He's projecting rookie seasons. That's not overall ratings of players and how they project for their careers.
Yeah I know. But still, 3 or 4 of the guys he talked about were Euros drafted last year or guys injured that didn't get to play. So for Jason to be the 13th or 14th most likely ROY candidate, that's pretty decent.
I see this pick as real similar to last year when Detroit drafted Rodney Stuckey over guys like Crittenton and people were surprised and said they made a mistake. Then as soon as the summer league started, it was clear he was a baller. Stuckey was a guy who came from a smaller school, averaged real nice numbers, people questioned his competition, but ultimately he came through for Detroit in the playoffs and showed he was ready to play immediately.
Also, just because a guy can play immediately doesn't mean they don't have potential. Again, look at Stuckey. Detroit's FO is in love with the guy and thinks he can be a potential superstar. People said that Stuckey could play right away but didn't have great potential but now, everyone thinks he does have good potential. People just saw his numbers in college and said he can play, but he won't get much better. People saw him play in the NBA and how much athleticism he has, as well as his skill set and he has stuff he can and will improve on, then they see he has a lot of potential to get better still.
I think Thompson is like that too. Just because he can dribble, pass, shoot, score in the post, doesn't mean he can't get better. He has the athleticism and work ethic to improve, he's also only 21. Just because he has skills he can already use doesn't mean he can't improve. I've never gotten that logic.
I also didn't like the logic that just because Randolph needs to put on 5 million pounds, learn a post game, and get a jump shot, that he has a bunch of potential. IMO it's more like bust potential. Because he needs to gain 20 pounds before he can even play as a SF, and 40-50 before he can play as a PF. He also needs to learn to shoot and get some sort of post game. He's a bit overrated as an athlte and even though he's a good ball handler his post game/offensive moves are all awkward looking.
With Jason, he CAN play right away. He has an NBA ready body pretty much because he already weighs 240 or 250. He already has a pretty decent post game but he can improve there and he already has a good jump shot. He's a good ball handler too, and a good passer just like Randolph. He's a good rebounder who grabs rebounds outside of his area because of his height and length. He's just as tall and has just as much length as Randolph, he's a good athlete also, his movement looks more fluid. He can still improve his rebounding though as far as boxing out goes, he can still learn some of the more advanced post moves, and he can still learn more about handling the ball. His passing(while already good) and defensive knowledge can also still improve.
The only difference IMO is that Jason can play now, Randolph can't, because Jason spent a few more years in college and is ready physically. But the upside physically is the same, 6'11'' with athleticism and long arms for each player. Both can handle the ball and rebound. Randolph just isn't there physically, and his game offensively isn't advanced like Jason's is(post game/jump shot). So IMO the top potential is similar.
Another thing is if you take a guy like Randolph who is really raw, when he gains 40 pounds of muscle or whatever how do you know he won't lose some of his athleticism. He doesn't seem much more athletic, if at all, than Jason does IMO and Jason weighs 40 or 50 pounds more of muscle. How do you know he won't be LESS athletic when he gains the required weight? You don't know if he'll get the post game or jump shot Jason has.
Even though I was dissapointed we didn't get a name player, I was high on Thompson before we picked him. I remember reviewing a lot of his game film, highlights, box scores, etc. and being real impressed a month or 3 ago. I think he can be a good player. Givony had him at 14 in his final mock also, and JG at draftexpress is A LOT smarter/more accurate than that moron Ford. JG, Dick Vitale, Donnie Walsh, Don Nelson, all seemed to like Thompson. Chad Ford's analasys this morning on Mike&Mike was "the Kings gave him the kiss of death as a draft pick, they said they liked him because he blew them away in workouts". Well I don't see how that's a kiss of death, should we have picked a guy who looked awful in workouts and gave him the upside tag? I understand there ARE players with a lot of upside that went after him like Speights. But now that I'm thinking rationally I don't see why Jason who is 6'11'', very strong, and pretty athletic doesn't have the upside some of these other guys do.
He didn't go against great competition for most of the year but he completely owned Beasley. That means a lot IMO. I have faith he'll be a good player. Al Jefferson had questionable competition in high school, had a good post game already, great numbers, etc. He's turned out well. Kevin and Stuckey both stayed 3 or 4 years, both had great numbers, both played vs questionable competition, and both look like good players. I'm not sure whether LSU played anyone good this year to be honest so I'm not sure if Randolph played good competition or not either.
I think we should give JT the benefit of the doubt. He has potential and physically, mentally, he can start playing now. But he has the tools to improve on stuff also.