The 2024 Playoff Chase Thread
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
Friday western playoff/play in contenders matches:
Thunder at Raptors
Pelicans at Heat (b2b without Ingram against Heat that wants to avoid play in and finish 6th)
Timberwolves vs Cavs (still no Donovan Mitchell)
Warriors vs Pacers
Clippers at Blazers
Lakers vs Sixers
Not any of them matters that much to Kings, realistically we can catch only Pelicans or Clippers. The Suns play on Saturday at San Antonio (the same day we face the Magic) while the Mavs don't have any games till Monday night at Utah, and then playing at Sacramento on Tuesday.
Thunder at Raptors
Pelicans at Heat (b2b without Ingram against Heat that wants to avoid play in and finish 6th)
Timberwolves vs Cavs (still no Donovan Mitchell)
Warriors vs Pacers
Clippers at Blazers
Lakers vs Sixers
Not any of them matters that much to Kings, realistically we can catch only Pelicans or Clippers. The Suns play on Saturday at San Antonio (the same day we face the Magic) while the Mavs don't have any games till Monday night at Utah, and then playing at Sacramento on Tuesday.
Story of the year. Legit at times look like we could take down Boston in the finals. And other times legit look like we couldn't beat Appalachian State.
To be a little fair in this one though, no Huerter/Lyles/Sasha depth is taxing for the rest of the team to have to fill in for, especially on the 2nd night of a road B-B
To be a little fair in this one though, no Huerter/Lyles/Sasha depth is taxing for the rest of the team to have to fill in for, especially on the 2nd night of a road B-B
Way too optimistic if you think we can catch the Clippers. They are 43-25 with not many games left in the season and also an easier schedule. However I could see the pelicans slipping if they are without Ingram for while. Will be keeping a close eye on the Pelicans vs heat game. There is also an outside chance if the kings slump, the lakers or warriors could catch up still (both with way easier schedule than the kings).
I just have this gut sense we are going to face the Warriors in the play in. Whether we win that one or not will determine the mood of the offseason greatly. We win that, even if we lose in the first round again, a case can be made that while we still need to add pieces, things are generally still on track.
If we lose that game - you are going to have everybody and their brother - within the Kings fandom and outside - starting to raise major questions about the composition and leadership of this team. I would not want to be Mike Brown if events play out this way.
If we lose that game - you are going to have everybody and their brother - within the Kings fandom and outside - starting to raise major questions about the composition and leadership of this team. I would not want to be Mike Brown if events play out this way.
Also Clippers won at Portland with Kris Murray having again a career high with 21 points. Portland was missing almost all starters, lost Simons as well with injury during the match.
Houston 2 wins away from the Warriors and they have 2 easy matches in theory at home while the Warriors start a trip with hard matches at first at least.
Houston 2 wins away from the Warriors and they have 2 easy matches in theory at home while the Warriors start a trip with hard matches at first at least.
I tried to watch Warriors and Lakers game... regarding the Sixers that we will face soon after returning from the trip, they play quite physical, will be a tough match. Many fouls were not called for both sides (probably due to the new "policy" in the NBA) but they also had many steals, tough defense, were going for the offensive boards and Maxey will be hard to be stopped with those floaters. Tobias was bad in offense but he killed us in Philadelphia in that first match.
The Warriors - Pacers match was extremely fast, many many shots in first 4-5 seconds of the offense for both teams, Indiana ran the floor well, had several easy fast break points because all Warriors were going for the offensive board, they got many (24!!!) but half the times they got outnumbered going back slowly to defend. Tyrese seems to be in good condition, hit a couple of crazy shots and 2 buzzer beaters at the end of 2nd and 3rd quarter (high arc 3 pointer that last one). Golden State had 109 field goal attempts and got 64 boards, still they lost shooting bricks behind the 3 point line. Next 3 matches for Golden State, @Minnesota, @Miami, @Orlando but this season somehow they have a much better record on the road (18-14) than at home (18-19), maybe they can balance it now, I wouldn't mind.
Btw do we prefer the Rockets (without "baby Jokic") in a possible play in match instead of the Warriors?
The Warriors - Pacers match was extremely fast, many many shots in first 4-5 seconds of the offense for both teams, Indiana ran the floor well, had several easy fast break points because all Warriors were going for the offensive board, they got many (24!!!) but half the times they got outnumbered going back slowly to defend. Tyrese seems to be in good condition, hit a couple of crazy shots and 2 buzzer beaters at the end of 2nd and 3rd quarter (high arc 3 pointer that last one). Golden State had 109 field goal attempts and got 64 boards, still they lost shooting bricks behind the 3 point line. Next 3 matches for Golden State, @Minnesota, @Miami, @Orlando but this season somehow they have a much better record on the road (18-14) than at home (18-19), maybe they can balance it now, I wouldn't mind.
Btw do we prefer the Rockets (without "baby Jokic") in a possible play in match instead of the Warriors?
Even though we haven’t beaten them this year, yes I prefer to play Houston. When it comes to single elimination games you don’t want to face generational talent if you can avoid it.
If we play the defense we have been playing in March and figure out how to shoot again we can hang with any team (other than Boston)
If we play the defense we have been playing in March and figure out how to shoot again we can hang with any team (other than Boston)
All I know is we can’t drop to a 9 or 10 seed. There’s no way I see us winning 2 play-in games to make the playoffs. Let’s say we drop to 9 and Lakers get the 8. Do we really think we’re going to beat the Warriors and then either the Suns or Lakers on the road? Team better start playing with some urgency
Kings need to walk the tight-rope with the 6th spot. A play-in game vs Rockets or a series vs Pelicans would be disastrous. 3/10 of winning a single Play-in game vs Rockets, and a 2/10 on a series vs Pelicans.
Key is winning combined 3/3 vs Mavs and Suns, and 3-6 or better vs the remaining teams except Pelicans. Kings beat the Mavs twice, and Mavs would need to win 7-3 or better their remaining games - doable but difficult, Suns meanwhile will have to play at an elite level with their gauntlet schedule and beat the Kings. If the Kings beat the Suns they currently have a 2 game lead in the 2nd tiebreaker (division record thanks to sweeping the Lakers). Suns would need to go 7-4 the reaminder of the their schedule (don't think it happens).
Key is winning combined 3/3 vs Mavs and Suns, and 3-6 or better vs the remaining teams except Pelicans. Kings beat the Mavs twice, and Mavs would need to win 7-3 or better their remaining games - doable but difficult, Suns meanwhile will have to play at an elite level with their gauntlet schedule and beat the Kings. If the Kings beat the Suns they currently have a 2 game lead in the 2nd tiebreaker (division record thanks to sweeping the Lakers). Suns would need to go 7-4 the reaminder of the their schedule (don't think it happens).
For fun:
Kings have 8 home games in 12 normally a good thing, but not this year.
Here's my guess on the Kings final 12:
6ers L
Mavs L
Mavs W
Jazz W
Clippers L
@Knicks W
@Celtics L
@ Nets W
@ Thunder W
Pelicans L
Suns W
Trailblazers W
7-5 => 48 wins = 6th spot
Suns?
@Spurs W
@Nuggets L
@ Thunder L
@ Pelicans W
Cavs W
T Wolves W
Pelicans L
Clippers W
@ Clippers L
@ Kings L
@ T Wolves L
5-6 => 47 Wins = 8th spot (Play-In)
Mavs?
@ Jazz W
@ Kings W
@ Kings L
@ Rockets L
@ Warriors L
Hawks W
Warriors W
Rockets L
@ Hornets W
@ Heat W
Pistons W
@ Thunder L
7-5 => 48 wins 7th spot (Play-in; Kings win tiebreaker)
Lakers?
Pacers W
@Bucks L
@Grizz W
@pacers L
@ Nets L
@ Raptors W
@ Wizards W
Cavs W
T Wolves L
Warriors L
@Grizzlies L
@Pelicans W
6-6 => 44-wins 10th spot (Play-in; lose 2nd tiebreaker with Rockets)
Warriors?
@ TWolves L
@ Heat W
@ Magic L
@ Hornets W
@ Spurs W
Mavericks W
@ Rockets L
@ Mavs L
Jazz L
@ Lakers W
@ Blazers W
Pelicans L
Jazz W
7-6 => 43 wins OUT
Rockets?
Blazers W
@ Thunder L
@ Jazz W
Mavericks W
@ Twolves L
Warriors W
Heat W
@ Mavericks W
Magic W
@ Jazz W
@ Blazer W
@ Clippers L
9-3 => 44 wins (9th Play-in 2nd tiebreaker with Lakers)
Pelicans?
@Pistons W
Thunder L
Bucks W
Celtics L
Suns L
Magic L
Spurs W
@ Suns W
@ Blazer W
@ Kings W
@ Warriors W
Lakers L
7-5 => 50 Wins (5th)
Clippers?
Pacers W
@ 6ers W
@ Magic L
@ Hornets W
@ Kings W
Nuggets L
Jazz W
Cavs L
@Suns L
Suns W
Jazz W
Rockets W
8-4 => 52 Wins 4th
T Wolves?
Warriors W
Pistons W
@ Nuggets L
Bulls W
Rockets W
Raptos W
@ Suns L
@ Lakers W
Wizards W
@ Nuggests L
Hawks L
Suns W
8-4 => 54 Wins 3rd
Nuggets?
Grizzlies W
Suns W
T Wolves W
Cavs L
Spurs W
@ Clippers W
Hawks W
@ Jazz L
TWolves W
@ Spurs W
@ Grizzlies W
9-2 => 59 Wins 1st
Thunder
@ Bucks L
@ Pelicans W
Rockets W
Suns W
@ Knicks L
@ 6ers W
@ Celtics L
@ Pacers L
@ Hornets W
Kings L
Spurs W
Bucks W
Mavs W
8-5 => 57 wins 2nd
Play-ins Suns beat Mavs for 7th
Play-ins Rocket beat Lakers for 9th
Play0ins Mavs beat Rockets for 8th
WC Playoffs
Mavs v Nuggets - Nuggets win in 5
Suns v Thunder - Thunder win 7
Kings v TWolves - Twolves win 6
Pelicans v Clippers - Pelicans win 6
Pelicans upset Nuggets in 7
Thunder beat TWolves in 6
Thunder beat Pelicans in 6
NBA Champs Celtics beat Thunder in 6 for Finals
Kings have 8 home games in 12 normally a good thing, but not this year.
Here's my guess on the Kings final 12:
6ers L
Mavs L
Mavs W
Jazz W
Clippers L
@Knicks W
@Celtics L
@ Nets W
@ Thunder W
Pelicans L
Suns W
Trailblazers W
7-5 => 48 wins = 6th spot
Suns?
@Spurs W
@Nuggets L
@ Thunder L
@ Pelicans W
Cavs W
T Wolves W
Pelicans L
Clippers W
@ Clippers L
@ Kings L
@ T Wolves L
5-6 => 47 Wins = 8th spot (Play-In)
Mavs?
@ Jazz W
@ Kings W
@ Kings L
@ Rockets L
@ Warriors L
Hawks W
Warriors W
Rockets L
@ Hornets W
@ Heat W
Pistons W
@ Thunder L
7-5 => 48 wins 7th spot (Play-in; Kings win tiebreaker)
Lakers?
Pacers W
@Bucks L
@Grizz W
@pacers L
@ Nets L
@ Raptors W
@ Wizards W
Cavs W
T Wolves L
Warriors L
@Grizzlies L
@Pelicans W
6-6 => 44-wins 10th spot (Play-in; lose 2nd tiebreaker with Rockets)
Warriors?
@ TWolves L
@ Heat W
@ Magic L
@ Hornets W
@ Spurs W
Mavericks W
@ Rockets L
@ Mavs L
Jazz L
@ Lakers W
@ Blazers W
Pelicans L
Jazz W
7-6 => 43 wins OUT
Rockets?
Blazers W
@ Thunder L
@ Jazz W
Mavericks W
@ Twolves L
Warriors W
Heat W
@ Mavericks W
Magic W
@ Jazz W
@ Blazer W
@ Clippers L
9-3 => 44 wins (9th Play-in 2nd tiebreaker with Lakers)
Pelicans?
@Pistons W
Thunder L
Bucks W
Celtics L
Suns L
Magic L
Spurs W
@ Suns W
@ Blazer W
@ Kings W
@ Warriors W
Lakers L
7-5 => 50 Wins (5th)
Clippers?
Pacers W
@ 6ers W
@ Magic L
@ Hornets W
@ Kings W
Nuggets L
Jazz W
Cavs L
@Suns L
Suns W
Jazz W
Rockets W
8-4 => 52 Wins 4th
T Wolves?
Warriors W
Pistons W
@ Nuggets L
Bulls W
Rockets W
Raptos W
@ Suns L
@ Lakers W
Wizards W
@ Nuggests L
Hawks L
Suns W
8-4 => 54 Wins 3rd
Nuggets?
Grizzlies W
Suns W
T Wolves W
Cavs L
Spurs W
@ Clippers W
Hawks W
@ Jazz L
TWolves W
@ Spurs W
@ Grizzlies W
9-2 => 59 Wins 1st
Thunder
@ Bucks L
@ Pelicans W
Rockets W
Suns W
@ Knicks L
@ 6ers W
@ Celtics L
@ Pacers L
@ Hornets W
Kings L
Spurs W
Bucks W
Mavs W
8-5 => 57 wins 2nd
Play-ins Suns beat Mavs for 7th
Play-ins Rocket beat Lakers for 9th
Play0ins Mavs beat Rockets for 8th
WC Playoffs
Mavs v Nuggets - Nuggets win in 5
Suns v Thunder - Thunder win 7
Kings v TWolves - Twolves win 6
Pelicans v Clippers - Pelicans win 6
Pelicans upset Nuggets in 7
Thunder beat TWolves in 6
Thunder beat Pelicans in 6
NBA Champs Celtics beat Thunder in 6 for Finals
No money - complete guesswork, and will certainly turn out differently than that in multiple ways. Last (and only) time I sports bet in Las Vegas was winning a diminiutive sum on the NFL's Saints v 49ers 2012 Playoffs. My brother on the other hand has a friend in Vegas and so sporadically bets every year through his friend on Kings and 49ers games. I think he sometimes bets against the teams he likes for a "win-win"
Thunder, Clippers and Warriors were the losers of the day in the chase, Lakers (with the refs assistance, on the verge of breaking all records in free throws differential by the end of the season, 31 to 11 for their favor mid 3rd quarter, watching the match, many controversial calls and no calls, Pacers lost their challenge quite early), Pelicans, Timberwolves and probably Lakers the winners.
Rockets are just one win behind the Warriors, Clippers and Warriors in decline, the only 2 teams that don't have a positive record in their last 10 (5-5 and 6-4 respectively) even though there are no major absences, only Westbrook is missing.
Monday matches:
Rockets @ Blazers
Suns @ Spurs
Nuggets @ Grizzlies
Mavs @ Jazz
Kings vs 76ers
Clippers vs Pacers
It does seem unlikely that are closest rivals for the 6th spot will lose ground so it's a must win situation vs the 76ers. Didn't watch their match at the Clippers, but watching the one 2 nights ago at Lakers it's kind of surprise how come they scored 121 points, with Maxey, Tobias and Payne(!!!) the main offensive weapons. Maybe they will rest someone since it's b2b match but being in a chase for the 6th spot themselves probably that's not an option.
Rockets are just one win behind the Warriors, Clippers and Warriors in decline, the only 2 teams that don't have a positive record in their last 10 (5-5 and 6-4 respectively) even though there are no major absences, only Westbrook is missing.
Monday matches:
Rockets @ Blazers
Suns @ Spurs
Nuggets @ Grizzlies
Mavs @ Jazz
Kings vs 76ers
Clippers vs Pacers
It does seem unlikely that are closest rivals for the 6th spot will lose ground so it's a must win situation vs the 76ers. Didn't watch their match at the Clippers, but watching the one 2 nights ago at Lakers it's kind of surprise how come they scored 121 points, with Maxey, Tobias and Payne(!!!) the main offensive weapons. Maybe they will rest someone since it's b2b match but being in a chase for the 6th spot themselves probably that's not an option.
If we look at the standing and assume we are chasing top 6 , what do you think is better 4/5/6 ?
Don’t know why but I have the feeling that 6 with home dis advantage but against Wolves/Okc is better fit for us even then home advantage against Pelli/Clippers ?
also semi final with the winner if 2/7 place seems better in my eyes (mavs/suns wolves/okc)
We can be in position to play against teams that suited us better in the regular season till the final …
And with an eye to play Denver there haha
I have my dream scenario , what do you all think ?
Don’t know why but I have the feeling that 6 with home dis advantage but against Wolves/Okc is better fit for us even then home advantage against Pelli/Clippers ?
also semi final with the winner if 2/7 place seems better in my eyes (mavs/suns wolves/okc)
We can be in position to play against teams that suited us better in the regular season till the final …
And with an eye to play Denver there haha
I have my dream scenario , what do you all think ?
