I do take your point about not dismissing a player simply based on height. It appears I am failing to get my ideas across clearly. I do not dismiss players based on their height. I'm not trying to say "look, here is the cut off--if you're over 6'5 and consider yourself a point guard, then get out of the gym! " What I am trying to say is look at which guys have succeeded and which have not. Why? Do lottery selected big points wash out more often than their smaller contemporaries? I haven't done a detailed statistical analysis, so I certainly don't know for sure, but it does seem that way. There could be any number of reasons; one of which might be teams becoming infatuated with the size and handle (or other positive qualities) of a guy, and therefore becoming blinded to other holes in his game.
The point that if a bigger guard has the vision, athleticism, and skills necessary to play point guard, then they will be good, is tautological. Of course I agree with that. I just think the combination of skills that make a player a point guard become progressively less common as players get taller.
As for the bolded-- I think you are moving the goal posts here. Kobe, Lebron, or McGrady may be primary ball handlers, but that does not mean they are point guards IMO. I think to name them as such is to dilute the term 'point guard'. Take Hedo for example, he is a primary ball-handler for Orlando, but I think the term 'point forward' is more accurate. I suppose any definition is in a sense (if not completely) arbitrary; however, I just don't think the players you mention fulfill the core-requirements to be labeled point guards as I understand the term. This is all semantics, but whatever.
Let's hypothetically imagine a scenario where we draft Tyreke Evans. Say after 3-4 months he finds himself struggling with the burden of taking the ball up the floor, calling the plays, and defending the opposing teams point guard. Now, say we bring in a Jameer Nelson or Mo Williams to relieve some of the ball handling, defensive, and game management pressure . Evans blossoms-- he is still often the primary ball handler in the half court and becomes a 24-5-5 guy. He becomes an elite player. He has the ball in clutch situations and is a stud. Would he then a point guard? The same as if he had stayed at his previous position and flourished (or failed) as a distributor and a leader? By your definition perhaps, but not by mine.
You didn't understand my point about those players. My point was that they have the athleticism and the skills to physically do the same thing a PG does, now the roles they play are not exactly PG's, but that has to do with the mental aspect of the game, not the physical aspect. We're discussing how height (which has to do with the physical, not mental) relates to ability to project as a PG in the NBA offensively. As far as athleticism, ball handling, and ability to break guys off the dribble and get into the lane, they're all physically capable of doing that; their height doesn't prevent them from doing that, it helps them actually. Mentally is a different thing altogether though.
The point that if a bigger guard has the vision, athleticism, and skills necessary to play point guard, then they will be good, is tautological. Of course I agree with that. I just think the combination of skills that make a player a point guard become progressively less common as players get taller.
I think we're in more agreement than it appears, it is tautological but you're not coming to the same conclusion as I am in light of this agreement and that's why I keep saying it. I think that the bolded part is not a particularly relevant observation in projecting PG's to the NBA. It's not as if we're blindly picking players just based on height, we're able to see what they're physically capable of. So the rarity of tall PG's is really irrelevant if we can see he physically has what it takes to be a PG. The odds are relevant to simply picking out a random 6'6 player without looking at his game and predicting whether he can be a PG, not when actually looking at an individual player and seeing what he's physically capable of.
(this next part is not necessarily directed at you since I'm sure you already know and agree with most of this)
Now you won't find as many tall PG's is because of several reasons. PG skills are the hardest to develop in all of basketball, they take the most time to develop and rely more on innate mental accumen (seeing plays formulate and making quick decisions) and physical attributes (speed, quickness, body control, footwork, vision) than any other role in basketball. So it stands to reason that the taller the player, the harder it is to find this combination of qualities because A.) Taller players are more rare strictly from a population standpoint, so it stands to reason that you'll find less of the taller players with the more harder to develop traits. It's similar to baseball where there are a lot more hard throwing right handers than left handers, not because of any physical defficiency with lefties, but simply because throwing hard is a rarer attribute to come by and there are a lower ratio of left handers in the general population than right handers. B.)
Generally, the bigger you are, the less athletic you're likely to be. Also, like it has been pointed out already that being higher from the ground makes it harder to keep your dribble fast and lower to the ground, so that's a disadvantage but as we've seen with the examples, it doesn't preclude it from being physically possible or work-aroundable with other attributes. So since we've shown that being tall doesn't preclude the athleticism or physical skills necessary to be a PG, we don't need to say that there is a height limit to projecting PG's offensively because that's not necessarily what directly holds them back, it may be the route cause, but ultimately it will be athleticism, ball handling, passing, mental accumen, etc. C.) Generally, the bigger you are, the more likely it is at a younger age you will be taught "bigger" skills out of need for most junior high and high school teams. Now there are always exceptions to this for the lucky ones who found mentors who taught them the fundamental guard skills before anything else, and/or just naturally could do it well. Another situation is that a player grew up being PG height and learned PG skills, but had a late growth spurt and was able to retain those skills in their new body.
My bottom line is that since we've shown that height doesn't preclude physical ability to play the PG, height isn't really a
deterrent in projecting a PG to the NBA, not directly at least. It's athleticism, mentality, ball handling, passing, etc. It's just that height tends to lead to less athleticism and ball handling compared to shorter players in the general population, but if you can see with your own eyes that they have the athleticism and the ball handling despite the odds and the trends, then being tall is largely irrelevant as a
deterrent. Basically I'm saying just apply Occam's Razor here and take out the unnecessary factor.
Height actually can make up for other defficiencies like athleticism or shooting ability. It gives them better vision of the court, it gives them greater length (typically), greater leverage, and that can all lead to being more versatile as far as utilizing "bigger" skills like rebounding and posting up.
The only problem I see with height in (offensively) projecting a PG prospect going to the NBA is whether their frames will be able to withstand the amount of physical toll it takes to be a primary ball handler and chase around PG's (although that isn't absolutely necessarily, re: Magic Johnson). As we saw with Penny and Livingston, they were incredibly lanky and it led to knee injuries. However that doesn't change the fact that when they were healthy, they were physically capable of playing the PG position. It also doesn't change the fact that so many big players with guard skills and athleticism have been physically capable of handling the primary ball handler/creator roles without a higher propensity for injury. That also applies to defense as well, even if you're a tall PG and have the athleticism to guard smaller PG's, the running around on offense may be too much of a physical toll to keep your energy up defensively. Example: back in 2000 Kobe played less of a ball handling/facilitator role than he does now with the Lakers (more off-ball play back then), and he was able to very effectively guard Damon Stoudamire who is about 7-8 inches shorter than him.