I like Burke a lot better than Carter-Williams, who doesn't have the quickness, outside shot, or court awareness that I want from a pg. He's disappeared in too many games this year. He doesn't have the ability to continually put pressure on the defense with his ability to penetrate the opposing D. He's going to need some considerable time imo in order to figure out where he fits in the NBA. Reminds me in a way of Tyreke, where he's a "basketball player" and can do things on the floor, including play D, but there has been a lot of dispute on which position he should play. I could see Carter-Williams playing a 3 with his length and defensive ability, but that presumes he can consistently hit the outside shot. With Burke, you know what he is.
2013 Draft Prospects
- Thread starter Vlade4GM
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I like this kid Early with Witchita State. I don't know if anybody has commented on this kid, but he oozes talent (potential). Has the length to play a 3(looks to be 6'7" from the eyeball test) , the speed, quickness, anticipation to the ball, seems to have a nice outside shot and good form, gets rebs, and has all the athletic ability you could want to eventually be a very good defender in the NBA. His coach says that he has the ability to be a star, and I see why.
I agree with MassachusettsKingsFan on this one. I like Carter Williams more than Burke too. He's sometimes shown questionable decision-making this season-- I'd all but given up on him by the end of the season, but he's showing in the tournament that the talent is still there. And when he's on his game he's really something to watch. The problem though is that he can't score from the perimeter and he was so hot early in the season that other teams started to gameplan around forcing him to be a scorer and he wasn't able to adjust. Like everyone else in this draft he's going to be a project, but he's got some intriguing skills. He's a real pest defensively in the backcourt too. I wouldn't trust him with a starting PG spot but as a facilitator on the wing or a 6th man he could be an interesting piece. Burke to me is a little too shoot-first and a little too out of control for my liking, but I'm frequently wrong about evaluating college PGs so I'm not going to make any predictions, just say that I'm personally not sold on him as a starting PG in the NBA either and unlike Carter Williams, I don't think he has the versatility to thrive in a support role. But like I said, I don't even trust my opinion on college PGs anymore. The guy on Michigan I'm keeping on eye on is Mitch McGary. He's been huge in Michigan's three tournament games so far. I don't know if he's for real yet or not, but we get at least one more game to try and figure that out.
Even if Carter-Williams were a 6'2" PG, I'd still have him in the mid lottery, rather than the early part of the lottery. Yeah, I'm unnaturally high on the guy because I think he's the sort of guy who would thrive in the NBA's open court game with his ability to create deflections and orchestrate the team. Yeah, there's real concerns about his jumper and how his numbers before the tourney tailed off somewhat, but still, it's rare to see that combination of height+passing.
Carter-Williams vs. Trey Burke in the Final Four. That should be fun.
The two best PG's in college basketball this year, in my opinion, and both guys led their team to this point. Speaks to the importance of that position. I say top 2 because I'm not sure how much of a PG Marcus Smart is.
I think the ability to play off the ball plays a huge part in the type of PG we need for this team, and in that particular category I think Carter-Williams is a better fit than Burke. It's early, though.
The two best PG's in college basketball this year, in my opinion, and both guys led their team to this point. Speaks to the importance of that position. I say top 2 because I'm not sure how much of a PG Marcus Smart is.
I think the ability to play off the ball plays a huge part in the type of PG we need for this team, and in that particular category I think Carter-Williams is a better fit than Burke. It's early, though.
Well I'm back from 5 days of non stop basketball.
I'm still leaning toward Burke, at least in the short term. I'll admit that I have a problem with Syracuse players. I've been bitten by them too many times. I'll convince myself that their really good, and then they get into the NBA and flop. Not saying that will happen with Williams, but none the less, it scares me. He's obviously talented, but a couple of games aside, he only shot 29% from the three this season. One game does not a career make. Long team, he may well be the better player, but short term, I have to go with Burke, who by the way, was sick as a dog with the flu in that last game. It should be fun to see if Burke can break down the Syracuse defense. If anyone can beat that defense its Michigan with their outside shooting.
By the way, what the hell happened to Tim Hardaway Jr.? He can't hit the ocean with a bee bee lately.
I'm still leaning toward Burke, at least in the short term. I'll admit that I have a problem with Syracuse players. I've been bitten by them too many times. I'll convince myself that their really good, and then they get into the NBA and flop. Not saying that will happen with Williams, but none the less, it scares me. He's obviously talented, but a couple of games aside, he only shot 29% from the three this season. One game does not a career make. Long team, he may well be the better player, but short term, I have to go with Burke, who by the way, was sick as a dog with the flu in that last game. It should be fun to see if Burke can break down the Syracuse defense. If anyone can beat that defense its Michigan with their outside shooting.
By the way, what the hell happened to Tim Hardaway Jr.? He can't hit the ocean with a bee bee lately.
I had to mention McGary. He's having a hell of a tournament, and looks like a real legit prospect. I was mystified all year as to why he was getting so few minutes, and then the announcer mentioned that he was struggling with attention defecit syndrome. Apparently whatever the problem was, they've solved it, because he has been playing great. He has very good lateral quickness for a big guy, and is more athletic than he appears. He's made a huge difference for Michigan, giving them an inside threat they didn't have before.
As I mentioned my mistrust of Syracuse players before, it also affects my opinion of C.J. Fair. I really want to like Fair. He's really improved every year, and has prototypical size and athleticism for the SF position. I was sorry to see Indiana go, only because I wanted to see more of Oladipo in the tourney. Not that sorry to see Cody Zeller gone though. He was absolutely terrible in that last game, and what happened in that game, is what I suspected would happen in the NBA. I can see Zeller playing in the league, but not as an impact player. The best player on that team is Oladipo.
As I've been watching Tyreke improving as a distributer, driving into the lane and dishing, I'm finally ready to say that starting him at the PG position, with a good head coach, and a Kyle Korver type player at the SF Position, and perhaps Oladipo at the SG position, would be beneficial to the team. Tyreke's only major flaw right now is poor decisions from time to time. A good coach would help him with that. And having a Korver to kick the ball to on one side, and Oladipo on the other side, with Cuz in the post, he could easily rack up 9 assists a game. And you would have one of the tallest and best defensive backcourts in the NBA. Anyway, something to think about..
By the way, if we could lure Phil Jackson to the Kings, I doubt we'd have any trouble attracting freeagents. Hey, money talks, and just maybe he has a bone to pick with the Lakers. No better time than now! Kick them while their down is my motto.
As I mentioned my mistrust of Syracuse players before, it also affects my opinion of C.J. Fair. I really want to like Fair. He's really improved every year, and has prototypical size and athleticism for the SF position. I was sorry to see Indiana go, only because I wanted to see more of Oladipo in the tourney. Not that sorry to see Cody Zeller gone though. He was absolutely terrible in that last game, and what happened in that game, is what I suspected would happen in the NBA. I can see Zeller playing in the league, but not as an impact player. The best player on that team is Oladipo.
As I've been watching Tyreke improving as a distributer, driving into the lane and dishing, I'm finally ready to say that starting him at the PG position, with a good head coach, and a Kyle Korver type player at the SF Position, and perhaps Oladipo at the SG position, would be beneficial to the team. Tyreke's only major flaw right now is poor decisions from time to time. A good coach would help him with that. And having a Korver to kick the ball to on one side, and Oladipo on the other side, with Cuz in the post, he could easily rack up 9 assists a game. And you would have one of the tallest and best defensive backcourts in the NBA. Anyway, something to think about..
By the way, if we could lure Phil Jackson to the Kings, I doubt we'd have any trouble attracting freeagents. Hey, money talks, and just maybe he has a bone to pick with the Lakers. No better time than now! Kick them while their down is my motto.
I fail to see what the big fuss is about Carter-Williams. Can't shoot, TO-prone - no NBA coach will trust him with running the team. Reminds me a bit of Alvin Williams with a worse jumpshot. I think his ceiling is that of a borderline starter but most likely have a Marty Collins type career.
Quick question: who is the last player who failed to crack 40% FG in his last year of collegeball to be drafted in the first round? I honestly can't think of any.
Quick question: who is the last player who failed to crack 40% FG in his last year of collegeball to be drafted in the first round? I honestly can't think of any.
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Agree about Fair, who I don't like, and Oladipo, who I do. I don't see Tyreke as pg, however. At the end of his 4th year, he is what he is. He's a good decision/assist maker from the 2 position, not the 1. At the 1 he makes too many brain dead TOs and still doesn't bring the ball up the floor and start the offense with any alacrity. Still can't run a fast break with consistency like you need. Still goes one on two, one on three at very inopportune times. Still gets lost on D when he shouldn't (and by lost I mean lose his man entirely). I think with a good coach he'd probably get some rough edges off his game, but I doubt he'd be quality pg material, more like a consistent offensive and defensive 2 guard.
You could be right. No way to tell until you put a good coach in place. Remember, Westphal basicly let Tyreke do whatever he wanted out there. One has to wonder how much better Tyreke would be if he was under a good coach from the beginning. Every PG out of college is going to make mistakes. Some more than others, depending on the experience they have at that position. I've been watching Tyreke very closely the last 20 or so games, and his decisions as a creator have improved dramaticly. Some of that has to do with Patrick Patterson, who is the recepient of a lot Tyreke's passes.
However, he still manages to make somewhere around 4 bad decisions per game on average, and thats too many. Thats where a good coach comes in. I think a good coach can significantly reduce those bad decisions by keeping a tighter reign on Tyreke. I guess my point is, that Tyreke seems more willing to be a facillitator than he has in the past. So with the right coach, I would like to give it try. You have to admit, a backcourt of Tyreke and Oladipo would be a terrific defensive backcourt. That alone might make it worth trying.
However, he still manages to make somewhere around 4 bad decisions per game on average, and thats too many. Thats where a good coach comes in. I think a good coach can significantly reduce those bad decisions by keeping a tighter reign on Tyreke. I guess my point is, that Tyreke seems more willing to be a facillitator than he has in the past. So with the right coach, I would like to give it try. You have to admit, a backcourt of Tyreke and Oladipo would be a terrific defensive backcourt. That alone might make it worth trying.
Yes finally someone agrees with me! This has been my angle for years -- start with the defensive end. Build a dominant defensive team and it takes the pressure off the offense since you won't have to convert every time down the floor to win. Tyreke isn't the type of PG who's going to step on the floor and create offense for everybody, but in a structured system where you're using the full shot clock and running multiple guys off of screens so there are options and the reads are consistent, I think his size and driving ability could make him dangerous as the point man. It's sortof like having a dual option QB. If nothing else is there, he can create something with his ability to get into the lane, but that shouldn't be the entirety of the offense, as it often was under Westphal. (Smart moved Tyreke off the ball pretty quickly into his tenure and Westphal didn't believe in structured offense so I still don't think he's been given a chance to learn how to run a team properly in the NBA)
Tyreke has shown over and over again that he's very good as an on-the-ball defender but gets lost a lot in the team defense. A good defensive coach can show him the tape and tell him what to do differently, where he can cheat off his man on the weak side and where he has to remain close enough to contest. But putting him back on-the-ball, defending the other team's PG is still probably where he's going to be most effective. And Oladipo is a terrific wing defender because he'll get up in your face when you have the ball and he'll chase you all over the floor. Every team needs somebody like that at one of the wing positions.
Then again, we almost never draft who I want us to draft (Cousins being the lone exception) so I'm not getting my hopes up.
Tyreke has shown over and over again that he's very good as an on-the-ball defender but gets lost a lot in the team defense. A good defensive coach can show him the tape and tell him what to do differently, where he can cheat off his man on the weak side and where he has to remain close enough to contest. But putting him back on-the-ball, defending the other team's PG is still probably where he's going to be most effective. And Oladipo is a terrific wing defender because he'll get up in your face when you have the ball and he'll chase you all over the floor. Every team needs somebody like that at one of the wing positions.
Then again, we almost never draft who I want us to draft (Cousins being the lone exception) so I'm not getting my hopes up.
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I think were in agreement on this one. Oladipo is also a very good spot up shooter. The more you spread the floor, the easier it is for Tyreke to create off the dribble, either for himself, or for someone else. And, the easier it is for Cuz in the post. If they collapse on Tyreke of Cuz, they can kick it to a wing position for an open shot. So it would be pick your poison. Good perimeter defense also takes the pressure off the interior defense. Most bigs get their fouls trying to stop the ball in the hands of a quicker player. A good weakside shotblocker wouldn't hurt either..
I agree with all of that. Inserting an excellent coach would be the control experiment and we would know with a capital K. It may be that a new coach comes in here and doesn't believe Tyreke is a pg (see George Karl), however, in which case he's not going to spend the next couple of years trying to put the round peg in the square hole. We will see. From my perspective I see Tyreke having advantages in passing the ball and making decisions from the 2 position, not the 1.
Of the guys that entered the draft/returned to school:
Staying in draft:
SMART MOVE, BUT OVERRATED?:
1) Anthony Bennett. I thought he really slipped towards the end of the season, and I think he can be an overrated pick now if he's drafted in the lottery. There's always a few of those that populate every draft. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's still a first round pick, but I think he's 19th overall in terms of ability now, rather than the 8th or whatever I had him early in the season. Obviously it's a no brainer for him to declare if he's projected to be anywhere in the lottery or mid-1st round, but for the record we drafted Jimmer in the mid-lotto and I ranked him 22nd...and we kind of saw how that turned out a bit. I mean, obviously he's still an NBA player, but he might not justify the return based on his draft positioning. That's where GM gamesmanship comes into play--value relative to position is just as important as overall player value.
SMART MOVE:
1) Steven Adams. I thought this was a smart move. He's super young, got NBA size, an NBA frame, can really make defensive plays, and is at least a tick above average in NBA rebounding, even if his offense and handles are all kinds of broke at this stage and might never cut it for the NBA. But, defensively, there's potential. Still, I have him as a mid 1st rounder (17th), and had he returned to school his mean suggests 26th in the deeper draft, so this was definitely a smart choice. He'll probably be drafted relative to his talent level as well.
2) Sergey Karasev. Smart move as well. Mid-1st rounder this year (20th), next year he would have been 28th at the mean. He can probably alternate between both swing positions in the NBA, looks the part of the NBA small forward and can shoot, pass and handle the basketball. He's sorely lacking in defensive ability and rebounding, but he's one of those refined players on offense and it's always worth it to take a gamble on those in the NBA.
3) Lorenzo Brown. This was a good move because there's no way his value will be as high as it is right now. He's already three years into college, and the draft doesn't take kindly to four-year types in the first round, from past experience. Still, there's a cap to his talent level, and I have him as a late 1st rounder (26th), although that's better than his mean position for next year (32nd). His best asset is largely his height in combination with his passing, because his offensive elusiveness and shooting are just about average at best, and his defensive playmaking and rebounding are decent but not mindboggling.
4) CJ Aiken. This is probably the WTF prospect in my list. No one likely has Aiken even sniffing the 2nd round in this year's draft, but I kind of like his game. Particularly his ability to make a ton of defensive plays without fouling. I know, Shawn James in college was the same way, but I think Aiken also has a decent offensive framework and surprising touch for a big. Yeah, he's probably too skinny and seriously has a rebounding problem, and has a Josh Smith-ian type desire to launch three point bricks, but it kind of reminds me of Dallas's Brandan Wright. He'll therefore have to be used situationally probably against run-and-gun type teams where his strength is less of an issue. He's also very old for a college player as well, but age matters less for the NBA. But still, given his age, he probably needed to declare for the draft, but I think he has the goods and potential to be an interesting NBA player. Needs the right team. Can be a steal even in the late 1st, that's how high I am on this guy.
5) Allen Crabbe. Crabbe made the right move, since there's no way he'd be improve his stock spending four years in college, and he is what he is--has some NBA size, a good shooter with a decent offensive framework. Not much with regards to defensive playmaking and handles, although he's an OK rebounder. He's a bubble 1st rounder in my mock.
BAD MOVE?:
1) Archie Goodwin. My opinion of Goodwin radically changed from the last time I saw him. Somewhere, perhaps ~15 games into the season, I had him in the late lottery, but another 20 games later he drops like a rock to his current position on my board, 45th. That second half of his college career was so absolutely brutal I'm not sure what he is as a NBA prospect anymore. I tend to think he's a bit interchangeable. If Alex Poythress returned to school, he should as well (granted, though, Goodwin was higher on my board, but still, I look at him and Poythress as three-year prospects as the mean). He should definitely have stayed at least another year in college to see if he could right the ship, because now he could get lost in someone's bench in the NBA. His shooting, defensive playmaking and handles are just not up to par and need some serious seasoning. Of course he'll be drafted higher because the 2nd round is a crapshoot, he's a highly touted high schooler and teams always love that, but for the player's sake he needs to refine his game. It will be harder to do that in the NBA, even if his athletic game might cater better to the NBA's open court style.
2) Tony Mitchell. I know, shocker right? Those who have followed my draft evaluations in the process know me as "playing favorites" with any sort of young jumping jack athletic freak, but of course not all of them succeed in the league. That's why this year I started to focus more on player positions. And man--Mitchell plays for a team that doesn't face much high level competition at all, and passes/handles the basketball like a center. He's 6'8", so that's a huge turnoff for the NBA. And all his numbers tailed off this year badly, and he's had some headcase issues. So I thought this was a bad decision, and I thought he could have used another year to try to prove the naysayers wrong or something, because he's entering at the lowest point of his value right now. I don't even him as being drafted, talentwise, due to the positional concerns, really. Yeah, he will be drafted--his game thrives in the NBA's faster pace/open court, and he'll be used for specific purposes as an uber weakside defender and a crazy transition player--but at the same time he just feels so undeveloped at this point that he could be a bust. I don't know. Kind of mixed on him, but don't think he should have entered the draft.
3) BJ Young. I don't get this one at all. Wasn't a fan of BJ Young at the halfway point of the season, and now...also no. He's undersized, underweight, has zero PG skills, little defensive playmaking/rebounding ability, average offensive elusiveness and average shooting ability. Average competition as well. No real skills for the NBA level IMO. That all adds up to undrafted by a wide mile for me, and he might regret this decision, and find the NBA far more daunting than whatever his expectations were, because I don't think his game will translate that well. I saw him as a four-year college player really, but anyway could have used more seasoning to hone specific parts of his game (i.e. shooting/passing/defense) in college.
4) CJ Leslie. Uhhhh...not a fan of this one either. He's a favorite among draft mockers because he's been around forever and had the hype since high school, so they always feel compelled to place him somewhere in the first round because they've known him so well. I kind of look at him as a wreck on offense, poor shooting, nothing special offensive framework, center-like passing/handles and he's 6'9". Just an average rebounder at the league. Best asset is his length and his ability to make defensive plays. Really, I thought he was undrafted material this year, but given that he's a three-year player, I can understand why he's compelled to jump the gun given that some teams will bite on his past accolades, and given that the NBA never takes kindly to four-year players. He's the type where we know some teams are going to draft in the late 1st/early 2nd round, and he might be a bust in the late 1st in particular, FYI.'
5) Marshawn Powell. Hello, Europe. Not even close to being NBA caliber, in any draft.
6) Amath M'Baye. Hello, Europe. Not even close to being NBA caliber, in any draft.
7) Norvell Pelle. Who?
Undecided to stay in draft:
1) Tony Snell. The good news...talentwise in this year's crop, he should be drafted, if he opts to stay in. 41st to be exact. Not sure if he can stick in the league, but at least there's that. He's kind of in that zone most juniors are stuck in...they want to test their draft stock, they realize they're somewhere in the 2nd round, then there's that conundrum...should I stay in school, or jump where my value's most high, given that the NBA hates four-year college players nowadays? Snell looks the part of the NBA SF, has some handles/passing for the position and has NBA-caliber offensive elusiveness with good shooting, so despite subpar rebounding and seriously deficient defensive playmaking I think there's a chance he can stick. I kind of think he should stick in the draft because I doubt it will be this high next year.
2) Eric Moreland. Seriously underrated prospect. I even have him as a lottery-caliber player in this year's draft, next year he's 21st at the mean. Of course no one has him that high, much less even in the draft...which suggests that he can be a steal even in the late 1st round. Moreland can't shoot and lacks strength, but that's really the extent of his weaknesses. He looks the part of the NBA PF, is an elite rebounder for the position, makes a ton of defensive plays and draws a ton of fouls. He's definitely NBA caliber and should really be getting serious looks, and should stick in the draft.
Staying in draft:
SMART MOVE, BUT OVERRATED?:
1) Anthony Bennett. I thought he really slipped towards the end of the season, and I think he can be an overrated pick now if he's drafted in the lottery. There's always a few of those that populate every draft. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's still a first round pick, but I think he's 19th overall in terms of ability now, rather than the 8th or whatever I had him early in the season. Obviously it's a no brainer for him to declare if he's projected to be anywhere in the lottery or mid-1st round, but for the record we drafted Jimmer in the mid-lotto and I ranked him 22nd...and we kind of saw how that turned out a bit. I mean, obviously he's still an NBA player, but he might not justify the return based on his draft positioning. That's where GM gamesmanship comes into play--value relative to position is just as important as overall player value.
SMART MOVE:
1) Steven Adams. I thought this was a smart move. He's super young, got NBA size, an NBA frame, can really make defensive plays, and is at least a tick above average in NBA rebounding, even if his offense and handles are all kinds of broke at this stage and might never cut it for the NBA. But, defensively, there's potential. Still, I have him as a mid 1st rounder (17th), and had he returned to school his mean suggests 26th in the deeper draft, so this was definitely a smart choice. He'll probably be drafted relative to his talent level as well.
2) Sergey Karasev. Smart move as well. Mid-1st rounder this year (20th), next year he would have been 28th at the mean. He can probably alternate between both swing positions in the NBA, looks the part of the NBA small forward and can shoot, pass and handle the basketball. He's sorely lacking in defensive ability and rebounding, but he's one of those refined players on offense and it's always worth it to take a gamble on those in the NBA.
3) Lorenzo Brown. This was a good move because there's no way his value will be as high as it is right now. He's already three years into college, and the draft doesn't take kindly to four-year types in the first round, from past experience. Still, there's a cap to his talent level, and I have him as a late 1st rounder (26th), although that's better than his mean position for next year (32nd). His best asset is largely his height in combination with his passing, because his offensive elusiveness and shooting are just about average at best, and his defensive playmaking and rebounding are decent but not mindboggling.
4) CJ Aiken. This is probably the WTF prospect in my list. No one likely has Aiken even sniffing the 2nd round in this year's draft, but I kind of like his game. Particularly his ability to make a ton of defensive plays without fouling. I know, Shawn James in college was the same way, but I think Aiken also has a decent offensive framework and surprising touch for a big. Yeah, he's probably too skinny and seriously has a rebounding problem, and has a Josh Smith-ian type desire to launch three point bricks, but it kind of reminds me of Dallas's Brandan Wright. He'll therefore have to be used situationally probably against run-and-gun type teams where his strength is less of an issue. He's also very old for a college player as well, but age matters less for the NBA. But still, given his age, he probably needed to declare for the draft, but I think he has the goods and potential to be an interesting NBA player. Needs the right team. Can be a steal even in the late 1st, that's how high I am on this guy.
5) Allen Crabbe. Crabbe made the right move, since there's no way he'd be improve his stock spending four years in college, and he is what he is--has some NBA size, a good shooter with a decent offensive framework. Not much with regards to defensive playmaking and handles, although he's an OK rebounder. He's a bubble 1st rounder in my mock.
BAD MOVE?:
1) Archie Goodwin. My opinion of Goodwin radically changed from the last time I saw him. Somewhere, perhaps ~15 games into the season, I had him in the late lottery, but another 20 games later he drops like a rock to his current position on my board, 45th. That second half of his college career was so absolutely brutal I'm not sure what he is as a NBA prospect anymore. I tend to think he's a bit interchangeable. If Alex Poythress returned to school, he should as well (granted, though, Goodwin was higher on my board, but still, I look at him and Poythress as three-year prospects as the mean). He should definitely have stayed at least another year in college to see if he could right the ship, because now he could get lost in someone's bench in the NBA. His shooting, defensive playmaking and handles are just not up to par and need some serious seasoning. Of course he'll be drafted higher because the 2nd round is a crapshoot, he's a highly touted high schooler and teams always love that, but for the player's sake he needs to refine his game. It will be harder to do that in the NBA, even if his athletic game might cater better to the NBA's open court style.
2) Tony Mitchell. I know, shocker right? Those who have followed my draft evaluations in the process know me as "playing favorites" with any sort of young jumping jack athletic freak, but of course not all of them succeed in the league. That's why this year I started to focus more on player positions. And man--Mitchell plays for a team that doesn't face much high level competition at all, and passes/handles the basketball like a center. He's 6'8", so that's a huge turnoff for the NBA. And all his numbers tailed off this year badly, and he's had some headcase issues. So I thought this was a bad decision, and I thought he could have used another year to try to prove the naysayers wrong or something, because he's entering at the lowest point of his value right now. I don't even him as being drafted, talentwise, due to the positional concerns, really. Yeah, he will be drafted--his game thrives in the NBA's faster pace/open court, and he'll be used for specific purposes as an uber weakside defender and a crazy transition player--but at the same time he just feels so undeveloped at this point that he could be a bust. I don't know. Kind of mixed on him, but don't think he should have entered the draft.
3) BJ Young. I don't get this one at all. Wasn't a fan of BJ Young at the halfway point of the season, and now...also no. He's undersized, underweight, has zero PG skills, little defensive playmaking/rebounding ability, average offensive elusiveness and average shooting ability. Average competition as well. No real skills for the NBA level IMO. That all adds up to undrafted by a wide mile for me, and he might regret this decision, and find the NBA far more daunting than whatever his expectations were, because I don't think his game will translate that well. I saw him as a four-year college player really, but anyway could have used more seasoning to hone specific parts of his game (i.e. shooting/passing/defense) in college.
4) CJ Leslie. Uhhhh...not a fan of this one either. He's a favorite among draft mockers because he's been around forever and had the hype since high school, so they always feel compelled to place him somewhere in the first round because they've known him so well. I kind of look at him as a wreck on offense, poor shooting, nothing special offensive framework, center-like passing/handles and he's 6'9". Just an average rebounder at the league. Best asset is his length and his ability to make defensive plays. Really, I thought he was undrafted material this year, but given that he's a three-year player, I can understand why he's compelled to jump the gun given that some teams will bite on his past accolades, and given that the NBA never takes kindly to four-year players. He's the type where we know some teams are going to draft in the late 1st/early 2nd round, and he might be a bust in the late 1st in particular, FYI.'
5) Marshawn Powell. Hello, Europe. Not even close to being NBA caliber, in any draft.
6) Amath M'Baye. Hello, Europe. Not even close to being NBA caliber, in any draft.
7) Norvell Pelle. Who?
Undecided to stay in draft:
1) Tony Snell. The good news...talentwise in this year's crop, he should be drafted, if he opts to stay in. 41st to be exact. Not sure if he can stick in the league, but at least there's that. He's kind of in that zone most juniors are stuck in...they want to test their draft stock, they realize they're somewhere in the 2nd round, then there's that conundrum...should I stay in school, or jump where my value's most high, given that the NBA hates four-year college players nowadays? Snell looks the part of the NBA SF, has some handles/passing for the position and has NBA-caliber offensive elusiveness with good shooting, so despite subpar rebounding and seriously deficient defensive playmaking I think there's a chance he can stick. I kind of think he should stick in the draft because I doubt it will be this high next year.
2) Eric Moreland. Seriously underrated prospect. I even have him as a lottery-caliber player in this year's draft, next year he's 21st at the mean. Of course no one has him that high, much less even in the draft...which suggests that he can be a steal even in the late 1st round. Moreland can't shoot and lacks strength, but that's really the extent of his weaknesses. He looks the part of the NBA PF, is an elite rebounder for the position, makes a ton of defensive plays and draws a ton of fouls. He's definitely NBA caliber and should really be getting serious looks, and should stick in the draft.
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Returning to school:
SMART MOVE:
1) Alex Poythress. Super smart move to return to school. I can't get past the tweener status thing, but if he can resolve his position further (read: fine tuning the jumper, refining the ballhandling, and/or developing passing ability) he can make a huge jump next year. It's not out of the realm of possibility. As of now, if I were ignoring all the past hoopla and just looking at his freshman year in a vacuum, I'm looking at him as a three-year prospect. These types of issues don't get resolved overnight. I'm not crazy about is upside, but I think he can look at Harrison Barnes as a possible guide: highly acclaimed guy out of high school, had similar issues in college, spent three years at a highly touted program, becomes lotto pick, starts for playoff team. I think Barnes is still overrated offensively, but defensively he's GSW's better ones, for sure. Poythress strikes me as a role player and will follow that kind of trajectory.
2) Mitch McGary. Super smart move to return to school. He needs more games like this before I can buy into the hype. But really, I'm looking at him as at least a three-year prospect, kind of like Poythress. He was a late riser in high school too, but his inability to handle the ball, hit jumpers or draw fouls really puts a ceiling on him as a prospect anyway, so I'm not sure if I'm really buying the hype. It's one thing if he's a jumping jack 7-footer and doing that, but he isn't. He's one of those rugged hard working rebounding active types, and those need more years of polish. As I mentioned, three-year prospect IMO.
OK MOVE:
1) Dwight Powell. It's a mixed bag for Powell, who I thought had the talent to be a bubble 1st rounder, but more likely an early 2nd round pick, in this year's draft. But since I had him as an early 2nd rounder, if he feels that he can improve with another year, then he should stay in school. But no one would have faulted him had he rolled the dice and attempted to stay in the draft. He's kind of in that draft zone where it's his choice to decide whether to stay or leave. FYI, I had him as 32nd in this year's draft, but 36th in next year's--so he needs to improve to really justify staying. The draft doesn't tend to be super kind to four-year players in general.
2) Kyle Wiltjer. I kind of liked Wiltjer as well. Yeah, no one thinks he should leave now, because face it, most one-dimensional shooters need to spend four years in college, but at the same time I feel that his game and his frame are NBA ready, and he's not too different from the utility shooters that populate the league. Every team needs one for floor spacing purposes. I had him as a late 1st rounder this year (29th), and like Powell if he stays given the depth next year he drops to 34th in the mean. Of course he can improve, and we'll see, as he'll be a junior next year.
BAD MOVE?:
1) Willie Cauley. Returning to school--eh. This could have gone either way, but I think he would have been better off actually declaring and staying in the draft. I had him as the 23rd pick this year, and that's even considering how weak this draft is. Next year, while he's still an underclassman, it's deeper, and I tentatively have him as the 28th pick at the mean. And that's not even accounting for various confounding variables like other players who rise up or if Cauley develops injury problems, etc. It's a mixed decision, but I think he would be better off staying in.
SMART MOVE:
1) Alex Poythress. Super smart move to return to school. I can't get past the tweener status thing, but if he can resolve his position further (read: fine tuning the jumper, refining the ballhandling, and/or developing passing ability) he can make a huge jump next year. It's not out of the realm of possibility. As of now, if I were ignoring all the past hoopla and just looking at his freshman year in a vacuum, I'm looking at him as a three-year prospect. These types of issues don't get resolved overnight. I'm not crazy about is upside, but I think he can look at Harrison Barnes as a possible guide: highly acclaimed guy out of high school, had similar issues in college, spent three years at a highly touted program, becomes lotto pick, starts for playoff team. I think Barnes is still overrated offensively, but defensively he's GSW's better ones, for sure. Poythress strikes me as a role player and will follow that kind of trajectory.
2) Mitch McGary. Super smart move to return to school. He needs more games like this before I can buy into the hype. But really, I'm looking at him as at least a three-year prospect, kind of like Poythress. He was a late riser in high school too, but his inability to handle the ball, hit jumpers or draw fouls really puts a ceiling on him as a prospect anyway, so I'm not sure if I'm really buying the hype. It's one thing if he's a jumping jack 7-footer and doing that, but he isn't. He's one of those rugged hard working rebounding active types, and those need more years of polish. As I mentioned, three-year prospect IMO.
OK MOVE:
1) Dwight Powell. It's a mixed bag for Powell, who I thought had the talent to be a bubble 1st rounder, but more likely an early 2nd round pick, in this year's draft. But since I had him as an early 2nd rounder, if he feels that he can improve with another year, then he should stay in school. But no one would have faulted him had he rolled the dice and attempted to stay in the draft. He's kind of in that draft zone where it's his choice to decide whether to stay or leave. FYI, I had him as 32nd in this year's draft, but 36th in next year's--so he needs to improve to really justify staying. The draft doesn't tend to be super kind to four-year players in general.
2) Kyle Wiltjer. I kind of liked Wiltjer as well. Yeah, no one thinks he should leave now, because face it, most one-dimensional shooters need to spend four years in college, but at the same time I feel that his game and his frame are NBA ready, and he's not too different from the utility shooters that populate the league. Every team needs one for floor spacing purposes. I had him as a late 1st rounder this year (29th), and like Powell if he stays given the depth next year he drops to 34th in the mean. Of course he can improve, and we'll see, as he'll be a junior next year.
BAD MOVE?:
1) Willie Cauley. Returning to school--eh. This could have gone either way, but I think he would have been better off actually declaring and staying in the draft. I had him as the 23rd pick this year, and that's even considering how weak this draft is. Next year, while he's still an underclassman, it's deeper, and I tentatively have him as the 28th pick at the mean. And that's not even accounting for various confounding variables like other players who rise up or if Cauley develops injury problems, etc. It's a mixed decision, but I think he would be better off staying in.
I was really surprised as well. I really thought he would stay another year. It possible that he knows this is a weak draft, and next years isn't, so he decided to go for the money. He's still raw in a lot of areas, but he's a good athlete with great size. He's the kind of guy that ends up sliding down to the Thunder's and Spurs of the world. Which would be good for him.
Agree on Stein. I do think another year of school will really help him, and he only adds to the depth of next years draft. However, I had him going somewhere between 9 and 15 in this years draft. Next year, he could drop all the way down to 23 or 24. Of course thats based on what we know now, about him, and the potential of incoming players. He can change that scenario by having a breakout year and propell himself into the top ten. So the jury is still out on his decision.
As stated in an earlier post, I wouldn't give you the dynamite to blow Leslie to hell. He's not worth it. Good move by Poythress to stat another year. He needs it. Wiltjer is, well, Wiltjer! Good shooter, and not much more. Poor athlete that can't jump and can't move quick enough for the NBA. But the dude can shoot, so someone somewhere will find a way to use him. Powell isn't that much of a surprise. He just had his best year, and if he's drafted, and I think he will be, it'll be higher than next year would be.
McGary made the right decision. However, I think if he continues to impress in whats left of the tournament, he would have been drafted higher than most people think. The league is thirsty for good big men, and he certainly would draw some interest.
As stated in an earlier post, I wouldn't give you the dynamite to blow Leslie to hell. He's not worth it. Good move by Poythress to stat another year. He needs it. Wiltjer is, well, Wiltjer! Good shooter, and not much more. Poor athlete that can't jump and can't move quick enough for the NBA. But the dude can shoot, so someone somewhere will find a way to use him. Powell isn't that much of a surprise. He just had his best year, and if he's drafted, and I think he will be, it'll be higher than next year would be.
McGary made the right decision. However, I think if he continues to impress in whats left of the tournament, he would have been drafted higher than most people think. The league is thirsty for good big men, and he certainly would draw some interest.
Your not alone. I was very pleased with his improvement throughout the year. One possible plus, is that if for some reason we're in the lottery, either with our own pick, or with an acquired one, we may still have a shot at him next year with all the other talent in the draft. Of course if I had to choose between him and Wiggins, I just lean toward Wiggins.. But you never know...
Apparently McGary is having a change of heart about entering the draft. He tweeted that he was misunderstood when he said he was definitely returning for his sophmore year, and that now it is just concentrating on Syracuse. It's rumored that NBA scouts have started to reconsider McGarys value and now see him as a likely first rounder based on how he's playing. One more good game, and he might be a lock to declare. I think he's someone we'd have to take a look at depending on where were seeded in the draft.
I really like what I have seen of McGary. He is a good passer and rebounder, and seems to have a good feel around the basket to go along with a decent mid-range game. Not sure how good he is defensively though. I have seen some comparisons to David Lee, but think he is a little bigger than Lee (but not as athletic).
Misunderstood or someone told him he's a top 10 pick right now? Basketball wise he's probably better off long-term staying another year and building on what he's done here in the tournament but the economics of the situation dictate that he really ought to take advantage of the situation and strike while the iron's hot. You never know what could happen a year down the line. His stock his hotter than anyone's and one more good game and a national championship probably pushes him firmly into the top 5. Everyone else either struggled down the stretch or isn't playing. This will be a big game for Burke as well to redeem himself a bit from the poor performance against Syracuse's tough defense.
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