John Henson the best fit next to Cousins?
- Thread starter BMiller52
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Can't see him dropping to us at this point... amazing physical speciman and 2nd youngest player in the draft. One year of semi-disappointing productivity at a program that wasn't setup to play to his strengths isn't gonna drop this guy to 5 I don't think. Or maybe I'm overreacting to the combine... tough to tell! =D
It's one thing if a player lacks motivation despite super talent. But when you need that player for his defense, I think that's the big issue. People say DeAndre Jordan and Joel Anthony as worst case scenarios, but the issue with those guys is not effort, it's skill and coordination. They were second round picks. Drummond's worst case is a guy like Hilton Armstrong or Patrick O'Bryant.
Drummond is athletic and skilled enough so that he can be semi-motivated and still become a playable center, just not the kind we need. Defense is all about effort and "motor," and if we're looking for Drummond to be that guy next to Cousins, we have a huge risk of being disappointed. Drummond's floor will not be a decent defensive center, it will be a bad defender who can make highlight blocks and dunks.
Drummond is athletic and skilled enough so that he can be semi-motivated and still become a playable center, just not the kind we need. Defense is all about effort and "motor," and if we're looking for Drummond to be that guy next to Cousins, we have a huge risk of being disappointed. Drummond's floor will not be a decent defensive center, it will be a bad defender who can make highlight blocks and dunks.
He's 18 years old and already has one of the most impressive NBA bodies in the league. Are we sure he wasn't motivated or was he just adjusting to the college game? Shaq went for 13pts/12reb/3.6blks his freshman year at LSU before he blew up his sophmore season. Thing is Drummond's follow up act will be in the nba.
One thing they were saying at the combine was that in a work-out a week or two ago Drummond basically said his game is like Kevin Durant's. He was then asked, "You mean Kevin Garnett?". Drummond said, "No, Kevin Durant. People are going to be surprised at what I can do."
So this goes back to the High School mix video which was floating around a few days ago.
Does he really think his skill set is best served by mirroring Durant?
You want to hear him say that he'll be the next Dwight Howard, considering he has the body for it.
So maybe his poor play in college was due to the fact that he was asked to play like Dwight Howard rather than Kevin Durant, and he didn't appreciate it.
He clearly has the NBA body to be a stud defender in the NBA. Does he have the mentality and motor to actually get to that place.
There is a reason that he's considered one of the biggest high risk/high reward players out there.
I will say that if I knew for a fact that he'd reach 90% of his potential I'd take him #2 because he'd be such a good fit with Cousins...but he could completely bust out.
So this goes back to the High School mix video which was floating around a few days ago.
Does he really think his skill set is best served by mirroring Durant?
You want to hear him say that he'll be the next Dwight Howard, considering he has the body for it.
So maybe his poor play in college was due to the fact that he was asked to play like Dwight Howard rather than Kevin Durant, and he didn't appreciate it.
He clearly has the NBA body to be a stud defender in the NBA. Does he have the mentality and motor to actually get to that place.
There is a reason that he's considered one of the biggest high risk/high reward players out there.
I will say that if I knew for a fact that he'd reach 90% of his potential I'd take him #2 because he'd be such a good fit with Cousins...but he could completely bust out.
I have been saying this with increasing confidence, I do so again: I actually don;t think he's anything LIKE DeAndre Jordan, or Joel Anthony, or any of these other worst case scenarios. One of the things I said when I first posted that high school vid is he sometimes looked like Kemp during it, sometimes Webb with the passing. I've got a feeling that all this "high end Serge Ibaka low end DeAndre Jordan" type stuff that draftecpress has up is entirely missing the point wiht him. I don't think he is a limited skill defenisve shotblocker. I think by nature he may very well be a hyperatheltic faceup 4 ala a Kemp, except bigger.
Now can he control that/reach that potential? Unknown. But this constant refrain about how little basketball talent he has etc. I think falls much more upon Jim Calhoun than it does on Drummond. I think he's not only an amazing athelte, but quote possibly HIGHLY skilled for such a big guy, and views the defensive ability as just a limited part of his overall game. That both ups his superstar potential enormously, but also means that he's less of a sure thing as defensive stopper. My guess is that UConn took the air out of his tires a bit, told him to park in the post, took the ball out of his hands, and had him play a limited role that he probably found boring and frustrating. I would suspect that year was not representative of the type of player he's going to be. Whihc isn;t me saying he's going to be guaranteed to tear up the league. It is me saying that I think his STYLE of play may be a long way from what we saw at UConn, and peeps are going to be surprised/confused by it. I don't think you lose all your talent in 1 year jsut becasue you went to a college system that doesn't use it.
Now can he control that/reach that potential? Unknown. But this constant refrain about how little basketball talent he has etc. I think falls much more upon Jim Calhoun than it does on Drummond. I think he's not only an amazing athelte, but quote possibly HIGHLY skilled for such a big guy, and views the defensive ability as just a limited part of his overall game. That both ups his superstar potential enormously, but also means that he's less of a sure thing as defensive stopper. My guess is that UConn took the air out of his tires a bit, told him to park in the post, took the ball out of his hands, and had him play a limited role that he probably found boring and frustrating. I would suspect that year was not representative of the type of player he's going to be. Whihc isn;t me saying he's going to be guaranteed to tear up the league. It is me saying that I think his STYLE of play may be a long way from what we saw at UConn, and peeps are going to be surprised/confused by it. I don't think you lose all your talent in 1 year jsut becasue you went to a college system that doesn't use it.
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Sigh. As I keep saying, "not much skill" doesn't compute wiht this:
Btw:
Henson Frosh FT%: 43.8%
Robinson Frosh FT%: 39.5%
Webber Frosh FT%: 49.6%
Its a common problem amongst young bigs. 29.8% is extreme, but given the number of FTs he took its basically 6 missed FTs from Robinson's frosh year, or 8 missed FTs from Henson's. It normally works out.
Btw:
Henson Frosh FT%: 43.8%
Robinson Frosh FT%: 39.5%
Webber Frosh FT%: 49.6%
Its a common problem amongst young bigs. 29.8% is extreme, but given the number of FTs he took its basically 6 missed FTs from Robinson's frosh year, or 8 missed FTs from Henson's. It normally works out.
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Your attempt to discredit it is either not understanding the point or a bit dishonest. I'm going to assume its not understanding the point, and go through it again:
The kid in that video leads the break, drops an open court behind the back crossover on another kid, and swoops in for a layup. He throws behind the back passes. He lasers a pass through a gap between two guys that Nash would have had a hard time hitting. YOU CAN'T DO THOSE THINGS IF YOU ARE UNTALENTED. In fact you can't do those things unless you are VERY talented.
The tape doesn't prove he's going to dominate anybody. It doesn't prove he's motivated. It DOES prove that he is FAR more talented than the guys people try to compare him to.
The kid in that video leads the break, drops an open court behind the back crossover on another kid, and swoops in for a layup. He throws behind the back passes. He lasers a pass through a gap between two guys that Nash would have had a hard time hitting. YOU CAN'T DO THOSE THINGS IF YOU ARE UNTALENTED. In fact you can't do those things unless you are VERY talented.
The tape doesn't prove he's going to dominate anybody. It doesn't prove he's motivated. It DOES prove that he is FAR more talented than the guys people try to compare him to.
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That's not really relevant to the skills involved. Just because you're an adult playing against 10yr olds doesn't mean that you can throw behind the back passes and hit anybody with them.
Look, the only way that high school stuff DOESN'T matter is if you want to make the argument that DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert, and all the rest of those guys have high school tapes of them doing the same things hidden away in their sock drawers. Or unless you want to argue that a guy can forget how to do all those things and can lose all his talent in a single year of college.
And its not a question of whether Drummond is actually going to be throwing behind his back passes in the pros. Its a question that no guy his size without a TON of talent can do that at ANY age.
Look, the only way that high school stuff DOESN'T matter is if you want to make the argument that DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert, and all the rest of those guys have high school tapes of them doing the same things hidden away in their sock drawers. Or unless you want to argue that a guy can forget how to do all those things and can lose all his talent in a single year of college.
And its not a question of whether Drummond is actually going to be throwing behind his back passes in the pros. Its a question that no guy his size without a TON of talent can do that at ANY age.
Sigh. Just not understanding the point. And again, if you think about what you are saying you are saying DeAndre Jordan could do it too if he wanted to against the right competiion. Which is ridiculous. Most of that class of guys have a hard time controlling the dribble for more than 3 bounces.
So let's try this another way. We have an NBA skills competition at the All Star break. Dribble around, throw the ball through little hoops, whatever. PG paradise. If the Drummond is untalented/Drummond is DeAndre Jordan comparisons have any merit, then you put him out there against Jordan and they should score similarly. If after watching that tape of what he can do when unleashed you actually think that...well you can't. Nobody can. And the reason for that is simple: DRUMMOND HAS TALENT. That's what that tape shows. He's got talent. A lot of it. If he didn't he couldn't have done those things. The guys people are trying to compare him wiht liek Jordan or Joel Anthony or whoever couldn't do them if you locked them in a gym by themselves.
The argument has NEVER been that Drummond did them to high school kids therefore he'll do them to NBA pros the same way. The argument has ALWAYS been well, he did them. The guys he is compared to cannot do them. Therefeore he is being compared to the wrong guys.
I'm with Brick. I'm willing to throw out most of his year at UCONN for the most part. Worrisome? Sure. But there is huge potential to unleash him in the NBA. Remember it was 50/50 if he was even eligible to play NCAA this year. He's that young!Imagine if he came fresh into college next year. His numbers would be significantly better imo. He's worth the cost of a #5.
He's not a post player. He actually didn't have much (if any) most game at all. UCONN is terrible at developing bigs though. You do what your told no matter if it's your strength or weakness. Going to UCONN didn't really benefit Drummond in terms of growing as a player. I look at him as more of an open court player too.
Im not attempting to discredit his talent at all. He without a doubt has one of the biggest ceilings of any player since the LeBron draft. His college stats (while concerning) aren't even the major red flag to me. It's his motor/work ethic. If he was working his *** off for his 10/7/2 stat line and you saw the desire to get better, then you have something you can develop and you could stand taking the risk on a super raw, talented, athletic big man. And THAT's when you take a risk on a super athlete like Drummond. What concerns me the most about him is the 10 minute film I could make of him not boxing his man out, not rotating on defense, not going after boards, not working to establish position offensively, etc. He tried to coast by on his athleticism and it showed in his performance this season. I'm also not sold on putting blame on Calhoun either. Effort is effort and it's not the coaches fault that he wasn't giving 100% hustle all the time
The point I was making about a highschool highlight reel is that its not hard to make a supreme athlete like Drummond stand out against far inferior competition. I could do the same thing with hundreds of high school players and make them look like god's gift to basketball.
The point I was making about a highschool highlight reel is that its not hard to make a supreme athlete like Drummond stand out against far inferior competition. I could do the same thing with hundreds of high school players and make them look like god's gift to basketball.
Not guys his size. Like almost ever.
I don't know what others are watching in a highlight reel, but I'm watching skills. I don't care who they are playing. I don't care if they won or lost. Don't care if the shot went in. All I watch are for skills. Because skills translate. I'd include dunking as a "skill" for those purposes, although most highlight reels are far far too dunk heavy while trying to impress -- I just care how easy they get up. But the point being, a guy can either do certain things or not. And that doesn't depend on his opponents. Sure, maybe the post move goes in or maybe it doesn't, but if he used a drop step and up and under I don't care if he made it or not or who he was playing, fact is he executed something very few can.
Well ditto for Drummond. My point with that tape is not that he dominated in the tape. Its HOW he dominated. The things he did. And the limited talented bigs people have been comparing him against just would have had no chance to do things like that, to be that fluid and nifty with the ball. That takes major talent that very few bigs have. What came after at UConn is a whole other issue in some ways, but given how RADICALLY different his style of play was at UConn compared to high school, something does not add up.
This is all important because of this: if you take Drummond, and are wrong about him, you waste 1 draft pick. If you don't take Drummond though, and are wrong about him, you could literally have just cost yourself championships. A 6'11" 278lb kid with a 38" vert who can the things you see in that video is that rare. Next to Cousins it could be almsot revolutionary. You have to be absolutely sure the kid in the video is not the real Andre Drumond.
I don't know what others are watching in a highlight reel, but I'm watching skills. I don't care who they are playing. I don't care if they won or lost. Don't care if the shot went in. All I watch are for skills. Because skills translate. I'd include dunking as a "skill" for those purposes, although most highlight reels are far far too dunk heavy while trying to impress -- I just care how easy they get up. But the point being, a guy can either do certain things or not. And that doesn't depend on his opponents. Sure, maybe the post move goes in or maybe it doesn't, but if he used a drop step and up and under I don't care if he made it or not or who he was playing, fact is he executed something very few can.
Well ditto for Drummond. My point with that tape is not that he dominated in the tape. Its HOW he dominated. The things he did. And the limited talented bigs people have been comparing him against just would have had no chance to do things like that, to be that fluid and nifty with the ball. That takes major talent that very few bigs have. What came after at UConn is a whole other issue in some ways, but given how RADICALLY different his style of play was at UConn compared to high school, something does not add up.
This is all important because of this: if you take Drummond, and are wrong about him, you waste 1 draft pick. If you don't take Drummond though, and are wrong about him, you could literally have just cost yourself championships. A 6'11" 278lb kid with a 38" vert who can the things you see in that video is that rare. Next to Cousins it could be almsot revolutionary. You have to be absolutely sure the kid in the video is not the real Andre Drumond.
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Cousins-Drummond front line would have scary potential. That pairing could terrorize opponents for a decade to come.
If Drummond's defensive potential alone gets fulfilled, it would be an insane combination. I am willing to take a chance that we do our due diligence on this one. Petrie certainly did his homework with Cousins and we are reaping the benefits at the moment. Hopefully, we do the same thing on Drummond and if we do pick him, I think we are sent long term in terms of PF and C position.
Tyreke adds a respectable jump shot and we trade Thornton for a good SF and the foundation of the team is set for the next decade. Provided of course that our owners are willing and able to spend the money. Hopefully by this time next year we will have new ownership and a powerhouse team in the making.
If Drummond's defensive potential alone gets fulfilled, it would be an insane combination. I am willing to take a chance that we do our due diligence on this one. Petrie certainly did his homework with Cousins and we are reaping the benefits at the moment. Hopefully, we do the same thing on Drummond and if we do pick him, I think we are sent long term in terms of PF and C position.
Tyreke adds a respectable jump shot and we trade Thornton for a good SF and the foundation of the team is set for the next decade. Provided of course that our owners are willing and able to spend the money. Hopefully by this time next year we will have new ownership and a powerhouse team in the making.
What i'm worried about is a clash of egos. Drummond clearly says he sees himself as a Kevin Durant kind of player. Now pray tell, how in the world we're going to fit a 6'10 Kevin Durant wannabe big on a team with DMC, who already sees himself as a PG? There is only so much room and freedom that a coach can extend to his players. You remember how DMC was happy because Smart let him play outside more, as opposed to Westphal who just wanted to stick him in the post? What if the same thing happens with Drummond?
This is unlike Divac and Webber, who were bigs with elite passing skills. They saw themselves as bigs, and used their passing abilities and skills to become unique, talented bigs. They didn't call themselves Kevin Durant like players and run around pulling up for jumpshots.
I just don't see it happening. And when I say egos I don't mean a "I want my stats, I could care less about the team" mindset. What I mean is a reluctance to play in a position you don't want to play. You just can't have both of your big men not playing like big men, no matter how skilled they are at doing whatever else it is. If that's the case then you go ok, Drummond becomes our SF and we still have to go find a PF/shotblocker.
If I hadn't read that bit about how he sees himself I wouldn't be worried. Like you said it would be great to have another big with such good skill.
This is unlike Divac and Webber, who were bigs with elite passing skills. They saw themselves as bigs, and used their passing abilities and skills to become unique, talented bigs. They didn't call themselves Kevin Durant like players and run around pulling up for jumpshots.
I just don't see it happening. And when I say egos I don't mean a "I want my stats, I could care less about the team" mindset. What I mean is a reluctance to play in a position you don't want to play. You just can't have both of your big men not playing like big men, no matter how skilled they are at doing whatever else it is. If that's the case then you go ok, Drummond becomes our SF and we still have to go find a PF/shotblocker.
If I hadn't read that bit about how he sees himself I wouldn't be worried. Like you said it would be great to have another big with such good skill.
A lot of bigs can show off flashy passing and dribbling if you put them against crap competition and tell them to have no regard for screwing up because they'll just edit out your mistakes, and the reason you don't know they can do it is because they're not stupid enough to try it in a game. Besides, raw passing skills are practically worthless with bigs anyway, what's vastly more important is seeing the court, recognizing double teams, IQ, and decision making. I'll take a big who simply has a fundamentally sound passing game over some show boat who can make a flashy pass every once in a while, but gets a ton of turnovers. I've seen Andrew Bynum make some difficult passes to cutters before, but how does that translate to him passing out of double teams? It doesn't, he's horrible. If you put NBA bigs up against crappy competition, give them little to no regard of making mistakes, and they can pull off the simple tricks (behind the back passes, crossover/behind the back dribbles that he almost lost control of) that he does. I'm not saying this is evidence against Drummond having better than average guard skills, but it's certainly not evidence in favor of it.