and with the #1 pick in the 2009 NBA draft the Kings select...
- Thread starter RiffRaff
- Start date
New Years predictions for Risers/Fallers between now and the draft:
Risers
Jrue Holiday - I have already done longer posts about him. He is being supressed by UCLA's controlled system, Collison playing point, and Howland's desire to bring freshman along slowly so they play his system correctly. He has all the tools and the IQ, he'll be a top 5 pick.
Demar Derozen - Once talked about as a potential top 2 pick, he's seen his stock fall with a slow start (NBADraft.net and Draftexpress have him at #12). However, he still has an NBA star's body/physical traits and has been picking up his game recently. A hot second half of the season and nice combine results should put him in the top half of the lottery.
BJ Mullens - Another player who will get better as the season goes on. The combine should help him equally too. No way does big man with his physical gifts fall out of the top 10. He's the prototypical players who jumps 5 spots in the draft in the final week.
Brandon Jennings - Stock has slipped because of mediocre number in Europe. However, his team's recent coaching change should result in him getting more in minutes. So far the worst part of his game has been his outside shot, which is also one of the easies to fix parts of a person's game. Team's will remember this, especially when he is dusting other PGs in group workouts.
Drew Gordon - He's not even on the radar right now since Howland is playing 2 mediocre bigs who already know his system. However, Gordon was a big time high school prospect who has looked good and athletic when he's been on the court. He may not declare this year, but he will start getting more and more minutes as the season goes on and he will be mentioned as potential 1st round pick.
Gani Lawal - For all the reasons Bajaden mentioned. Too gifted to slip out of the lottery. Should WOW everyone at the combine.
Fallers
Thasbeet - Top 5? Really? Top 5 for a Junior with one discernable skill. His size may keep him in the lottery, but I imagine he will have a lukewarm 2nd half of the season, look mediocre against any NBA caliber big men he faces, and will get knocked out early in the Tourney again. A team would have to be nuts to take him Top 5 over a potential star player.
Chase Budinger - Currently projected as a lottery pick. Hmm, a Junior who has been shut down farily consistently in any big game who has plus athleticism but no dominant aspect to his game. I just don't see it and I don't think GMs will this summer either.
Risers
Jrue Holiday - I have already done longer posts about him. He is being supressed by UCLA's controlled system, Collison playing point, and Howland's desire to bring freshman along slowly so they play his system correctly. He has all the tools and the IQ, he'll be a top 5 pick.
Demar Derozen - Once talked about as a potential top 2 pick, he's seen his stock fall with a slow start (NBADraft.net and Draftexpress have him at #12). However, he still has an NBA star's body/physical traits and has been picking up his game recently. A hot second half of the season and nice combine results should put him in the top half of the lottery.
BJ Mullens - Another player who will get better as the season goes on. The combine should help him equally too. No way does big man with his physical gifts fall out of the top 10. He's the prototypical players who jumps 5 spots in the draft in the final week.
Brandon Jennings - Stock has slipped because of mediocre number in Europe. However, his team's recent coaching change should result in him getting more in minutes. So far the worst part of his game has been his outside shot, which is also one of the easies to fix parts of a person's game. Team's will remember this, especially when he is dusting other PGs in group workouts.
Drew Gordon - He's not even on the radar right now since Howland is playing 2 mediocre bigs who already know his system. However, Gordon was a big time high school prospect who has looked good and athletic when he's been on the court. He may not declare this year, but he will start getting more and more minutes as the season goes on and he will be mentioned as potential 1st round pick.
Gani Lawal - For all the reasons Bajaden mentioned. Too gifted to slip out of the lottery. Should WOW everyone at the combine.
Fallers
Thasbeet - Top 5? Really? Top 5 for a Junior with one discernable skill. His size may keep him in the lottery, but I imagine he will have a lukewarm 2nd half of the season, look mediocre against any NBA caliber big men he faces, and will get knocked out early in the Tourney again. A team would have to be nuts to take him Top 5 over a potential star player.
Chase Budinger - Currently projected as a lottery pick. Hmm, a Junior who has been shut down farily consistently in any big game who has plus athleticism but no dominant aspect to his game. I just don't see it and I don't think GMs will this summer either.
Except Gooden went to Kansas for three years, of course. Or are you saying that Gooden had a yearning to return to ("missed") college? 
I saw a great picture of Gordon stuffing a shot where his knees were at the shooter's shoulders more or less, so the guy can jump. I'd be a bit surprised to see him in first-round discussions this year, though, and I don't think there's a chance he declares until after his sophomore season. I'm worried that he's a bit of a tweener in the NBA, as well.
I saw a great picture of Gordon stuffing a shot where his knees were at the shooter's shoulders more or less, so the guy can jump. I'd be a bit surprised to see him in first-round discussions this year, though, and I don't think there's a chance he declares until after his sophomore season. I'm worried that he's a bit of a tweener in the NBA, as well.
Except Gooden went to Kansas for three years, of course. Or are you saying that Gooden had a yearning to return to ("missed") college?
I saw a great picture of Gordon stuffing a shot where his knees were at the shooter's shoulders more or less, so the guy can jump. I'd be a bit surprised to see him in first-round discussions this year, though, and I don't think there's a chance he declares until after his sophomore season. I'm worried that he's a bit of a tweener in the NBA, as well.
I saw a great picture of Gordon stuffing a shot where his knees were at the shooter's shoulders more or less, so the guy can jump. I'd be a bit surprised to see him in first-round discussions this year, though, and I don't think there's a chance he declares until after his sophomore season. I'm worried that he's a bit of a tweener in the NBA, as well.
I agree that he probably won't come out this year. However, I think he will come on strong as the season progresses. Much like our young bigs, he is stuck behind two mediocre veterans (Aboya and Keefe) who just know Howland's system. Gordan has been steadily seeing an increase in minutes though and is producing. He boards, blocks shots and attacks the rim well. I agree with you that he could be a dreaded tweener. However, since he is only a freshman, if he starts playing 25 minutes a game and putting up efficient numbers, I believe you'll hear talk about him as a potential, late first round pick.
Agree on Thasbeet and Budinger. I wouldn't want either with the 2nd #1 we have. Disagree on Mullens. He is a loooooooooooooong way from being ready to play in the NBA. He would ride the pine for three years, then be let go, then be picked up, let go, then finally after six years in NBA he might be a player if in fact he really had a work ethic.
Yeah, Mullens is a lost puppy right now. He's a gifted athlete, but he's a long way for being ready for the NBA. Unfortunately, as I said before, the announcers of the last game I watched said he comes from a very poor family and he's definitely coming out this year. Too bad. Easy for me to say, but he needs to stay for at least one more year, if not two.
For those that didn't see the Georgetown/UConn game here's a scouting report by Draftexpres on the key players of the game:
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/College-Road-Report-UConn-a-Georgetown-3070/
I think its a fairly accurate report.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/College-Road-Report-UConn-a-Georgetown-3070/
I think its a fairly accurate report.
Monroe reminds me of Webber, except less athleticism and rebounding. Size, length, and offensive skill set he's right there with him. His high-low game in the post, with actually a better off the dribble game. His rebounding is worrisome if we're gonna take him because Spencer is obviously no great rebounder either. However defensively and offensively he covers exactly what we need from the position. It's contingent on how he does later in the season though, if he steps up as a scoring option and as a rebounder for g'town.
We will be lucky to get monroe. If we don't get him, to me, the draft offers at least two more potential can't miss future NBA players in Al-Fariq-Aminu and Courtney Fortson(arkansas). Monroe looks like a throwback, so he is obviously number one on the list. I will be unhappy with thabeet, unless we get him with the 23rd pick. I would be happy with The kings if we used that pick on Fortson. Fortson is 5'11 and has the highest Heroic IQ i have ever seen next to Michael Jordan and Larry Bird. Fortson is a can't miss NBA prospect, imho. His basketball is a little raw and he can't finish with authority, but the heroic factor is like bobby jackson in his prime, but 19 years old and a whole lot more game
I was finally able to catch up with the Georgetown/UConn game on my DVR.
And...... Greg Monroe is the second coming of Spencer Hawes!! They're virtually identical players -- somewhat quick on their feet but no hops, jump shot, passing... wow. He's definitely a solid prospect and shows some great skills for a frosh, but consider me very, very nervous about drafting someone who shows basically zero rebounding and very little shotblocking ability, and who is marginal athletically by NBA standards.
If we didn't already have his long lost twin already on the Kings in Hawes I'd be excited about possibly drafting Monroe, and he's a Petrie dream, but I seriously worry about his lack of athleticism and how that's going to limit what he can do in the NBA. I don't know.
And consider me a member in good standing of Team Thabeet. Are you people watching the same player? How can anyone say he doesn't have good hands? He blew some shots against Georgetown and made a dumb turnover, but he also caught some really tough passes and got to some difficult rebounds. Good defense starts with someone controlling the paint, and the Kings really, really need that. He is a special player defensively.
My biggest worry about Thabeet at the moment is that he doesn't seem like he's in great shape. He tires pretty quickly on the floor and slows down as half goes on. He's also going to struggle to defend mobile bigs in the NBA.
But if the choice is between yet another offensive minded softie and a 7'3" athletic shotblocking monster it's a no-brainer to me. If Thompson and Hawes are the future, offense is covered. Those guys can score points. But they're not special defensively. Thabeet is precisely the type of big the Kings need.
And...... Greg Monroe is the second coming of Spencer Hawes!! They're virtually identical players -- somewhat quick on their feet but no hops, jump shot, passing... wow. He's definitely a solid prospect and shows some great skills for a frosh, but consider me very, very nervous about drafting someone who shows basically zero rebounding and very little shotblocking ability, and who is marginal athletically by NBA standards.
If we didn't already have his long lost twin already on the Kings in Hawes I'd be excited about possibly drafting Monroe, and he's a Petrie dream, but I seriously worry about his lack of athleticism and how that's going to limit what he can do in the NBA. I don't know.
And consider me a member in good standing of Team Thabeet. Are you people watching the same player? How can anyone say he doesn't have good hands? He blew some shots against Georgetown and made a dumb turnover, but he also caught some really tough passes and got to some difficult rebounds. Good defense starts with someone controlling the paint, and the Kings really, really need that. He is a special player defensively.
My biggest worry about Thabeet at the moment is that he doesn't seem like he's in great shape. He tires pretty quickly on the floor and slows down as half goes on. He's also going to struggle to defend mobile bigs in the NBA.
But if the choice is between yet another offensive minded softie and a 7'3" athletic shotblocking monster it's a no-brainer to me. If Thompson and Hawes are the future, offense is covered. Those guys can score points. But they're not special defensively. Thabeet is precisely the type of big the Kings need.
You're right, Thabeet is the type of player that the Kings need, and have needed since Keon Clark left. But if you're a rebuilding franchise like the Kings who will hopefully have a top 5 pick, you don't draft out of need. You draft the best player available or whoever has the most potential on becoming the best player. I like Thabeet, just not with our top 5 pick, because I really don't see him becoming an all-star.
Having said that, if luck isn't on our side and we get into late-lottery territory, I may be OK with Thabeet as our choice there, depending on who's left of course.
Having said that, if luck isn't on our side and we get into late-lottery territory, I may be OK with Thabeet as our choice there, depending on who's left of course.
There aren't any sure stars in this draft. Not Griffin, not Monroe, not Harden. Griffin isn't that big, Harden's a little short for his position and may not be explosive enough, Monroe isn't that athletic. Thabeet is as close to a sure thing there is in this draft. Worst case you have a 7'3" athletic center. That's never been a bad thing. I think people are forgetting how awesome Mutombo was in his prime. If Thabeet is 75% of that he'd be worth drafting top 5 in this draft.
If we're gonna go after a shot blocking big, I'd rather walk on the wild side a bit and go after Jordan Hill rather than Thabeet, maybe I'm a Hawes homer but I'd like to keep him in the starting lineup and a Hawes/Thabeet frontcourt would to be uber-slow.
As far as Monroe goes, I love his offensive skillset and defensive ability. I worry about his lack of explosiveness but I think he has the skills, IQ, size and length to become a good scorer. If he doesn't improve his rebounding though I may jump off the bandwagon because like you said we can't afford to have two so-so rebounding bigs in the frontcourt.
As far as Monroe goes, I love his offensive skillset and defensive ability. I worry about his lack of explosiveness but I think he has the skills, IQ, size and length to become a good scorer. If he doesn't improve his rebounding though I may jump off the bandwagon because like you said we can't afford to have two so-so rebounding bigs in the frontcourt.
I would envision Thabeet coming in off the bench with Thompson and Hawes starting in a 3 big rotation. He'd come in for Hawes, Hawes would get rest and then come back in for Thompson, and you'd minimize the amount of time Hawes and Thabeet are on the floora t the same time.
I haven't seen Hill play this year, so I'd like to see his improvement, but I was never really impressed with him the last two years and I watched him play a lot. But I guess he's gotten better?
I haven't seen Hill play this year, so I'd like to see his improvement, but I was never really impressed with him the last two years and I watched him play a lot. But I guess he's gotten better?
I will agree that Monroe's rebounding, or lack there of so far, is a red flag. I don't know how much you know about Monroe, but Draftexpress touched on it a little bit in their report. In highschool and so far in college, his lack of rebounding has been attributed to lack of effort, as opposed to ability.
Lets not forget that he's a freshman.
I'm not sure where this lack of athleticism comes from. As Draftexpress stated. He's not a freakish athlete, but he's certainly not unathletic. This is the same crap I heard about Hawes, and then Thompson. I heard the same thing about Roy. I just don't know what people are looking at sometimes.
As far as Thabeet goes. If we can get him with Houston's pick, I say go for it. But a number five pick, that could be one of the biggest disastors of all time. Has he improved, yes. But he's a long way from being Mutombo. In my opinion UConn is a paper tiger. They've created their record in non conference games against teams we've never heard of. And Thabeet has created his stats agains inferior opponents.
I watched Thabeet get pushed around by some player that was 6'7" maybe, that played for Eastern Carolina something or other. He is, and I'll say it again, he is not a good rebounder. And don't be fooled by his stats. Just watch in play and you'll see what I mean. He gets his rebounds because he's 7'3" and they come right to him. That won't work in the NBA. The guy simply doesn't block out, or really fight for position.
I agree with Vlade, that I would take Hill over Thabeet in a heartbeat. Its not that I don't think Thabeet has a place in the NBA. I just don't think you take a one dimentional in the top five.
Finally, before we state that Griffin isn't that big, or that Harden looks a little undersized or whatever. Why don't we wait for the predraft camp and see what the measurements truely are. Because, in FACT, we don't know!!!!!
Lets not forget that he's a freshman.
I'm not sure where this lack of athleticism comes from. As Draftexpress stated. He's not a freakish athlete, but he's certainly not unathletic. This is the same crap I heard about Hawes, and then Thompson. I heard the same thing about Roy. I just don't know what people are looking at sometimes.
As far as Thabeet goes. If we can get him with Houston's pick, I say go for it. But a number five pick, that could be one of the biggest disastors of all time. Has he improved, yes. But he's a long way from being Mutombo. In my opinion UConn is a paper tiger. They've created their record in non conference games against teams we've never heard of. And Thabeet has created his stats agains inferior opponents.
I watched Thabeet get pushed around by some player that was 6'7" maybe, that played for Eastern Carolina something or other. He is, and I'll say it again, he is not a good rebounder. And don't be fooled by his stats. Just watch in play and you'll see what I mean. He gets his rebounds because he's 7'3" and they come right to him. That won't work in the NBA. The guy simply doesn't block out, or really fight for position.
I agree with Vlade, that I would take Hill over Thabeet in a heartbeat. Its not that I don't think Thabeet has a place in the NBA. I just don't think you take a one dimentional in the top five.
Finally, before we state that Griffin isn't that big, or that Harden looks a little undersized or whatever. Why don't we wait for the predraft camp and see what the measurements truely are. Because, in FACT, we don't know!!!!!
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Thank you for explaining this to the people who are familiar with the term "box out", but have never actually performed or witnessed a true "box out". I agree that thabeet is a NBA prospect and will be a mutumbo like player......in about 7 years. That is my clinical diagnosis of Thabeet, "Will be good in 7 years". Okay, with that being said, who wants to waste about 20 million just to waste another 20 before having an opportunity to re-sign a decent NBA player on his terms.....no thanks! I would rather not.
I think you're right about Thabeet getting pushed around, which DraftExpress attributed to having a high center of gravity. But I really disagree with you about Thabeet's rebounding. For a center, he is a strong rebounder. He's not mobile enough to be an elite rebounder, but not many centers are. But he has very good hands and can make things happen on the glass. I agree his rebounding numbers are inflated (just as Griffin's are), but don't think that will be a problem for him in the NBA.
I'd like to clarify that I'm not that down on Monroe's athleticism, except that he's not Webber-like explosive or something; it just doesn't make him as much of a sure thing as I would like. I'd say he's got the physical ability to be more like post-peak prime but pre-knee injury Webber. I agree he has the ability to be a good rebounder, if that weren't the case I'd likely not be that high on him. However I'd like to see some hunger for rebounds by the time of the draft because even freshmen who eventually become plus rebounders show hunger for rebounds. We can't settle for a PF who only averages 7-8 rebounds, we need a consistent 10rpg guy, that may be too much to ask for him but I'm interested in building for a championship team, no less. We need to make something big out of this pick one way or another, we have to make up for missed opportunities in the past. That's why I'm for going for a homerun like Monroe or Hill rather than Thabeet.
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I agree with you about the Webber comparison. Webb was one of a kind in some areas. I don't think I ever saw anyone dunk a ball faster than Webb before he lost all his explosiviness. On the other hand, Webb didn't have very good lateral movement, which was his mill stone on defense. I guess you can't have it all.
I would like to make one thing clear. I really want to like Thabeet. If he had just some of the qualities needed I would jump on his bandwagon in a second. He may eventually turn into a real defensive force down the road, but he's a risk at this point, so I can't in good concience endorse him. Not that anyone cares what I think.
Anyone that thinks that Thabeet is a good rebounder, here's a test for you. Watch Thabeet for at least two games. Then watch Notre Dame's Harangody for two games. Then you tell me who would win the battle of rebounding between 6'8" Harangody and 7'3" Thabeet.
I would like to make one thing clear. I really want to like Thabeet. If he had just some of the qualities needed I would jump on his bandwagon in a second. He may eventually turn into a real defensive force down the road, but he's a risk at this point, so I can't in good concience endorse him. Not that anyone cares what I think.
Anyone that thinks that Thabeet is a good rebounder, here's a test for you. Watch Thabeet for at least two games. Then watch Notre Dame's Harangody for two games. Then you tell me who would win the battle of rebounding between 6'8" Harangody and 7'3" Thabeet.
I will give you this. Everything thats wrong about Thabeets rebounding is correctable. Now whether that will happen, remains to be seen. He doesn't appear to like contact. That may have something to do with his center of gravity. I suspose thats possible. Right now, Griffin is a more physical rebounder than Thabeet, enflated or not. Griffin blocks out and fights for position.
Sometimes I think that Thabeet had become so accustomed to being able to grab rebounds because of his size, that it just hasn't sunk in yet, that his size, while important, won't cover for lack of fundamentals at the next level.
Sometimes I think that Thabeet had become so accustomed to being able to grab rebounds because of his size, that it just hasn't sunk in yet, that his size, while important, won't cover for lack of fundamentals at the next level.
I actually haven't seen Mullens play much. So I can't really agree or disagree intellegently. Although, my list wasn't so much predictions of who would be successful NBA players as who would rise on the draft boards between now and the draft. Mocks have had Mullens dropping pretty late in the lottery. But I have to believe he puts up better second half stats and his combine measurements should be amazing. Heck, even in group work outs he will probably look better playing 1 on 1 than 5 on 5. I just have to believe that some GM will reach on a player with his size, body and athleticism.
As for CB and Thas. I definitley do not want either with our first pick (assuming we are 1-7 range). I wouldn't mind gambling on Thasbeet with our second pick. Worst case he gives us a shotblocker that we haven't had since Keon Clark left. CB, I would not want to spend a first round pick on period.
As for CB and Thas. I definitley do not want either with our first pick (assuming we are 1-7 range). I wouldn't mind gambling on Thasbeet with our second pick. Worst case he gives us a shotblocker that we haven't had since Keon Clark left. CB, I would not want to spend a first round pick on period.
