Potential Free agent/trade/sign tracker

That's not correct, and it's also a heck of an undersell. Carter's three-year career average reb/40 was 8.1 He had 8.1 in his freshman year, 6.2 in his sophomore year (first year at Providence) and then 9.8 his junior year. That 9.8 is absolutely silly for a guard, and 8.1 over three years is as well.

Just looking at some great guard rebounders off the top of my head in college (coincidentally all played exactly two years):
Kidd: 6.2, 7.9
Westbrook: 3.8, 4.6
Rondo: 4.5, 7.9
Magic: 7.9 (per game, mpg not available before 1979), 8.4 (per 40, mpg available)

Magic is even a special case because he's like 6'8" or 6'9". Point is, that 9.8 blows them all out of the water, and his three-year average of 8.1 is significantly better than three of the four. It's true that you can't guarantee that college rebounding will translate (I'm looking at you, Thomas Robinson) but saying that Carter had one good year of rebounding is selling all three of his years, and especially his junior year, very, very short.
I'm not the biggest fan of Per 40 numbers because it comes with the assumption that the player would be able to keep up their pace with an increased volume. Keon averaged 8.3reb per 40 in his 2 years at Alabama (5.1rpg @ 24.3mins), but I don't think anyone would say that he's been a particularly strong rebounder in the NBA.

Looking at Carter's raw numbers:
Freshman - 18.7mpg with 3.8rebs
Sophomore - 32.0mpg with 4.9rebs
Junior - 35.3mpg with 8.7rebs

My main point remains correct... his junior year was an outlier/breakout year. Those previous 2 seasons were nothing special.

Per 40 rebound numbers:

Freshman - 8.1
Sophomore - 6.2
Junior - 9.8
 
The pick was universally praised by a lot of draft dudes. Having said that, it’s not a guarantee he works out and if he doesn’t he will be a wasted pick. That’s the name of the game with drafting.

Mark Jones was on one of the radio shows and he said that he has known Devin’s game since high school and watched him play back then in Miami. He said he was busting dudes up in pro am games with a handful of nba players among them. He described him as someone that plays with force on both ends of the court. To me that is exactly what we need. Here’s to hoping it translates because those players are always valuable to competing teams.
 
The pick was universally praised by a lot of draft dudes. Having said that, it’s not a guarantee he works out and if he doesn’t he will be a wasted pick. That’s the name of the game with drafting.

Mark Jones was on one of the radio shows and he said that he has known Devin’s game since high school and watched him play back then in Miami. He said he was busting dudes up in pro am games with a handful of nba players among them. He described him as someone that plays with force on both ends of the court. To me that is exactly what we need. Here’s to hoping it translates because those players are always valuable to competing teams.
he would instantly become my favorite Kings player if he starts hounding dudes Jalen Suggs style
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
Carter is a 6'2 195lb combo guard who played 3 years of college basketball and only had 1 good year of 3pt shooting, 1 "good" year of FT shooting, and 1 good year of good rebounding....

I know he has a near 6'9 wingspan, but do people really think he's our longterm answer at SG? he is not playing SF at his size....

draft pick has always made 0 sense to me unless he turns out to be an absolute star. still feels like a wasted pick. he's about to be a 23-year-old rookie who just came off a major surgery on a team where Keon gets DNPd... does he even see minutes on this team? should be a firable offense by Monte considering we could've just packed up that draft pick and unlock us from the Kevin Huerter pick protection fiasco that limits our trading capacity if we were just going to throw away the pick anyways on an older player who would be an extreme disappointment if he's not contributing day 1. because if he's not giving us anything, then why did we even draft him? he's not a 19-year-old kid with sky high potential. this roster construction makes no sense.
Firstly, because I can't resist, Monte is sure racking up "firable" offenses awfully quick for a guy who has been an NBA GM for just over 4 years and already has an Executive of the Year award.

Secondly, Keon only got a DNP-CD last night for locker-room reasons which only he and Mike Brown know the precise details of. He's still in the rotation and probably will play in the next game.

But seriously though... calling somebody a waste of a pick before they play a single minute in the NBA is really putting the entire wagon train in front of the horse is it not? According to the Combine athletic testing Devin Carter has a 42" vertical, a longer wingspan than Kevin Huerter, and the fastest 3/4 court sprint time in the entire 25 year database of results posted on NBA.com. And that's just the draft nerd stuff. His game tape is even better. He had a case for being the best prospect in the 2024 draft. It's really just his age and height which pushed him out of the top 5.

The not so hidden value of first round picks is that they sign 4 year contracts for a lot less than market value. Which means Carter doesn't even have to be dramatically better than Kevin Huerter to earn his spot in the rotation -- he merely has to be good. The logistics of salary cap management will take care of the rest. That's why Kevin is on the trade block. Not because he's unplayable or even undervalued, but because his impending free agency and expected future salary make him an asset with a quickly approaching sell-by date.

And it should go without saying at this point that Monte is not going to use the draft to balance his roster. He's going to use trades and free agency to balance the roster and the draft to add cost-controlled talent. The Haliburton-Sabonis trade should have made that abundantly clear. I don't even think the roster is that imbalanced. Fox, Monk, Ellis, Huerter, DeRozan, Murray, and Sabonis are 7/9ths of an NBA rotation. Isaac Jones seems like he's clawing his way into being guy #8 and Carter is likely to eventually take Huerter's spot. If Monte can trade Huerter and other spare parts to get either a third rotation forward or a third rotation big we've got a balanced rotation again. Huerter spending the summer recovering from shoulder surgery and the first month of the season throwing up bricks has not helped his trade value but the NBA trade market doesn't usually heat up until a month from now anyway.
 
The only reason why I even think we need a rim protecting PF is because of Sabonis' short comings as an interior/paint/rim defender. Sabonis is a poor defender no matter how we slice and dice it. Traditionally you expect that rim protection to be coming from your center spot, but he's not one. That means we need our 4 person to pick up the slack and give us some weak side help defense. What we need is someone who can compliment Sabonis and help alleviate some of his shortcomings as a defender.

However, as you both have said, there aren't many realistic options for us at all for that perfect ideal 3&D PF who can block shots at a high level. But this is the reality of centering your team around Sabonis. That's the part where Monte has to get creative and weigh all of your options. Something will have to give. Do you try to find a PF who can help defend the perimeter, but won't give you any rim protection? Or do you find a PF who can give you rim protection, but wouldn't be able to cover the perimeter? Or do you sacrifice defense entirely for a prolific 3pt shooting PF? Or do you meet in the middle and try to find a 3pt shooting PF who gives a little bit of perimeter defense, but no rim protection? Endless combinations that Monte would need to try to key in on. I've suggested Larry Nance Jr before the season started. I've always been part of the PJ Washington fan club. Grant Williams has been a name thrown around for a while now. We've been close to trying for John Collins 2 years in a row it seems like. Precious could've been a "buy-low" candidate. Onyeka is another player. DFS would've been a SF/PF hybrid like Keegan. We flirted around trading for Lauri all summer long, but the Jazz clearly wanted more than the Kings were willing to give. My point being is that all of these players would've brought a different skillset to the table and helped fulfill 1 need or another whether it be shooting at the 4, perimeter defense, interior defense, length, size, etc.

Yes we have Keegan at "PF" but we play him all over the court/perimeter trying to guard the opposing team's best player. Keegan has been a real headache on offense, but he is the sole reason why our defense doesn't get killed. But because we need him all over the floor, it means we don't have anyone with size truly helping Sabonis in the painted area.
I agree with you that Sabonis has defensive shortcomings that can't be overlooked but I also don't know if it's the root of our defensive problems this year. Either a shot blocking 4 would have little bearing on our defense since it's open 3s that are the issue or they're running this defensive scheme to alleviate the paint defense issues and leaving wide open 3s available because of it. I don't really know why the change was made specifically.

I was on board with a bunch of those PF replacements as well but I'm not sure what could be done at this point now that we have DDR. Either you're looking for a bench 4 or you're looking to replace Keegan or DDR in the starting lineup. Replacing Keegan will not help the defense and would probably make it worse. Replacing a 22ppg+ scorer in the starting lineup would be pretty odd as well. I'm just not sure what could really be done at this point unless the Kings traded DDR for one of the guys you mentioned. But then the question remains, does that make us better? Highly doubtful. I also don't think trading DDR for a player of equal value is on the table either since he's 35.

I guess my question for you is what would you do with the roster? Lets say Collins, Washington and Williams were all available via trade this year and Huerter + whatever isn't enough to get it done. Who are you trading for them that we actually want to hold on to and whose minutes are you replacing with them? In the end, does that even make the team better on paper?
 
Firstly, because I can't resist, Monte is sure racking up "firable" offenses awfully quick for a guy who has been an NBA GM for just over 4 years and already has an Executive of the Year award.

Secondly, Keon only got a DNP-CD last night for locker-room reasons which only he and Mike Brown know the precise details of. He's still in the rotation and probably will play in the next game.

But seriously though... calling somebody a waste of a pick before they play a single minute in the NBA is really putting the entire wagon train in front of the horse is it not? According to the Combine athletic testing Devin Carter has a 42" vertical, a longer wingspan than Kevin Huerter, and the fastest 3/4 court sprint time in the entire 25 year database of results posted on NBA.com. And that's just the draft nerd stuff. His game tape is even better. He had a case for being the best prospect in the 2024 draft. It's really just his age and height which pushed him out of the top 5.

The not so hidden value of first round picks is that they sign 4 year contracts for a lot less than market value. Which means Carter doesn't even have to be dramatically better than Kevin Huerter to earn his spot in the rotation -- he merely has to be good. The logistics of salary cap management will take care of the rest. That's why Kevin is on the trade block. Not because he's unplayable or even undervalued, but because his impending free agency and expected future salary make him an asset with a quickly approaching sell-by date.

And it should go without saying at this point that Monte is not going to use the draft to balance his roster. He's going to use trades and free agency to balance the roster and the draft to add cost-controlled talent. The Haliburton-Sabonis trade should have made that abundantly clear. I don't even think the roster is that imbalanced. Fox, Monk, Ellis, Huerter, DeRozan, Murray, and Sabonis are 7/9ths of an NBA rotation. Isaac Jones seems like he's clawing his way into being guy #8 and Carter is likely to eventually take Huerter's spot. If Monte can trade Huerter and other spare parts to get either a third rotation forward or a third rotation big we've got a balanced rotation again. Huerter spending the summer recovering from shoulder surgery and the first month of the season throwing up bricks has not helped his trade value but the NBA trade market doesn't usually heat up until a month from now anyway.

It's honestly insane to me that any Kings fan dares to say "We didn't draft for need!" over BPA when we have the 2nd biggest draft blunder of all-time selecting Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic. All because Luka "wouldn't fit" with Fox and we needed a big.

We also didn't need Hali at the time (Buddy under contract, had Bogi RFA rights) and we turned him into one of the best players in Kings history in Domas. The draft is all about selecting the best talent and figuring out the rest later.

I also think Carter fill a "need". We've had 3 different starters this season at the 2 and we're only 22 games in. People might be mistaken, thinking he's a PG, but his best position is at combo guard and secondary playmaker. He has the size and the athleticism to defend either guard slot easily. And Carter's ceiling as a player (Derrick White/Jrue Holiday) cannot be a more perfect fit with our current core. So that argument falls flat too.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
It's honestly insane to me that any Kings fan dares to say "We didn't draft for need!" over BPA when we have the 2nd biggest draft blunder of all-time selecting Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic. All because Luka "wouldn't fit" with Fox and we needed a big.

We also didn't need Hali at the time (Buddy under contract, had Bogi RFA rights) and we turned him into one of the best players in Kings history in Domas. The draft is all about selecting the best talent and figuring out the rest later.

I also think Carter fill a "need". We've had 3 different starters this season at the 2 and we're only 22 games in. People might be mistaken, thinking he's a PG, but his best position is at combo guard and secondary playmaker. He has the size and the athleticism to defend either guard slot easily.
“I for one would hate having a Derrick White/Josh Hart/Bruce Brown on my roster!” -people on here apparently.

Also not sure what Keon has really done this year to warrant this angst about a potential situation where Devin steals his minutes in the rotation when (a) Devin needing a bunch of rotation minutes because he’s too damn good to keep on the bench is a good thing and (b) Mike Brown probably needs to cut De’Aaron and Deebo’s workloads already anyways so there will still be minutes for both.
 
I was thinking about our team construction this morning and wondered how many teams have 4 guys that can easily go for 20 on any given night in their starting and closing units? Didn’t take the time to go through all the teams but I’d guess not many. That’s our identity.

Now we need to surround those 4 with defense, shooting, grit and rebounding. We already have Keegan who is the most versatile defender on the team who also has a lot more to his offensive game than he has shown. We have Keon Ellis who can shoot and defend at a high level. IJ can’t be seen as a sure thing yet but the indicators are good. That leaves one spot for Carter and one spot for another gritty long defender who can shoot to round out. You play those 9 and you will win more games than you lose. Kev obviously will have a chance to thrive in a bench role and hold off Carter so we will see what happens there.
 

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
I'm hopeful Carter is an impact player. (also without poo-pooing the surgery I don't think it qualifies as "major")

When criticizing not getting a front court player this offseason, it didn't have to be with the 13th pick of the draft. It is just not getting that person AT ALL. There were many teams trading in and out of the draft this summer.
 
We still have to see what those dollar amounts are going to be. Remember, as the TV rights come in and the cap rises, so do salaries. There could be a windfall or at least more breathing room, but maybe not. Then there are things like incentives, etc. Bottom line, it's cutting it close and as a GM it would probably be safer to give yourself room in case you do need to reset. I don't think Grant at this juncture is a game changer if this team continues on it's current path which hopefully it doesn't. It just seems like adding on top of adding and hoping the talent increase gets you out of hole. If at the deadline the Kings look to be one Jerami Grant away, then maybe you look at it. I just don't think doing it to save from early season misery is a wise idea. Especially considering the Blazers were pretty dead set on getting a pick in return.
Yeah I mean I could be convinced to not trade for Grant but I just wanted to make it clear that the numbers and financials can work if we did.

I didn’t feel like this was possible before the season started because I thought Murray would get a much bigger payday, but considering he’s been ice cold to start the year with little improvement to his handle, passing, and iso game, I’m now forecasting his 2nd contract to come in at a lower value (allowing us to make a move for a larger contract player).
 
I was thinking about our team construction this morning and wondered how many teams have 4 guys that can easily go for 20 on any given night in their starting and closing units? Didn’t take the time to go through all the teams but I’d guess not many. That’s our identity.

Now we need to surround those 4 with defense, shooting, grit and rebounding. We already have Keegan who is the most versatile defender on the team who also has a lot more to his offensive game than he has shown. We have Keon Ellis who can shoot and defend at a high level. IJ can’t be seen as a sure thing yet but the indicators are good. That leaves one spot for Carter and one spot for another gritty long defender who can shoot to round out. You play those 9 and you will win more games than you lose. Kev obviously will have a chance to thrive in a bench role and hold off Carter so we will see what happens there.
This is very well said and I was thinking in a somewhat related way the past day or so. I’ve been thinking less about starting unit and bench unit and more about how much scoring we have as a team and what else we need.

I agree that we do have a lot of scoring and playmaking across those 4 guys. And I was thinking that if we add Dorian Finney-Smith and Robert Williams we’d have a very solid 9 man rotation of…
  1. De’Aaron Fox
  2. Malik Monk
  3. Keon Ellis
  4. Devin Carter
  5. DeMar DeRozan
  6. Keegan Murray
  7. Dorian Finney-Smith
  8. Domantas Sabonis
  9. Robert Williams
Sending out Huerter & Lyles for Finney-Smith & Williams works salary wise but we’ll likely have to add incentive to get those teams to bite on that package. If we can find a package that works value wise, that gives you 4 defenders around your scorers (Ellis, Carter, DFS, and Williams), 3 shooters around your scorers (Ellis, Carter, and DFS), and 1 vertical/lob threat around your scorers (Williams). That would be a very tight/strong rotation.

Also, since Williams is injury prone, it would be good to have Jones and Len around to fill in when necessary.
 
12th in the West and 5th in the Pacific division as of today... :eek:

So I have risen from the dead to give y'all a tip... :cool:

The Pacers have a surplus of Power Forwards. As recent trading partners, it might benefit both teams to see if there is interest in a swap of Kevin Huerter for Jarace Walker. Jarace is wasted on their bench because he does not have a path past Siakam, unless the Pacers decide to move off Siakam. Then use DeRozan as 6th man off the bench.

It's a shot in the dark... but hey, it should be better than 12th and 5th.

1-5: Fox - Monk - Murray - Jarace - Sabonis
6-10: Carter - Ellis - DeRozan - Lyles - Len/Robinson
 
This is very well said and I was thinking in a somewhat related way the past day or so. I’ve been thinking less about starting unit and bench unit and more about how much scoring we have as a team and what else we need.

I agree that we do have a lot of scoring and playmaking across those 4 guys. And I was thinking that if we add Dorian Finney-Smith and Robert Williams we’d have a very solid 9 man rotation of…
  1. De’Aaron Fox
  2. Malik Monk
  3. Keon Ellis
  4. Devin Carter
  5. DeMar DeRozan
  6. Keegan Murray
  7. Dorian Finney-Smith
  8. Domantas Sabonis
  9. Robert Williams
Sending out Huerter & Lyles for Finney-Smith & Williams works salary wise but we’ll likely have to add incentive to get those teams to bite on that package. If we can find a package that works value wise, that gives you 4 defenders around your scorers (Ellis, Carter, DFS, and Williams), 3 shooters around your scorers (Ellis, Carter, and DFS), and 1 vertical/lob threat around your scorers (Williams). That would be a very tight/strong rotation.

Also, since Williams is injury prone, it would be good to have Jones and Len around to fill in when necessary.
Also, instead of Robert Williams, perhaps we target Larry Nance instead. I think he’d cost less considering his age and the fact that he’s an expiring but he’s still a really good defender who can defend the PnR pretty well considering he’s pretty athletic and long for a big man. Offensively, he’d be the same lob threat that Williams is, but Williams, Nance can knock down the 3 (and is not a major injury risk).

Maybe you can get creative with the trade and do something like…

———————————

ATL GETS: Trey Lyles and 2025 SAC 1st protections removed
ATL GIVES: Larry Nance and 2nd Round Picks

———————————

BKN GETS: Kevin Huerter and 2nd Round Picks
BKN GIVES: Dorian Finney-Smith

———————————

SAC GETS: Dorian Finney-Smith and Larry Nance
SAC GIVES: Kevin Huerter, Trey Lyles, and removing protections on 2025 SAC 1st

———————————

Obviously, there’s a “disaster” risk if we miss the playoffs and our pick jumps up to the top 4, but this also could be a way to rebalance and upgrade our roster without having to give up any extra assets (since the 2025 pick may convey anyway) while also freeing up our trade flexibility since we’re ensuring the pick will convey in 2025.
 
Those two are the ones I’m most honed in on at this point. It’s probably not super likely we can get both with the assets we have but I’d be happy with one.
Yeah that’s why I was thinking we could get creative with the pick we already owe to ATL and add on top of that if needed.

I do think swapping Huerter/Lyles for DFS/Nance would low-key really help us…
  • It frees up minutes in our backcourt that can be given to Carter once he’s back. Which means all of our guard minutes are going to Fox, Monk, Ellis, and Carter. That’s a lot of athleticism and defense across those 4 with a good mix of scoring and shooting.
  • It equips us with two great big wing/forward defenders to throw at teams in Murray and DFS. I think DFS is best at PF and his teams have actually had him play some small ball C due to his combination of size, strength, length, defensive rotations, and paint defense
  • It gives us a backup C who’s is not only an athletic lob threat but is a good defender, can space the floor, and has decent size (same standing reach and wingspan as Lyles)
A 9 man rotation of…

Fox
Monk
Ellis
Carter
DeRozan
Murray
DFS
Nance
Sabonis

…is very solid and complementary. And when injuries hit, you still have guys like McLaughlin, Crowder, I. Jones, and Len to throw out there.
 
Yeah that’s why I was thinking we could get creative with the pick we already owe to ATL and add on top of that if needed.

I do think swapping Huerter/Lyles for DFS/Nance would low-key really help us…
  • It frees up minutes in our backcourt that can be given to Carter once he’s back. Which means all of our guard minutes are going to Fox, Monk, Ellis, and Carter. That’s a lot of athleticism and defense across those 4 with a good mix of scoring and shooting.
  • It equips us with two great big wing/forward defenders to throw at teams in Murray and DFS. I think DFS is best at PF and his teams have actually had him play some small ball C due to his combination of size, strength, length, defensive rotations, and paint defense
  • It gives us a backup C who’s is not only an athletic lob threat but is a good defender, can space the floor, and has decent size (same standing reach and wingspan as Lyles)
A 9 man rotation of…

Fox
Monk
Ellis
Carter
DeRozan
Murray
DFS
Nance
Sabonis

…is very solid and complementary. And when injuries hit, you still have guys like McLaughlin, Crowder, I. Jones, and Len to throw out there.
yeh if Monte can make it happen that’s a homerun. I’d imagine there are a handful of teams that could use DFS and LNJ so it will be interesting to see if we can make the best offer
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
They got a secret weapon. The Gerbil is their VP
Pretty sure Vivek and Vlade threw him so far under the bus that Vivek absolutely has forgotten the dude’s name lol

Mitch Richmond still hangs around from time to time, Vlade still has a job with the team, and hell we moved Alvin Gentry to the front office instead of straight firing him. Vivek generally seems to be friendly with the guys he fires but the Gerbil is probably permabanned from G1C
 
Shams said Miami is open to moving Butler with his preference being the two Texas teams and Golden State. Houston saying they aren’t interested in trading for a star but who knows. He is a little old for them and he has a lot of salary to match. Mavs don’t have young pieces so it would just be picks. Don’t see that. Warriors make the most sense as they can trade Kuminga and Wiggins. We really don’t need Jimmy in the west haha
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
Shams said Miami is open to moving Butler with his preference being the two Texas teams and Golden State. Houston saying they aren’t interested in trading for a star but who knows. He is a little old for them and he has a lot of salary to match. Mavs don’t have young pieces so it would just be picks. Don’t see that. Warriors make the most sense as they can trade Kuminga and Wiggins. We really don’t need Jimmy in the west haha
The thing is that I don’t think Butler makes the Warriors much better in that I don’t think Draymond is going to respond well to playing with another borderline psychotic player.

Mavs really don’t have enough to get it done unless they decide they want to move Kyrie for some reason. Houston has pieces but once again putting Butler, Dylan Brooks, and Ime Udoka together is either going to result in basketball brilliance or a complete implosion.