Bulletin Board Material, 2023 Season

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
#1
Well, with training camp fully in swing, it's obviously time for the Kings Doubters to come out of the woodwork We'll start with none other than John Hollinger, who predicts the Kings to come in under their Vegas line of 44.5 wins:

https://theathletic.com/4924556/2023/10/05/nba-win-total-projections-over-under-suns-kings-thunder/

For those who can't read The Athletic, the basic complaint is: They were too healthy last year, they can't play defense.

Yeah, we've heard those. Apparently second year together as a team, second year with the reigning Coach Of The Year, losing literally zero key pieces, seeing remarkable development in a second-year #4 pick, and adding a European MVP are just chopped liver.

I don't make bets in Vegas because the house wins in the long run, but I'd bet Hollinger on this one because never letting him live it down would be worth the financial risk.
 
#2
44.5 Is pretty tight to me. But I am not a betting man either. Id like to see 50, and the old addage, win your home games, split the away games, secure a playoff spot.
Im waiting to see Keegan play regular games vs NBA players. Right now it's still just off-season talk to me. But with Keegan, Im leaning toward believing it. Just wouldn't bet on it.
Im feeling like him and Sasha are going to catch some teams off guard, if all is as good as it sounds..
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#3
Hollinger still coasting on his rep of being the guy who “invented” advanced stats in the NBA and then going and ruining the grit-n-grind Grizzlies for half a decade, I see.
 

Mr. S£im Citrus

Doryphore of KingsFans.com
Staff member
#6
Yes. He's convinced that we overachieved because we had fewer injuries than other teams, and expects our injuries to "regress to the mean" this year.
Well, the first part of that thesis doesn't sound unreasonable, but the conclusion that follows from that seems kinda stupid: what is the injury "mean" for a bunch of guys who don't have a significant injury history?
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
#7
Yes. He's convinced that we overachieved because we had fewer injuries than other teams, and expects our injuries to "regress to the mean" this year.
Or maybe the Kings are just a relatively young team that played THROUGH injuries. Keegan admitted after the season that he also played through an avulsion fracture, though not as severe as Domas. Sabonis missed only two games when many guys would have missed 20 or more.

Fox looked noticeably hurt at times. I'm sure other guys had lots of bangs and bruises.

There are definitely season ending injuries that no one can play through. But there are quite a few that really depend on how fast your body recovers and how well you can tough it out. Not to mention the teams that are relying on older and/or injury prone players (Clippers, Lakers, Suns) are more likely to be derailed for that very reason.

Also, for a team as deep as the Kings, some non-season ending/non-lingering injuries aren't the worst thing in the world. Losing Sabonis for a long stretch would be the worst case, but if Fox, or HB, or Huerter went down for a few games it just lets other guys step up and third string guys play meaningful minutes which hopefully plays dividends in the postseason.
 
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The_Jamal

Hall of Famer
#9
As far as the win total, I don't think an Under bet is all that crazy with just how tightly packed the West is. Seeding this year is mostly going to depend on health and I'd be really surprised if we see anyone really separate from the pack. If Fox or Domas go down for a month+, it'll be real difficult to hit that over on wins.
 

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
#10
Well, the first part of that thesis doesn't sound unreasonable, but the conclusion that follows from that seems kinda stupid: what is the injury "mean" for a bunch of guys who don't have a significant injury history?
I agree - without any data, I feel it is safe to surmise that injury risk increases with age. Our core players (with the exception of excellent-injury-history Barnes, 31) are all 28 or younger. The Clippers last year, on the other hand, lost about 190 games to injury from rotation players who were 29+. That's almost 2.5 rotation players out per game, and not a one of those injuries was to a spring chicken.

The expected injury mean is obviously worse for the Clippers than it is for the Kings. But I suppose that once you invent one advanced stat you don't have to worry about nuanced data for the rest of your career.
 

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#12
As far as the win total, I don't think an Under bet is all that crazy with just how tightly packed the West is. Seeding this year is mostly going to depend on health and I'd be really surprised if we see anyone really separate from the pack. If Fox or Domas go down for a month+, it'll be real difficult to hit that over on wins.
Bill Simmons was saying he thinks the top team in the West could have 51 wins. I don’t agree with Holly’s assessment, especially our perceived lack of depth, but I could see a lot of split series in the west. Basically every team got better in the West, some significantly better outside of Portland ( they could actually be better even if the record doesn’t indicate it) the Clippers (will be better if somehow healthy) and the Pelicans (better if somehow healthy)

NBA West is Blood Bath City
 

HndsmCelt

Hall of Famer
#13
Bill Simmons was saying he thinks the top team in the West could have 51 wins. I don’t agree with Holly’s assessment, especially our perceived lack of depth, but I could see a lot of split series in the west. Basically every team got better in the West, some significantly better outside of Portland ( they could actually be better even if the record doesn’t indicate it) the Clippers (will be better if somehow healthy) and the Pelicans (better if somehow healthy)

NBA West is Blood Bath City
Color me skeptical that the plethora of very talented but well aged vets equates to better teams. In most of those cases were talking about high risk high reward situations that will not all pan out. I expect to see some of the much vaunted Western teams that stocked up on these guys to spend the second half of the season positioning for the lottery.
 

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#14
I expect to see some of the much vaunted Western teams that stocked up on these guys to spend the second half of the season positioning for the lottery.
like who? The teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year were:

spurs (won’t make it)
Rockets (won’t make it)
Jazz (wont make it)
Blazers (wont make it)

that leaves teams like

Minny (super dangerous)
Clips (biggest health risk)
New Orleans (were one of the best teams in the league for 20 games or so to start the season and also second biggest injury risk)

Injuries could derail any team and those with older players are certainly at higher risk but I could see a bunch of teams in the 41-46 win range this year with a team or two separating a bit
 
#15
44.5 Is pretty tight to me. But I am not a betting man either. Id like to see 50, and the old addage, win your home games, split the away games, secure a playoff spot..
After a long offseason, you’ve forgotten this team’s M.O.

Win your ROAD games, split the home games.

In all seriousness, all they’ve really got to do is protect their home court better and they should be a legit 50-win team. We know they’ve got what it takes to win on the road. They did it quite well last season, winning 25 of them.
 
#16
Yes. He's convinced that we overachieved because we had fewer injuries than other teams, and expects our injuries to "regress to the mean" this year.
Therein lies a big flaw with relying upon statistics and advanced metrics.

Hell, those same things would have told every NFL team not to draft Tom Brady and that, after several seasons of relying upon defense and special teams to win games, he was due to regress to the mean.
 
#17
I agree - without any data, I feel it is safe to surmise that injury risk increases with age. .
Exactly why I never understood all the LAL hype the past few seasons. Aged and injury prone players headline that roster. Outside of the “bubble season“ when those guys got to rest for several months before playing again, not having to travel, and not having to face the likes of Steph, Klay, KD and others — they’ve wildly disappointed in their time in LA. Largely because of age and injuries.

But nevertheless they keep being predicted to top the conference each and every year, all while our “young” team gets dismissed for essentially the same reasoning. Go figure. Some never seem to learn.
 
#18
Basically every team got better in the West

NBA West is Blood Bath City
To the first point, this is seemingly said every season. It was certainly said at last season’s trade deadline. But rarely do all teams meet or exceed their expectations. With 15 teams in conference, about half are going to have losing records. No matter how much they seemingly improved.

Regarding the second point, I made the same point last season when comparing the East to the West and received a lot of disagreement.

My stance was, the East beyond Milwaukee, Boston, and Philly wasn’t all that strong. Whereas the West has a lot more star talent across the conference. Many of those stars missed lots of games which helped impact the standings.

I still contend that the West from top to bottom is superior to the East, and not just by a little. It’s just that, at least last season, 3 of the top 4 teams were in the East.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#20
The tricky thing to figure here is whether last year's Kings team "outperformed" expectations or if that's their new baseline. It will be at least another year until we have enough data to start to define what the expectation should be for this group. Based on Kings teams of years past, obviously they outperformed but this was a mostly new roster (Keegan, Domas, Huerter, Monk) with a new coaching staff so most of that history is irrelevant.

Injuries are always an issue in the NBA but it's kindof silly to assume that age, relative conditioning, playstyle, etc have no bearing on that and it's all a big merry-go-round that everyone falls off eventually because of bad luck. It's also possible that the Kings will be more healthy than they were last year if our All-Star big man doesn't need to play the whole year with his hand wrapped.
 

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#21
Indeed. Perhaps we should rename the "Best Shape Of His Life" portion of the offseason to the "Every Team Got Better" portion of the offseason.
which teams in the West did not get better though? I feel like it’s basically the clips and Pels but if they have any health they will be tougher. No dumpster fire teams like last year. I can’t think of an nba season with this many talented teams.
 

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
#22
which teams in the West did not get better though? I feel like it’s basically the clips and Pels but if they have any health they will be tougher. No dumpster fire teams like last year. I can’t think of an nba season with this many talented teams.
Well, my point was that every year, everybody says that like 14 of 15 teams in the West are better than the year before, and obviously that can't be true. But here, let me look:

Memphis is basically the same team as last year, except with 30-year-old Marcus Smart trying to replace 4100+ minutes of Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. He can't do that on his own, and I don't see anybody else new to help him. Besides, Ja has some interesting self-inflicted issues to deal with. Memphis is worse than last year.

Denver lost three of their top 10 in Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Bones Hyland. Green is ancient and maybe wasn't a huge loss other than holding down minutes, but Brown was huge for them. Together, that's 4200 minutes they have to replace, and I don't see anybody who looks like a real candidate unless somehow Bambi Watson is going to magically step up. A rookie Julian Strawther taken at #29 is just not sufficient. The core of the team is not that old, but unlike the Kings they've been together for a pretty long time and don't likely have a lot of gel-improvement left to find. Denver is still good, but they're worse than last year.

Dallas lost four of their top eight in Bullock, Dinwiddie, Wood, and Finney-Smith. Over 7000 minutes to replace in their rotation! Grant Williams will help, but he's one man. Seth Curry? The in-the-league, out-of-the-league Dante Exum? Richaun Holmes? And they've got to deal with the whole Kyrie Drama for the time being on top of that. If O-Max doesn't turn out to be an all-star in his rookie year (spoiler alert: he won't) Dallas is worse than last year.

Minnesota - man, following the absolute disaster that the Two Towers turned out to be last year, Rudy Gobert did everything he could to get forced out of town. He's still there. On top of that, Minnesota lost four of their top ten in D'Lo, Taurean, Austin Rivers, and a guy who is now in the Kings camp in Jaylen Nowell, for a total of about 5200 minutes they have to replace. Who's stepping up to fill that void? A 36-year old Mike Conley? Shake Milton? NA-W? Troy Brown? The Wolves are worse than last year and have internal strife on top of a mix of players that don't work together and don't like each other.

The Pelicans' biggest loss was Devonte Graham, but their biggest get was arguably...Cody Zeller? Dude barely played 200 minutes last season. So the Pelicans are the same team as last year, just hoping and praying for the health of a player who has never been healthy. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...won't get fooled again. I'm not concerned.

The already long in the tooth Warriors swapped out their youth movement (Poole, DiVincenzo, Wiseman, 3300+ minutes from Poole and Donte alone) and several more rotation players (Anthony Lamb, Ty Jerome, JaMychal Green) - about 6400 minutes in all - for the husk of Chris Paul and Gary Payton II (who gave them about 16 minutes a game after they traded for him last year). I guess there's Dario Saric and Cory Joseph, but really they've got to rely on rookies Podziemski and TJD to give them big minutes. I don't see the Warriors being better this year. Perhaps they start strong, but I doubt they have the legs to finish.

The Thunder are basically the same team as last year, with the hope of bringing in a healthy Chet and the dream of bringing in a healthy Oladipo. But a year older, they're probably a year better. So chalk up the Thunder as one team that is likely to improve.

The Lakers are the ancient duo of LeBron and AD, the surprising meteor of Austin Reaves, and a huge plate of filler. A ton of that filler has changed (all told they've lost over 10000 minutes from last year's team!), but can Taurean Prince, Christian Wood and the thus-far disappointing Cam Reddish really replace all that they've lost? Can AD play a full season? Will LeBron look not-39-years-old? I can't see them being any better.

The Clippers are largely the same team as last year (the loss of 1300 minutes of Reggie Jackson probably doesn't hurt THAT much) and Kenyon Martin Jr. is a pretty good addition, but their season still rests entirely on the health of Kawhi and PG13. Those are some loaded dice. Are they better than last year? Only if everything goes right, and there's plenty of chance it all goes wrong.

The Suns are taking a big chance this year. I thought the plan of a big-4 of Booker, Beal, Durant, and Ayton was risky enough, and then they decided to ship off Ayton to bring back a downgrade in Nurkic. The rest of the team is filler. They were a well-oiled machine with Mikal and Cam Johnson supplementing Booker, Ayton, and CP3, but now they have no true point guard, their center position is worse, and there's only one ball for Booker, Beal, and Durant to not share. This could go very, very wrong. It probably doesn't go better than last year.

Portland, San Antonio, Utah, and Houston aren't contending.

So, by my count, the Thunder (and of course, the Kings) are the only teams in the West that matter and that are definitely better than last year.
 

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#23
Well, my point was that every year, everybody says that like 14 of 15 teams in the West are better than the year before, and obviously that can't be true. But here, let me look:

Memphis is basically the same team as last year, except with 30-year-old Marcus Smart trying to replace 4100+ minutes of Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. He can't do that on his own, and I don't see anybody else new to help him. Besides, Ja has some interesting self-inflicted issues to deal with. Memphis is worse than last year. possible, but they now have 2 defensive player of the year types on their team and they have proven they can win without Ja for long stretches.

Denver lost three of their top 10 in Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Bones Hyland. Green is ancient and maybe wasn't a huge loss other than holding down minutes, but Brown was huge for them. Together, that's 4200 minutes they have to replace, and I don't see anybody who looks like a real candidate unless somehow Bambi Watson is going to magically step up. A rookie Julian Strawther taken at #29 is just not sufficient. The core of the team is not that old, but unlike the Kings they've been together for a pretty long time and don't likely have a lot of gel-improvement left to find. Denver is still good, but they're worse than last year. I agree they aren’t better but they are so good and in their prime that I don’t see a drop off from them

Dallas lost four of their top eight in Bullock, Dinwiddie, Wood, and Finney-Smith. Over 7000 minutes to replace in their rotation! Grant Williams will help, but he's one man. Seth Curry? The in-the-league, out-of-the-league Dante Exum? Richaun Holmes? And they've got to deal with the whole Kyrie Drama for the time being on top of that. If O-Max doesn't turn out to be an all-star in his rookie year (spoiler alert: he won't) Dallas is worse than last year. weird year for them last season but Luka is too good to let that happen again. If they miss the playoffs again it’s all over in Dallas.

Minnesota - man, following the absolute disaster that the Two Towers turned out to be last year, Rudy Gobert did everything he could to get forced out of town. He's still there. On top of that, Minnesota lost four of their top ten in D'Lo, Taurean, Austin Rivers, and a guy who is now in the Kings camp in Jaylen Nowell, for a total of about 5200 minutes they have to replace. Who's stepping up to fill that void? A 36-year old Mike Conley? Shake Milton? NA-W? Troy Brown? The Wolves are worse than last year and have internal strife on top of a mix of players that don't work together and don't like each other. Ant is ready for a big jump and Kat is healthy. It’s an odd mix of players but I’d bet on a better season from them even if that doesn’t result in a bunch more wins

The Pelicans' biggest loss was Devonte Graham, but their biggest get was arguably...Cody Zeller? Dude barely played 200 minutes last season. So the Pelicans are the same team as last year, just hoping and praying for the health of a player who has never been healthy. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...won't get fooled again. I'm not concerned. He hasn’t been healthy but if he is…. They also have a ton of assets to trade at the deadline and I expect they will.


The already long in the tooth Warriors swapped out their youth movement (Poole, DiVincenzo, Wiseman, 3300+ minutes from Poole and Donte alone) and several more rotation players (Anthony Lamb, Ty Jerome, JaMychal Green) - about 6400 minutes in all - for the husk of Chris Paul and Gary Payton II (who gave them about 16 minutes a game after they traded for him last year). I guess there's Dario Saric and Cory Joseph, but really they've got to rely on rookies Podziemski and TJD to give them big minutes. I don't see the Warriors being better this year. Perhaps they start strong, but I doubt they have the legs to finish. they were missing arguably their 2nd best player for 30 plus games and also thought they could just coast through the regular season and turn it on in the playoffs. I don’t think they will make the same mistake this year.

The Thunder are basically the same team as last year, with the hope of bringing in a healthy Chet and the dream of bringing in a healthy Oladipo. But a year older, they're probably a year better. So chalk up the Thunder as one team that is likely to improve.

The Lakers are the ancient duo of LeBron and AD, the surprising meteor of Austin Reaves, and a huge plate of filler. A ton of that filler has changed (all told they've lost over 10000 minutes from last year's team!), but can Taurean Prince, Christian Wood and the thus-far disappointing Cam Reddish really replace all that they've lost? Can AD play a full season? Will LeBron look not-39-years-old? I can't see them being any better. they probably won’t be better than end of the season lakers but they will most assuredly be better than beginning of the season lakers that dug themselves into that huge hole.

The Clippers are largely the same team as last year (the loss of 1300 minutes of Reggie Jackson probably doesn't hurt THAT much) and Kenyon Martin Jr. is a pretty good addition, but their season still rests entirely on the health of Kawhi and PG13. Those are some loaded dice. Are they better than last year? Only if everything goes right, and there's plenty of chance it all goes wrong.I’d agree it all comes down to health

The Suns are taking a big chance this year. I thought the plan of a big-4 of Booker, Beal, Durant, and Ayton was risky enough, and then they decided to ship off Ayton to bring back a downgrade in Nurkic. The rest of the team is filler. They were a well-oiled machine with Mikal and Cam Johnson supplementing Booker, Ayton, and CP3, but now they have no true point guard, their center position is worse, and there's only one ball for Booker, Beal, and Durant to not share. This could go very, very wrong. It probably doesn't go better than last year.it could for sure go wrong and health is a concern but Kd and Book for a whole season is not the duo anyone wants to face.

Portland, San Antonio, Utah, and Houston aren't contending.

So, by my count, the Thunder (and of course, the Kings) are the only teams in the West that matter and that are definitely better than last year. In my opinion your assessment of the West is that nothing breaks right for the these teams with question marks and my assessment is at least some of them will. If we were to meet somewhere in the middle I still think the West will be tighter than ever. The good news is if you are right, not only does it crack a window for us this season but it could mean some teams have to blow it up next season and things could potentially thin out a bit.
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#24
Another confounding factor is how to treat teams like Dallas and LA that arguably got better at last year’s deadline? Sure, you can look at their end of year roster, compare it to now, and say “hey, they’re not much better!” But to me that misses the point of the analysis. On the whole, I expect them to be better this year than last year.
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
#25
Another confounding factor is how to treat teams like Dallas and LA that arguably got better at last year’s deadline? Sure, you can look at their end of year roster, compare it to now, and say “hey, they’re not much better!” But to me that misses the point of the analysis. On the whole, I expect them to be better this year than last year.
IF they can stay healthy, then I absolutely agree. They got rid of Russ (who never fit or made sense for that roster) and brought in some nice pieces that compliment James and Davis. But they have to stay healthy.

LeBron is now the oldest player in the entire NBA. He's an athletic marvel and has worked hard and invested a ton into taking care of his body, but Father Time is still undefeated. And AD is only 29 but in the last five seasons he's played in 56, 62, 36, 40, and 56 regular season games. Odds are that he will miss another 20+ games next season.

As for Dallas, it remains to be seen. The only games I saw where both Luka and Kyrie played it wasn't so much an offensive duo as a "your turn, my turn" type thing. Both guys are very ball dominant and essentially both PGs. Their defense should be better but they have a lot of young guys. That said, Doncic looked out of sorts and out of shape last season. If he comes into camp focused and healthier, he's a legit MVP candidate. I still have questions with the Mavericks. With the Lakers the only question is how healthy their two stars will be.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#26
Another confounding factor is how to treat teams like Dallas and LA that arguably got better at last year’s deadline? Sure, you can look at their end of year roster, compare it to now, and say “hey, they’re not much better!” But to me that misses the point of the analysis. On the whole, I expect them to be better this year than last year.
I dunno, I just saw the Mavs get pulverized by the TWolves despite Luka putting up Tungsten Arm numbers last night. I know it’s just preseason but their strategy of starting two rookies alongside Luka and Kyrie doesn’t really seem like it’s going to work this season. Keeping Jason Kidd as coach certainly doesn’t help matters.

The Lakers did get better after the all-star break though. It’s how they wound up in the WCF in the first place. At the same time, they also did so on the back of AD’s healthiest stretch of basketball since the bubble. I guess you could optimistically say that Reeves is going to be the star everyone randomly decided they think he’ll be (Future Kobe Taylor Horton-Tucker says hi) and take up the slack of Lebron getting older and AD hurting himself but we also just got done seeing him get wrecked in FIBA. Plus I don’t think a team has ever made it to the postseason with Christian Wood on its roster.
 

Mr. S£im Citrus

Doryphore of KingsFans.com
Staff member
#27
Well, my point was that every year, everybody says that like 14 of 15 teams in the West are better than the year before, and obviously that can't be true. But here, let me look:

Memphis is basically the same team as last year, except with 30-year-old Marcus Smart trying to replace 4100+ minutes of Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. He can't do that on his own, and I don't see anybody else new to help him. Besides, Ja has some interesting self-inflicted issues to deal with. Memphis is worse than last year.

Denver lost three of their top 10 in Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Bones Hyland. Green is ancient and maybe wasn't a huge loss other than holding down minutes, but Brown was huge for them. Together, that's 4200 minutes they have to replace, and I don't see anybody who looks like a real candidate unless somehow Bambi Watson is going to magically step up. A rookie Julian Strawther taken at #29 is just not sufficient. The core of the team is not that old, but unlike the Kings they've been together for a pretty long time and don't likely have a lot of gel-improvement left to find. Denver is still good, but they're worse than last year.

Dallas lost four of their top eight in Bullock, Dinwiddie, Wood, and Finney-Smith. Over 7000 minutes to replace in their rotation! Grant Williams will help, but he's one man. Seth Curry? The in-the-league, out-of-the-league Dante Exum? Richaun Holmes? And they've got to deal with the whole Kyrie Drama for the time being on top of that. If O-Max doesn't turn out to be an all-star in his rookie year (spoiler alert: he won't) Dallas is worse than last year.

Minnesota - man, following the absolute disaster that the Two Towers turned out to be last year, Rudy Gobert did everything he could to get forced out of town. He's still there. On top of that, Minnesota lost four of their top ten in D'Lo, Taurean, Austin Rivers, and a guy who is now in the Kings camp in Jaylen Nowell, for a total of about 5200 minutes they have to replace. Who's stepping up to fill that void? A 36-year old Mike Conley? Shake Milton? NA-W? Troy Brown? The Wolves are worse than last year and have internal strife on top of a mix of players that don't work together and don't like each other.

The Pelicans' biggest loss was Devonte Graham, but their biggest get was arguably...Cody Zeller? Dude barely played 200 minutes last season. So the Pelicans are the same team as last year, just hoping and praying for the health of a player who has never been healthy. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...won't get fooled again. I'm not concerned.

The already long in the tooth Warriors swapped out their youth movement (Poole, DiVincenzo, Wiseman, 3300+ minutes from Poole and Donte alone) and several more rotation players (Anthony Lamb, Ty Jerome, JaMychal Green) - about 6400 minutes in all - for the husk of Chris Paul and Gary Payton II (who gave them about 16 minutes a game after they traded for him last year). I guess there's Dario Saric and Cory Joseph, but really they've got to rely on rookies Podziemski and TJD to give them big minutes. I don't see the Warriors being better this year. Perhaps they start strong, but I doubt they have the legs to finish.

The Thunder are basically the same team as last year, with the hope of bringing in a healthy Chet and the dream of bringing in a healthy Oladipo. But a year older, they're probably a year better. So chalk up the Thunder as one team that is likely to improve.

The Lakers are the ancient duo of LeBron and AD, the surprising meteor of Austin Reaves, and a huge plate of filler. A ton of that filler has changed (all told they've lost over 10000 minutes from last year's team!), but can Taurean Prince, Christian Wood and the thus-far disappointing Cam Reddish really replace all that they've lost? Can AD play a full season? Will LeBron look not-39-years-old? I can't see them being any better.

The Clippers are largely the same team as last year (the loss of 1300 minutes of Reggie Jackson probably doesn't hurt THAT much) and Kenyon Martin Jr. is a pretty good addition, but their season still rests entirely on the health of Kawhi and PG13. Those are some loaded dice. Are they better than last year? Only if everything goes right, and there's plenty of chance it all goes wrong.

The Suns are taking a big chance this year. I thought the plan of a big-4 of Booker, Beal, Durant, and Ayton was risky enough, and then they decided to ship off Ayton to bring back a downgrade in Nurkic. The rest of the team is filler. They were a well-oiled machine with Mikal and Cam Johnson supplementing Booker, Ayton, and CP3, but now they have no true point guard, their center position is worse, and there's only one ball for Booker, Beal, and Durant to not share. This could go very, very wrong. It probably doesn't go better than last year.

Portland, San Antonio, Utah, and Houston aren't contending.

So, by my count, the Thunder (and of course, the Kings) are the only teams in the West that matter and that are definitely better than last year.
I think this may be the closest thing to a homer post that I've ever seen from you.
 

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
#30
to be fair he also talked about our defensive gaps which were largely unaddressed in the off season: no wing stopper, no rim protector.
Yes, he did and I forgot to mention it, but I felt that it was maybe a bit peripheral to the overachiement argument - even though one could reasonably expect us to regress to the mean with injuries (i.e. we were lucky on injuries) I don't think there's any reason to believe we were lucky on defense. Our defense was what it was.

Obviously we did not add a wing stopper, and we were never going to add a rim protector in the starting lineup given Domas and Keegan holding down the frontcourt, though we did add JaVale and for all we know right now he may be in the rotation.