2009-10 Kings draft position thread

[est.1999]

I think the wiz can win

 

[dbfish]

Yah those are great odds, and the reason I was hitting refresh on my iPod 500 times to follow the Dubs vs. Jazz. No such luck though, the Warriors are lucky to have even won as many games as they have. Do you guys think there is any chance they beat Portland who is Roy-less right now. The Pacers might be our only hope if they can just let Washington beat up on them, still don't see that happening though. I want the best for my team, and I really hope lady luck finally smiles on us (position wise). We can only get a Reke type player who negates droppng like we did every so often.

Those are great numerical odds. Let's just hope those are great Kings odds.

 

[bajaden]

It's possible that the Blazers will rest their starters, so the Warriors could still win!

Well their not going to have Brandon Roy for the game. We can only hope..

 

[rhythmless]

Im assuming both WASH and GS will lose their remaining games which will put us in a tie with them for 3rd worst record. Top 5 pick isnt the question, its top 4 this year. New jersey and Minnesota have the 1st and 2nd worst record. We want the 3rd or 4th pick and were tied with 3 other teams. So 3 teams are trying to get 2 spots. 66% chance of us grabbing the 3rd or 4th pick.

Technically, we have 66% chance of getting the 3rd or 4th spot in the lottery. The ping pong ball odds still work after that 66% chance.

.66*(ping pong ball odds)

 

[hammystyle]

Odds if both Was and GS Lose

Calculated using the odds from this website: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process

Add up the probabilities from the 3/4/5 teams and then divide by three. Our odds would change whenever they do the coin flip to determine draft order between the tie, but here's where it stands today, assuming Wash and GS lose.

1st 12.1%
2nd 12.7%
3rd 13.2%
4th 10.8%
5th 29.2%
6th 18.7%
7th 3.2%
8th 0.1%

Odds if either Was or GS wins:

1st 13.8%
2nd 14.2%
3rd 14.5%
4th 16.3%
5th 30.8%
6th 10.0%
7th 0.6%

 

[vikinginferno]

Calculated using the odds from this website: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process

Add up the probabilities from the 3/4/5 teams and then divide by three. Our odds would change whenever they do the coin flip to determine draft order between the tie, but here's where it stands today, assuming Wash and GS lose.

1st 12.1%
2nd 12.7%
3rd 13.2%
4th 10.8%
5th 29.2%
6th 18.7%
7th 3.2%
8th 0.1%

Odds if either Was or GS wins:

1st 13.8%
2nd 14.2%
3rd 14.5%
4th 16.3%
5th 30.8%
6th 10.0%
7th 0.6%

Wow, so basically 50/50 shot of top 4 pick if both lose. That's pretty intense. If 1 wins, 60/40. If both were to somehow win, 70/30. To me, there is a pretty large drop-off after the 4th pick so that's what I am hoping for.

 

[Dreadnought]

I feel like this will be the year we get the first draft pick

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Hey Cap Fact. If Wash and Gsw both lose tomorrow how bad of shape are we in for getting a top 5 pick. What if one of those teams wins, how much better shape will that scenario put us. I hate the Dubs and the Wiz equally by the way, they are killing us

Ask and ye shall receive (sometimes...but this is one of those times!)

The math on this is actually pretty hairy, so I ran a simulation instead, 100,000 repetitions. It's not perfect, but the numbers will at least be close. (All of the simulations also simulate the coin flip for positioning.)

Obviously, if both WAS and GSW win tomorrow, we're all alone in 3rd, and the values found on the Wiki page are accurate (though ties below us might make a wee tiny difference in the overall numbers):
#1: 15.6%
#2: 15.7%
#3: 15.6%
#4: 22.6%
#5: 26.5%
#6: 4.0%

If we are in a tie for 3rd-4th, the probabilities (via simulation) are:
#1: 13.6%
#2: 14.3%
#3: 14.3%
#4: 16.3%
#5: 30.9%
#6: 10.0%
#7: 0.6%

If we are in a tie for 3rd-4th-5th, the probabilities (via simulation) are:
#1: 12.1%
#2: 12.7%
#3: 13.5%
#4: 10.6%
#5: 29.1%
#6: 18.6%
#7: 3.2%
#8: 0.1%

Edit: And in the time it took me to write the simulation, Hammystyle just averaged the numbers and got substantially the same result. And here I thought that averaging was going to get it wrong. Heh.

 

[exGrizzly]

I like those odds. Thank you very much Capt. Factorial. Come on ping pong balls.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Ask and ye shall receive (sometimes...but this is one of those times!)

The math on this is actually pretty hairy, so I ran a simulation instead, 100,000 repetitions. It's not perfect, but the numbers will at least be close. (All of the simulations also simulate the coin flip for positioning.)

Obviously, if both WAS and GSW win tomorrow, we're all alone in 3rd, and the values found on the Wiki page are accurate (though ties below us might make a wee tiny difference in the overall numbers):
#1: 15.6%
#2: 15.7%
#3: 15.6%
#4: 22.6%
#5: 26.5%
#6: 4.0%

If we are in a tie for 3rd-4th, the probabilities (via simulation) are:
#1: 13.6%
#2: 14.3%
#3: 14.3%
#4: 16.3%
#5: 30.9%
#6: 10.0%
#7: 0.6%

If we are in a tie for 3rd-4th-5th, the probabilities (via simulation) are:
#1: 12.1%
#2: 12.7%
#3: 13.5%
#4: 10.6%
#5: 29.1%
#6: 18.6%
#7: 3.2%
#8: 0.1%

Edit: And in the time it took me to write the simulation, Hammystyle just averaged the numbers and got substantially the same result. And here I thought that averaging was going to get it wrong. Heh.

Thank you for doing this. Quick question though. In the latter two scenarios, did you factor in that even with the coin flip the ping pong balls are evenly divided (with potentially 1 extra) going to the winner or was this based off of each individual possibility (as if we had the 3, 4 or 5 spot)?

 

[KingsFanFromItaly]

Does anybody know when the lottery is going to be?

 

[sc3252]

Does anybody know when the lottery is going to be?

I think I read somewhere it was the 4th week of may.

 

[KingsFanFromItaly]

I found it! May 18th.

http://www.nba.com/mastercalendar/masterCalendar.html

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Thank you for doing this. Quick question though. In the latter two scenarios, did you factor in that even with the coin flip the ping pong balls are evenly divided (with potentially 1 extra) going to the winner or was this based off of each individual possibility (as if we had the 3, 4 or 5 spot)?

The "evenly divided" number of combos was used, and 3rd-4th or 3rd-4th-5th position was randomly determined on each repetition. In the case of the 3rd-4th tie, there are an uneven number of combos - if we got 3rd we got the extra combo.

 

[Sac.1989]

wash & g state can still win but i assure you they like us are onto this

 

[sc3252]

I think they are both going to lose. Only game I can see a win is for Washington, and that is unlikely seeing how the team they are facing doesn't benefit from a loss(DET).

 

[est.1999]

I thought was is playing Indiana??

 

[King-Da-Yah]

We need to pray that Livingston and Blatche fire on all cylinders tonight, and that the Pacers try to avoid any further head injuries to their Granchise player (Danny) and limit his minutes. I really don't see the latter happening so we are going to have to hope for the former.

GSW could win (by accident most likely), but like many of you have mentioned our best chance is Wash picking up a V. Needless to say, I will be using all that's left of my 09-10 regular season mojo to get both a win (hey it worked in the GSW Vs. OKC game!).

 

[sidney]

for what it is worth, Vegas odds tonight have Indiana winning by about 2 and Portland winning by about 11.

Indiana/Washington should be quite close.

 

[Kings Fan Gerard]

Wizards leading by 1 against the Pacers! Come on Wiz!

 

[LWP777]

Pacers with the ball down by 1 with 3 seconds to go. Come on Wizards! One time!!

 

[r3ali5t]

Indy ball with 3 sec. left. Washington up by 1. Pacers better not make a shot..

 

[Kings Fan Gerard]

I'd hate the wiz if they lose on a buzzer beater.

 

[mac]

Wizards won!!!

 

[timmytrio43]

Thank god wizards!!!!!!!

 

[LWP777]

Washington wins!!!!!

 

[bench_blob]

Wwooohooo!

WIZARDS wiN!

 

[rainmaker]

Just gets better and better. Go Warriors!

 

[r3ali5t]

HAHA WOOOO! Washington LINS!

 

[Kings Fan Gerard]

Wizards Win!