“RUN IT BACK!” / Monte needs to fix this.

[The_Jamal]

So this probably points at the happy medium between the two positions here. Can Domas shoot it well enough from outside? Yes. Does he shoot it often enough? No.

But really, it's more easily fixable to convince a reluctant high-percentage shooter to shoot more often than it is to convert an eager low-percentage shooter into a good shooter, so at least we have the "right" problem.

And what Sactowndog doesn't seem to understand is that having a larger sample gives you actual clarity into a situation you're looking into. Kind of the problem with Domas is even after these 2 seasons, he's doesn't have a great sample to really determine if he's a great shooter or not. He's been effective in his limited attempts, but can that hold up if you tack on another 200 3PA next season?

That's why I don't understand why posting the 39 FGA as some sort of "gotcha" makes any sense. It doesn't really determine anything outside of him struggling a bit with his jumper in 9 games. And it's not even as bad as he was saying (unless the bball ref numbers are wrong).

 

[sactowndog]

Explain to me how Domas's playoff shooting numbers when he was 21-22, as a bench player, matters WHATSOEVER to the player he is now as a 26/27 year old?

You're a data guy who "understands" basketball and statistics, this should be a lay-up.

well you really have two sets.

Data as a Pacer which quite frankly I was too lazy to look up and data as a Thunder which i agree is irrelevant and not worth looking up.

and it’s not understanding the data it’s doing the work to correlate it and look it up that @Capt. Factorial chided me about and I you.

 

[sactowndog]

So this probably points at the happy medium between the two positions here. Can Domas shoot it well enough from outside? Yes. Does he shoot it often enough? No.

But really, it's more easily fixable to convince a reluctant high-percentage shooter to shoot more often than it is to convert an eager low-percentage shooter into a good shooter, so at least we have the "right" problem.

I’m not sure he can shoot well enough from outside nor do many teams who play against him. But we agree he needs to shoot it more.

 

[sactowndog]

And what Sactowndog doesn't seem to understand is that having a larger sample gives you actual clarity into a situation you're looking into. Kind of the problem with Domas is even after these 2 seasons, he's doesn't have a great sample to really determine if he's a great shooter or not. He's been effective in his limited attempts, but can that hold up if you tack on another 200 3PA next season?

That's why I don't understand why posting the 39 FGA as some sort of "gotcha" makes any sense. It doesn't really determine anything outside of him struggling a bit with his jumper in 9 games. And it's not even as bad as he was saying (unless the bball ref numbers are wrong).

post the BBRef numbers.

Part of the problem is they don’t advance for him to get more attempts and one reason they don’t advance is he doesn’t hit the attempts he does take.

 

[The_Jamal]

post the BBRef numbers.

Part of the problem is they don’t advance for him to get more attempts and one reason they don’t advance is he doesn’t hit the attempts he does take.

Frankly, don't care about those either. He's an entirely new level of player in a Kings uniform and should be an All-NBA selection if voting were actually based on the 15 best players this year.

Capt's numbers actually matter because there's more meat behind it. Last year, his shooting numbers were very similar too:

10-16 feet: 21-41 for 52%
16-3pt line: 24-54 for 44%
3pt line: 31-83 for 37%

I'm also not sure where Sactowndog is getting his numbers either, but his bball reference playoff shooting splits are:

10-16 feet: 3-4 for 75%
16-3pt line: 6-14 for 42%
3pt: 1-5 for 20%

Certainly not good, but still a step above what he was trying to say his numbers were last year? May need a fact check there on Sactowndog where his splits are coming from.

But basically, I think he does have shooting talent, but he's got some sort of mental block where he doesn't want to pull (confidence?) that he has to get over. He's proven over the course of the last 2 seasons that's he's a decent shooter when he pulls. He just doesn't get any volume down.


Read it.

I did.

Last year's regular season splits

Last years playoff splits.

Different from yours.

I do agree he doesn't shoot enough. And he's shown he's a good shooter, in his limited sample. Even these playoff numbers that you say are "bad" is actually more than fine. 9-18 from mid-range is excellent. Just not a ton of attempts. Same with the 3's.

That's the issue. It's not he can't shoot, it's that he doesn't enough. That's what needs to get solved next year.

 

[SacTownKid]

I did.

Last year's regular season splits

Last years playoff splits.

Different from yours.

I do agree he doesn't shoot enough. And he's shown he's a good shooter, in his limited sample. Even these playoff numbers that you say are "bad" is actually more than fine. 9-18 from mid-range is excellent. Just not a ton of attempts. Same with the 3's.

That's the issue. It's not he can't shoot, it's that he doesn't enough. That's what needs to get solved next year.

And the issue is the same with Harrison Barnes though, what does it matter if the result is the same? At some point you're assuming players nearing their prime will change and historically that's very unusual for them to.

 

[The_Jamal]

And the issue is the same with Harrison Barnes though, what does it matter if the result is the same? At some point you're assuming players nearing their prime will change and historically that's very unusual for them to.

Absolutely, but I think the bigs shooting revolution is an exception to the rule. All these dudes are learning to shoot now. Hell, Brook Lopez became an elite shooter in his 9th season after shooting 31 3PA in his previous 8 seasons.

 

[sactowndog]

Absolutely, but I think the bigs shooting revolution is an exception to the rule. All these dudes are learning to shoot now. Hell, Brook Lopez became an elite shooter in his 9th season after shooting 31 3PA in his previous 8 seasons.

true but Lopez is a career ~800 free throw shooter whereas Domas is about .720. Doesn’t mean he can’t do it but Lopez is clearly a very good shooter.

for his career Domas shoots .176 from 3 in the play-offs not including the playin this year which would have dropped it further. Regular season last 2 years he is about .370 which would be fine.

 

[Kingster]

not overpaying???
Sabonis
41.8M
44.9M
48.1M
51.2M

that is a lot of money to pay for a player that can’t lead you out of the first round or play-in of the play-offs.

Is it? You'd have to do a comparative analysis of the top 20% of the league to figure that one out.

 

[sactowndog]

Is it? You'd have to do a comparative analysis of the top 20% of the league to figure that one out.

more like the top 25 players

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings//

 

[Kingster]

I noted with interest that McNair TOTALLY sidestepped the question this morning about "the core." He just diverted the answer to improving the team.

 

[SLAB]

I noted with interest that McNair TOTALLY sidestepped the question this morning about "the core." He just diverted the answer to improving the team.

Beautiful. No one should be safe.

 

[Kingster]

Beautiful. No one should be safe.

Agreed. If anything, he leaned into the question even more by indirectly mentioning that he's shown he's not adverse to making big change (the Sabonis-Halliburton trade).

 

[ockingsfan]

Absolutely, but I think the bigs shooting revolution is an exception to the rule. All these dudes are learning to shoot now. Hell, Brook Lopez became an elite shooter in his 9th season after shooting 31 3PA in his previous 8 seasons.

Domas actually shot 2.6 and 2.3 3pt attempts per game his last 2 years at Indy, but once he got to Sacramento, it's been 1.1 3pt attempts per game. Nikola Jokic has averaged between 2.2 to 3.9 3 pt attempts in his career. Just 2 or 3 more 3pt attempts per game by Sabonis (at a decent percentage) would open things up so much more for the Kings.

I'm not sure what it's going to take for the Kings coaching staff to convince Domas to take 3 to 4 3s per game, but it would make it a heck of a lot easier to upgrade the other front court spot next to Domas if he did.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1783222150897262906

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Beautiful. No one should be safe.

Yeah, but it's also pretty vague what "core" means (though I don't know what the specifics of the question were, which might clear things up).

For me, the "core" is Fox/Sabonis and probably Murray. I feel like these guys form the shape and culture of our team. We're on the right trend, and I don't want to blow that up.

Huerter, Barnes, Mitchell, Ellis, Lyles? Not core. Love these guys (to varying extents), but they're absolutely fair game. Ellis brings the most value of this group in terms of cost/benefit and development potential, and I don't think another team would make what I would consider to be a fair offer in trade for Keon. The other guys I suspect would bring fair trade offers.

Vezenkov, Colby, Duarte? Haven't contributed enough to even be rotation players, much less core. Maybe Sasha and Colby get there, maybe not. I'm in favor of at least seeing what those two can do next year, but if there's a trade that helps us and the other teams demands them, welp, nice knowing you.

Monk? Not eligible to be core unless he re-signs.

Len, Edwards, McGee? Free agents. Len is a useful piece and I'd be happy bringing him back, the other two don't seem to help much. I don't care much what we do at the very back end of the roster.

 

[Kingster]

Yeah, but it's also pretty vague what "core" means (though I don't know what the specifics of the question were, which might clear things up).

For me, the "core" is Fox/Sabonis and probably Murray. I feel like these guys form the shape and culture of our team. We're on the right trend, and I don't want to blow that up.

Huerter, Barnes, Mitchell, Ellis, Lyles? Not core. Love these guys (to varying extents), but they're absolutely fair game. Ellis brings the most value of this group in terms of cost/benefit and development potential, and I don't think another team would make what I would consider to be a fair offer in trade for Keon. The other guys I suspect would bring fair trade offers.

Vezenkov, Colby, Duarte? Haven't contributed enough to even be rotation players, much less core. Maybe Sasha and Colby get there, maybe not. I'm in favor of at least seeing what those two can do next year, but if there's a trade that helps us and the other teams demands them, welp, nice knowing you.

Monk? Not eligible to be core unless he re-signs.

Len, Edwards, McGee? Free agents. Len is a useful piece and I'd be happy bringing him back, the other two don't seem to help much. I don't care much what we do at the very back end of the roster.

The questioner mentioned Fox, Sabonis and Murray, and then threw in HB and Heurter. McNair didn't bite on any of the names and inferred that nobody is untouchable.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

@Capt. Factorial largely matches my assessment moving forward. I am not keen on moving from Ellis unless it took 3-4 guys off the books and brought in 2 starters. Otherwise we're losing one of the few affordable pieces we have.

Would like to re-sign Len as insurance piece, and Duarte can go in that bottom pile unless we ship the entire group of Huerter, Mitchell and Ellis for a single wing (in my above scenarios I would also be shipping Barnes and Lyles if needed for Barnes's replacement as well).

 

[funkykingston]

Yeah, but it's also pretty vague what "core" means (though I don't know what the specifics of the question were, which might clear things up).

For me, the "core" is Fox/Sabonis and probably Murray. I feel like these guys form the shape and culture of our team. We're on the right trend, and I don't want to blow that up.

Huerter, Barnes, Mitchell, Ellis, Lyles? Not core. Love these guys (to varying extents), but they're absolutely fair game. Ellis brings the most value of this group in terms of cost/benefit and development potential, and I don't think another team would make what I would consider to be a fair offer in trade for Keon. The other guys I suspect would bring fair trade offers.

Vezenkov, Colby, Duarte? Haven't contributed enough to even be rotation players, much less core. Maybe Sasha and Colby get there, maybe not. I'm in favor of at least seeing what those two can do next year, but if there's a trade that helps us and the other teams demands them, welp, nice knowing you.

Monk? Not eligible to be core unless he re-signs.

Len, Edwards, McGee? Free agents. Len is a useful piece and I'd be happy bringing him back, the other two don't seem to help much. I don't care much what we do at the very back end of the roster.

To me Malik is part of the Core of this team from the standpoint that I don't think the Kings have the same level of success the past two seasons without him, and losing him will likely cause the Kings to take a significant step backwards unless they pick up a similarly impactful player.

The idea that he's not part of the core due to his FA status is a bit odd. That would be like if the Kings didn't extend Domas last summer and then to say he's not part of the core this year because we don't know if he'll return. I get the logic, but from a practical standpoint I think he's clearly one of the top 3 or 4 players on this roster and a key component.

Otherwise I agree. Sabonis, Fox, & Murray are the keys. None are untouchable if you can improve the team by trading them, but I don't see that as very likely. So you likely build the rest of the team around those foundational pieces. And agree that Keon is a great complimentary piece. He can swing from 1 to 2, is a great man and team defender, shoots the 3 at a high clip and generally makes good decisions on the court. I see no reason to move him, especially considering what a bargain he is right now.

Barnes? I'd trade him in a heartbeat if he can be part of a deal to improve the other forward spot between Keegan and Domas. Likewise with Huerter. I really like Davion, but I think Keon makes him even more expendable than he was before. Lyles took a bit of a step back this season, but I like his fit off the bench. Colby has show some flashes. Sasha can be dealt, but I get the feeling we'd regret not seeing what he can do in year two and we'd be trading him for pennies on the dollar.

So I think there's a core of four (Sabonis, Fox, Murray, Monk) a role player I'd hate to see the Kings move on from (Ellis) and then everyone else.

 

[SLAB]

Yeah, but it's also pretty vague what "core" means (though I don't know what the specifics of the question were, which might clear things up).

For me, the "core" is Fox/Sabonis and probably Murray. I feel like these guys form the shape and culture of our team. We're on the right trend, and I don't want to blow that up.

Huerter, Barnes, Mitchell, Ellis, Lyles? Not core. Love these guys (to varying extents), but they're absolutely fair game. Ellis brings the most value of this group in terms of cost/benefit and development potential, and I don't think another team would make what I would consider to be a fair offer in trade for Keon. The other guys I suspect would bring fair trade offers.

Vezenkov, Colby, Duarte? Haven't contributed enough to even be rotation players, much less core. Maybe Sasha and Colby get there, maybe not. I'm in favor of at least seeing what those two can do next year, but if there's a trade that helps us and the other teams demands them, welp, nice knowing you.

Monk? Not eligible to be core unless he re-signs.

Len, Edwards, McGee? Free agents. Len is a useful piece and I'd be happy bringing him back, the other two don't seem to help much. I don't care much what we do at the very back end of the roster.

Pretty much agreed on all fronts. Sabonis / Fox are the “core.” No one else. That said, to me even they’re not untouchable. Not shopping them, but if someone wants to Godfather an offer? Listening. Murray can be Hali/Sabonis-level surprise traded for an all-star that fits (and no rentals), and honestly if it’s there I’d very heavily consider going for it. He didn’t do anything this last season, but I still trust Monte if and when he decides to make a big move.

Everyone else should be aggressively dangled.

unfortunately I think Monk chases the bag because we know how wild teams get in the offseason throwing money around. And these last two seasons Malik absolutely earned the big number someone will throw at him.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

To me Malik is part of the Core of this team from the standpoint that I don't think the Kings have the same level of success the past two seasons without him, and losing him will likely cause the Kings to take a significant step backwards unless they pick up a similarly impactful player.

The idea that he's not part of the core due to his FA status is a bit odd. That would be like if the Kings didn't extend Domas last summer and then to say he's not part of the core this year because we don't know if he'll return. I get the logic, but from a practical standpoint I think he's clearly one of the top 3 or 4 players on this roster and a key component.

Otherwise I agree. Sabonis, Fox, & Murray are the keys. None are untouchable if you can improve the team by trading them, but I don't see that as very likely. So you likely build the rest of the team around those foundational pieces. And agree that Keon is a great complimentary piece. He can swing from 1 to 2, is a great man and team defender, shoots the 3 at a high clip and generally makes good decisions on the court. I see no reason to move him, especially considering what a bargain he is right now.

Barnes? I'd trade him in a heartbeat if he can be part of a deal to improve the other forward spot between Keegan and Domas. Likewise with Huerter. I really like Davion, but I think Keon makes him even more expendable than he was before. Lyles took a bit of a step back this season, but I like his fit off the bench. Colby has show some flashes. Sasha can be dealt, but I get the feeling we'd regret not seeing what he can do in year two and we'd be trading him for pennies on the dollar.

So I think there's a core of four (Sabonis, Fox, Murray, Monk) a role player I'd hate to see the Kings move on from (Ellis) and then everyone else.

But Monk is not under contract and unless he takes a discount we have no way of throwing a market offer at him.

His production was absolutely essential to the team's success. But by the same token - there is nothing new about the early-Bird rules or anything surrounding Monk's production, and the better he performed the more likely we'd be to be outbid for his services, so thinking "core" is correctly a bit flawed?

Also as nasty as it is to say, if Monk were 2 years into a 4 year deal and we just missed the playoffs while he was a 6MotY finalist, I'd also seriously look at trading him to upgrade Barnes's spot if we felt we could use pick 13 to shore up the bench production.

 

[funkykingston]

But Monk is not under contract and unless he takes a discount we have no way of throwing a market offer at him.

His production was absolutely essential to the team's success. But by the same token - there is nothing new about the early-Bird rules or anything surrounding Monk's production, and the better he performed the more likely we'd be to be outbid for his services, so thinking "core" is correctly a bit flawed?

Also as nasty as it is to say, if Monk were 2 years into a 4 year deal and we just missed the playoffs while he was a 6MotY finalist, I'd also seriously look at trading him to upgrade Barnes's spot if we felt we could use pick 13 to shore up the bench production.

I definitely understand the contract complications with Monk. They are what they are. And if he takes a bigger money deal to play elsewhere then the Kings will have lost a core piece. That's all I'm saying.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I definitely understand the contract complications with Monk. They are what they are. And if he takes a bigger money deal to play elsewhere then the Kings will have lost a core piece. That's all I'm saying.

Right but if he was under contract right now he'd also be movable, imho.

 

[SacTownKid]

I definitely understand the contract complications with Monk. They are what they are. And if he takes a bigger money deal to play elsewhere then the Kings will have lost a core piece. That's all I'm saying.

He's just outside core, but Monk at 18-19 million per, and being in the apron is one of those things where you question if it's worth it or not. Not to mention "contract year" stuff although Monk was pretty consistent in both of his years.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

To me Malik is part of the Core of this team from the standpoint that I don't think the Kings have the same level of success the past two seasons without him, and losing him will likely cause the Kings to take a significant step backwards unless they pick up a similarly impactful player.

The idea that he's not part of the core due to his FA status is a bit odd.

I think what I was trying to get at there (imperfectly) is that in terms of "what core pieces should we refuse to trade?", he's not a part of that discussion, because we can't trade him. (Sign-and-trade excepted, but I doubt Monk S&Ts for the amount we can offer, he either takes our offer and stays, or he chases more money somewhere else.) I would put him at Murray-tier or a bit lower on the "untouchable" scale if he were signed, certainly above my highest not-core tier.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I think what I was trying to get at there (imperfectly) is that in terms of "what core pieces should we refuse to trade?", he's not a part of that discussion, because we can't trade him. (Sign-and-trade excepted, but I doubt Monk S&Ts for the amount we can offer, he either takes our offer and stays, or he chases more money somewhere else.)

I assume if we use the early-Bird there will be trade restrictions in place?

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I assume if we use the early-Bird there will be trade restrictions in place?

I don't believe there are any particular Early Bird S&T restrictions outside of those that come standard with any old S&T.

 

[funkykingston]

I think what I was trying to get at there (imperfectly) is that in terms of "what core pieces should we refuse to trade?", he's not a part of that discussion, because we can't trade him. (Sign-and-trade excepted, but I doubt Monk S&Ts for the amount we can offer, he either takes our offer and stays, or he chases more money somewhere else.) I would put him at Murray-tier or a bit lower on the "untouchable" scale if he were signed, certainly above my highest not-core tier.

Got it. Makes perfect sense from that standpoint.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

It's not he can't shoot, it's that he doesn't enough. That's what needs to get solved next year.

And he's indecisive about it, when he finds himself slightly uncovered.

He is pretty much always looking to facilitate, or otherwise hand the ball off to keep the offense moving.

Opposing defenses are keenly aware of this.

If I was Mike Brown, I'd be coaching Domas up the same way he does Keegan. To start off next preseason and beyond, I'd be pressuring to immediately shoot it when he's uncovered at the elbows (and further out at the 3-point line). And if he doesn't pull the trigger, start calling immediate timeouts to yell at him or remove him from the game -- just like he does with Keegan.

The dude just simply has to start taking and making those shots for the KINGS offense to take another step or two forward.

As you've said, the KINGS need to know whether he can get the job done with a much larger sample size of shots. He's been consistent from 3 the past 2 seasons, shooting 37% but on only an average of 1 attempt per game. IMO a good goal to have is to double or triple the average shot attempt total. Doing so could go a long way in forcing defenses to respect him thus creating more space.

In terms of perimeter shots inside the arc near the top of the key and at the elbows, taking more of those will most certainly drop his overall 59-60% shooting, but he's gotta do it. He may not be a great shooter, but he's certainly good enough to make teams respect him if he consistently starts taking more of them.

Get Luke Loucks to work tirelesslessly with him all off-season like he did with De'Aaron starting a couple off-seasons ago. If Swipa's stroke and confidence can improve as it has, there's no reason Domas can't either. It's not like he has an odd, unorthodox, or otherwise broken motion.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

So I think there's a core of four (Sabonis, Fox, Murray, Monk) a role player I'd hate to see the Kings move on from (Ellis) and then everyone else.

I see it the exact same way.