2009 SF Giants Thread
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I would take either guy ... And I have to say that Price is better for the Giants. He is a bad defender but he can hit and hit hard. However, I think he will be very expensive.
We should have signed Dunn last winter. He was a free agent and fairly cheap. There are many of you disagreed with me on that but I believe I was right. With him, we would have had 10 more wins IMO, or even more. Just add 10 to a W column and see where we are at
We should have signed Dunn last winter. He was a free agent and fairly cheap. There are many of you disagreed with me on that but I believe I was right. With him, we would have had 10 more wins IMO, or even more. Just add 10 to a W column and see where we are at
We should have signed Dunn last winter. He was a free agent and fairly cheap. There are many of you disagreed with me on that but I believe I was right. With him, we would have had 10 more wins IMO, or even more. Just add 10 to a W column and see where we are at
Dunn has a 4.4 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) this year. The least valuable player that he could conceivably have replaced (by shifting the outfield) would be Rowand (0.9 WARP), which would translate to about 3.5 wins.But yes, the Giants should have signed Dunn.
The price point for Adrian Gonzalez is probably a lot closer to Tim Lincecum than it is to, say, Madison Bumgarner. I doubt that a Bumgarner+Posey package would be sufficient to get Gonzalez, who has a team option for $5.5M in 2011...dude is a stud and a bargain, and they aren't going to let him go cheap. Fielder is under contract for $10.5M for 2010 only, but Bumgarner+Posey is probably in the ballpark for him.
Seems a bit optimistic. Dunn has a 4.4 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) this year. The least valuable player that he could conceivably have replaced (by shifting the outfield) would be Rowand (0.9 WARP), which would translate to about 3.5 wins.
But yes, the Giants should have signed Dunn.
The price point for Adrian Gonzalez is probably a lot closer to Tim Lincecum than it is to, say, Madison Bumgarner. I doubt that a Bumgarner+Posey package would be sufficient to get Gonzalez, who has a team option for $5.5M in 2011...dude is a stud and a bargain, and they aren't going to let him go cheap. Fielder is under contract for $10.5M for 2010 only, but Bumgarner+Posey is probably in the ballpark for him.
Dunn has a 4.4 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) this year. The least valuable player that he could conceivably have replaced (by shifting the outfield) would be Rowand (0.9 WARP), which would translate to about 3.5 wins.But yes, the Giants should have signed Dunn.
The price point for Adrian Gonzalez is probably a lot closer to Tim Lincecum than it is to, say, Madison Bumgarner. I doubt that a Bumgarner+Posey package would be sufficient to get Gonzalez, who has a team option for $5.5M in 2011...dude is a stud and a bargain, and they aren't going to let him go cheap. Fielder is under contract for $10.5M for 2010 only, but Bumgarner+Posey is probably in the ballpark for him.
.... Add Bobby Abreu to that mix and you have a pretty good team.
The thing that worries me about bringing in Fielder is... what happens if/when Pablo's weight and mobility becomes a factor, and he's better off playing 1st instead of 3rd? I don't think this is outside the realm of possibility. Thus, the Giants are better off pursuing power at 3rd or elsewhere, or at least a player who could play positions other than 1st, rather than risk trading valauble assets to be stuck with your two best hitters only able to play the same position.
He would not? Actually, Dunn is one of the players (10-12) who can hit home runs at AT&T. Garko is a decent power hitter but he does not have enough power to hit home runs in SF and Dunn has this stuff. Plus, Nationals ballpark is a fair park; I'd say even more pitcher-friendly.
Is he able to produce 35HR, 100 RBI, 100 BB? IMO, yes, he is. Is Bay able to produce similar numbers? I am not 100% sure. Dunn is a bad defender. That's true. Does Bay also suck at this? Yes, he surely does. And Jason is gonna be very expensive. I do not say that we should not consider Bay but I am not extremely excited about him. He is good overall though.
Is he able to produce 35HR, 100 RBI, 100 BB? IMO, yes, he is. Is Bay able to produce similar numbers? I am not 100% sure. Dunn is a bad defender. That's true. Does Bay also suck at this? Yes, he surely does. And Jason is gonna be very expensive. I do not say that we should not consider Bay but I am not extremely excited about him. He is good overall though.
And therein lies the problem. Everyone sees those stats and they stop before looking further. You did mention his defense issues, but he is also one of the WORST hitters in the majors when it comes to striking out.
If you think our team is bad now, wait til you plug this guy in at clean up. Look at his career stats.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4808
He averages 157 K's every single season. That's more than 1 per game assuming he doesn't play 162 every year, which he doesn't.
He's also been close to 200 k's twice. So, again - no thanks.
If you think our team is bad now, wait til you plug this guy in at clean up. Look at his career stats.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4808
He averages 157 K's every single season. That's more than 1 per game assuming he doesn't play 162 every year, which he doesn't.
He's also been close to 200 k's twice. So, again - no thanks.
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Ok, lets look at his stuff. He is a power hitter and he takes a lot of BBs. So, it is almost natural to him having a lot of SOs.
When every time you mention his SOs, you have to mention 100+ BBs. It is almost 100+ single hits!!
He does not make solid contact and relies too much on his power, and obviously, he is no A-ROD or Albert Pujols. BUT he is a dreadful slugger.
SOs and BA do not tell the whole story. Lets be honest, those stats are pretty meaningful in baseball. You do not judge a slugger by them. He has .407 OBP and .554 SLG, and .968 OPS!!!!!! That's the story.
So, I would not even think about his SOs .. think again - almost 1 OPS!!!! ... his lazy attitude and bad defense is the problem.
When every time you mention his SOs, you have to mention 100+ BBs. It is almost 100+ single hits!!
He does not make solid contact and relies too much on his power, and obviously, he is no A-ROD or Albert Pujols. BUT he is a dreadful slugger.
SOs and BA do not tell the whole story. Lets be honest, those stats are pretty meaningful in baseball. You do not judge a slugger by them. He has .407 OBP and .554 SLG, and .968 OPS!!!!!! That's the story.
So, I would not even think about his SOs .. think again - almost 1 OPS!!!! ... his lazy attitude and bad defense is the problem.
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Obviously, we all have different views but I do not know why you are so obsessed with strikeouts. He is a power hitter who takes a lot of BBs! You cannot avoid Ks with this style.
Why do not you ask to trade Panda? He was strikeouted 80 times and has only 44 BBs. We all say that Panda is a great hitter but his SLG, OPS, even !!!!OBP!!!! cannot be compared with Dunn's ones.
You do not look at just one stat category. Plus, different players should be judged by different ones. Look at Ichiro. Is he good? IMO, he is a true HOFer but his power stats are ridiculous. Even with his brilliant BA and OBP, his SLG and RBI stats are very weak. So, should we also criticize him for that? And again, even a great hitter like Ichiro has a 2:1 K/BB ratio. Dunn has a 1.5:1 one. So, Dunn's OBP is better than Ichiro's one!!!!! And you still wanna criticize his AB discipline?
Actually, you wanna put Dunn in the middle and Giants desperately need a guy like Dunn or any other powerful slugger.
Lets look at his normal ABs:
1 AB: K
2 AB: BB
3 AB: K
4 AB: 2-3 run triple or HR
So, he had 2 Ks, reached base twice, created 2-3 runs. Is that that horrible? And he does it almost every day! Not like Molina - 1/10 days. This is exactly what you want from your man in the middle.
Again, Dunn is not the best slugger and has flaws but he was not expensive and he was available.
Why do not you ask to trade Panda? He was strikeouted 80 times and has only 44 BBs. We all say that Panda is a great hitter but his SLG, OPS, even !!!!OBP!!!! cannot be compared with Dunn's ones.
You do not look at just one stat category. Plus, different players should be judged by different ones. Look at Ichiro. Is he good? IMO, he is a true HOFer but his power stats are ridiculous. Even with his brilliant BA and OBP, his SLG and RBI stats are very weak. So, should we also criticize him for that? And again, even a great hitter like Ichiro has a 2:1 K/BB ratio. Dunn has a 1.5:1 one. So, Dunn's OBP is better than Ichiro's one!!!!! And you still wanna criticize his AB discipline?
Actually, you wanna put Dunn in the middle and Giants desperately need a guy like Dunn or any other powerful slugger.
Lets look at his normal ABs:
1 AB: K
2 AB: BB
3 AB: K
4 AB: 2-3 run triple or HR
So, he had 2 Ks, reached base twice, created 2-3 runs. Is that that horrible? And he does it almost every day! Not like Molina - 1/10 days. This is exactly what you want from your man in the middle.
Again, Dunn is not the best slugger and has flaws but he was not expensive and he was available.
Panda's 80 Ks are nothing compared to Dunn's nearly 200 every year. Don't forget that Panda is contending for the batting title while Dunn is a career .250 hitter. Panda hits for Avg, even though he is a free swinger.
I also don't feel Panda should be our cleanup hitter. For this year's team, sure. But next year's? Not so much.
I'm sorry, I just don't feel Dunn is a capable cleanup hitter for a contending team. That's why he was still available in the first place and is now playing in Washington.
We are in agreement that we need a power guy and Bengie is not a cleanup hitter. Those 2 statements are very true. However, for reasons I've already stated - I'm thankful Dunn came nowhere near this offense.
I also don't feel Panda should be our cleanup hitter. For this year's team, sure. But next year's? Not so much.
I'm sorry, I just don't feel Dunn is a capable cleanup hitter for a contending team. That's why he was still available in the first place and is now playing in Washington.
We are in agreement that we need a power guy and Bengie is not a cleanup hitter. Those 2 statements are very true. However, for reasons I've already stated - I'm thankful Dunn came nowhere near this offense.
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I really do not get it and I am very sincere about it. I see that BA and strikeout stuff is very important to you.
I want you to explain me why Dunn (a guy with .250 BA and 200 K) has a better OBP than Panda and even Ichiro.
1. Why do you think it happens?
2. And why do you think BA is more important than OBP?
3. And how a guy like Dunn (with .250 BA and 200 K) has almost 1 OPS?
4. And why you don't wanna look at SLG is the main component for a cleanupper?
And I am not playing with you. I really wanna understand you and that's why I want you to answer those 4 questions. I am not begging you, just asking. Please.
I want you to explain me why Dunn (a guy with .250 BA and 200 K) has a better OBP than Panda and even Ichiro.
1. Why do you think it happens?
2. And why do you think BA is more important than OBP?
3. And how a guy like Dunn (with .250 BA and 200 K) has almost 1 OPS?
4. And why you don't wanna look at SLG is the main component for a cleanupper?
And I am not playing with you. I really wanna understand you and that's why I want you to answer those 4 questions. I am not begging you
, just asking. Please.
I really do not get it and I am very sincere about it. I see that BA and strikeout stuff is very important to you.
I want you to explain me why Dunn (a guy with .250 BA and 200 K) has a better OBP than Panda and even Ichiro.
1. Why do you think it happens?
2. And why do you think BA is more important than OBP?
3. And how a guy like Dunn (with .250 BA and 200 K) has almost 1 OPS?
4. And why you don't wanna look at SLG is the main component for a cleanupper?
And I am not playing with you. I really wanna understand you and that's why I want you to answer those 4 questions. I am not begging you, just asking. Please.
I want you to explain me why Dunn (a guy with .250 BA and 200 K) has a better OBP than Panda and even Ichiro.
1. Why do you think it happens?
2. And why do you think BA is more important than OBP?
3. And how a guy like Dunn (with .250 BA and 200 K) has almost 1 OPS?
4. And why you don't wanna look at SLG is the main component for a cleanupper?
And I am not playing with you. I really wanna understand you and that's why I want you to answer those 4 questions. I am not begging you
, just asking. Please.
I remember listening to the Giants play when I was in Jr. High and HS and Will Clark would come up to bat. He was always a dangerous hitter, but if he came up in a close game with runners on in the 7th inning on, he was deadly. While I won't compare Dunn to Will the Thrill, he is also more deadly late in games. That is what I want from my cleanup hitter.
Ok, I am going to answer my own questions.
1. Why do you think it happens? and 2. And why do you think BA is more important than OBP?
Yes, obviously, he has a solid OBP because he gets a lot of BBs. It is very important to mention. I am not Asian but I grew up there, played the game there. And it is all about statistics for them and OBP is #1. They do not have much power, so they play it in a single hit-run mode (small ball). And there are a lot of good hitters in Taiwan, Japan, Korea and sometimes it looks like they can single in every AB. But even Asian coaches usually look only at OBP.
BA just does not tell the whole story; BA does not measure real batting skills.
With all his strikeouts and low BA, Dunn (power hitter) reaches base during 41% of his plate appearances. Do you still wanna talk about his Ks and low BA? Is 41% is not good enough for you? What do you want him to do? To hit .340 and raise it to 60%? Albert Pujols has the best OBP and it is 44%. Molina has 28%.
3. And how a guy like Dunn (with .250 BA and 200 K) has almost 1 OPS?
I agree with Telemachus that OPS has flaws because it is a multi-component sort and it is always tricky. At the same time, it shows that a guy has a true (effective) power and skill to get on base a lot.
Dunn has 97%. With all his Ks and low BA, he has 97%!! A guy like that will never weaken your offense.
4. And why you don't wanna look at SLG is the main component for a cleanupper?
How can we evaluate players' power? IMO SLG is the way. HRs do not tell everything, SLG almost does. Dunn has 55%. What can you say against that number? It is a Top-15 one. And you do not want this guy in the middle?
ALL (including the main ones - OBP, SLG) meaningful numbers say that he WOULD HAVE helped us a lot this year.
It is like you are saying that O'Neal is a bad player because his FT% is terrible (BA and Ks).
1. Why do you think it happens? and 2. And why do you think BA is more important than OBP?
Yes, obviously, he has a solid OBP because he gets a lot of BBs. It is very important to mention. I am not Asian but I grew up there, played the game there. And it is all about statistics for them and OBP is #1. They do not have much power, so they play it in a single hit-run mode (small ball). And there are a lot of good hitters in Taiwan, Japan, Korea and sometimes it looks like they can single in every AB. But even Asian coaches usually look only at OBP.
BA just does not tell the whole story; BA does not measure real batting skills.
With all his strikeouts and low BA, Dunn (power hitter) reaches base during 41% of his plate appearances. Do you still wanna talk about his Ks and low BA? Is 41% is not good enough for you? What do you want him to do? To hit .340 and raise it to 60%? Albert Pujols has the best OBP and it is 44%. Molina has 28%.
3. And how a guy like Dunn (with .250 BA and 200 K) has almost 1 OPS?
I agree with Telemachus that OPS has flaws because it is a multi-component sort and it is always tricky. At the same time, it shows that a guy has a true (effective) power and skill to get on base a lot.
Dunn has 97%. With all his Ks and low BA, he has 97%!! A guy like that will never weaken your offense.
4. And why you don't wanna look at SLG is the main component for a cleanupper?
How can we evaluate players' power? IMO SLG is the way. HRs do not tell everything, SLG almost does. Dunn has 55%. What can you say against that number? It is a Top-15 one. And you do not want this guy in the middle?
ALL (including the main ones - OBP, SLG) meaningful numbers say that he WOULD HAVE helped us a lot this year.
It is like you are saying that O'Neal is a bad player because his FT% is terrible (BA and Ks).
Well, the Athletics stress OPS so much that they are currently 25th in the majors in OPS, and 13th out of 14 in the AL. (To be fair, they play in a pitcher's park, so their adjusted OPS+ is not quite so bad: 16th in the majors, right at the MLB average, and 9th in the AL, below the AL average.) The same applies for OBP, 11th out of 14 in the AL and 21st in the majors.
The Athletics may stress OPS/OBP, but if they do, they're doing a very poor job of it this year.
In fact, there is an incredibly strong correlation between team OPS and runs/game this year -- a correlation coefficient of 0.96. That is a ridiculous correlation coefficient for real-world data. The correlation coefficients for other stats:
SLG = 0.917
OBP = 0.862
AVG = 0.755
I believe the fact that slugging correlates better with runs than OBP this year is a bit of an anomaly - my understanding is that normally OBP correlates a bit better. Still, it's fairly easy to see that OPS does the best job of the four statistics at predicting runs/game. If in constructing a team, your tradeoff is OPS vs AVG, you should go for the team with the higher OPS, not the higher batting average. It will score more runs.
The Athletics may stress OPS/OBP, but if they do, they're doing a very poor job of it this year.
In fact, there is an incredibly strong correlation between team OPS and runs/game this year -- a correlation coefficient of 0.96. That is a ridiculous correlation coefficient for real-world data. The correlation coefficients for other stats:
SLG = 0.917
OBP = 0.862
AVG = 0.755
I believe the fact that slugging correlates better with runs than OBP this year is a bit of an anomaly - my understanding is that normally OBP correlates a bit better. Still, it's fairly easy to see that OPS does the best job of the four statistics at predicting runs/game. If in constructing a team, your tradeoff is OPS vs AVG, you should go for the team with the higher OPS, not the higher batting average. It will score more runs.
I really do not get it and I am very sincere about it. I see that BA and strikeout stuff is very important to you.
I want you to explain me why Dunn (a guy with .250 BA and 200 K) has a better OBP than Panda and even Ichiro.
1. Why do you think it happens?
2. And why do you think BA is more important than OBP?
3. And how a guy like Dunn (with .250 BA and 200 K) has almost 1 OPS?
4. And why you don't wanna look at SLG is the main component for a cleanupper?
And I am not playing with you. I really wanna understand you and that's why I want you to answer those 4 questions. I am not begging you, just asking. Please.
I want you to explain me why Dunn (a guy with .250 BA and 200 K) has a better OBP than Panda and even Ichiro.
1. Why do you think it happens?
2. And why do you think BA is more important than OBP?
3. And how a guy like Dunn (with .250 BA and 200 K) has almost 1 OPS?
4. And why you don't wanna look at SLG is the main component for a cleanupper?
And I am not playing with you. I really wanna understand you and that's why I want you to answer those 4 questions. I am not begging you
, just asking. Please.
I want Eugenio Velez and Freddy Sanchez to walk. I want my cleanup guy to get RBIs. And if his BA is only 250, that means he is only getting a hit 25 % of the time. I couldn't care less about his walks. A number 4 hitter needs hits.
This is my stance against Dunn. If you want your cleanup hitter to BB or K and only 25 % of the time actually get a hit (and possibly an RBI), then you can take your chances on Dunn.
I will pass.
There is something to be said for the #4 hitter being able to drive in runners ahead of him with base hits, but maybe less than you might think.
I went to the lineup analysis tool at http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py. I plugged in a reasonable Giants lineup constructed around a hypothetical hole in LF, which I filled with either Adam Dunn (.280/.410/.556) or the OF with the highest batting average who might reasonably have been available to the Giants in the offseason: Rajai Davis (.319/.376/.435).
Here Davis has a 39-point advantage in BA, but a 34-point deficit in OBP and a 121-point deficit in slugging. The results are that the Dunn lineup is expected to score 4.349 runs/game, while the Davis lineup is expected to score 4.111 runs per game. Here Dunn is expected to be worth 0.238 runs/game, despite a lower batting average.
However, I thought that was a bit unfair since Dunn is clearly a better hitter than Davis. So I also took Pablo Sandoval (.326/.381/.545), who I had originally slotted into the third slot in the lineup, and swapped him to the 4 spot for both Davis and Dunn.
Sandoval has a much better batting average than Dunn (46-point advantage), and his OBP (-29) is similar to Davis'. Importantly, his SLG (-11) value is almost on par with Dunn. In fact, the Dunn/Sandoval lineup does score more runs than the Sandoval/Dunn lineup: 4.357, for a difference of +0.008.
But what about swapping the Sandoval/Davis lineup to be Davis/Sandoval? Here Sandoval has a small advantage in BA (7 points) and OBP (5 points) but a big advantage in SLG (110 points). The result is an expected 4.171 runs/game, a difference of +0.060.
So the Sandoval/Dunn swaps show that putting OBP in the 3rd slot and BA in the 4th slot gives you a small advantage. But the Sandoval/Davis swap shows that moving SLG from the 3rd slot to the 4th slot (everything else about the same) gives you a much bigger advantage.
And the Dunn/Davis comparison shows that getting OBP/SLG is much more valuable than BA in the 4th slot. Ideally you would have them all, but if you've got to make a tradeoff, OBP/SLG gives you the better return.
I went to the lineup analysis tool at http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py. I plugged in a reasonable Giants lineup constructed around a hypothetical hole in LF, which I filled with either Adam Dunn (.280/.410/.556) or the OF with the highest batting average who might reasonably have been available to the Giants in the offseason: Rajai Davis (.319/.376/.435).
Here Davis has a 39-point advantage in BA, but a 34-point deficit in OBP and a 121-point deficit in slugging. The results are that the Dunn lineup is expected to score 4.349 runs/game, while the Davis lineup is expected to score 4.111 runs per game. Here Dunn is expected to be worth 0.238 runs/game, despite a lower batting average.
However, I thought that was a bit unfair since Dunn is clearly a better hitter than Davis. So I also took Pablo Sandoval (.326/.381/.545), who I had originally slotted into the third slot in the lineup, and swapped him to the 4 spot for both Davis and Dunn.
Sandoval has a much better batting average than Dunn (46-point advantage), and his OBP (-29) is similar to Davis'. Importantly, his SLG (-11) value is almost on par with Dunn. In fact, the Dunn/Sandoval lineup does score more runs than the Sandoval/Dunn lineup: 4.357, for a difference of +0.008.
But what about swapping the Sandoval/Davis lineup to be Davis/Sandoval? Here Sandoval has a small advantage in BA (7 points) and OBP (5 points) but a big advantage in SLG (110 points). The result is an expected 4.171 runs/game, a difference of +0.060.
So the Sandoval/Dunn swaps show that putting OBP in the 3rd slot and BA in the 4th slot gives you a small advantage. But the Sandoval/Davis swap shows that moving SLG from the 3rd slot to the 4th slot (everything else about the same) gives you a much bigger advantage.
And the Dunn/Davis comparison shows that getting OBP/SLG is much more valuable than BA in the 4th slot. Ideally you would have them all, but if you've got to make a tradeoff, OBP/SLG gives you the better return.
Without a question ... BA is meaningless in so many cases (harsh word but it is true) and should be only viewed as an element of OBP.
And the fact that Dunn/Sandoval is more effective than Sandoval/Dunn says that Dunn's OBP is much better and they both have almost identical SLG. With Dunn on board, Sandoval is able to produce a 100 RBI season even without improvements.
And the fact that Dunn/Sandoval is more effective than Sandoval/Dunn says that Dunn's OBP is much better and they both have almost identical SLG. With Dunn on board, Sandoval is able to produce a 100 RBI season even without improvements.
I think you are discounting the intangibles that a player like Dunn brings to the table. I agree that I want my cleanup hitter to have a better average than .250, but I also want someone who will put some fear into the opposing pitcher. The Giants haven't had anyone like that since Bonds left. Say what you want about Dunn, but opposing pitchers know when he will be up late in the game and change how they pitch to others as a result.
If Dunn is on deck, Sandavol is less likely to be pitched around (which has happened much more often the second half of the season). Because while Dunn my strike out, he may also hit one into the next state.
And maybe someone can look it up, but I am pretty sure that his average is much better with runners in scoring position and also late in games. Those are also important intangibles when looking at a player.
No one would ever argue that Sammy Sosa wasn't a dangerous hitter, but it is amazing how often he struck out in big at bats and how many of his HRs came when the Cubs were either up or down by 5 or more runs. Give me the player that gets the hits when the game is on the line.
If Dunn is on deck, Sandavol is less likely to be pitched around (which has happened much more often the second half of the season). Because while Dunn my strike out, he may also hit one into the next state.
And maybe someone can look it up, but I am pretty sure that his average is much better with runners in scoring position and also late in games. Those are also important intangibles when looking at a player.
No one would ever argue that Sammy Sosa wasn't a dangerous hitter, but it is amazing how often he struck out in big at bats and how many of his HRs came when the Cubs were either up or down by 5 or more runs. Give me the player that gets the hits when the game is on the line.