Yeah, that I think would be the rationale, althoguh obviously a gamble on his part.
As an aside, to the "let him walk for free" line of thought...I am not sure in the entire history of the Sacramento franchise that we have signed a single free agent as good as MIke Bibby. The only thing even close would be Vlade, and he was coming off a year where he was splitting time with Matt Geiger. If you lose him and get nothing back, then you are gambling on something happening that has never happened before, with an express elevator to hell as your punishment if you are wrong.
If this really were to happen, take the S&T as long as it does not involve Rafer and Juwan. Get Mike started on a long term deal that starts at $9mil a year and ends at $13 again when he's 34 or whatnot. Set him up with that last big contract. And then take back from the Rockets matching contracts = to 75% of that $9 mil (which is all you have to do) along with that #26 pick. All you have to do is reach $6.8mil and you are home. You get Sura's ender at $3.8, the #26 pick, and two of their young players (Head, Snyder, Spanoulis, Novak), who I think all have team options for next year (not sure if they have been exercised or not). Then you at least have something tangible, even if its not worth Mike Bibby. Maybe even swing a guy like Snyder off to a third team since we don't need him for an extra little piece or 2nd round pick. And then, you get the extra little pieces, an extra pick (or two), and still get the salary cap relief, half this summer (the difference between Mike's $13.5 and the propsed $9mil to start) and the rest next summer when all of the Houston pieces come off the books.