Anyone upset they could have had Knight?

[hrdboild]

See Glenn and Sprtsjunkie posts below...

Since I'm now living in a parallel universe where I can read and react to things before they happen, I thought I should link back to my response to this post on the previous page: here

Then again, given that I'm obviously inside of some mad scientific Schroedinger's Cat experiment, there's a good chance this post will get translated to some as yet unknown point in the future. Only one way to find out...

EDIT: I guess I should have expected that.

Dr. Ian Malcolm: There's, another example. See, here I'm now sitting by myself, uh, er, talking to myself. That's, that's chaos.

 

[kennadog]

Post draft notes says it was Fredette or Walker. They were not especially impressed with Knight or Leonard. Certainly the talk out of the Kings office after Fredette's workout had me thinking Jimmer sounded like their guy. I would have liked Walker as a pick, too.

So no, there was never any indication at all out of Sacramento that seemed like they really wanted Knight. Just a lot of people here4 who wanted him. We can argue whether the Kings "should" have wanted Knight more than Jimmer or Walker, but I think the Kings got who they wanted going in. So how happy would certain people be, if we had stayed at #7 and picked Jimmer or Walker over Knight anyway? I suspect that's what would have happened.

 

[Telemachus]

It is when when it's for 3+ more years and for a 32 year old player who is not that good. Huge is a relative term in this case.

You keep referring to Salmons as being 32 yrs old when he is only 31. He won't be 32 until December (6 months from now).

 

[Sptsjunkie]

That could very well may be the case. In which case, I have serious doubts about that strategy as well, because they were picking team needs over talent potential. That's not a strat I agree with when discussing top 10 picks. I think in the top 10, you go for the best player available, and if they fit a team need, all the better. I think they felt Jimmer could fit better with Evans in the Bibby role: a scoring PG who can spread the floor and take pressure off of the primary facilitators, those being Cousins and Evans.

Not really. They may not be big fans of Knight period. I think Knight will be a solid pro, but he's not overly athletic or quick. His steal numbers and FG% were bad. He's far from a pure PG. I've read, he struggles driving left. He had some great games, but some real stinkers too. I think he'll be a nice player in time. But it's a serious question mark if he'll be good enough to make us regret drafting Jimmer.

Jimmer fits our needs and should be able to contribute this year. Unless Knight becomes significantly better than Jimmer, it's a good move by Petrie.

 

[Telemachus]

I keep seeing this but have yet to actually see any "reports" that we wanted Knight after Jimmer's visit. Please enlighten us where those in the know said we liked Knight better. I'll be waiting.

I know that I never heard any reports of Knight being at the top of the Kings draft board. I heard Jerry Reynalds down play Knight and play up Jimmer days before the draft. All indications were that the Kings wanted either Jimmer or Leonard.

 

[hrdboild]

It's become accepted as law that Geoff Petrie has a good track record with the draft, but I'd say he's no better than average. Here's every first round pick he's made since taking over in 1994:

Hits:

(2010) DeMarcus Cousins
(2009) Tyreke Evans
(2004) Kevin Martin
(2001) Gerald Wallace
(1996) Peja Stojakovic

Cousins was a no-brainer pick. Everyone would have made that pick (Kahn excepted). Evans is probably the best of the bunch. He was projected in that range, but Geoff did surprise some people. I don't give him too much credit for "discovering" Cousins, but regardless this looks like two big hits so far.

The next three are where Geoff has built his reputation. Kevin Martin was a one-dimensional scorer from a small school who surprised a lot of people by excelling as a one-dimensional scorer in the NBA. He was eventually traded for a guy, Carl Landry, who was drafted in the second round and was about equal as a contributer. A modest success. Gerald Wallace turned into an All Star but Geoff showed zero faith in him and let him go for nothing so I wouldn't give him much credit for evaluating talent there. If Geoff believed he was an All Star he would have done more to retain him so it might as well have been a miss.

Peja was a key player for us for all 7 of his seasons in Sacramento, but never an All Star. Geoff passed on two guys in Steve Nash and Jermaine O'Neal who had better careers. He was eventually traded for a guy, Artest, who's team had suspended him indefinitely until someone else would take him off their hands. That doesn't make him any less of a hit though, which makes 3. I think 3 big hits in 15 tries is probably about par for the course in the draft.

Misses:

(2007) Spencer Hawes
(2006) Quincy Douby
(1997) Tariq Abdul Wahad

Not much to say here other than Petrie is better than average at avoiding total busts -- probably because he refuses to take any chances with high reward players. More on that below...

Neither:

(2009) Omri Casspi
(2008) Jason Thompson
(2005) Francisco Garcia
(2000) Hedo Turkoglu
(1998) Jason Williams
(1995) Corliss Williamson
(1994) Brian Grant

This is the bread and butter of what Geoff typically brings to the draft. Casspi got off to a good start but his limitations have slowly become more apparent. He passed on Taj Gibson, DeJuan Blair, Roddy Beaubois, Marcus Thornton, Sam Young, and Jonas Jerebko who are about the same level of talent or better. Average pick.

Jason Thompson was more NBA ready than most and was gifted a starting spot before he was probably ready for it. He's basically the same player now as he was when he was drafted. Anthony Randolph, JaVale McGee, Roy Hibbert, Courtney Lee, Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum, and George Hill were all options. Average pick.

Francisco Garcia was an alright pick, despite playing the same position as the guy drafted the previous year. Can't blame Petrie for the injuries. But there's pretty good company picked below him -- David Lee, Brandon Bass, CJ Miles, Ersan Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche, Ryan Gomes, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat. All guys Petrie passed on. Average pick.

Hedo has had an up and down career. He's always been talented but he's also acquired a reputation for laziness. Petrie didn't pass on anyone comparatively better to get him though, just about a dozen other NBA journeymen. Average pick.

Jason Williams should really almost be a miss considering he passed on two Hall of Fame players to pick him. He also traded him after only three seasons for Mike Bibby who had a surprisingly short peak as a defenseless shooter and has been dragging down payrolls ever since. Williams didn't fare much better in his post-Kings career. Average pick.

Corliss Williamson and Brian Grant were both NBA average career journeymen. Petrie was able to trade Corliss for Doug Christie though who was a key contributer for years.

Also let's not forget traded picks. He traded the 2003 pick (ended up being Kendrick Perkins) to get Nick Anderson. And a 2002 pick (Dan Dickau) for another 2003 pick which was also traded (ended up being Carlos Delfino) for Mateen Cleeves. Only the Perkins pick stands out as a missed opportunity.

(Note -- The 1999 pick had been traded for Olden Polynice before Petrie was GM)

So I count three big hits, three big misses, and the rest somewhere in the middle. He's not the worst GM in the league at finding talent in the draft, but his success there has been overstated I think. His two biggest hits were both top 5 picks and his best "diamond in the rough" pick was Gerald Wallace who he botched later anyway. If anything I would say that Geoff Petrie has a talent for drafting average NBA players.

 

[RookieOfTheDay]

It's become accepted as law that Geoff Petrie has a good track record with the draft, but I'd say he's no better than average. Here's every first round pick he's made since taking over in 1994:

Hits:

(2010) DeMarcus Cousins
(2009) Tyreke Evans
(2004) Kevin Martin
(2001) Gerald Wallace
(1996) Peja Stojakovic

Cousins was a no-brainer pick. Everyone would have made that pick (Kahn excepted). Evans is probably the best of the bunch. He was projected in that range, but Geoff did surprise some people. I don't give him too much credit for "discovering" Cousins, but regardless this looks like two big hits so far.

The next three are where Geoff has built his reputation. Kevin Martin was a one-dimensional scorer from a small school who surprised a lot of people by excelling as a one-dimensional scorer in the NBA. He was eventually traded for a guy, Carl Landry, who was drafted in the second round and was about equal as a contributer. A modest success. Gerald Wallace turned into an All Star but Geoff showed zero faith in him and let him go for nothing so I wouldn't give him much credit for evaluating talent there. If Geoff believed he was an All Star he would have done more to retain him so it might as well have been a miss.

Peja was a key player for us for all 7 of his seasons in Sacramento, but never an All Star. Geoff passed on two guys in Steve Nash and Jermaine O'Neal who had better careers. He was eventually traded for a guy, Artest, who's team had suspended him indefinitely until someone else would take him off their hands. That doesn't make him any less of a hit though, which makes 3. I think 3 big hits in 15 tries is probably about par for the course in the draft.

Misses:

(2007) Spencer Hawes
(2006) Quincy Douby
(1997) Tariq Abdul Wahad

Not much to say here other than Petrie is better than average at avoiding total busts -- probably because he refuses to take any chances with high reward players. More on that below...

Neither:

(2009) Omri Casspi
(2008) Jason Thompson
(2005) Francisco Garcia
(2000) Hedo Turkoglu
(1998) Jason Williams
(1995) Corliss Williamson
(1994) Brian Grant

This is the bread and butter of what Geoff typically brings to the draft. Casspi got off to a good start but his limitations have slowly become more apparent. He passed on Taj Gibson, DeJuan Blair, Roddy Beaubois, Marcus Thornton, Sam Young, and Jonas Jerebko who are about the same level of talent or better. Average pick.

Jason Thompson was more NBA ready than most and was gifted a starting spot before he was probably ready for it. He's basically the same player now as he was when he was drafted. Anthony Randolph, JaVale McGee, Roy Hibbert, Courtney Lee, Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum, and George Hill were all options. Average pick.

Francisco Garcia was an alright pick, despite playing the same position as the guy drafted the previous year. Can't blame Petrie for the injuries. But there's pretty good company picked below him -- David Lee, Brandon Bass, CJ Miles, Ersan Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche, Ryan Gomes, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat. All guys Petrie passed on. Average pick.

Hedo has had an up and down career. He's always been talented but he's also acquired a reputation for laziness. Petrie didn't pass on anyone comparatively better to get him though, just about a dozen other NBA journeymen. Average pick.

Jason Williams should really almost be a miss considering he passed on two Hall of Fame players to pick him. He also traded him after only three seasons for Mike Bibby who had a surprisingly short peak as a defenseless shooter and has been dragging down payrolls ever since. Williams didn't fare much better in his post-Kings career. Average pick.

Corliss Williamson and Brian Grant were both NBA average career journeymen. Petrie was able to trade Corliss for Doug Christie though who was a key contributer for years.

Also let's not forget traded picks. He traded the 2003 pick (ended up being Kendrick Perkins) to get Nick Anderson. And a 2002 pick (Dan Dickau) for another 2003 pick which was also traded (ended up being Carlos Delfino) for Mateen Cleeves. Only the Perkins pick stands out as a missed opportunity.

(Note -- The 1999 pick had been traded for Olden Polynice before Petrie was GM)

So I count three big hits, three big misses, and the rest somewhere in the middle. He's not the worst GM in the league at finding talent in the draft, but his success there has been overstated I think. His two biggest hits were both top 5 picks and his best "diamond in the rough" pick was Gerald Wallace who he botched later anyway. If anything I would say that Geoff Petrie has a talent for drafting average NBA players.

I don't think you're analysis is entirely fair. Williams and Turkoglu were definitely hits by most standards. Not grand slams but they both turned out to be solid players who had good NBA careers. Cousins wasn't exactly a no-brainer, either. Three teams passed on him in favor of lesser talent because of the "red flags" with Cousins. Petrie definitely deserves some credit there for having the courage to gamble where other GMs played it safe.

 

[hrdboild]

I don't think you're analysis is entirely fair. Williams and Turkoglu were definitely hits by most standards. Not grand slams but they both turned out to be solid players who had good NBA careers. Cousins wasn't exactly a no-brainer, either. Three teams passed on him in favor of lesser talent because of the "red flags" with Cousins. Petrie definitely deserves some credit there for having the courage to gamble where other GMs played it safe.

Williams really only had three seasons in his career where he was a better than average NBA starter, his second in Sacramento and his first two in Memphis. Highlight reels aside, he was an average NBA player for most of his injury shortened career. Hedo has only had two seasons, both in Orlando, where he was an above average NBA starter. Those are modest successes I think. They fall right in line with the types of players Petrie usually picks -- average NBA players. And I did give Petrie credit for drafting Cousins -- that was one of the three hits I counted. But Evan Turner and Derrick Favors aren't lesser talents, it's too early to say which of them will have a better career. Also Kahn is an idiot.

 

[Glenn]

Any argument about Petrie's skills will get nowhere. I'd like to see a similar breakdown of Pat Riley but what's the point except to prove who is smarter than who? I don't mean which GM but which poster is smartest. Petrie is ours and unless there is a GM out there that we should hire instead of him, this is just an intellectual exercise. Have at it if you will but in the end, it is pointless. If I use Spencer Hawes as an example, I would ask who should he have picked instead. I didn't hear any hue and cry about how inept Petrie was at the time. Spencer was just all there was.

Have at it and when ya'll come to some conclusion, wake me up.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

So I count three big hits, three big misses, and the rest somewhere in the middle. He's not the worst GM in the league at finding talent in the draft, but his success there has been overstated I think. His two biggest hits were both top 5 picks and his best "diamond in the rough" pick was Gerald Wallace who he botched later anyway. If anything I would say that Geoff Petrie has a talent for drafting average NBA players.

So much wrong with this, I don't know where to start. However, I'll have some fun with it instead. Let's look at another GM with a good reputation for drafting:

RC Buford (2002-Present) / Poppovich (1994-2002)

Hits:
Tim Duncan
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Luis Scola
Leondro Barbosa

Duncan was the consensus number one pick.

Scola and Barbosa were given away from nothing because of a lack of foresight. So they don't really count. That means there's three hits in 17 years and one was an obvious number 1 pick anyone but Kahn would have taken.

Busts
Bill Curley
Corey Alexander
Felipe Lopez
Ian Mahinmi
Tiago Splitter
James Anderson

Neither
John Salmons
Beno Udrih
George Hill

It should also be noted that this tandem passed on Carlos Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Michael Redd, and Rashard Lewis.

I count 3 big hits, 6 misses and the rest somewhere in the middle. Clearly the Spurs are stuck with GMs who are mediocre drafters.

 

[mac]

Another thing we should take note of when looking at the "neither" category is whether we drafted for positional needs. Sometimes that means taking a player who is not as good as another player available, and I think could have been the case for a lot of our late first round picks. I may very well be wrong, but to me it would make sense to take someone who either fills a positional need or is NBA-ready when your team is already a pretty good playoff team. Just saying that it could have caused us to miss some bigger "hits", but I don't have the evidence to back it up nor am I prepared to go find it

 

[Capt. Factorial]

But obviously because some spin came out later, they weren't interested.

If you listened to Jerry Reynolds' interview on Cowbell Kingdom a few days before the draft, you'd have heard that same spin. The Kings front office was saying - before the draft and before the trade - that they weren't terribly high on Knight. I kind of didn't believe it either, just like I kind of didn't believe that the Kings front office wasn't terribly high on Rubio, but you know what? They were telling the truth both times, turns out.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

It's become accepted as law that Geoff Petrie has a good track record with the draft, but I'd say he's no better than average. Here's every first round pick he's made since taking over in 1994:

(snip)

So I count three big hits, three big misses, and the rest somewhere in the middle. He's not the worst GM in the league at finding talent in the draft, but his success there has been overstated I think. His two biggest hits were both top 5 picks and his best "diamond in the rough" pick was Gerald Wallace who he botched later anyway. If anything I would say that Geoff Petrie has a talent for drafting average NBA players.

I did a pretty detailed analysis of this two years ago (which means before Evans, Cousins, and Omri). Using a detailed and objective analysis of how much value a team got at its actual draft spot given the strength of its draft, I estimated that Petrie was the fifth-best out of the 42 GMs who had made at least 5 draft picks between 1994 and 2008. If you want the link, I'll give it to you.

I will note that Hedo Turkoglu was very, very far from a "neither". He was (at least at the time) the best player over his career from that entire draft, taken at #16. That's not a neither, that's a hit.

 

[John Galt]

It's become accepted as law that Geoff Petrie has a good track record with the draft, but I'd say he's no better than average. Here's every first round pick he's made since taking over in 1994:

Hits:

(2010) DeMarcus Cousins
(2009) Tyreke Evans
(2004) Kevin Martin
(2001) Gerald Wallace
(1996) Peja Stojakovic

Cousins was a no-brainer pick. Everyone would have made that pick (Kahn excepted). Evans is probably the best of the bunch. He was projected in that range, but Geoff did surprise some people. I don't give him too much credit for "discovering" Cousins, but regardless this looks like two big hits so far.

The next three are where Geoff has built his reputation. Kevin Martin was a one-dimensional scorer from a small school who surprised a lot of people by excelling as a one-dimensional scorer in the NBA. He was eventually traded for a guy, Carl Landry, who was drafted in the second round and was about equal as a contributer. A modest success. Gerald Wallace turned into an All Star but Geoff showed zero faith in him and let him go for nothing so I wouldn't give him much credit for evaluating talent there. If Geoff believed he was an All Star he would have done more to retain him so it might as well have been a miss.

Peja was a key player for us for all 7 of his seasons in Sacramento, but never an All Star. Geoff passed on two guys in Steve Nash and Jermaine O'Neal who had better careers. He was eventually traded for a guy, Artest, who's team had suspended him indefinitely until someone else would take him off their hands. That doesn't make him any less of a hit though, which makes 3. I think 3 big hits in 15 tries is probably about par for the course in the draft.

Misses:

(2007) Spencer Hawes
(2006) Quincy Douby
(1997) Tariq Abdul Wahad

Not much to say here other than Petrie is better than average at avoiding total busts -- probably because he refuses to take any chances with high reward players. More on that below...

Neither:

(2009) Omri Casspi
(2008) Jason Thompson
(2005) Francisco Garcia
(2000) Hedo Turkoglu
(1998) Jason Williams
(1995) Corliss Williamson
(1994) Brian Grant

This is the bread and butter of what Geoff typically brings to the draft. Casspi got off to a good start but his limitations have slowly become more apparent. He passed on Taj Gibson, DeJuan Blair, Roddy Beaubois, Marcus Thornton, Sam Young, and Jonas Jerebko who are about the same level of talent or better. Average pick.

Jason Thompson was more NBA ready than most and was gifted a starting spot before he was probably ready for it. He's basically the same player now as he was when he was drafted. Anthony Randolph, JaVale McGee, Roy Hibbert, Courtney Lee, Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum, and George Hill were all options. Average pick.

Francisco Garcia was an alright pick, despite playing the same position as the guy drafted the previous year. Can't blame Petrie for the injuries. But there's pretty good company picked below him -- David Lee, Brandon Bass, CJ Miles, Ersan Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche, Ryan Gomes, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat. All guys Petrie passed on. Average pick.

Hedo has had an up and down career. He's always been talented but he's also acquired a reputation for laziness. Petrie didn't pass on anyone comparatively better to get him though, just about a dozen other NBA journeymen. Average pick.

Jason Williams should really almost be a miss considering he passed on two Hall of Fame players to pick him. He also traded him after only three seasons for Mike Bibby who had a surprisingly short peak as a defenseless shooter and has been dragging down payrolls ever since. Williams didn't fare much better in his post-Kings career. Average pick.

Corliss Williamson and Brian Grant were both NBA average career journeymen. Petrie was able to trade Corliss for Doug Christie though who was a key contributer for years.

Also let's not forget traded picks. He traded the 2003 pick (ended up being Kendrick Perkins) to get Nick Anderson. And a 2002 pick (Dan Dickau) for another 2003 pick which was also traded (ended up being Carlos Delfino) for Mateen Cleeves. Only the Perkins pick stands out as a missed opportunity.

(Note -- The 1999 pick had been traded for Olden Polynice before Petrie was GM)

So I count three big hits, three big misses, and the rest somewhere in the middle. He's not the worst GM in the league at finding talent in the draft, but his success there has been overstated I think. His two biggest hits were both top 5 picks and his best "diamond in the rough" pick was Gerald Wallace who he botched later anyway. If anything I would say that Geoff Petrie has a talent for drafting average NBA players.

I think you make your point very well (but then again I'm not a "in Petrie we trust" chanter anyway). As a matter of fact I've often made the point about passing on stars to take Jason Williams.

But I think if we're honest we would recognize that it HAD to be Jason Williams and it was in the big picture the more brilliant pick from an excitment and marketing standpoint. Watching hilite reels of Jason Williams still brings tears to my eyes sometimes... truly imo the greatest of the "good old days" was when it all started... with JW, Vlade and CWebb.

But I agree with you that Geoff Petrie is a competent GM, but not a superior drafter necessarily. What I give him most credit for are the vision to snag Vlade and seemingly overpay him, and the tenacity to stick with Webber despite Webber's own vow to either never show up, or leave as soon as he could. For THAT I give him credit.

 

[hrdboild]

I tried to post this last night but my posts appeared all out of order for some reason, so let me try it again and see if I can get it where people might actually read it:

If I use Spencer Hawes as an example, I would ask who should he have picked instead. I didn't hear any hue and cry about how inept Petrie was at the time. Spencer was just all there was.

Kings Draft Spencer Hawes thread

There's a lot of negativity in that thread, not just my own. As for who we should have picked instead, see picks 11-20 of that draft. Thankfully we managed to pawn him off on Philadelphia before his rookie contract was up.

And Sptsjunkie, it might not have been what you intended, but I think you made a pretty good case that the Spurs have not done a good job with the draft over the past 17 years either. Two hits and a Hall of Fame first overall pick is hardly stellar. They have a tendency to draft off-the-radar international players which leads to a lot of busts but also they're two highest profile successes. In defense of Buford/Popovich I would say that they're almost always picking at the bottom of the first round where the success rate is a lot lower. But clearly their franchises success over that time period has not been built through the draft. That or having one Hall of Fame first overall pick makes up for a lot of other mistakes (see also: Lebron James, Cleveland)

But that was just you having fun, and so much is wrong with my argument so... enlighten me. Or not. I guess if you have better things to do I can't blame you.

I did a pretty detailed analysis of this two years ago (which means before Evans, Cousins, and Omri). Using a detailed and objective analysis of how much value a team got at its actual draft spot given the strength of its draft, I estimated that Petrie was the fifth-best out of the 42 GMs who had made at least 5 draft picks between 1994 and 2008. If you want the link, I'll give it to you.

I will note that Hedo Turkoglu was very, very far from a "neither". He was (at least at the time) the best player over his career from that entire draft, taken at #16. That's not a neither, that's a hit.

I would like to read that post. I did a search but all I found was your overview of Geoff's trades from 2005 to 2009 (which I still think reads like a play-by-play of a team in a slow death spiral but that has nothing to do with the current question of whether Geoff is a good drafter or not).

Again with Hedo, the 2000 draft is generally considered to be one of the worst in NBA history. Even if Hedo was the best player from the draft (I'm guessing you used Win Shares to say that he is) that doesn't make him any more than an average NBA starter. He was primarily a bench player for his first 5 seasons, peaked as a starter at age 28/29, and seems to now be in decline. But win shares aside, I think Michael Redd clearly had the best career of anyone from that draft and everyone passed on him, Petrie included.

Given his track record, it doesn't surprise me that Geoff was able to find the average NBA player that year where most other GMs failed. That was my main point after all, that Geoff's talent is for drafting average players not stars. His draft this year seems to fit the pattern-- which was why I made the argument in the first place. Bismack Biyombo and Brandon Knight, the players taken 7th and 8th, could both be really good but they have a lot of work to do to get there. Jimmer is what he is, a solid NCAA average PG with a deadly jumpshot that makes him an elite scorer. I don't hate the pick. I think he was the 10th best player in the draft and we picked him 10th. But I'm not going to sing Petrie's praises for taking one of the safest guys in the draft either. All signs point to Jimmer being another average NBA player.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Kings Draft Spencer Hawes thread

There's a lot of negativity in that thread, not just my own. As for who we should have picked instead, see picks 11-20 of that draft. Thankfully we managed to pawn him off on Philadelphia before his rookie contract was up.

And Sptsjunkie, it might not have been what you intended, but I think you made a pretty good case that the Spurs have not done a good job with the draft over the past 17 years either. Two hits and a Hall of Fame first overall pick is hardly stellar. They have a tendency to draft off-the-radar international players which leads to a lot of busts but also they're two highest profile successes. In defense of Buford/Popovich I would say that they're almost always picking at the bottom of the first round where the success rate is a lot lower. But clearly their franchises success over that time period has not been built through the draft. That or having one Hall of Fame first overall pick makes up for a lot of other mistakes (see also: Lebron James, Cleveland)

But that was just you having fun, and so much is wrong with my argument so... enlighten me. Or not. I guess if you have better things to do I can't blame you.



I would like to read that post. I did a search but all I found was your overview of Geoff's trades from 2005 to 2009 (which I still think reads like a play-by-play of a team in a slow death spiral but that has nothing to do with the current question of whether Geoff is a good drafter or not).

Again with Hedo, the 2000 draft is generally considered to be one of the worst in NBA history. Even if Hedo was the best player from the draft (I'm guessing you used Win Shares to say that he is) that doesn't make him any more than an average NBA starter. He was primarily a bench player for his first 5 seasons, peaked as a starter at age 28/29, and seems to now be in decline. But win shares aside, I think Michael Redd clearly had the best career of anyone from that draft and everyone passed on him, Petrie included.

Given his track record, it doesn't surprise me that Geoff was able to find the average NBA player that year where most other GMs failed. That was my main point after all, that Geoff's talent is for drafting average players not stars. His draft this year seems to fit the pattern-- which was why I made the argument in the first place. Bismack Biyombo and Brandon Knight, the players taken 7th and 8th, could both be really good but they have a lot of work to do to get there. Jimmer is what he is, a solid NCAA average PG with a deadly jumpshot that makes him an elite scorer. I don't hate the pick. I think he was the 10th best player in the draft and we picked him 10th. But I'm not going to sing Petrie's praises for taking one of the safest guys in the draft either. All signs point to Jimmer being another average NBA player.

I think the greater point here is that you could make a similar argument about any GM. I started with the Spurs management, because they are highly praised and have won several rings. If you look at the Thunder and Sam Presti, who is also considered top notch, you'll easily be able to criticize picks like Jeff Green, BJ Mullens, and Cole Aldrich.

There's not a single GM in the league who drafts mostly star players or who hasn't passed on very good players like Ellis, Redd and Boozer. There are very few stars in a given draft and most are taken in the early lottery. Once you start drafting in the teens and 20s, getting a player who can contribute to a NBA team is a victory.

This is what your analysis is missing is any context. Even if people accepted the way you categorized every player, which they don't, you would need to show how it compared to the other GMs in the league to be able to make a statement about how well Petrie does versus his peers. Otherwise it's the equivalent of saying a player is a bad three point shooter, because he only hits 45% of his threes, which is a bad percentage since it's not even 50%. Sure, 45% may seem like a low %, but considering it would lead the NBA most seasons, it actually shows fantastic three point shooting ability.

 

[theclash4u5]

So much wrong with this, I don't know where to start. However, I'll have some fun with it instead. Let's look at another GM with a good reputation for drafting:

RC Buford (2002-Present) / Poppovich (1994-2002)

Hits:
Tim Duncan
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Luis Scola
Leondro Barbosa

Duncan was the consensus number one pick.

Scola and Barbosa were given away from nothing because of a lack of foresight. So they don't really count. That means there's three hits in 17 years and one was an obvious number 1 pick anyone but Kahn would have taken.

Busts
Bill Curley
Corey Alexander
Felipe Lopez
Ian Mahinmi
Tiago Splitter
James Anderson

Neither
John Salmons
Beno Udrih
George Hill

It should also be noted that this tandem passed on Carlos Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Michael Redd, and Rashard Lewis.

I count 3 big hits, 6 misses and the rest somewhere in the middle. Clearly the Spurs are stuck with GMs who are mediocre drafters.

Splitter is a bust already? And where's Blair?

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Splitter is a bust already? And where's Blair?

I was trying to use the OP's high standards. Splitter is 26 and averaged 5pts, 3tbs on a team that desperately needed a center. Blair would have gone under neither, but the OP didn't harp on second round picks at all. So the only one I included is Ginobili who was a clear home run.

 

[swisshh]

In response to people with poor memory:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20.../03/knight.draft/index.html?eref=twitter_feed

Knight ran through drills but did not share the Kings' practice facility floor with any of his draft classmates, a decision that a source close to the team said came from his camp. Not that it mattered much when it came to the Kings, who pick seventh and would be elated if he fell that far.

As Knight intimated, it appears Sacramento is the projected floor when it comes to his stock. He is believed to be drawing significant interest as high as the No. 3 spot (Utah) and will work out next with Toronto (No. 5 pick). . . .Fredette, the phenom who started his own YouTube channel this week, appears to be in play for the Kings at No. 7 as well. Sacramento badly needs a consistent shooter, and all the better if he has an impact at the turnstiles, too.

I am pretty sure this article has been posted on these forums. The talk was that Petrie/coaches liked Knight, but were prepared for him to go too early. The Maloofs were really into Jimmer. It is only retro-actively that the word is that everyone loved Jimmer.

As for myself, I'm okay with Jimmer. I'm just not okay with the continued schlock from the FO. I am not okay with the trade and I despise being lied to again by the Maloofs' PR hunchlings. It's embarrassing as a fan to root for a franchise that is doing these things.

 

[hrdboild]

I was trying to use the OP's high standards. Splitter is 26 and averaged 5pts, 3tbs on a team that desperately needed a center. Blair would have gone under neither, but the OP didn't harp on second round picks at all. So the only one I included is Ginobili who was a clear home run.

I would have put Tiago Splitter in the neither category if you'd asked my opinion. Same with Luis Scola for that matter.

Throw in second round picks if you want but it doesn't help Petrie's case. I would have mentioned it if he had even one solid pick there. Whiteside and Honeycutt are probably the best of the bunch and that's only because they're not complete washouts yet. Not that anyone consistently hits on second round picks anyway.

I think the greater point here is that you could make a similar argument about any GM. I started with the Spurs management, because they are highly praised and have won several rings. If you look at the Thunder and Sam Presti, who is also considered top notch, you'll easily be able to criticize picks like Jeff Green, BJ Mullens, and Cole Aldrich.

There's not a single GM in the league who drafts mostly star players or who hasn't passed on very good players like Ellis, Redd and Boozer. There are very few stars in a given draft and most are taken in the early lottery. Once you start drafting in the teens and 20s, getting a player who can contribute to a NBA team is a victory.

This is what your analysis is missing is any context. Even if people accepted the way you categorized every player, which they don't, you would need to show how it compared to the other GMs in the league to be able to make a statement about how well Petrie does versus his peers. Otherwise it's the equivalent of saying a player is a bad three point shooter, because he only hits 45% of his threes, which is a bad percentage since it's not even 50%. Sure, 45% may seem like a low %, but considering it would lead the NBA most seasons, it actually shows fantastic three point shooting ability.

I would agree with that general sentiment. It would take a long time to go through every active GM's past draft history and draw some conclusions about why they succeed and why they fail. That's practically a senior thesis assignment and while I am curious about the results, I don't care enough about being right to put in that much work. Not right now anyway, but it's an idea I'll keep in mind. I'll probably do Sam Presti anyway because my recollection of past drafts is that he's the best in the league right now (though the sample size is very small).

My point wasn't to prove that Petrie is bad at the draft because he didn't draft enough star players. My point was that he's not as good as his reputation with Kings fans, many of whom tend to overrate past Kings players out of context with their status in the league or selectively remember a few very good picks. Even a complete cynic (like me ) would have to admit that he's very good at what he does. It's just that what he does is somewhat contrary to how I think a draft should be run.

The point of the draft isn't to find the best player for your team next year, it's to find the best player available to you period. So while I agree with you that no GM in the league is going to consistently find star players in the draft, I think a fair number of them do a better job at balancing the risk/reward of individual players and betting on the riskier picks when the possible reward justifies it. And a fair number of them also do a better job of trading picks to obtain players that they think are being mis-evaluated by other teams. Petrie's draft day trade this year was a great example of how not to do it -- telegraphing the pick and then forcing a trade of questionable value.

 

[theclash4u5]

Notice how the line that says "the Kings, who pick seventh and would be elated if he fell that far" is not an actual quote from a Kings representative or any source at all. The "source close to the Kings camp" wasn't even the source of that line. That line is just speculation by the writer. The line he used from the source was with regards to Knight's decision to workout alone. Then the writer positioned the next sentence about the Kings being high on Knight--which didn't have a source to it at all--next to the first line to make it look like there was a source.

That story was written by Sam Amick....he's about as close to the Kings organization as you can get.

 

[swisshh]

Because it's Jerry Reynolds.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I would like to read that post. I did a search but all I found was your overview of Geoff's trades from 2005 to 2009 (which I still think reads like a play-by-play of a team in a slow death spiral but that has nothing to do with the current question of whether Geoff is a good drafter or not).

Actually, I may have mentioned it, but it wasn't a post here. It was really long so I put it on my personal blog. (link)

Again with Hedo, the 2000 draft is generally considered to be one of the worst in NBA history. Even if Hedo was the best player from the draft (I'm guessing you used Win Shares to say that he is) that doesn't make him any more than an average NBA starter. He was primarily a bench player for his first 5 seasons, peaked as a starter at age 28/29, and seems to now be in decline. But win shares aside, I think Michael Redd clearly had the best career of anyone from that draft and everyone passed on him, Petrie included.

Given his track record, it doesn't surprise me that Geoff was able to find the average NBA player that year where most other GMs failed.

It seems to me that that's kind of the point. Petrie is not magical. He can't put a star into a draft that doesn't have a star. But he does a pretty darn good job of getting the best talent (or very nearly so) available at his draft pick. Was Redd better than Turkoglu? Maybe. Longevity is an asset in and of itself, so in hindsight Hedo does have an edge there. But the point is that in a draft full of bleh, Petrie found one of the very few decent players.

 

[Glenn]

In response to people with poor memory:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20.../03/knight.draft/index.html?eref=twitter_feed



I am pretty sure this article has been posted on these forums. The talk was that Petrie/coaches liked Knight, but were prepared for him to go too early. The Maloofs were really into Jimmer. It is only retro-actively that the word is that everyone loved Jimmer.

As for myself, I'm okay with Jimmer. I'm just not okay with the continued schlock from the FO. I am not okay with the trade and I despise being lied to again by the Maloofs' PR hunchlings. It's embarrassing as a fan to root for a franchise that is doing these things.

Then don't. Good grief man, get a grip on yourself. This is a ****ing game! Get some perspective on life!

 

[Glenn]

hrdboild, yes, I over rate the Kings players. Yes, I over rate the FO. Yes, I over rate our announders. I'm a ****ing fan. What would you have me do? I'm a fan and not a robot or computer. Do you yell at games? Do you yell louder for the Kings players or the opponents? I yell for the Kings even thought the opposition may be better. This is not the greatest of analogies but I am tired of the constant bickering about nonesense. If you can find a better analogy, GREAT! Find it.

Thank goodness NASCAR is on.

 

[swisshh]

Then don't. Good grief man, get a grip on yourself. This is a ****ing game! Get some perspective on life!

what the hell are you talking about

Are we not allowed to voice complaints about the team?

 

[hrdboild]

Glenn, I'm sorry if you got the impression I was attacking you directly. We're all fans. Being irrational about it from time to time is what we do. It's been a particularly frustrating season to follow many other frustrating seasons. There was a point when I was happy with Petrie's work building the team, but he's since used up all his strikes with me. Ultimately I want the same thing as every other fan, a winning team to root for. Hopefully we can disagree on how to get there and still remain fans together.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

The point of the draft isn't to find the best player for your team next year, it's to find the best player available to you period. So while I agree with you that no GM in the league is going to consistently find star players in the draft, I think a fair number of them do a better job at balancing the risk/reward of individual players and betting on the riskier picks when the possible reward justifies it. And a fair number of them also do a better job of trading picks to obtain players that they think are being mis-evaluated by other teams. Petrie's draft day trade this year was a great example of how not to do it -- telegraphing the pick and then forcing a trade of questionable value.

Who? How? I mean this is where I am saying you need to show your work and give it context. I'm not talking about your aforementioned senior thesis. But right now this is kind of a strawman argument. Name several GMs who are doing a better job and we can certainly discuss.

 

[Glenn]

what the hell are you talking about

Are we not allowed to voice complaints about the team?

Of course. We all voice complaints. Perspective is nice. I suppose I could get picky and say that complaining about the FO, in fact being embarrassed by them is OK, also. I don't care about the FO especially in the last several years. They have gotten us Tyreke, Cousins, and Thornton and I personally am of the opinion that the latest additons improve us also. To be embarrassed by a FO that is making this team better seems a bit odd. And of course, there is nothing wrong with being odd. As long as we are all Kings fans, anything goes, I suppose.

I was reacting to this:

It's embarrassing as a fan to root for a franchise that is doing these things.

I personally am not embarrassed rooting for this team no matter what.

 

[Glenn]

Glenn, I'm sorry if you got the impression I was attacking you directly. We're all fans. Being irrational about it from time to time is what we do. It's been a particularly frustrating season to follow many other frustrating seasons. There was a point when I was happy with Petrie's work building the team, but he's since used up all his strikes with me. Ultimately I want the same thing as every other fan, a winning team to root for. Hopefully we can disagree on how to get there and still remain fans together.

The latest Petrie moves have landed us Tyreke, Cousins, Thornton and yesterday's flurry of activity. I have no complaints if we resign Thornton and Daly, I'm really not sure what more this FO office could do. If there is something they could have done, let me know amd tell me why you are so sure that what they have done is wrong. Match what they have done wrong against what they have done right.

I'd rather we had Michael Jordan and I think Kareem would be a decent substitute for Daly but we didn't get them. Nobody's perfect and having imperfect people conduct business that inherently involves a whole lot of intelligent guessing means that neither the FO, anyone reading this, nor I have complete control of who is available, etc. We also can't control their development nor their personal lives.

I'm just worn out by the complaining about a team that is moving up and moving up rapidly assuming the end of last season is a harbringer of things to come. I'll stay away for awhile.