just not used to play on the perimeter.
This year might be a good one to keep your second-rounder. Draft seems to lack franchise-changing prospects but when you get outside of top-5 you can find as good a pick as any other draft and this year there's good depth. Especially for 3&D swingman types.
Travis Releford (Kansas) and Reggie Bullock (UNC) once were considered elite talents. Beyond 3&D they both pass really well which is always a plus.
Another solid player of this type is Victor Oladipo (Indiana). He's still a junior, so it's certainly not a given that he comes out. But Cody Zeller will enter the draft, Hulls and Watford are seniors so with the deep Tourney run there might be nothing left for Oladipo to prove as Indiana will certainly be lucky to even get into the Tourney next year.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
So you don't think that Nerlens Noel, Willie Cauley-Stein, or Gorgui Dieng are good athletes? Or that any of them are impact defenders? While I give you that Jeff Withey is not an elite athlete, the dude impacts every game he's in. I agree with you on Otto Porter and Alex Poythress, and between the two, I would take Poythress, although right now, Porter is the better player. If Poythress wakes up and realizes how good he is, your looking at a potential star. Another kid I really like, although he probably won't declare for the draft, and I'm going against my inclination not to get too excited about Syracuse players, is C. J. Fair. Very good athlete, who has improved every year, and who is shooting the ball extremely well this year. If he can continue to shoot like that, he can be a very good SF in the NBA.
I do like Oladipo, and I'm only luke warm on Zeller. I know he gets a lot of national press, but I question that everything he brings will translate to the NBA. I've seen him play quite a bit, and he is talented, he just doesn't blow my socks off. I've been disapointed so far in McAdoo from North Carolina. I expect his stock to drop if he continues to play the same way. I like DeShaun Thomas from Ohio St. but he needs to bring his shooting average up. Another kid I like is Anthony Bennett from UNLV. He's undersized for the PF position, but the kid can play, and I'd take him over McAdoo in a heartbeat.
I don't know how many of you have seen Matthew Dellavedova the 6'4" PG from St. Marys play, but the dude can ball. So goes Dellavedova, so goes St. Marys. Not only is he a totally unselfish player, who is excellent at setting up his teammates, he's a very good shooter. He doesn't get a lot of national press, but if he played for UCLA, everyone would know who he is.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I kind of like Dieng. He just came back from an injury, so well see how he performs the rest of the season. His impact is going to be on the defensive side of the ball. He's a good shotblocker. Not in the same catagory as Noel and Withey, but he can play both center and PF. He's a good athlete who just quietly goes about his business on the floor. I don't see him as a star, but I could see him eventually starting at PF or center on a team that needs some defensive presence, but has someone that can score the ball at the other position.
I assume, Kings get 7th-10th pick.
In that area Kings should probably first look at and compare Otto Porter and Poythress first. Porter might lack athleticism and you probably look at Prince with very good rebounding which actually means he can handle physical contact very well. Poythress is a rich man's James Johnson as a prospect - better shooting, quicker with the rest of athleticism on par, knows how to be a roleplayer but a worse distributor and ballhandler.
Carter Williams has serious problems finishing inside and that's in college, but he's perimeter spot shooting is underrated I think though off the bounce one is as bad as percentages suggest.
Muhammad, Noel, Len and McLemore should be gone. Don't like any of Bennett, Zeller or Austin - mainly scorers.
In that area Kings should probably first look at and compare Otto Porter and Poythress first. Porter might lack athleticism and you probably look at Prince with very good rebounding which actually means he can handle physical contact very well. Poythress is a rich man's James Johnson as a prospect - better shooting, quicker with the rest of athleticism on par, knows how to be a roleplayer but a worse distributor and ballhandler.
Carter Williams has serious problems finishing inside and that's in college, but he's perimeter spot shooting is underrated I think though off the bounce one is as bad as percentages suggest.
Muhammad, Noel, Len and McLemore should be gone. Don't like any of Bennett, Zeller or Austin - mainly scorers.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
I'm not Giles or Baja but I have the biggest basketball crush on Withey. Great instincts and one of the best shotblockers ever at the college level.
I don't know if I'd consider Bennett mainly a scorer - he's a very active player, appears to have a great wingspan, and uses both his body and his smarts on D. He's also got super-glue hands on rebounds in the same way that Webber did. I was impressed. The problem with Bennett is that he's probably pushing 6'7", and for a post player in the NBA that's going to be a rough go. Not impossible to stick i the league, but I think it will be tough for him to be a star at his size.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
Thanks, Tesujin. When you say great instincts, what exactly are referring to? To anticipate on shot blocking?
How is his offensive game?
Kingster
Hall of Famer
I saw Porter play against UCLA and was impressed. Seemed like a mature, high IQ kind of guy.
Withey is weak for a center and not quick enough for PF. Dalembert was slow for PF spot, Withey is very slow.
Knowing that Kings have a glut at PG, still would look at Trey Burke. Might be the best PG prospect since Paul/Williams. Just a complete guard - can pass and score in any number of ways.
Knowing that Kings have a glut at PG, still would look at Trey Burke. Might be the best PG prospect since Paul/Williams. Just a complete guard - can pass and score in any number of ways.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Its hard to say without knowing where we'd be picking. But as Gilles says, if were picking down around 7 or 8, or even a little lower, then I have to remove Muhammad, Noel, and McLemore off my list. I'm not totally sold on Len yet, but he's been better than advertized so far. I know most boards had Cody Zeller ranked very high, but I just can't get excited about him. I think he might be one of those guys thats a good college player, but is just so so in the Pro's. You saw what Cuz did to his brother the other night.
My first choice would be Poythress. Very good athlete, with good BBIQ. His handle is a little weak, but not horrible. He has an NBA body, and is a good shooter. The handle can be improved. He's a SF in the NBA that could play a little PF as well. I also like his running mate Goodwin, who is a smaller version of Michael Gilchrist. He's not quite at that level, but he's a terrific athlete, who is extremely dangerous in the open court. Needs to improve his outside shot.
My second choice for a SF is Otto Porter. He's not the athlete that Poythress is, but he's highly skilled, and once again he has high BBIQ in spades. Good shooter, good rebounder, good passer, and unselfish. Great team player. Unlike Gilles, I really like Withey. He's added 20 pounds of muscle, and he's certainly athletic enough to block close to 5 shots a game. He'll never be an offensive player to any extent, but he has developed a nice little jumper from the top of the key, and has a hook shot with either hand. His rebounding is better this year as well. I also like Bennett, who at the moment, looks like the best PF in the draft. He may only be 6'7", but he playes much bigger than that. Lets remember that Barkley was only around 6'5", and he was unstoppable in the NBA at the PF position.
My favorite PG, believe it or not, is Matthew Dellavedova from St. Marys. I think the kids terrific. He's a very good distributer and a very good shooter, so you can't just leave him. He's also a very good defender. At 6'4" and 170 pounds, he needs to add some muscle, but I'll be surprised if he can't make it in the NBA. After him, I really like Phil Pressey from Missouri. He's just a tough kid that knows how to win. However, I doubt we'll be drafting another PG. We seem to have them in abundance.
I like Gorgui Dieng, but 7 or 8th is probably too high for him. He's a good athlete, and a good post defender with shotblocking ability. Finally, I have to beat the drum for Willie Cauley-Stein, who by the time the season ends, might not be a reach at 7 or 8. And, lest we forget, there's Tony Mitchell from North Texas. He's 6'8", but is a terrific athlete, that is a natural shotblocker. However his skill level is still on the raw side, so after Robinson this past draft, I doubt we'd go in that direction again.
My first choice would be Poythress. Very good athlete, with good BBIQ. His handle is a little weak, but not horrible. He has an NBA body, and is a good shooter. The handle can be improved. He's a SF in the NBA that could play a little PF as well. I also like his running mate Goodwin, who is a smaller version of Michael Gilchrist. He's not quite at that level, but he's a terrific athlete, who is extremely dangerous in the open court. Needs to improve his outside shot.
My second choice for a SF is Otto Porter. He's not the athlete that Poythress is, but he's highly skilled, and once again he has high BBIQ in spades. Good shooter, good rebounder, good passer, and unselfish. Great team player. Unlike Gilles, I really like Withey. He's added 20 pounds of muscle, and he's certainly athletic enough to block close to 5 shots a game. He'll never be an offensive player to any extent, but he has developed a nice little jumper from the top of the key, and has a hook shot with either hand. His rebounding is better this year as well. I also like Bennett, who at the moment, looks like the best PF in the draft. He may only be 6'7", but he playes much bigger than that. Lets remember that Barkley was only around 6'5", and he was unstoppable in the NBA at the PF position.
My favorite PG, believe it or not, is Matthew Dellavedova from St. Marys. I think the kids terrific. He's a very good distributer and a very good shooter, so you can't just leave him. He's also a very good defender. At 6'4" and 170 pounds, he needs to add some muscle, but I'll be surprised if he can't make it in the NBA. After him, I really like Phil Pressey from Missouri. He's just a tough kid that knows how to win. However, I doubt we'll be drafting another PG. We seem to have them in abundance.
I like Gorgui Dieng, but 7 or 8th is probably too high for him. He's a good athlete, and a good post defender with shotblocking ability. Finally, I have to beat the drum for Willie Cauley-Stein, who by the time the season ends, might not be a reach at 7 or 8. And, lest we forget, there's Tony Mitchell from North Texas. He's 6'8", but is a terrific athlete, that is a natural shotblocker. However his skill level is still on the raw side, so after Robinson this past draft, I doubt we'd go in that direction again.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Mike Muscala: 6'11", 234 Lb, Center/PF, Bucknell
I happened to catch the Bucknell/Missouri game. My intent was to get another look at Missouri. I really like Phil Pressey their PG, and I'm interested in Alex Oriakhi, Missouri's 6'9" PF/Center. What I didn't expect was Mike Muscala the center for Bucknell. Oriakhi is a known defensive player with shotblocking ability. Thus my interest. Muscala litteraly destroyed him. It was a man amongst boys. Oriakhi had no answer for Muscala. Muscala laid 25 points, 14 rebounds, 2 blocked shots, and 4 assists on Oriakhi, and anyone else that tried to stop him. He almost singlehandedly won the game, which would have been a huge upset. Missouri managed to pull it out 66 to 64.
With my interest peaked, I went an looked up Muscala's stats for the year to see if this was just a one game abberation. Turns out its not. For the year he's averaging 18.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.5 BPG, and 2.6 APG. He appears to be a very good athlete with a good skill set. I won't pass judgement after just one game, but he was going up against one of the top ranked teams in the nation, and against a top defensive player. He is a senior, so he will be draft eligible following this season. Obviously, I plan on catching every Bucknell game thats televised this year, which probably won't be that many. But you heard it here first, keep you eye on Muscala. Diamonds are where you find them, and not always where you plan on looking.
I happened to catch the Bucknell/Missouri game. My intent was to get another look at Missouri. I really like Phil Pressey their PG, and I'm interested in Alex Oriakhi, Missouri's 6'9" PF/Center. What I didn't expect was Mike Muscala the center for Bucknell. Oriakhi is a known defensive player with shotblocking ability. Thus my interest. Muscala litteraly destroyed him. It was a man amongst boys. Oriakhi had no answer for Muscala. Muscala laid 25 points, 14 rebounds, 2 blocked shots, and 4 assists on Oriakhi, and anyone else that tried to stop him. He almost singlehandedly won the game, which would have been a huge upset. Missouri managed to pull it out 66 to 64.
With my interest peaked, I went an looked up Muscala's stats for the year to see if this was just a one game abberation. Turns out its not. For the year he's averaging 18.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.5 BPG, and 2.6 APG. He appears to be a very good athlete with a good skill set. I won't pass judgement after just one game, but he was going up against one of the top ranked teams in the nation, and against a top defensive player. He is a senior, so he will be draft eligible following this season. Obviously, I plan on catching every Bucknell game thats televised this year, which probably won't be that many. But you heard it here first, keep you eye on Muscala. Diamonds are where you find them, and not always where you plan on looking.
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
Just did my preliminary analysis of possible 2013 draft prospects. This is a center heavy class--I project to have eight centers drafted in the first round. But the thing about this class is that there's just no consensus on who's the best prospect--there's no Anthony Davis or Kyrie Irving in this class, I bet. The guy who's just completely under the radar, and who I predict will leapfrog his way to the #1 pick while all the scouts bicker about the flaws/heart/etc of other players, is Marcus Smart. 6'4" freshman jack of all trades beast out of Oklahoma State. I can't believe no one's really talking about him. He hit all my markers, easily. I don't think he's a star, but he's as certified a top shelf NBA player as anyone else in this draft.
My top ten is:
1 Marcus Smart
2 Nerlens Noel
3 Michael Carter-Williams
4 Ben McLemore
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
6 Cody Zeller
7 Anthony Bennett
8 Otto Porter
9 Jeff Withey
10 Lucas Noguiera
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For a comparison, last year my top ten, using my same assessment, was this:
1 Anthony Davis
2 Bradley Beal
3 Michael Gilchrist
4 Terrence Jones
5 Dion Waiters
6 John Henson
7 Quincy Miller
8 Jared Sullinger
9 Jae Crowder
10 Moe Harkless
With the exception of Quincy Miller, all these players have cracked the rotations for their teams. Moe Harkless has started for Orlando, Jae Crowder (before Rick Carlisle demoted him) got minutes and was productive early on, Jared Sullinger is part of Boston's rotation, John Henson has had killer games recently, Terrence Jones has had rotation games with Houston. Everyone else is getting key minutes.
There's a few misses--I thought Damian Lillard (14th) had few PG skills out of college, Andre Drummond (37th) has pretty much exceeded everyone's expectations, Marquis Teague (56th) looks good, and Festus Ezeli (91st), while he isn't that productive, has managed to start for Golden State. Lillard was still a lottery pick, but the other three had a trend--they were all raw athletes, more or less. Those fare better in the NBA open court game.
But these could be hits, including our own Thomas Robinson (26th), Meyers Leonard (35th), Fab Melo (43rd), Austin Rivers (45th) and Andrew Nicholson (57th).
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With that out of the way, as usual, I'm not that high on some of these "lottery picks". Tony Mitchell of North Texas (35th) is an athletic freak who can play defense and rebound very well, but he has virtually no ball skills and I wonder if that will hurt him. It didn't hurt Gerald Wallace at all, but I'm wondering. If Drummond/Teague fared well in the open court, Mitchell might as well.
Shabazz Muhammad (40th) is a scorer first, scorer second, scorer hundredth. He just seems to have massive tunnel vision and zero ability to pass the ball, and he doesn't do any non-scoring thing well. I'm also down on Alex Poythress (38th), LeBryan Nash (41st), Isaiah Austin (47th), James McAdoo (48th) and Dario Saric (49th). I'd like to say that the former four need another year of college, and as for Saric, he fits into the NBA SF position seamlessly, but I have a ton of doubts on whether he's skilled enough.
My top ten is:
1 Marcus Smart
2 Nerlens Noel
3 Michael Carter-Williams
4 Ben McLemore
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
6 Cody Zeller
7 Anthony Bennett
8 Otto Porter
9 Jeff Withey
10 Lucas Noguiera
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For a comparison, last year my top ten, using my same assessment, was this:
1 Anthony Davis
2 Bradley Beal
3 Michael Gilchrist
4 Terrence Jones
5 Dion Waiters
6 John Henson
7 Quincy Miller
8 Jared Sullinger
9 Jae Crowder
10 Moe Harkless
With the exception of Quincy Miller, all these players have cracked the rotations for their teams. Moe Harkless has started for Orlando, Jae Crowder (before Rick Carlisle demoted him) got minutes and was productive early on, Jared Sullinger is part of Boston's rotation, John Henson has had killer games recently, Terrence Jones has had rotation games with Houston. Everyone else is getting key minutes.
There's a few misses--I thought Damian Lillard (14th) had few PG skills out of college, Andre Drummond (37th) has pretty much exceeded everyone's expectations, Marquis Teague (56th) looks good, and Festus Ezeli (91st), while he isn't that productive, has managed to start for Golden State. Lillard was still a lottery pick, but the other three had a trend--they were all raw athletes, more or less. Those fare better in the NBA open court game.
But these could be hits, including our own Thomas Robinson (26th), Meyers Leonard (35th), Fab Melo (43rd), Austin Rivers (45th) and Andrew Nicholson (57th).
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With that out of the way, as usual, I'm not that high on some of these "lottery picks". Tony Mitchell of North Texas (35th) is an athletic freak who can play defense and rebound very well, but he has virtually no ball skills and I wonder if that will hurt him. It didn't hurt Gerald Wallace at all, but I'm wondering. If Drummond/Teague fared well in the open court, Mitchell might as well.
Shabazz Muhammad (40th) is a scorer first, scorer second, scorer hundredth. He just seems to have massive tunnel vision and zero ability to pass the ball, and he doesn't do any non-scoring thing well. I'm also down on Alex Poythress (38th), LeBryan Nash (41st), Isaiah Austin (47th), James McAdoo (48th) and Dario Saric (49th). I'd like to say that the former four need another year of college, and as for Saric, he fits into the NBA SF position seamlessly, but I have a ton of doubts on whether he's skilled enough.
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I looked at Smart over the last couple of days - saw him yesterday and then looked at another game against a ranked opponent.
Turns out he plays absolutely great against good defenses, to the tune of .600TS% actually, which is ridiculous for a ball-dominant guard. He's big - almost rookie Tyreke or college Wade big. With the way he played in big games so far I have to predict a big Tourney for him. The only thing stopping Oklahoma State from going deep is the fact that Smart is basically all that team has with small contribution from LeBryan Nash. Right now my top-3 of realistic draft options are Smart, Poythress and Porter with Trey Burke a bit behind.
P.S. Travis Releford (Kansas) and Reggie Bullock (UNC) had good overall games once again. Those are obvious choices for early 2nd round pick. Speaking of second-rounder, I always thought that it was sent to Raptors in JJ trade. It was, but 2014 second-rounder.
Turns out he plays absolutely great against good defenses, to the tune of .600TS% actually, which is ridiculous for a ball-dominant guard. He's big - almost rookie Tyreke or college Wade big. With the way he played in big games so far I have to predict a big Tourney for him. The only thing stopping Oklahoma State from going deep is the fact that Smart is basically all that team has with small contribution from LeBryan Nash. Right now my top-3 of realistic draft options are Smart, Poythress and Porter with Trey Burke a bit behind.
P.S. Travis Releford (Kansas) and Reggie Bullock (UNC) had good overall games once again. Those are obvious choices for early 2nd round pick. Speaking of second-rounder, I always thought that it was sent to Raptors in JJ trade. It was, but 2014 second-rounder.
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
Smart's biggest knock is he can't shoot (he's at 38% from the field, 28% from deep) but face it--if you have multiple other elite areas (in Smart's case, his rebounding, passing and defense) it doesn't really matter. And shooting's really the easiest thing to develop. Those other attributes--you either have it, or you don't. It doesn't fluctuate much. And considering Smart shoots 80% from the stripe, there's hope for that.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is sort of the same way. Everyone thinks he's some long-bomb indulging brickster (30% from deep on a large number of attempts). I'm not sure whether he's a good shooter at all, but he's got a great knack for rebounding, anticipating passes and limiting turnovers. I keep hearing these Terrence Ross comparisons--Ross didn't steal like that, and for such an athlete he never drew fouls. Caldwell draws fouls somewhat well for a jumpshooter. He's probably not a star, but those Kerry Kittles comparisons? Yeah, those work. I think this draft has enough uncertainty where he might be the fifth best player, if the cards fall right.
Part three, with Michael Carter Williams.39% from the field, 27% from three. And then you realize he's a pure 6'5" PG who can rebound and steal the basketball.
It was kind of the same way last year. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist couldn't shoot in college, and even if you look a his hoopdata stats now all his shots are mostly at the rim, and in spite of that he's a top four rookie in this draft class. Andre Drummond was a free throw brickster with zero range and is arguably the best rookie this year. Bradley Beal is rounding to scoring form despite not shooting well from deep in college. John Henson had no offensive game in college but is putting up 10-11 shooting nights against San Antonio.
These guys will find ways to contribute in the NBA setting that do not necessarily involve shooting.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is sort of the same way. Everyone thinks he's some long-bomb indulging brickster (30% from deep on a large number of attempts). I'm not sure whether he's a good shooter at all, but he's got a great knack for rebounding, anticipating passes and limiting turnovers. I keep hearing these Terrence Ross comparisons--Ross didn't steal like that, and for such an athlete he never drew fouls. Caldwell draws fouls somewhat well for a jumpshooter. He's probably not a star, but those Kerry Kittles comparisons? Yeah, those work. I think this draft has enough uncertainty where he might be the fifth best player, if the cards fall right.
Part three, with Michael Carter Williams.39% from the field, 27% from three. And then you realize he's a pure 6'5" PG who can rebound and steal the basketball.
It was kind of the same way last year. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist couldn't shoot in college, and even if you look a his hoopdata stats now all his shots are mostly at the rim, and in spite of that he's a top four rookie in this draft class. Andre Drummond was a free throw brickster with zero range and is arguably the best rookie this year. Bradley Beal is rounding to scoring form despite not shooting well from deep in college. John Henson had no offensive game in college but is putting up 10-11 shooting nights against San Antonio.
These guys will find ways to contribute in the NBA setting that do not necessarily involve shooting.
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The thing is you take your typical college prospect and you see 24p(on .600TS%)+5r+8a+1TO against bad teams and 16p(.490TS%)+3r+5a+4TO in a few games against elite defenses and you think "wow, he put up great stats in college". And then you have Smart who is an absolute opposite of that. Haven't seen any of the bad shooting games as they were against bad teams but against ranked teams he was beasting. Is he not trying at all in those games or settling for some difficult shots. Don't know but Oklahoma State is one of the biggest surprises in college basketball and it seems Smart is the only reason.
Like MCW less and less as he was beasting on cupcake teams and now is getting exposed. Still a nice prospect but until he shows he can finish inside at least in college his game remains very flawed.
Like MCW less and less as he was beasting on cupcake teams and now is getting exposed. Still a nice prospect but until he shows he can finish inside at least in college his game remains very flawed.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
The jury is still out for me on all these guys. Its way to early for me to have a top ten, but I'll tell you right now, if I had one, Muhammed would certainly be in it. I wasn't that high on him the first couple of times I saw him, but now that he's getting into game shape, he's starting to look like the first pick in the draft. But as I said, its way to early.
I did a little write up on Smart at the beginning of the college season. He totally blew me away in one of his first games. Since then, he's sort of been up and down. Great potential though. He definitely needs to improve his shot. Carter-Williams has been struggling with his shot this year as well, but last year, he shot the ball well. So will the real Carter-Williams please stand up. I'm going to throw in Willie Cauley-Stein again. I watched the game against Marshall, and he was every bit as good in that game as Noel was.
I wish UNLV was on more, because I've been very impressed with Bennett. I don't give a damm if he's only 6'7". The kid can ball. I took in the Kansas/Temple game as well. Withey had 9 blocked shots in the game. He's been impressive this season. I don't know how many people realize that he was a very good volleyball player as well. I agree that Mitchell has few offensive skills other than put backs and alleyoops. He does have a decent looking jumpshot, but is very inconsistent with it. However, I would compare him to Kenneth Faried, who is doing just fine. Unless Davis comes on strong the rest of the year, Lillard will win rookie of the year. He's starting, and playing 30 minutes a game, and doing a fine job of running the team for a rookie.
I did a little write up on Smart at the beginning of the college season. He totally blew me away in one of his first games. Since then, he's sort of been up and down. Great potential though. He definitely needs to improve his shot. Carter-Williams has been struggling with his shot this year as well, but last year, he shot the ball well. So will the real Carter-Williams please stand up. I'm going to throw in Willie Cauley-Stein again. I watched the game against Marshall, and he was every bit as good in that game as Noel was.
I wish UNLV was on more, because I've been very impressed with Bennett. I don't give a damm if he's only 6'7". The kid can ball. I took in the Kansas/Temple game as well. Withey had 9 blocked shots in the game. He's been impressive this season. I don't know how many people realize that he was a very good volleyball player as well. I agree that Mitchell has few offensive skills other than put backs and alleyoops. He does have a decent looking jumpshot, but is very inconsistent with it. However, I would compare him to Kenneth Faried, who is doing just fine. Unless Davis comes on strong the rest of the year, Lillard will win rookie of the year. He's starting, and playing 30 minutes a game, and doing a fine job of running the team for a rookie.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I haven't said a lot about C.J. Fair of Syracuse so far, but I really like him. He doesn't get a lot of national attention, but he's been very effective this year. He's like the quiet assassin who lurks out there and does his job. You tend to not notice him but at the end of the game, like last night, he has 23 pt's, 11 rebounds, and 4 blocked shots. I'll admit that I'm sceptical of Syracuse players. I haven't kept track, but I'd bet more disappointments come out of Syracuse than any other big time program. But Fair just looks like the perfect role playing SF. He has the body of a SF at 6'8" and 220 pounds. He's a very good athlete, and appears to have very good BBIQ.
He's not the one getting all the attention at Syracuse, but I think he's someone to keep your eye on.
He's not the one getting all the attention at Syracuse, but I think he's someone to keep your eye on.
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
I haven't looked extensively into CJ Fair at Syracuse games, because he's not on any of the draft boards. I'm quite skeptical of him, though: he's a 6'8" 203 lb power forward in the NBA, I believe, but he hasn't shown any sort of ability to stretch the floor as three point shooting four. I guess the best thing is his defense though. I think he's a 2nd round pick at best, and at this point that might be stretching it.
Anyone like Sean Kilpatrick, a 6'4" 215 lb out of Cincy, and one of my favorite undersized SGs, Deonte Burton, from Nevada? Also quite high on Glenn Robinson III from Michigan.
Anyone like Sean Kilpatrick, a 6'4" 215 lb out of Cincy, and one of my favorite undersized SGs, Deonte Burton, from Nevada? Also quite high on Glenn Robinson III from Michigan.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
First off, Fair isn't a PF, he's a SF, and plays like a SF. He plays mostly on the perimeter, and at the moment he's shooting 47.8% overall and 37.5% from the three. He's a very good athlete with excellent quickness. I don't even know if he'll declare for the draft, and if he were to declare, I agree with you that at the moment, he would be a second round pick. I like Kilpatrick, but haven't seen much of Burton. I do like Glen Robinson III, who got off to a slow start, but had been coming on lately. He had a nice game the other night.
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