Following Potential *2024* Draftees

[iowamcnabb]

Did we get a TPE in the Holmes deal? Or because it put us under cap no? I know we had cap holds on players we re-signed so maybe we did.

If NJ is interested in a player at 13 and we have a TPE I wonder if we could package the pick for DFS and Cam Thomas. About 18.5 million between them from what I gather. They might win this one long term but it could provide Monk insurance and give us someone who can provide wing defense (though he's on the wrong side of 30 he still doesn't solve the shot blocking issue) so maybe you add Barnes in this deal and ask for one of their bigs.

I dunno. Depends who is actually there at 13 and if they'd sell Bridges and do a complete rebuild.

yeh as far as I know we don’t have one and if we do I don’t think it would be large enough to take them both in? Not sure. All the talk on the Nets seems to be that they are going to build around Bridges and then try to sign a big player when Simmons money comes off the books.

There are some intriguing players in the draft that could help us this year. Excited to see what Monte does

 

[The_Jamal]

The more I scout this draft, the more convinced I am that we need to just let the Hawks convey the pick. I don't really like the options for the Kings at #13.

I'm not sure who we try to target with #13? Are we looking for someone who can contribute now? Are we looking for someone who could eventually crack the starting lineup this year? Are we looking for a career 6th man? Are we looking for length and athelticism for our bench? Are we looking to swing for upside? Are we looking to stash someone in Stockton for 2-3 years? Are we drafting for need? Are we drafting for roster fit?

It's a very weak draft. We would probably be fortunate to come away with a rotational player. Seems like a lot of gamble for not a lot of payoff

Oof, absolutely not. Would be horrifyingly bad asset management. Either trade it on draft night or even better, just grab another prospect to hopefully raise the ceiling of this team.

If the pick conveyed, that's one thing. But now that we HAVE the pick, by just letting it convey is beyond silly because any picks you trade (which is why you would do this), all of a sudden becomes a lot richer because you gave up a #13 pick without giving value from it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you just trade it on draft night after we make the selection for a team? Say the Nets want Dalton Knecht and he's on the board. Couldn't we draft him and go like:

Knecht
Huerter
2027 FRP

for

Mikal?

And we aren't breaking the draft pick rule, because we're trading a player, not a draft selection?

(i know this isn't a realistic trade value wise, just asking if it's legal).

 

[iowamcnabb]

Oof, absolutely not. Would be horrifyingly bad asset management. Either trade it on draft night or even better, just grab another prospect to hopefully raise the ceiling of this team.

If the pick conveyed, that's one thing. But now that we HAVE the pick, by just letting it convey is beyond silly because any picks you trade (which is why you would do this), all of a sudden becomes a lot richer because you gave up a #13 pick without giving value from it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you just trade it on draft night after we make the selection for a team? Say the Nets want Dalton Knecht and he's on the board. Couldn't we draft him and go like:

Knecht
Huerter
2027 FRP

for

Mikal?

And we aren't breaking the draft pick rule, because we're trading a player, not a draft selection?

(i know this isn't a realistic trade value wise, just asking if it's legal).

I’m sure Monte would only do that it in a scenerio where a big trade is lined up. The issue is lots of teams have 3 first round picks to trade so I’m not sure our potential offer stands out. To me the outcome from most likely to least are:

1) we draft a win now player
2) we trade #13 and either Kev or HB for a team fitting role player
3) we trade #13, Kevin, HB and a future first for a bigger upgrade
4) pick is conveyed to Atlanta and we package a bunch of future firsts, some of which are unprotected for a big time swing.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Oof, absolutely not. Would be horrifyingly bad asset management. Either trade it on draft night or even better, just grab another prospect to hopefully raise the ceiling of this team.

If the pick conveyed, that's one thing. But now that we HAVE the pick, by just letting it convey is beyond silly because any picks you trade (which is why you would do this), all of a sudden becomes a lot richer because you gave up a #13 pick without giving value from it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you just trade it on draft night after we make the selection for a team? Say the Nets want Dalton Knecht and he's on the board. Couldn't we draft him and go like:

Knecht
Huerter
2027 FRP

for

Mikal?

And we aren't breaking the draft pick rule, because we're trading a player, not a draft selection?

(i know this isn't a realistic trade value wise, just asking if it's legal).

Yes this is legal (except we might not be able to trade 2027 because we could still wind up giving 2026 to ATL instead of 2025), but not a Stepien violation same thing we did last year with our pick and the assumption that the pick would be conveying this year.

Also if ATL wants the pick we should absolutely extract something from them. The notion that this is a bad draft because there are no surefire can't miss prospects worthy of a top 5 pick doesn't mean that 13 in this draft is worse than 20 something next year. The fact that we get to wait until we're on the clock and see who is there is both a blessing and curse in this regard unless ATL wants to give us something to make it worth our while.

I want to take the pick and either cross our fingers it is our answer at the 4 or use the pick to get our answer for this spot. Either way, it opens the door for talent we might not have access to if we're picking in the 20s.

 

[The_Jamal]

Yes this is legal (except we might not be able to trade 2027 because we could still wind up giving 2026 to ATL instead of 2025), but not a Stepien violation same thing we did last year with our pick and the assumption that the pick would be conveying this year.

Also if ATL wants the pick we should absolutely extract something from them. The notion that this is a bad draft because there are no surefire can't miss prospects worthy of a top 5 pick doesn't mean that 13 in this draft is worse than 20 something next year. The fact that we get to wait until we're on the clock and see who is there is both a blessing and curse in this regard unless ATL wants to give us something to make it worth our while.

I want to take the pick and either cross our fingers it is our answer at the 4 or use the pick to get our answer for this spot. Either way, it opens the door for talent we might not have access to if we're picking in the 20s.

So, something I've been musing over for a bit since learning we get pick 13 is what if we commit to a little mini youth reset? If you think the jump that Keon and Davion made at the end of the season is real, all of a sudden you have 3 guys you could consider upside players instead of just the one we previously thought with Keegan. Colby didn't get much of a shot with the NBA team this year, but between some huge G-League games, a great summer league and just showing flashes, he might be a guy you add into the equation too.

Now throw a lotto pick on top of them (I know, bad draft, blah blah blah). It's still a young, cost-controlled talent that gives us a potential ceiling raiser, that we thought we'd be locked out of for the foreseeable future.

Few stats to consider with Davion and Keon.

Davion was a whole new man after the all-star break. Just a completely different player:

28 Games
18.6 MPG
7.4 PPG
1.8 RPG
2.1 APG
60.6% TS
15.8% USG
41.6% from 3!!! (2.75 3PA/game). Best part here too is this stayed consistent for all 3 months. Wasn't just one bonkers shooting month and then he fell back down to earth.

120 ORtg
117 DRtg

before all-star break?
103 ORtg
121 DRtg

Absurd flip on his season. He figured out how to be a very productive/efficient offensive player and we already know that he's just an incredible defender.

Keon had a fairly similar turn where he more or less joined the rotation after the all-star break and eventually won the starting role. His splits:

24 games (18 starts)
25.0 MPG
8.2 PPG
3.5 RPG
2.0 APG
65.4% TS (!!!)
12.3% USG
45.3% from 3!! (3.9 3PA/game)

126 ORtg
109 DRtg (absurd for us historically)

A real positive for him is he got better as the season went along. He got better in April than he did in March, which is a damn good sign considering the league had tape on him and had time to actually figure out who he was as a player.

I think a huge jump next season is absolutely in the cards for these guys, but even if they stay the exact same player they were for this post-all star game stretch, they're 2 incredibly valuable defensive role players and in Keon's case, is very likely candidate to win an All-Defensive award next season.

Now enter pick 13. It's a young asset that we weren't expecting (unfortunately by missing the playoffs), but I think it's still an opportunity to take advantage of and find another guy you can potentially add to the core. We've talked about how difficult it is to add a serious talent upgrade to our current core... well? Here it is.

If I'm Monte, I keep pick 13 and I look to retool the ancillary guys into something else. Make a full push to get Monk back and make Huerter/HB/Lyles/Sasha available. If Monk walks... it's a massive massive blow, but I also don't think it ends this cores chance of competing like I did at the start of the year because of the growth of Davion/Keon

 

[206Fan]

Oof, absolutely not. Would be horrifyingly bad asset management. Either trade it on draft night or even better, just grab another prospect to hopefully raise the ceiling of this team.

If the pick conveyed, that's one thing. But now that we HAVE the pick, by just letting it convey is beyond silly because any picks you trade (which is why you would do this), all of a sudden becomes a lot richer because you gave up a #13 pick without giving value from it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you just trade it on draft night after we make the selection for a team? Say the Nets want Dalton Knecht and he's on the board. Couldn't we draft him and go like:

Knecht
Huerter
2027 FRP

for

Mikal?

And we aren't breaking the draft pick rule, because we're trading a player, not a draft selection?

(i know this isn't a realistic trade value wise, just asking if it's legal).

We are not simply giving away a draft pick to Atlanta for free. We owe them a 1st round pick no matter what (unless our franchise blows up and we never make the playoffs again).

If we don't give them this year's pick, then the Kings will not be able to trade their 2025, 2026, and 2027 1st round picks. This severely handicaps us in any potential trades if we're looking to upgrade our mediocre roster that missed the playoffs. Instead, it means we would have to trade our 1st round picks in 2028 and 2030.

Using the draft pick and then trading the player works in your hypothetical trade, but it wouldn't be enough to get Mikal. I disagree with people say it's not weak from 10-15. Don't like most of those guys at the range for the Kings.

I get the concern of not getting real value back for the draft pick, but that's the deal we unfortunately made for Kevin which seemed like a good one at the time. You didn't bring it up, but it's entirely different than using a 1st round pick to dump Richaun Holmes to open up cap flexibility.

So, something I've been musing over for a bit since learning we get pick 13 is what if we commit to a little mini youth reset? If you think the jump that Keon and Davion made at the end of the season is real, all of a sudden you have 3 guys you could consider upside players instead of just the one we previously thought with Keegan. Colby didn't get much of a shot with the NBA team this year, but between some huge G-League games, a great summer league and just showing flashes, he might be a guy you add into the equation too.

Now throw a lotto pick on top of them (I know, bad draft, blah blah blah). It's still a young, cost-controlled talent that gives us a potential ceiling raiser, that we thought we'd be locked out of for the foreseeable future.

Few stats to consider with Davion and Keon.

Davion was a whole new man after the all-star break. Just a completely different player:

28 Games
18.6 MPG
7.4 PPG
1.8 RPG
2.1 APG
60.6% TS
15.8% USG
41.6% from 3!!! (2.75 3PA/game). Best part here too is this stayed consistent for all 3 months. Wasn't just one bonkers shooting month and then he fell back down to earth.

120 ORtg
117 DRtg

before all-star break?
103 ORtg
121 DRtg

Absurd flip on his season. He figured out how to be a very productive/efficient offensive player and we already know that he's just an incredible defender.

Keon had a fairly similar turn where he more or less joined the rotation after the all-star break and eventually won the starting role. His splits:

24 games (18 starts)
25.0 MPG
8.2 PPG
3.5 RPG
2.0 APG
65.4% TS (!!!)
12.3% USG
45.3% from 3!! (3.9 3PA/game)

126 ORtg
109 DRtg (absurd for us historically)

A real positive for him is he got better as the season went along. He got better in April than he did in March, which is a damn good sign considering the league had tape on him and had time to actually figure out who he was as a player.

I think a huge jump next season is absolutely in the cards for these guys, but even if they stay the exact same player they were for this post-all star game stretch, they're 2 incredibly valuable defensive role players and in Keon's case, is very likely candidate to win an All-Defensive award next season.

Now enter pick 13. It's a young asset that we weren't expecting (unfortunately by missing the playoffs), but I think it's still an opportunity to take advantage of and find another guy you can potentially add to the core. We've talked about how difficult it is to add a serious talent upgrade to our current core... well? Here it is.

If I'm Monte, I keep pick 13 and I look to retool the ancillary guys into something else. Make a full push to get Monk back and make Huerter/HB/Lyles/Sasha available. If Monk walks... it's a massive massive blow, but I also don't think it ends this cores chance of competing like I did at the start of the year because of the growth of Davion/Keon

I'm really curious on who you think we could add at #13 that would be an impact player for this team? Especially when you talk about a core guy, I'm not really seeing it with this group. I am a fan of some of those guards, but they make no sense with Keon and Davion here.

 

[The_Jamal]

We are not simply giving away a draft pick to Atlanta for free. We owe them a 1st round pick no matter what (unless our franchise blows up and we never make the playoffs again).

If we don't give them this year's pick, then the Kings will not be able to trade their 2025, 2026, and 2027 1st round picks. This severely handicaps us in any potential trades if we're looking to upgrade our mediocre roster that missed the playoffs. Instead, it means we would have to trade our 1st round picks in 2028 and 2030.

Using the draft pick and then trading the player works in your hypothetical trade, but it wouldn't be enough to get Mikal. I disagree with people say it's not weak from 10-15. Don't like most of those guys at the range for the Kings.

I get the concern of not getting real value back for the draft pick, but that's the deal we unfortunately made for Kevin which seemed like a good one at the time. You didn't bring it up, but it's entirely different than using a 1st round pick to dump Richaun Holmes to open up cap flexibility.


I'm really curious on who you think we could add at #13 that would be an impact player for this team? Especially when you talk about a core guy, I'm not really seeing it with this group. I am a fan of some of those guards, but they make no sense with Keon and Davion here.

I've only checked out a few prospects so far in this class, but it's more so the macro thought of adding a lotto pick on a cost-controlled contract is an asset we just didn't think we'd be getting again anytime soon. Sure, it's "a bad draft", but are we assuming just nobody in this class will be good NBA players? Possible, I guess, but it's far more likely you get a few all-stars, a bevy of quality starters and a good chunk of solid role players.

And we are giving the draft pick up for free in your instance to "chase" a trade that might not be there. If we made the playoffs, we didn't have the pick. The situation is entirely different now that we missed the playoffs and now own the 13th pick. If you get rid of it, you simply have to get value in return

 

[Tetsujin]

I've only checked out a few prospects so far in this class, but it's more so the macro thought of adding a lotto pick on a cost-controlled contract is an asset we just didn't think we'd be getting again anytime soon. Sure, it's "a bad draft", but are we assuming just nobody in this class will be good NBA players? Possible, I guess, but it's far more likely you get a few all-stars, a bevy of quality starters and a good chunk of solid role players.

And we are giving the draft pick up for free in your instance to "chase" a trade that might not be there. If we made the playoffs, we didn't have the pick. The situation is entirely different now that we missed the playoffs and now own the 13th pick. If you get rid of you, you simply have to get value in return

The Tyrese draft was thought to be one of the weaker ones of the last decade and it’s still given us Ant, two different star Tyreses, and LaMelo among others along with a bunch of solid role players like McDaniels,Vassell, Bey, and Quickley. Hell, Desmond Bane was the last pick in the first round. Now, COVID-era scouting probably had a big effect on perceptions of the strength of the class and this class is probably weaker based entirely on the fact that a lot of the elite prospects reclassified up to last year’s class or missed the cut-off for this year but the point remains the same. You never know who’s going to end up a star.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

There are a few truly bad drafts in the 35+ years I've been paying attention but a lot of the time when the top of the draft busts there are gems where we are picking. There's also a few people that might be reaches on draft day where a trade down could happen that helps us roster balance. Plus the Nets are interesting as trade partners. They need some help, they have a new coach familiar with our roster, and they have players interesting to us.

But the people I am curious of:
Ron Holland - currently mocked 11 on tankathon not really on my radar but could fall if people are reaching for other players and G-League really seems to have fallen out of favor so much that they have killed the Ignite heading into next year.
Tidjane Salaun - mocked to us currently on Tankathon, seems like more of a long term prospect that won't fit immediate needs and so I don't think we'd pick him but if he panned out fits a need profile. hoping someone might reach on him knocking down someone to us.
Yves Missi - could be mobile rim protector we need but doesn't seem to have the shooting in him so probably not right fit
Tristan Da Silva - mocked 20 so possible reach at 13 (also almost 23) but I think could come in ready to play
Bobi Klintman and Ulrich Chomche - mocked in late 20s if we could secure a second pick in this "weak" draft I would like to take a flyer on one

Knowing our luck we'll win the top pick like we did the Pervis year.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1785032667370832128

 

[funkykingston]

There are a few truly bad drafts in the 35+ years I've been paying attention but a lot of the time when the top of the draft busts there are gems where we are picking. There's also a few people that might be reaches on draft day where a trade down could happen that helps us roster balance. Plus the Nets are interesting as trade partners. They need some help, they have a new coach familiar with our roster, and they have players interesting to us.

But the people I am curious of:
Ron Holland - currently mocked 11 on tankathon not really on my radar but could fall if people are reaching for other players and G-League really seems to have fallen out of favor so much that they have killed the Ignite heading into next year.
Tidjane Salaun - mocked to us currently on Tankathon, seems like more of a long term prospect that won't fit immediate needs and so I don't think we'd pick him but if he panned out fits a need profile. hoping someone might reach on him knocking down someone to us.
Yves Missi - could be mobile rim protector we need but doesn't seem to have the shooting in him so probably not right fit
Tristan Da Silva - mocked 20 so possible reach at 13 (also almost 23) but I think could come in ready to play
Bobi Klintman and Ulrich Chomche - mocked in late 20s if we could secure a second pick in this "weak" draft I would like to take a flyer on one

Knowing our luck we'll win the top pick like we did the Pervis year.

IMO Holland should be a top 5 pick in this draft just based on his athletic tools, defensive versatility and ability in transition. If his shot comes around (and based on mechanics I have more faith in his shot long term, than say Matas Buzelis') then he can be a heck of a player. He'd be a steal if he fell to the Kings.

I'm lower on Salaun than most. He's just so, SO raw, on both ends of the court. I think he'll really struggle in the GLeague, that's how far off he seems to me.

Yves Missi should be a Clint Capela type player. But how high do you draft that archetype in today's NBA?

I really like Da Silva as a 3 & D forward. I think the team would need to move on from Barnes for there to be PT for him as he's pretty strictly a PF based on his size and decent, but not great footspeed and athletic tools. I woudln't hate him at 13 but it's a bit high IMO.

I'm not a Klintman fan. I wasn't last draft cycle and he hasn't done anything this year to change my mind.

Chomche has some real appeal, but he's not going to help any NBA team next season. That's a swing on future upside. And a lot (including whether he even stays in the draft) will be determined by how he looks in the pre-draft process.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

IMO Holland should be a top 5 pick in this draft just based on his athletic tools, defensive versatility and ability in transition. If his shot comes around (and based on mechanics I have more faith in his shot long term, than say Matas Buzelis') then he can be a heck of a player. He'd be a steal if he fell to the Kings.

With a draft that doesn't seem to generate much excitement any idea why he is mocked so low?

I agree with most of the weaknesses of the other guys it's why I think I just like Da Silva who may be a reach in the current mocks but can definitely play here. Maybe we can move some guys to NJ. Maybe Jordi would like HB there?

I guess the other side of this and it will irk a lot of people on draft day is you draft Monk's replacement. I still feel like we're going to be outbid hugely and the numbers will be mind numbingly stupid.

 

[funkykingston]

With a draft that doesn't seem to generate much excitement any idea why he is mocked so low?

I agree with most of the weaknesses of the other guys it's why I think I just like Da Silva who may be a reach in the current mocks but can definitely play here. Maybe we can move some guys to NJ. Maybe Jordi would like HB there?

I guess the other side of this and it will irk a lot of people on draft day is you draft Monk's replacement. I still feel like we're going to be outbid hugely and the numbers will be mind numbingly stupid.

On Holland I'm not sure. I'm high on him, but maybe I'm wrong. I'd say maybe it's bias because he played for the Ignite, but that doesn't seem to be hurting Matas. That said, ESPN still has Risacher at their #1 prospect despite how poorly he's played lately, so I suspect that the rankings haven't been updated recently and the last time they were, there was some recency bias based on March Madness and Risacher's hot shooting at the time.

As for Monk - I really hope he stays. But Orlando or San Antonio could nab him and offer him a bunch of money. The Spurs are going to be a good team faster than people think. Whether Pop wants to coach Malik, that's a different question.

Nobody in this draft is going to replace Monk's production next year, but if a guy like Dillingham fell, or the Kings went after JaKobe Walter or Jared McCain they could help reduce the sting of losing Malik a little bit. Though if Monk goes, I think instead of looking for a sparkplug shooter/scorer, I might look at the two way game of Devin Carter. But I'd much rather have Malik stay and the Kings look for frontcourt help in the draft.

 

[iowamcnabb]

As for Monk - I really hope he stays. But Orlando or San Antonio could nab him and offer him a bunch of money. The Spurs are going to be a good team faster than people think. Whether Pop wants to coach Malik, that's a different question.

Nobody in this draft is going to replace Monk's production next year, but if a guy like Dillingham fell, or the Kings went after JaKobe Walter or Jared McCain they could help reduce the sting of losing Malik a little bit. Though if Monk goes, I think instead of looking for a sparkplug shooter/scorer, I might look at the two way game of Devin Carter. But I'd much rather have Malik stay and the Kings look for frontcourt help in the draft.

I originally thought SA would be a good fit for Monk but I don’t think they are going to spend any money this off season. They don’t have a second star on the roster and their best bet to get one is have one more developmental year and take a crack at the draft. Plus they probably want to give the kid from Ohio State another year to develop with clear playing time.

as far as replacing Monk, we will have to
“re-create him in the aggregate” to borrow a line from Moneyball (if he does leave). We can replace most of his scoring by putting one of HB/Kvon on the bench + his positional replacement. His facilitating is really good but there are more steady floor generals out there. His defense is easily upgraded. The biggest trait we would miss is his galvanizing personality and ice in the veins shot making. Devin Carter’s trajectory is hard to figure out given he only had the one good year shooting but he has the makings of a tough shot maker. I also think a Monk departure might force Keegan into shot hunting more consistently.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I think a lot of what Monk brought isn't purely measured by stats and numbers. It was chemistry with Fox, it was when the team sucked he'd have a monster dunk or great game that kept us in it and got the fans going crazy. I don't hate Kevin and think we probably have no choice but to put him in Monk's spot next year to start if Monk leaves, but I can't really say Kevin really brings the house down routinely on his good nights.

I know I sound like a broken record but why can't they have the draft a week after free agency opens up instead of the other way around?

 

[Kingster]

So, something I've been musing over for a bit since learning we get pick 13 is what if we commit to a little mini youth reset? If you think the jump that Keon and Davion made at the end of the season is real, all of a sudden you have 3 guys you could consider upside players instead of just the one we previously thought with Keegan. Colby didn't get much of a shot with the NBA team this year, but between some huge G-League games, a great summer league and just showing flashes, he might be a guy you add into the equation too.

Now throw a lotto pick on top of them (I know, bad draft, blah blah blah). It's still a young, cost-controlled talent that gives us a potential ceiling raiser, that we thought we'd be locked out of for the foreseeable future.

Few stats to consider with Davion and Keon.

Davion was a whole new man after the all-star break. Just a completely different player:

28 Games
18.6 MPG
7.4 PPG
1.8 RPG
2.1 APG
60.6% TS
15.8% USG
41.6% from 3!!! (2.75 3PA/game). Best part here too is this stayed consistent for all 3 months. Wasn't just one bonkers shooting month and then he fell back down to earth.

120 ORtg
117 DRtg

before all-star break?
103 ORtg
121 DRtg

Absurd flip on his season. He figured out how to be a very productive/efficient offensive player and we already know that he's just an incredible defender.

Keon had a fairly similar turn where he more or less joined the rotation after the all-star break and eventually won the starting role. His splits:

24 games (18 starts)
25.0 MPG
8.2 PPG
3.5 RPG
2.0 APG
65.4% TS (!!!)
12.3% USG
45.3% from 3!! (3.9 3PA/game)

126 ORtg
109 DRtg (absurd for us historically)

A real positive for him is he got better as the season went along. He got better in April than he did in March, which is a damn good sign considering the league had tape on him and had time to actually figure out who he was as a player.

I think a huge jump next season is absolutely in the cards for these guys, but even if they stay the exact same player they were for this post-all star game stretch, they're 2 incredibly valuable defensive role players and in Keon's case, is very likely candidate to win an All-Defensive award next season.

Now enter pick 13. It's a young asset that we weren't expecting (unfortunately by missing the playoffs), but I think it's still an opportunity to take advantage of and find another guy you can potentially add to the core. We've talked about how difficult it is to add a serious talent upgrade to our current core... well? Here it is.

If I'm Monte, I keep pick 13 and I look to retool the ancillary guys into something else. Make a full push to get Monk back and make Huerter/HB/Lyles/Sasha available. If Monk walks... it's a massive massive blow, but I also don't think it ends this cores chance of competing like I did at the start of the year because of the growth of Davion/Keon

I hope McNair isn't dogmatic in drafting "experienced" college players and discounting the more talented more rawer prospect. Sometimes the talented raw prospect is Kobe Bryant. He better not pass on one of those because of a "win now" mentality.

 

[funkykingston]

So, something I've been musing over for a bit since learning we get pick 13 is what if we commit to a little mini youth reset? If you think the jump that Keon and Davion made at the end of the season is real, all of a sudden you have 3 guys you could consider upside players instead of just the one we previously thought with Keegan. Colby didn't get much of a shot with the NBA team this year, but between some huge G-League games, a great summer league and just showing flashes, he might be a guy you add into the equation too.

Now throw a lotto pick on top of them (I know, bad draft, blah blah blah). It's still a young, cost-controlled talent that gives us a potential ceiling raiser, that we thought we'd be locked out of for the foreseeable future.

Few stats to consider with Davion and Keon.

Davion was a whole new man after the all-star break. Just a completely different player:

28 Games
18.6 MPG
7.4 PPG
1.8 RPG
2.1 APG
60.6% TS
15.8% USG
41.6% from 3!!! (2.75 3PA/game). Best part here too is this stayed consistent for all 3 months. Wasn't just one bonkers shooting month and then he fell back down to earth.

120 ORtg
117 DRtg

before all-star break?
103 ORtg
121 DRtg

Absurd flip on his season. He figured out how to be a very productive/efficient offensive player and we already know that he's just an incredible defender.

Keon had a fairly similar turn where he more or less joined the rotation after the all-star break and eventually won the starting role. His splits:

24 games (18 starts)
25.0 MPG
8.2 PPG
3.5 RPG
2.0 APG
65.4% TS (!!!)
12.3% USG
45.3% from 3!! (3.9 3PA/game)

126 ORtg
109 DRtg (absurd for us historically)

A real positive for him is he got better as the season went along. He got better in April than he did in March, which is a damn good sign considering the league had tape on him and had time to actually figure out who he was as a player.

I think a huge jump next season is absolutely in the cards for these guys, but even if they stay the exact same player they were for this post-all star game stretch, they're 2 incredibly valuable defensive role players and in Keon's case, is very likely candidate to win an All-Defensive award next season.

Now enter pick 13. It's a young asset that we weren't expecting (unfortunately by missing the playoffs), but I think it's still an opportunity to take advantage of and find another guy you can potentially add to the core. We've talked about how difficult it is to add a serious talent upgrade to our current core... well? Here it is.

If I'm Monte, I keep pick 13 and I look to retool the ancillary guys into something else. Make a full push to get Monk back and make Huerter/HB/Lyles/Sasha available. If Monk walks... it's a massive massive blow, but I also don't think it ends this cores chance of competing like I did at the start of the year because of the growth of Davion/Keon

This draft isn't like that of the last two years where there were some high level guys who could both help you win now AND had big upside for the future. It's weak enough that even at the top you're choosing between older prospects with a solid floor vs younger guys with a higher potential ceiling but a long way to go. There's not a lot of in between.

So yeah, at the end of the lottery McNair could target older prospects like Dalton Knecht or Tristan Da Silva or even Kyle Filipowski with the idea that they help immediately. I don't love that approach.

But if you want to swing on upside, I think you have to take Ron Holland if he falls to 13, which I don't think he will despite a lot of mocks currently slotting him in that area. JaKobe Walter and Bub Carrington are two scoring guards that I like who have upside and could help eventually replace a bit of what Malik does if he leaves in free agency.

But if you want more of a frontcourt option, I think Tyler Smith is currently too low on most mocks. I'm not sure I'd take him at 13, but he has a lot of upside. Tidjane Salaun is someone other people like a lot more than I do, but he definitely has upside. I just don't know that he'll reach it. Less long term impact because he'd play behind Domas, but Kel'el Ware is another good upside pick IMO.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

The way I look at it is if you get a guy who slots into a 6-8 spot in the rotation that's probably better than we'll do picking in the 20s assuming that even if we fail to improve next year 45-50 wins still gets you into the playoffs. And I think because next year's draft class is "good" there will be plenty of teams losing games on purpose and there will be a few teams that somehow had good runs to finish the year and leap us that just suck after imploding. So odds are this may be our highest pick for 3-5 years.

I can't really remember but when the Kings were good we didn't have much luck with the draft only Gerald Wallace (who never got to play and we lost around the time we would have needed him), Kevin Martin and if you are extremely generous Francisco Garcia, but he largely featured on garbage Kings.

We got Hedo at 16 and while there may not be a Hedo in this draft, I could live with a Jason Thompson (pick 12) level guy if we weren't trying to build a franchise around him. I sort of trust Monte will find a gem in the rough even if it's not the greatest fit like Davion isn't, hopefully he can convert into something else.

 

[SacTownKid]

Da Silva isn't a bad player, but I see someone that just kind of fits into what the Kings have already rather than helps close gaps. He'd fit right in and that could be the problem.

 

[SacTownKid]

I hope McNair isn't dogmatic in drafting "experienced" college players and discounting the more talented more rawer prospect. Sometimes the talented raw prospect is Kobe Bryant. He better not pass on one of those because of a "win now" mentality.

And if Monte is about the initial payoff then he needs to move off of them as an asset before it's too late or when they eventually kind of flatline in terms of upside sooner as most all older players do. Davion is a prime example. The value only goes down and if they get pushed out of your rotation it's DOA.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

This draft isn't like that of the last two years where there were some high level guys who could both help you win now AND had big upside for the future. It's weak enough that even at the top you're choosing between older prospects with a solid floor vs younger guys with a higher potential ceiling but a long way to go. There's not a lot of in between.

So yeah, at the end of the lottery McNair could target older prospects like Dalton Knecht or Tristan Da Silva or even Kyle Filipowski with the idea that they help immediately. I don't love that approach.

Not going to comment on everybody right now, but I think Filipowski is being sold pretty short by the mocks these days. I'm not exactly sure what it is that he's done wrong to fall down to the bottom of the lottery - he's actually not that old (20), and he's got great footwork in the post, he's a much better athlete than you'd think for his size (maybe not vertically, but as a true 7 footer you don't need THAT much vertical), has good change of direction and is both a natural jump shooter and passer. He could get a bit more tenacious on rebounding, and he's not a lockdown defender, but I don't think either is particularly a weakness. He's the kind of guy who, for the Kings, could probably step in immediately as the backup C and allow them to run basically the same offense as the starting unit. Surely he's not the defender that Len is, but it wouldn't be long before he was a much more rounded offensive player. Does he have Embiid ceiling? No. But if he can make the rebounding jump, does he have Domas ceiling? Yes, with a jumper. In a draft where everybody towards the top seems to be searching for a guy to pick, I have no idea why he doesn't just stand out.

 

[Tetsujin]

Not going to comment on everybody right now, but I think Filipowski is being sold pretty short by the mocks these days. I'm not exactly sure what it is that he's done wrong to fall down to the bottom of the lottery - he's actually not that old (20), and he's got great footwork in the post, he's a much better athlete than you'd think for his size (maybe not vertically, but as a true 7 footer you don't need THAT much vertical), has good change of direction and is both a natural jump shooter and passer. He could get a bit more tenacious on rebounding, and he's not a lockdown defender, but I don't think either is particularly a weakness. He's the kind of guy who, for the Kings, could probably step in immediately as the backup C and allow them to run basically the same offense as the starting unit. Surely he's not the defender that Len is, but it wouldn't be long before he was a much more rounded offensive player. Does he have Embiid ceiling? No. But if he can make the rebounding jump, does he have Domas ceiling? Yes, with a jumper. In a draft where everybody towards the top seems to be searching for a guy to pick, I have no idea why he doesn't just stand out.

It is really weird that a guy who was getting mocked into the lotto last year during a “stronger” draft is now getting mocked in the twenties this season in a draft that is preemptively getting called one of the weaker ones in the last couple of decades but I suppose that’s just recency bias at work.

 

[SacTownKid]

Not going to comment on everybody right now, but I think Filipowski is being sold pretty short by the mocks these days. I'm not exactly sure what it is that he's done wrong to fall down to the bottom of the lottery - he's actually not that old (20), and he's got great footwork in the post, he's a much better athlete than you'd think for his size (maybe not vertically, but as a true 7 footer you don't need THAT much vertical), has good change of direction and is both a natural jump shooter and passer. He could get a bit more tenacious on rebounding, and he's not a lockdown defender, but I don't think either is particularly a weakness. He's the kind of guy who, for the Kings, could probably step in immediately as the backup C and allow them to run basically the same offense as the starting unit. Surely he's not the defender that Len is, but it wouldn't be long before he was a much more rounded offensive player. Does he have Embiid ceiling? No. But if he can make the rebounding jump, does he have Domas ceiling? Yes, with a jumper. In a draft where everybody towards the top seems to be searching for a guy to pick, I have no idea why he doesn't just stand out.

For me it was when I saw someone compare him to Frank the Tank, and I can see it. They did acknowledge though that Frank Kaminsky had a pretty decent career for any draft pick which is true. He hovered for awhile. That's a variance with players that aren't huge, aren't great athletes, aren't super strong, and aren't that overly skilled. That said, if Filipowski had Domas' strength and showed similar ball handling he'd be number 1 in this draft but without those he's a typical bubble player who probably ends up with a better career than most in the same draft but just kind of sticks around.

 

[funkykingston]

Not going to comment on everybody right now, but I think Filipowski is being sold pretty short by the mocks these days. I'm not exactly sure what it is that he's done wrong to fall down to the bottom of the lottery - he's actually not that old (20), and he's got great footwork in the post, he's a much better athlete than you'd think for his size (maybe not vertically, but as a true 7 footer you don't need THAT much vertical), has good change of direction and is both a natural jump shooter and passer. He could get a bit more tenacious on rebounding, and he's not a lockdown defender, but I don't think either is particularly a weakness. He's the kind of guy who, for the Kings, could probably step in immediately as the backup C and allow them to run basically the same offense as the starting unit. Surely he's not the defender that Len is, but it wouldn't be long before he was a much more rounded offensive player. Does he have Embiid ceiling? No. But if he can make the rebounding jump, does he have Domas ceiling? Yes, with a jumper. In a draft where everybody towards the top seems to be searching for a guy to pick, I have no idea why he doesn't just stand out.

My main issue with Filipowski has always been that I think he's a tweener on the NBA level. He's not a rim protector or an especially strong rebounder (he's okay though his rebounding actually dipped a bit this season) and while he's a decent shooter, he's not really a stretch 4/5. In short, he's a college center that won't have the same level of success trying to score inside and will need to adjust on the next level.


His passing as a big is actually one of his best traits. He reminds me a lot of Zach Collins or Mo Wagner. And I think he'll likely carve out a similar career as a bench big.

 

[Kingster]

And if Monte is about the initial payoff then he needs to move off of them as an asset before it's too late or when they eventually kind of flatline in terms of upside sooner as most all older players do. Davion is a prime example. The value only goes down and if they get pushed out of your rotation it's DOA.

Yes. It's all about value. If other teams don't see Mitchell's value, then you keep him. If they overestimate his value, then you trade him. I don't see Monte predetermining any move or direction before he has a firm handle on where other teams want to go and what, if anything, they are willing to pay for any of the Kings' players and/or picks.

 

[206Fan]

It is really weird that a guy who was getting mocked into the lotto last year during a “stronger” draft is now getting mocked in the twenties this season in a draft that is preemptively getting called one of the weaker ones in the last couple of decades but I suppose that’s just recency bias at work.

Last year he was going to be drafted based on his potential. We’re in a copy cat league and some people thought he could be the next Sengun 2.0 with some of Lauri’s scoring. Looking at his draft profile from last year, he was a 19-year-old 7 footer who flashed a lot of offensive talent. Very comfortable with the ball in his hands and had glimpses of really good passing and possible playmaking. He wasn’t a good shooter and had shaky mechanics, but his willingness to take the 3pters paired with his 76.5% FT shooting was promising.

Because he decided to go back to Duke for another year, we now we have another year of tape to pick holes in his game. His 2nd year was ok. Maybe it was unrealistic, but I was expecting him to be more of a serious national POY candidate, but he never reached that level this year. The volume wasn’t there.

His shooting got better, but it also got worse. Went from 28.2% to 34.8% from 3pt but his FT went down from 76.5% to 67.1%. Big pendulum swings for both and he had a couple games where he completely went away from the 3pt shot. It makes you question if the 34.8% is real.

His defense did improve this year, but he was always going to be drafted high based on his offense.

I still like Filipowski as a prospect and wouldn’t mind drafting him, but he had a meh year for someone who most expected to dominate when he decided to go back for another year at Duke.

 

[SacTownKid]

Yes. It's all about value. If other teams don't see Mitchell's value, then you keep him. If they overestimate his value, then you trade him. I don't see Monte predetermining any move or direction before he has a firm handle on where other teams want to go and what, if anything, they are willing to pay for any of the Kings' players and/or picks.

The only think I do think should be a guideline always is stacking positions with lottery picks especially if they are point guards or centers that can't swing positions. It's a mistake. Monte said Fox, Hali, and Davion could work and it's looking more and more like he never actually believed that. It was horrible value when you had Fox already. Even Davion getting a fair shake as a backup has been a nightmare.

 

[sactowndog]

Yes. It's all about value. If other teams don't see Mitchell's value, then you keep him. If they overestimate his value, then you trade him. I don't see Monte predetermining any move or direction before he has a firm handle on where other teams want to go and what, if anything, they are willing to pay for any of the Kings' players and/or picks.

I think you are ignoring the challenges of trading small for Big.

 

[Kingster]

The only think I do think should be a guideline always is stacking positions with lottery picks especially if they are point guards or centers that can't swing positions. It's a mistake. Monte said Fox, Hali, and Davion could work and it's looking more and more like he never actually believed that. It was horrible value when you had Fox already. Even Davion getting a fair shake as a backup has been a nightmare.

Well, he hasn't had a bust so far, so I'd consider that a positive. And "work" can mean that an asset is traded for another asset that is more complementary.

 

[SacTownKid]

Well, he hasn't had a bust so far, so I'd consider that a positive. And "work" can mean that an asset is traded for another asset that is more complementary.

It's up a down by the moment in his position though. Talk to people 5 months ago and they'd be OK with practically just cutting the dude, lol. Injuries to Huerter and Monk helped him not be pushed at the end of the year as the team was forced to get bigger. There's no way that Brown would have been able to roll with that Fox, Monk, Ellis, and Davion foursome considering the teams the Kings were facing and with the way Ellis played Davion would likely have been the odd man out again. If Monte comes back with Fox, Huerter, Monk, Davion, and Ellis there will be issues. Bet on it.